United States presidential election in Iowa, 2004

United States presidential election in Iowa, 2004
Iowa
November 2, 2004

 
Nominee George W. Bush John Kerry
Party Republican Democratic
Home state Texas Massachusetts
Running mate Dick Cheney John Edwards
Electoral vote 7 0
Popular vote 751,957 741,898
Percentage 49.90% 49.23%

County Results

President before election

George W. Bush
Republican

 Elected President

George W. Bush
Republican

The 2004 United States presidential election in Iowa took place on November 2, 2004 throughout all 50 states and D.C., which was part of the 2004 United States presidential election. Voters chose 7 representatives, or electors to the Electoral College, who voted for President and Vice President.

Iowa was won by incumbent President George W. Bush by a 0.67% margin of victory, despite losing the state to Al Gore in 2000. Prior to the election, most news organizations considered this a swing state. The Democrats had won Iowa in the previous four presidential elections, though only narrowly in 2000. Gore had won the state by only 0.32%, a much weaker margin compared to 1988, when Democrat Michael Dukakis carried the state by 10 percentage points, and later when Democrat Bill Clinton won with a 6% margin in 1992 and a 10% margin in 1996. Iowa was one of just two states (along with New Mexico) to vote for Gore in 2000 but flip to Bush in 2004, although both times won by razor-thin margins.

Democratic caucuses

Campaign

Predictions

There were 12 news organizations who made state by state predictions of the election. Here are their last predictions before election day.[1]

  1. D.C. Political Report: Lean Democratic
  2. Associated Press: Toss Up
  3. CNN: Bush
  4. Cook Political Report: Toss Up
  5. Newsweek: Leans Bush
  6. New York Times: Leans Bush
  7. Rasmussen Reports: Toss Up
  8. Research 2000: Lean Kerry
  9. Washington Post: Battleground
  10. Washington Times: Battleground
  11. Zogby International: Kerry
  12. Washington Dispatch: Kerry

Polling

Polls showed the state was a pure tossup with neither candidate reaching a consistent lead. The last three polls averaged both candidates at 48%, with the last-second deciders the key to victory.[2] The final Real Clear Politics average gave Bush leading with a margin of 0.3%, with 47.4% to Kerry at 47.1% and Nader at 1.0%.[3]

Fundraising

Bush raised $671,335.[4] Kerry raised $449,980.[5]

Advertising and visits

The Kerry campaign visited the state 11 times to Bush's 10 times.[6] Both campaigns spent between $400,000 to $600,000 each week in television advertising.[7]

Analysis

Although Kerry dominated the higher populated areas, Bush dominated the ultra rural areas, specifically winning all the counties in the far west part of the state. Bush also won 3 of the state's 5 congressional districts. In just 2 counties did Bush obtain less than 40% of the vote. Bush's best performance in the state was in Sioux County, where he won with 86% of the vote.[8]

Results

United States presidential election in Iowa, 2004
Party Candidate Running mate Votes Percentage Electoral votes
Republican George W. Bush Richard Cheney 751,957 49.90% 7
Democratic John Kerry John Edwards 741,898 49.23% 0
Independent Ralph Nader Peter Camejo 5,973 0.40% 0
Libertarian Michael Badnarik Richard Campagna 2,992 0.20% 0
Constitution Michael Peroutka Chuck Baldwin 1,304 0.09% 0
Green David Cobb Pat LaMarche 1,141 0.08% 0
N/A Write-ins - 1,094 0.07% 0
Socialist Workers Róger Calero Margaret Trowe 373 0.02% 0
Socialist Equality Bill Van Auken Jim Lawrence 176 0.01% 0
Totals 1,506,908 100% 7
Voter Turnout (Voting age/Registered) 67%/76%

Results breakdown

By county

County Kerry Votes Bush Votes Others Votes
Adair 43.1% 1,844 56.1% 2,402 0.7% 32
Adams 42.0% 977 56.6% 1,317 1.3% 31
Allamakee 48.8% 3,449 50.0% 3,530 1.2% 83
Appanoose 47.5% 3,063 51.8% 3,340 0.7% 47
Audubon 44.8% 1,608 54.5% 1,958 0.7% 26
Benton 50.0% 6,747 49.3% 6,658 0.7% 96
Black Hawk 55.4% 35,392 43.9% 28,046 0.7% 469
Boone 50.2% 7,027 49.0% 6,870 0.8% 112
Bremer 47.1% 6,025 52.2% 6,665 0.7% 89
Buchanan 53.5% 5,608 45.8% 4,797 0.7% 70
Buena Vista 41.5% 3,520 57.6% 4,887 1.0% 83
Butler 40.1% 3,001 59.1% 4,417 0.8% 57
Calhoun 40.5% 2,243 58.7% 3,255 0.8% 44
Carroll 44.6% 4,689 54.8% 5,762 0.7% 73
Cass 35.5% 2,679 63.6% 4,796 0.9% 68
Cedar 49.0% 4,747 50.2% 4,869 0.8% 78
Cerro Gordo 54.5% 13,372 44.7% 10,960 0.8% 184
Cherokee 44.0% 2,988 55.3% 3,758 0.7% 50
Chickasaw 54.5% 3,708 44.7% 3,040 0.9% 58
Clarke 50.9% 2,323 48.2% 2,200 0.9% 43
Clay 41.3% 3,547 57.0% 4,898 1.7% 143
Clayton 51.7% 4,736 47.0% 4,312 1.3% 120
Clinton 56.0% 13,813 43.2% 10,666 0.8% 205
Crawford 44.5% 3,220 54.6% 3,955 0.9% 67
Dallas 41.5% 10,917 57.7% 15,183 0.7% 193
Davis 44.2% 1,731 54.8% 2,148 1.0% 39
Decatur 46.3% 1,859 52.1% 2,088 1.6% 64
Delaware 45.9% 4,227 53.3% 4,908 0.7% 65
Des Moines 59.7% 12,456 39.4% 8,221 0.9% 197
Dickinson 43.3% 4,140 55.9% 5,337 0.8% 76
Dubuque 56.5% 26,561 42.7% 20,100 0.8% 382
Emmet 46.6% 2,405 52.3% 2,697 1.0% 54
Fayette 49.9% 5,185 49.3% 5,128 0.8% 79
Floyd 53.3% 4,349 45.9% 3,745 0.9% 73
Franklin 42.4% 2,340 56.7% 3,128 1.0% 53
Fremont 38.6% 1,510 60.4% 2,362 1.0% 39
Greene 48.1% 2,459 51.2% 2,618 0.7% 36
Grundy 34.8% 2,386 64.7% 4,429 0.5% 34
Guthrie 43.6% 2,614 55.5% 3,325 0.9% 55
Hamilton 46.7% 3,895 52.4% 4,367 0.9% 73
Hancock 42.1% 2,484 57.0% 3,368 0.9% 53
Hardin 44.9% 4,015 54.5% 4,875 0.7% 59
Harrison 37.8% 2,906 60.9% 4,680 1.2% 94
Henry 43.6% 4,127 55.2% 5,220 1.2% 110
Howard 55.7% 2,614 43.2% 2,028 1.2% 55
Humboldt 40.1% 2,146 59.1% 3,162 0.8% 42
Ida 37.5% 1,415 62.1% 2,342 0.5% 17
Iowa 45.4% 3,841 53.7% 4,544 0.8% 69
Jackson 56.5% 5,656 42.4% 4,242 1.1% 113
Jasper 52.0% 10,430 47.2% 9,462 0.8% 170
Jefferson 54.2% 4,490 44.1% 3,648 1.7% 143
Johnson 64.0% 41,847 34.7% 22,715 1.2% 811
Jones 50.7% 5,054 48.4% 4,834 0.9% 90
Keokuk 41.9% 2,294 56.9% 3,119 1.2% 67
Kossuth 44.6% 4,132 54.5% 5,042 0.9% 84
Lee 56.8% 10,152 41.8% 7,472 1.3% 234
Linn 54.6% 60,442 44.6% 49,442 0.8% 856
Louisa 46.7% 2,297 52.3% 2,572 1.0% 47
Lucas 43.5% 1,987 55.6% 2,543 0.9% 41
Lyon 21.4% 1,303 77.9% 4,751 0.8% 47
Madison 42.2% 3,380 56.7% 4,538 1.1% 86
Mahaska 35.3% 3,790 63.9% 6,858 0.7% 80
Marion 39.4% 6,574 59.8% 9,990 0.8% 132
Marshall 49.3% 9,443 49.9% 9,557 0.9% 164
Mills 33.3% 2,308 65.6% 4,556 1.1% 76
Mitchell 50.8% 2,785' 48.3% 2,646 0.9% 49
Monona 47.8% 2,397 51.3% 2,575 0.9% 46
Monroe 46.8% 1,855 52.2% 2,067 1.0% 41
Montgomery 34.2% 1,899 64.8% 3,601 1.0% 56
Muscatine 51.0% 9,542 48.2% 9,020 0.8% 155
O'Brien 30.1% 2,330 68.9% 5,328 0.9% 73
Osceola 28.6% 934 70.3% 2,295 1.1% 37
Page 29.4% 2,211 69.8% 5,243 0.8% 59
Palo Alto 47.8% 2,482 51.5% 2,674 0.7% 35
Plymouth 35.0% 4,278 63.9% 7,810 1.1% 134
Pocahontas 42.2% 1,822 56.6% 2,441 1.2% 50
Polk 47.3% 95,828 51.9% 105,218 0.8% 1,572
Pottawattamie 40.4% 16,906 58.7% 24,558 0.9% 356
Poweshiek 50.0% 5,043 49.2% 4,965 0.8% 83
Ringgold 46.3% 1,286 52.8% 1,466 0.9% 26
Sac 41.2% 2,215 58.2% 3,128 0.6% 31
Scott 50.9% 42,122 48.3% 39,958 0.8% 642
Shelby 35.3% 2,355 63.8% 4,256 0.9% 59
Sioux 13.6% 2,259 85.9% 14,229 0.5% 82
Story 52.2% 23,296 46.6% 20,819 1.2% 537
Tama 49.9% 4,487 49.5% 4,456 0.6% 58
Taylor 39.2% 1,252 59.8% 1,908 0.9% 30
Union 46.0% 2,747 52.9% 3,165 1.1% 66
Van Buren 40.9% 1,568 57.6% 2,211 1.5% 57
Wapello 54.6% 9,125 44.3% 7,403 1.1% 179
Warren 46.5% 10,730 52.7% 12,160 0.7% 163
Washington 43.0% 4,595 55.9% 5,977 1.1% 116
Wayne 44.0% 1,379 55.3% 1,733 0.7% 21
Webster 51.3% 9,561 48.1% 8,959 0.6% 111
Winnebago 45.5% 2,707 53.3% 3,175 1.2% 70
Winneshiek 49.6% 5,354 49.4% 5,324 1.0% 106
Woodbury 48.5% 21,455 50.8% 22,451 0.7% 289
Worth 55.4% 2,286 43.5% 1,795 1.0% 42
Wright 44.4% 2,930 55.0% 3,631 0.6% 42

By congressional district

Bush won 3 of 5 congressional districts.[9]

District Bush Kerry Representative
1st 46% 53% Jim Nussle
2nd 44% 55% Jim Leach
3rd 50% 50% Leonard Boswell
4th 51% 48% Tom Latham
5th 60% 39% Steve King

Electors

Iowa voters cast their ballots for electors: representatives to the Electoral College. Iowa has 7 electors because it has 5 congressional districts and 2 senators. All candidates who appear on the ballot or qualify to receive write-in votes must submit a list of 7 electors, who pledge to vote for their candidate and his or her running mate. Whoever wins the majority of votes in the state is awarded all 7 electoral votes. Their chosen electors then vote for President and Vice President. Although electors are pledged to their candidate and running mate, they are not obligated to vote for them. An elector who votes for someone other than his or her candidate is known as a faithless elector.

The electors of each state and the District of Columbia met on December 13, 2004 to cast their votes for President and Vice President. The Electoral College itself never meets as one body. Instead the electors from each state and the District of Columbia meet in their respective capitols.

The following were the members of the Electoral College from Iowa. All were pledged to and voted for Bush and Cheney.[10]

  1. Julie Hosch
  2. Velma Huebner
  3. Don Racheter
  4. Marilyn Bose
  5. Don Kass
  6. Dorothy Schlitter
  7. Wanda Sears

References

  1. ↑ http://www.dcpoliticalreport.com/members/2004/Pred2.htm#NW%5B%5D
  2. ↑ http://uselectionatlas.org/USPRESIDENT/GENERAL/CAMPAIGN/2004/polls.php?fips=19
  3. ↑ http://www.realclearpolitics.com/Presidential_04/ia_polls.html
  4. ↑ http://www.campaignmoney.com/political/campaigns/george_w_bush.asp?cycle=04
  5. ↑ http://www.campaignmoney.com/political/campaigns/john_f_kerry.asp?cycle=04
  6. ↑ "CNN.com Specials". CNN.
  7. ↑ "CNN.com Specials". CNN.
  8. ↑ http://uselectionatlas.org/RESULTS/
  9. ↑ http://www.swingstateproject.com/diary/4161/
  10. ↑ http://www.archives.gov/federal-register/electoral-college/2004_certificates/

See also

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