Philippine presidential election, 2010

Philippine presidential election, 2010
Philippines
May 10, 2010
Turnout 74.34% Decrease 2.0%

 
Nominee Benigno Aquino III Joseph Estrada Manny Villar
Party Liberal PMP Nacionalista
Running mate Mar Roxas Jejomar Binay Loren Legarda
Popular vote 15,208,678 9,487,837 5,573,835
Percentage 42.08% 26.25% 15.42%
 
Nominee Gilberto Teodoro Eddie Villanueva
Party Lakas-Kampi Bangon Pilipinas
Running mate Edu Manzano Perfecto Yasay
Popular vote 4,095,839 1,125,878
Percentage 11.33% 3.12%

Result according to the final congressional canvass.
President before election

Gloria Macapagal-Arroyo
Lakas-Kampi

 Elected President

Benigno Aquino III
Liberal

Philippines
This article is part of a series on the
politics and government of
the Philippines
Gloria Macapagal Arroyo, the incumbent president, whose term expired in June 30, 2010

The Philippine presidential and vice presidential elections of 2010 were held on Monday, May 10, 2010. The ruling President of the Philippines, Gloria Macapagal-Arroyo, was barred from seeking re-election by the 1987 Constitution, thus necessitating an election to select the 15th President.

Incumbent Vice-President Noli de Castro was allowed to seek re-election though he could have possibly sought the presidency. As he didn't offer himself in any manner of candidacy at the election, his successor was determined as the 13th Vice President of the Philippines. Although most presidential candidates have running mates, the president and vice president are elected separately, and the winning candidates may be of different political parties.

This election was also the first time that the Commission of Elections (COMELEC) implemented full automation of elections, pursuant to Republic Act 9369, "An act authorizing the Commission on Elections to use an Automated Election System in the May 11, 1998 National or Local Elections and in subsequent National And Local Electoral Exercises".[1]

The results of the congressional canvassing showed that Senator Benigno Aquino III of the Liberal Party won by a plurality, although he had won with the highest percentage of votes since 1986, but not enough to have the largest margin of victory, even in elections held after 1986.

Meanwhile, in the election for the vice-presidency, Makati Mayor Jejomar Binay of the Partido Demokratiko Pilipino-Lakas ng Bayan (PDP-Laban) defeated Senator Mar Roxas of the Liberal Party in the second-narrowest margin in the history of vice presidential elections. Aquino and Binay were proclaimed in a joint session of Congress on June 9, and took their oaths on June 30, 2010. Roxas filed an electoral protest to the Presidential Electoral Tribunal (PET; the Supreme Court) on July 10, 2010.[2]

Aquino
Teodoro
Villanueva
(2)
Roxas
Manzano
Yasay
Sonza
Chipeco
Metro Manila
Places where the presidential (red) and vice presidential (blue) candidates voted. For candidates that voted in Metro Manila (green), see map below.
Estrada
Villar
Perlas
Madrigal
Binay
Legarda
Fernando
Places where the presidential (red) and vice presidential (blue) candidates voted.

Electoral system

The election is held every six years after 1992, on the second Monday of May. The incumbent president is term limited. The incumbent vice president may run for two consecutive terms. As Joseph Estrada, who was elected in 1998, was able to run in 2010, it is undetermined if the term limit is for life, or is only limited to the incumbent.

The plurality voting system is used to determine the winner: the candidate with the highest number of votes, whether or not one has a majority, wins the presidency. The vice presidential election is a separate election, is held on the same rules, and voters may split their ticket. Both winners will serve six-year terms commencing on the noon of June 30, 2016 and ending on the same day six years later.

The candidates are determined via political conventions of the different political parties. As most political parties in the Philippines are loosely structured, with most politicians switching parties from time to time, a person not nominated by a party may either run as an independent, get drafted by another party, or form their own party. The candidacy process is supervised by the Commission on Elections (usually referred by its abbreviation "COMELEC") which also regulates and holds the elections. It is not uncommon for the Commission to disqualify certain candidates as "nuisance candidates" or those candidates who have no capacity to mount a nationwide campaign. This usually limits the candidates to a small number. The campaign will run for three months, beginning in early February 2010 and ending on the eve of the election, the Vote Counting Machines will be tested and be booted up at 5 AM in the morning and the shading of candidates will be on 7:30 in the morning CNN Philippines source says.

The counting of votes is initially held in the individual voting precincts, which are all then tabulated for the different municipalities and cities, then to the provinces, and finally to Congress, which is the final canvasser of the votes. Election protests are handled by the Supreme Court, when it sits as the Presidential Electoral Tribunal.

Timeline

The COMELEC-mandated election period for this election was from January 10 to June 9, 2010.

Nominations

In the Philippines, the multi-party system is implemented. Sometimes a coalition of different parties are made notably this year are the Pwersa ng Masang Pilipino and PDP-LABAN, and Nacionalista Party and NPC. Each party hosts candidates who go through a nomination process to determine the presidential nominee for that party.

The list below is listed in the alphabetical order of the party:

Party Name Running for Notes
Ang Kapatiran John Carlos de los Reyes President Nominated
Dominador Chipeco, Jr. Vice president Nominated
Bagumbayan-VNP Richard Gordon President Nominated
Bayani Fernando Vice president Nominated
Bangon Pilipinas Eddie Villanueva President Nominated
Perfecto Yasay Vice president Nominated
KBL Jay Sonza Vice president Nominated
Vetellano Acosta President Nominated, later disqualified
Lakas-Kampi Gilberto Teodoro President Nominated
Edu Manzano Vice president Nominated
Richard Gordon President Not nominated
Bayani Fernando President Not nominated
Liberal Benigno Aquino III President Nominated
Mar Roxas Vice president Nominated
President Nominated, later withdrew
Nacionalista Manny Villar President Nominated
NPC Loren Legarda Vice president Nominated as Manny Villar's running mate
President Withdrew
Francis Escudero President Withdrew from party, later withdrew from the race
Gilberto Teodoro President Withdrew from party
PDP-Laban Jejomar Binay Vice president Nominated as Joseph Estrada's running mate
President Withdrew
PMP Joseph Estrada President Nominated
Independents Jamby Madrigal President Nominated, originally a member of the LDP
Nicanor Perlas President Nominated
About 100 others President Disqualified
About 30 others Vice president Disqualified

Opinion polls

The Philippines has two primary opinion polling companies: Social Weather Stations (SWS) and Pulse Asia. The following are the last released surveys prior to the election by SWS and Pulse Asia:

Pre-election polling

President

Poll source Date(s) conducted Sample
size 		Margin of
error 		Acosta Aquino De los ReyesEstrada Gordon Madrigal Perlas Teodoro Villanueva Villar Other/
Undecided
SWS[88] May 2–3 2,400 ±2% 0 42 0.3 20 2 0.2 0.1 9 3 19 6
Pulse Asia[71] Apr. 23–25 1,800 ±2% — 39 0.2 20 2 0.1 0.3 7 3 20 9

Vice President

Poll source Date(s) conducted Sample
size 		Margin of
error 		Binay Chipeco Fernando Legarda Manzano Roxas Sonza Yasay Other Undecided
SWS[89] May 2–32,400 ±2% 37.2 0.2 4 12 3 37 0.3 1 6
Pulse Asia[71] Apr. 23–25 1,800 ±2% 28 0.05 3 20 3 37 0.03 1 9

Exit poll

SWS conducted an exit poll. SWS's 2004 exit poll missed by a large margin the result.[90]

According to the SWS exit poll, 45% of Muslims voted for Binay, while only 17% chose Roxas and 28% for Legarda. About 75% of the members of the Iglesia ni Cristo voted for Roxas. Despite having the endorsement of several Catholic bishops, de los Reyes only got 0.2% of the Catholic vote, while Aquino, despite being branded by some Catholic organizations as not pro-life, got 44%.[91]

President

Poll source Date(s) conducted Sample
size 		Margin of
error 		Aquino De los ReyesEstrada Gordon Madrigal Perlas Teodoro Villanueva Villar
SWS[92] May 10 52,573 ±1% 43.34 0.15 26.38 1.40 0.23 0.13 10.25 3.40 14.73

Vice President

Poll source Date(s) conducted Sample
size 		Margin of
error 		Binay Chipeco Fernando Legarda Manzano Roxas Sonza Yasay
SWS[92] May 10 52,573 ±1% 42.52 0.43 2.92 11.51 1.81 39.17 0.20 1.43

Graphs

Plotted as a 3-period moving average of the surveys included in Opinion polling in the Philippine presidential election, 2010.
President Vice president

Results

The candidate in each position with the highest amount of votes is declared the winner; there is no runoff. Congress shall canvass the votes in joint public session.

When there are two or more candidates who have an equal and highest amount of votes, Congress, voting separately via majority vote, will choose among the candidates who have an equal and highest amount of votes to be the president.

The Supreme Court shall "be the sole judge of all contests relating to the election, returns, and qualifications of the President or Vice President".

There are several parallel tallies, with the Congressional canvass the official tally. The COMELEC used the election returns from the polling precincts; the Congress as the national board of canvassers will base their official tally from the certificates of canvass from the provinces and cities, which were derived from the election returns. The accredited citizen's arm, the Parish Pastoral Council for Responsible Voting (PPCRV) also used the election returns from the polling precincts. In theory, all tallies must be identitcal.

For president

Presidential election results per province and city.
Vice presidential Election results per province and city. Loren Legarda and Bayani Fernando, despite having more votes than Edu Manzano, failed to win in any province or city where COCs had been canvassed by Congress.

Congress in joint session as the National Board of Canvassers convened in the Batasang Pambansa Complex in Quezon City, the home of the House of Representatives. Only a committee canvassed the votes, with the same number of members from both the Senate and the House of Representatives.

On June 8, Congress finished canvassing all of the votes, with the final canvass showing that Aquino and Binay had won. Aquino and Binay were proclaimed as president-elect and vice president-elect in a joint session on June 9. The president-elect and vice president-elect were inaugurated on June 30, 2010.[85]

In case a president has not been determined by June 30, the vice president-elect shall act as president until a president has been determined. If both positions have not yet been determined, the President of the Senate, or the Speaker of the House of Representatives if the former is unable to do so, shall act as president. Congress shall enact a law on who acts as president if neither of officials already stated are unable to do so.

 Summary of the May 10, 2010 Philippine presidential election results
Candidates Parties Votes %
Benigno Aquino III Liberal Party 15,208,678 42.08%
Joseph Estrada Pwersa ng Masang Pilipino (Force of the Filipino Masses) 9,487,837 26.25%
Manny Villar Nacionalista Party (Nationalist Party) 5,573,835 15.42%
Gilberto Teodoro Lakas Kampi CMD (People Power–Partner of Free Filipinos–Christian Muslim Democrats) 4,095,839 11.33%
Eddie Villanueva Bangon Pilipinas Party (Rise Up Philippines) 1,125,878 3.12%
Richard Gordon Bagumbayan-VNP (New Nation–Volunteers for a New Philippines) 501,727 1.39%
Nicanor Perlas Independent 54,575 0.15%
Jamby Madrigal Independent 46,489 0.13%
John Carlos de los Reyes Ang Kapatiran (Alliance for the Common Good) 44,244 0.12%
Total 36,139,102 100%
Valid votes 36,139,102 94.73%
Vetallano Acosta[p 1] Kilusang Bagong Lipunan (New Society Movement) 181,985 0.48%
Invalid votes 2,010,269 5.27%
Votes cast 38,149,371 74.38%
Registered voters 51,292,555 100%
  1. ↑ Disqualified after the ballots were printed. All of his votes are considered spoiled

For vice president

The candidate with the highest number of votes wins the vice presidency. In case when two or more candidates have the highest number of votes, one of them shall be chosen by the vote of a majority of all the members of both Houses of the Congress, voting separately.

 Summary of the May 10, 2010 Philippine vice presidential election results
Candidate Party Results
Votes %
Jejomar Binay PDP-Laban[v 1] 14,645,574 41.65%
Mar Roxas Liberal 13,918,490 39.58%
Loren Legarda NPC[v 2] 4,294,664 12.21%
Bayani Fernando Bagumbayan-VNP 1,017,631 2.89%
Edu Manzano Lakas-Kampi 807,728 2.30%
Perfecto Yasay Bangon Pilipinas 364,652 1.04%
Jay Sonza KBL 64,230 0.18%
Dominador Chipeco, Jr. Ang Kapatiran 52,562 0.15%
Total valid votes 35,165,555 92.18%
Total invalid votes 2,983,816 7.82%
Total turnout 38,149,371 74.38%
Registered voters 51,292,555 100.00%
  1. ↑ Binay is Joseph Estrada's (PMP) guest candidate for vice president.
  2. ↑ Legarda is Manny Villar's (Nacionalista) guest candidate for vice president.

Close provinces/cities

Results of provincial canvasses for the presidential election

Aquino
Estrada

Villar
Teodoro
Results of provincial canvasses for the vice presidential election

Binay
Roxas

Legarda
Swing as compared from the 2004 election: In 2004 the Liberals didn't field a candidate and instead supported Lakas-CMD's candidate Gloria Macapagal Arroyo as part of the K-4 coalition. 76% of the provinces and cities that Arroyo won went for Aquino. PMP's nominee in 2004, Poe, was the nominee of the KNP and retained 20 provinces and cities, and picked up 6 more provinces and cities, all but one in Mindanao.

Margin of victory is less than 5% for the presidential election:

Margin of victory is less than 5% for the vice presidential election:

Unofficial tallies

Winning presidential and vice presidential candidates per province/city in the elections. Note that the two positions are voted separately and voters can split their votes.

COMELEC

The COMELEC originally released results for president and vice president based from election returns but stopped in order not to preempt Congress. The COMELEC held their tally at the Philippine International Convention Center at Pasay.

2010 Philippine presidential election, COMELEC tally
Candidate Party Results
Votes %
Benigno Aquino III Liberal 12,233,002 42.16%
Joseph Estrada PMP 7,749,597 26.71%
Manny Villar Nacionalista 4,329,215 14.92%
Gilbert Teodoro Lakas Kampi CMD 3,243,688 11.18%
Eddie Villanueva Bangon Pilipinas 916,543 3.16%
Richard Gordon Bagumbayan-VNP 431,954 1.49%
Nicanor Perlas Independent 42,205 0.15%
Jamby Madrigal Independent 37,119 0.13%
John Carlos de los Reyes Ang Kapatiran 34,833 0.12%
Total valid votes cast 29,018,156 56.57%
Registered voters 51,292,465 100.00%
Clustered precincts reporting 59,965 78.41%
Popular vote
Aquino
  
 42.16%
Estrada
  
 26.71%
Villar
  
 14.92%
Teodoro
  
 11.18%
Others
  
 5.03%
2010 Philippine vice presidential election, COMELEC tally
Candidate Party Results
Votes %
Jejomar Binay PDP-Laban 12,025,429 42.45%
Mar Roxas Liberal 11,213,563 39.59%
Loren Legarda NPC 3,808,944 11.51%
Bayani Fernando Bagumbayan-VNP 847,100 2.99%
Edu Manzano Lakas Kampi CMD 593,653 2.10%
Perfecto Yasay Bangon Pilipinas 295,558 1.04%
Jay Sonza KBL 50,722 0.18%
Dominador Chipeco, Jr. Ang Kapatiran 40,335 0.14%
Total valid votes cast 28,326,323 55.23%
Registered voters 51,292,465 55.84%
Clustered precincts reporting 59,965 78.41%

PPCRV

The PPCRV held their tally at the Pope Pius Center in Manila.

2010 Philippine presidential election, PPCRV-KBP count
Candidate Party Results
Votes %
Noynoy Aquino Liberal 14,012,761 42.10%
Joseph Estrada PMP 8,860,076 26.62%
Manny Villar Nacionalista 5,073,824 15.24%
Gilbert Teodoro Lakas Kampi CMD 3,709,681 11.14%
Eddie Villanueva Bangon Pilipinas 1,029,406 3.09%
Richard Gordon Bagumbayan-VNP 470,131 1.41%
Nicanor Perlas Independent 49,362 0.15%
Jamby Madrigal Independent 42,657 0.13%
John Carlos de los Reyes Ang Kapatiran 40,430 0.12%
Total valid votes cast 33,288,328 64.90%
Registered voters 51,292,465 100.00%
Clustered precincts reporting 69,001 90.23%
2010 Philippine vice presidential election, PPCRV-KBP count
Candidate Party Results
Votes %
Jejomar Binay PDP-Laban 13,653,873 42.11%
Mar Roxas Liberal 12,823,404 39.55%
Loren Legarda NPC 3,856,989 11.89%
Bayani Fernando Bagumbayan-VNP 944,584 2.91%
Edu Manzano Lakas Kampi CMD 712,996 2.20%
Perfecto Yasay Bangon Pilipinas 327,501 1.01%
Jay Sonza KBL 58,202 0.18%
Dominador Chipeco, Jr. Ang Kapatiran 47,799 0.15%
Total valid votes cast 32,455,348 63.28%
Registered voters 51,292,465 100.00%
Clustered precincts reporting 69,001 90.23%

Voter demographics

President

2010 Presidential vote by demographic subgroup
Demographic subgroup Aquino Estrada Villar Other % of
total vote
Total vote 41 29 16 14 100
Location
NCR 43 31 10 16 10
Balance Luzon 43 31 16 10 44
Visayas 53 10 19 18 20
Mindanao 33 40 16 11 27
Community
Urban 44 28 13 15 44
Rural 39 30 18 13 56
Socio-economic class
ABC 52 17 13 18 8
D 43 27 15 15 60
E 35 35 18 12 32
Gender
Male 39 32 15 14 46
Female 43 27 17 13 54
Age
18-24 37 30 18 15 12
25-34 40 30 17 13 24
35-44 41 30 16 13 23
45-54 42 29 15 14 20
55-64 45 26 16 13 12
65 & up 43 28 14 16 9
Education
Some elementary/elementary graduate 38 32 18 12 30
Some high school 35 36 18 11 14
High school graduate 41 31 16 12 25
Vocational 45 29 13 13 6
Some college 45 24 14 17 12
College graduate/post-college graduate 50 15 13 22 12
Working status
Employed 41 29 15 15 56
Unemployed 41 29 17 13 44
Religion
Roman Catholic 41 31 16 12 80
Islam 48 12 30 10 5
Iglesia ni Cristo 85 10 1 4 4
Aglipayan 38 27 22 13 1
Others 24 34 16 26 10
Ethnic groups
Tagalog 43 34 11 12 35
Cebuano 39 31 14 16 26
Ilocano 28 33 26 13 8
Ilonggo 48 20 17 15 8

Source: Exit polls conducted by Pulse Asia[93]

Vice President

2010 Vice Presidential vote by demographic subgroup
Demographic subgroup Binay Roxas Legarda Other % of
total vote
Total vote 43 37 14 6 100
Location
NCR 54 33 5 8 10
Balance Luzon 46 34 15 5 44
Visayas 25 55 13 7 20
Mindanao 47 31 15 7 27
Community
Urban 48 38 9 5 47
Rural 39 37 17 7 56
Socio-economic class
ABC 41 45 7 7 8
D 43 39 12 6 60
E 42 33 18 7 32
Gender
Male 45 36 13 6 46
Female 41 39 14 6 54
Age
18-24 46 33 15 6 12
25-34 45 34 16 6 24
35-44 44 37 14 6 23
45-54 44 40 11 5 20
55-64 38 43 12 7 12
65 & up 33 45 14 8 9
Education
Some elementary/elementary graduate 38 35 19 8 30
Some high school 43 35 16 6 14
High school graduate 45 38 12 5 25
Vocational 50 40 7 3 6
Some college 46 39 11 4 12
College graduate/post-college graduate 42 43 7 8 12
Working status
Employed 43 37 14 6 56
Unemployed 42 38 14 6 44
Religion
Roman Catholic 45 37 13 5 80
Islam 40 19 36 5 5
Iglesia ni Cristo 9 86 3 2 4
Aglipayan 29 44 19 8 1
Others 44 30 15 11 10
Ethnic groups
Tagalog 52 34 9 5 35
Cebuano 41 41 11 7 26
Ilocano 41 30 24 5 8
Ilonggo 29 56 9 6 8

Source: Exit polls conducted by Pulse Asia[93]

Campaign expenses

According to the Fair Elections Act, the COMELEC's cap on spending is 10 pesos per voter for each candidate and another 5 pesos per voter for one's political party; since there are about 50 million voters, a candidate can spend up to 500 million pesos and a party can spend an additional 250 million pesos.

The following is a list of published campaign expenses; the COMELEC has no ability to confirm if these were true.[94][95][96][97]

Candidate (Party) Amount raised (PHP) Amount spent (PHP) Votes Spent per vote (PHP) Spent per voter (PHP)
Benigno Aquino III (LP) 440,050,000 (approx.) 403,119,981.81 15,208,678 26.51 7.86
Joseph Estrada (PMP) 8,000,000 (approx.) 227,500,000 9,487,837 23.98 4.44
Manny Villar (NP) 431,557,816 431,557,816 5,573,835 77.43 8.41
Gilberto Teodoro (Lakas-Kampi) 64,688.88 3,463,307.21 4,095,839 0.85 0.07
Jamby Madrigal (I) 55,182,264 55,182,264 46,489 1,187.00 1.08
Jejomar Binay (PDP-Laban) 231,480,000 (approx.) 217,938,289 14,645,574 14.88 4.25
Mar Roxas (LP) 246,000,000 (approx.) 279,351,224 13,918,490 20.07 5.45
Loren Legarda (NPC) N/A 210,280,000 4,294,664 48.96 4.10
Bayani Fernando (B-VNP) 61,000,000 (approx.) 80,081,865.61 1,017,631 78.69 1.56

Literature

References

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  59. ↑ "Acosta out but name stays on ballot but votes will be stray votes". Philippine Daily Inquirer.
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  63. ↑ "Gibo quits as Lakas-Kampi chair to focus on campaign". GMANews.TV.
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  65. ↑ "Pulse Asia's Ulat ng Bayan March 2010 Survey for National Elective Positions".
  66. ↑ "Stop ‘Villarroyo’ talk, Arroyo orders party". Inquirer.net.
  67. ↑ "Glitch mars absentee vote in 2 HK precincts". abs-cbnNEWS.com.
  68. ↑ "Local absentee voting starts today". Sun Star.
  69. ↑ "Noynoy leads by double digits over Villar in new SWS survey".
  70. ↑ "Villar continues to slip as Estrada nibbles at margin".
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  73. ↑ "Quiboloy endorses Gibo, says admin bet chosen by ‘Father’". GMA News.
  74. ↑ "Estrada overtakes Villar; negative attacks take toll". Manila Standard Today.
  75. ↑ "Iglesia Ni Cristo endorses Noynoy Aquino, Mar Roxas". GMA News.
  76. ↑ Pazzibugan, Dona (2010-05-08). "SC: It’s all systems go; Court junks petitions to postpone polls". Philippine Daily Inquirer. Retrieved 2010-05-08.
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  79. ↑ "Bro. Eddie, Edu Manzano concede defeat". ABS-CBN. 2010-05-11. Retrieved 2010-05-11.
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  92. 1 2 "Only 0.4% separates the TV5-SWS Exit Poll from the final official tally".
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  94. ↑ Tan, Kimberly Jane (2010-06-09). "Noynoy spent P403M during campaign — Comelec data". GMANews.TV. Retrieved 2010-12-19.
  95. ↑ Chua, Ryan (2010-06-24). "MVP, Razon donated P15M each to Erap campaign". GMANews.TV. Retrieved 2010-12-19.
  96. ↑ Alave, Kristine (2010-06-23). "Businessmen, Arroyo allies bankrolled Estrada presidential bid". Philippine Daily Inquirer. Retrieved 2010-12-19.
  97. ↑ Tan, Kimberly Jane (2010-06-10). "Roxas spent P279M for campaign — Comelec data". GMANews.TV. Retrieved 2010-12-19.
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