United States presidential election in Massachusetts, 2004

United States presidential election in Massachusetts, 2004
Massachusetts
November 2, 2004

 
Nominee John Kerry George W. Bush
Party Democratic Republican
Home state Massachusetts Texas
Running mate John Edwards Dick Cheney
Electoral vote 12 0
Popular vote 1,803,800 1,071,109
Percentage 61.94% 36.78%

County Results

Kerry

  50–60%
  60–70%
  70–80%

President before election

George W. Bush
Republican

 Elected President

George W. Bush
Republican

The 2004 United States presidential election in Massachusetts took place on November 2, 2004 throughout all 50 states and D.C., which was part of the 2004 United States presidential election. Voters chose 12 representatives, or electors to the Electoral College, who voted for President and Vice President.

Massachusetts was won by Democratic nominee John Kerry by a 25.2% margin of victory. Kerry took 61.94% of the vote to Republican George W. Bush's 36.78%. Prior to the election, all 12 news organizations considered this a state Kerry would win, or otherwise considered as a safe blue state. No Republican has won even a single county or congressional district in a presidential election since 1988 and no Republican won statewide since Ronald Reagan's landslide victory in 1984. In the 2004 presidential election it was also the home state of Democratic candidate John Kerry, who at the time represented Massachusetts in the U.S. Senate.

Massachusetts weighed in as about 27% more Democratic than the national average in 2004, making it the most Democratic state in the union, and the only state where Kerry won with more than 60% of the vote.

Primaries

Campaign

Predictions

There were 12 news organizations who made state by state predictions of the election. Here are their last predictions before election day.[1]

  1. D.C. Political Report: Solid Democrat
  2. Associated Press: Solid Kerry
  3. CNN: Kerry
  4. Cook Political Report: Solid Democrat
  5. Newsweek: Solid Kerry
  6. New York Times: Solid Kerry
  7. Rasmussen Reports: Kerry
  8. Research 2000: Solid Kerry
  9. Washington Post: Kerry
  10. Washington Times: Solid Kerry
  11. Zogby International: Kerry
  12. Washington Dispatch: Kerry

Polling

Kerry won every pre-election poll, and each with a double digit margin and with at least 50% of the vote. The final 3 poll average showed Kerry with a strong lead of 57% to 31%.[2]

Fundraising

Bush raised $4,060,356.[3] Kerry raised $18,565,872, which was 10% of all the money he raised in 2004, and the third highest amount below only New York and California.[4]

Advertising and visits

Neither campaign advertised or visited this state during the fall election.[5][6]

Analysis

Massachusetts was (and is) the bluest state in the nation. The Bay State has voted for the Democratic presidential nominee in every election since 1960 except for Ronald Reagan's landslide victories of 1980 and 1984. In 1972, only Massachusetts and the District of Columbia voted for Democratic U.S. Senator George McGovern as Republican Richard M. Nixon won reelection.

Kerry won Massachusetts, with a 25% spread against George W. Bush, which is actually similar to Al Gore's margin in 2000. He won every county and congressional district safely. The 2004 Democratic National Convention took place at the TD Banknorth Garden, then called FleetCenter in Boston, the state capital.

Results

United States presidential election in Massachusetts, 2004
Party Candidate Votes Percentage Electoral votes
Democratic John Kerry 1,803,800 61.94% 12
Republican George W. Bush 1,071,109 36.78% 0
Libertarian Michael Badnarik 15,022 0.52% 0
Green-Rainbow David Cobb 10,623 0.36% 0
Independent Others (Write-In) 7,028 0.24% 0
Independent Ralph Nader (Write-In) 4,806 0.17% 0
Write-in votes 11,834 0.41% 0

Results breakdown

By county

Counties are listed in order of % of Kerry vote : the last column shows the county winner in 2000 and the gain of the Democratic party between the two elections.

County Kerry% Kerry# Bush% Bush# Others% Others# 2000 result
Suffolk 75.6% 182,592 22.8% 54,923 1.3% 3,130 +4.2
Berkshire 73.1% 47,743 25.7% 16,806 1.1% 742 +9.2
Dukes 72.7% 7,265 26.0% 2,602 1.3% 130 +10.9
Hampshire 69.4% 51,680 28.6% 21,315 1.9% 1,427 +13.2
Franklin 68.4% 25,550 29.6% 11,058 2.1% 773 +14.6
Middlesex 64.0% 440,862 34.5% 237,815 1.5% 10,283 +2.5
Bristol 63.5% 147,854 35.4% 82,524 1.1% 2,500 −1.0
Nantucket 63.0% 3,608 35.6% 2,040 1.3% 76 +4.7
Hampden 60.9% 113,710 38.0% 70,925 1.1% 2,004 +2.7
Norfolk 60.2% 199,392 38.6% 127,763 1.2% 3,982 +0.8
Essex 58.2% 194,068 40.5% 135,114 1.2% 4,051 +0.7
Worcester 56.4% 192,142 42.3% 144,094 1.3% 4,400 +0.4
Barnstable 54.6% 72,156 44.3% 58,527 1.1% 1,465 +3.1
Plymouth 53.7% 125,178 45.3% 105,603 1.1% 2,516 −0.8

Results by municipality

Results by Town
  Kerry – >90%
  Kerry – 80–90%
  Kerry – 70–80%
  Kerry – 60–70%
  Kerry – 50–60%
  Kerry – <50%
  Bush – <50%
  Bush – 50–60%

Results by Congressional district

Kerry won all ten Congressional districts.

District Bush Kerry Representative
1st 35% 63% John Olver
2nd 40% 59% Richard Neal
3rd 40% 59% Jim McGovern
4th 33% 65% Barney Frank
5th 41% 57% Marty Meehan
6th 41% 58% John Tierney
7th 33% 66% Ed Markey
8th 19% 79% Mike Capuano
9th 36% 63% Stephen Lynch
10th 43% 56% William Delahunt

Electors

Technically the voters of Massachusetts cast their ballots for electors: representatives to the Electoral College. Massachusetts is allocated 12 electors because it has 10 congressional districts and 2 senators. All candidates who appear on the ballot or qualify to receive write-in votes must submit a list of 12 electors, who pledge to vote for their candidate and his or her running mate. Whoever wins the majority of votes in the state is awarded all 12 electoral votes. Their chosen electors then vote for President and Vice President. Although electors are pledged to their candidate and running mate, they are not obligated to vote for them. An elector who votes for someone other than his or her candidate is known as a faithless elector.

The electors of each state and the District of Columbia met on December 13, 2004 to cast their votes for President and Vice President. The Electoral College itself never meets as one body. Instead the electors from each state and the District of Columbia met in their respective capitols.

The following were the members of the Electoral College from the state. All 12 were pledged for Kerry/Edwards:

  1. Cathaleen L. Ashton
  2. Sharon M. Pollard
  3. Elizabeth Moroney
  4. Helen Covington
  5. Candice E. Lopes
  6. Susan Thomson
  7. Robert P. Cassidy
  8. William P. Dooling
  9. William Eddy
  10. Thomas V. Barbera
  11. Mushtaque A. Minza
  12. Calvin T. Brown

References

  1. ↑ http://www.dcpoliticalreport.com/members/2004/Pred2.htm#NW
  2. ↑ http://uselectionatlas.org/USPRESIDENT/GENERAL/CAMPAIGN/2004/polls.php?fips=25
  3. ↑ http://www.campaignmoney.com/political/campaigns/george_w_bush.asp?cycle=04
  4. ↑ http://www.campaignmoney.com/political/campaigns/john_f_kerry.asp?cycle=04
  5. ↑ http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2004/special/president/campaign.ads/
  6. ↑ http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2004/special/president/tracking/10.25.html

See also

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