United States presidential election, 2020

United States presidential election, 2020
United States
November 3, 2020

United States presidential election in Oregon, 2020 United States presidential election in Washington, 2020 United States presidential election in Wisconsin, 2020 ElectoralCollege2020.svg
About this image
The electoral map for the 2020 election, based on populations from the 2010 Census. The 2020 election will be the last election to use the data from the 2010 Census; the subsequent two elections will use information from the as yet-to-be-collected 2020 United States Census.
Incumbent President

Donald Trump
Republican

The United States presidential election of 2020, scheduled for Tuesday, November 3, 2020, will be the 59th quadrennial U.S. presidential election. Voters will select presidential electors who in turn will either elect a new president and vice president through the electoral college or re-elect the incumbents. The series of presidential primary elections and caucuses are likely to be held during the first six months of 2020. This nominating process is also an indirect election, where voters cast ballots selecting a slate of delegates to a political party's nominating convention, who then in turn elect their party's presidential nominee.

President Donald Trump of the Republican Party, who was elected in 2016, will be eligible to seek re-election. The winner of the 2020 presidential election is scheduled to be inaugurated on January 20, 2021.

Background

Procedure

Article Two of the United States Constitution states that for a person to be elected and serve as President of the United States the individual must be a natural-born citizen of the United States, at least 35 years old and a United States resident for at least 14 years. Candidates for the presidency typically seek the nomination of one of the various political parties of the United States, in which case each party develops a method (such as a primary election) to choose the candidate the party deems best suited to run for the position. The primary elections are usually indirect elections where voters cast ballots for a slate of party delegates pledged to a particular candidate. The party's delegates then officially nominate a candidate to run on the party's behalf. The general election in November is also an indirect election, where voters cast ballots for a slate of members of the Electoral College; these electors then directly elect the President and Vice President.[1] The Twenty-second Amendment to the Constitution limits a President to two terms. This prohibits former Presidents Bill Clinton, George W. Bush, and Barack Obama from running in this election.

The age group of what will then be persons in the 18 to 45-year-old bracket is expected to represent 40 percent of the United States' eligible voters in 2020.[2]

Simultaneous elections

The presidential election will occur at the same time as elections to the Senate and the House of Representatives. Several states will also hold state gubernatorial and state legislative elections. Following the election, the United States House will redistribute the seats among the 50 states based on the results of the 2020 United States Census, and the states will conduct a redistricting of Congressional and state legislative districts. In most states, the governor and the state legislature conduct the redistricting (although some states have redistricting commissions), and often a party that wins a presidential election experiences a coattail effect that also helps other candidates of that party win election.[3] Therefore, the party that wins the 2020 presidential election could also win a significant advantage in the drawing of new Congressional and state legislative districts that would stay in effect until the 2032 elections.[4]

Advantage of incumbency

An incumbent president seeking re-election usually faces no significant opposition during their respective party's primaries, especially if they are still popular. For Presidents Ronald Reagan, Bill Clinton, George W. Bush and Barack Obama, for example, their respective paths to nomination became uneventful and the races become merely pro forma; all four then went on to win a second presidential term. Serious challenges are rare, but then generally presage failure to win the general election in the fall. During the 1976 Republican Party primaries, then-former California Governor Reagan carried 23 states while running against incumbent President Gerald Ford; Ford then went on to lose the presidential election to Jimmy Carter, albeit carrying more states. Senator Ted Kennedy then carried 12 states while running against Carter during the 1980 Democratic Party primaries; Reagan then defeated Carter in the fall of 1980. Pat Buchanan captured a decent percentage of a protest vote against George H. W. Bush during the 1992 Republican primaries, but only received a handful of delegates; Bush too subsequently went on to lose in the general election to Clinton.

General election polling

Polling
Trump vs. Harris
Poll source Sample size Date(s) Margin of Error Donald Trump Kamala Harris Undecided
Zogby Analytics[5] 1,300 August 4–7, 2017 N/A 38% 41% 21%
Public Policy Polling[6] 692 July 14–17, 2017 ± 3.7% 40% 41% 19%
Public Policy Polling[7] 692 June 9–11, 2017 ± 3.7% 41% 42% 18%
Trump vs. Warren
Poll source Sample size Date(s) Margin of Error Donald Trump Elizabeth Warren Undecided
Zogby Analytics[5] 1,300 August 4–7, 2017 N/A 37% 46% 17%
Public Policy Polling[6] 692 July 14–17, 2017 ± 3.7% 42% 49% 9%
Public Policy Polling[7] 692 June 9–11, 2017 ± 3.7% 43% 46% 11%
Public Policy Polling[8] 692 May 12–14, 2017 ± 3.7% 39% 49% 12%
Public Policy Polling[9] 648 April 17–18, 2017 ± 3.9% 42% 46% 13%
Public Policy Polling[10] 677 March 27–28, 2017 ± 3.8% 43% 48% 9%
Politico/Morning Consult[11] 1,791 February 9–10, 2017 ± 2% 42% 36% 22%
Trump vs. Zuckerberg
Poll source Sample size Date(s) Margin of Error Donald Trump Mark Zuckerberg Undecided
Zogby Analytics[5] 1,300 August 4–7, 2017 N/A 40% 43% 16%
Public Policy Polling[6] 836 July 14–17, 2017 ± 3.4% 40% 40% 20%
Trump vs. Zuckerberg vs. Scarborough
Poll source Sample size Date(s) Margin of Error Donald Trump Mark Zuckerberg Joe Scarborough Undecided
Zogby Analytics[5] 1,300 August 4–7, 2017 N/A 36% 34% 18% 12%
Trump vs. Biden
Poll source Sample size Date(s) Margin of Error Donald Trump Joe Biden Undecided
Public Policy Polling[6] 692 July 14–17, 2017 ± 3.7% 39% 54% 7%
Public Policy Polling[7] 692 June 9–11, 2017 ± 3.7% 41% 54% 5%
Public Policy Polling[8] 692 May 12–14, 2017 ± 3.7% 40% 54% 6%
Public Policy Polling[9] 648 April 17–18, 2017 ± 3.9% 40% 54% 6%
Public Policy Polling[10] 677 March 27–28, 2017 ± 3.8% 40% 54% 6%
Trump vs. Booker
Poll source Sample size Date(s) Margin of Error Donald Trump Cory Booker Undecided
Public Policy Polling[6] 692 July 14–17, 2017 ± 3.7% 40% 45% 15%
Public Policy Polling[7] 692 June 9–11, 2017 ± 3.7% 41% 43% 17%
Public Policy Polling[8] 692 May 12–14, 2017 ± 3.7% 39% 46% 15%
Public Policy Polling[9] 648 April 17–18, 2017 ± 3.9% 42% 42% 17%
Public Policy Polling[10] 677 March 27–28, 2017 ± 3.8% 42% 45% 13%
Trump vs. Sanders
Poll source Sample size Date(s) Margin of Error Donald Trump Bernie Sanders Undecided
Public Policy Polling[6] 692 July 14–17, 2017 ± 3.7% 39% 52% 9%
Public Policy Polling[7] 692 June 9–11, 2017 ± 3.7% 41% 51% 8%
Public Policy Polling[8] 692 May 12–14, 2017 ± 3.7% 39% 52% 9%
Public Policy Polling[9] 648 April 17–18, 2017 ± 3.9% 41% 50% 8%
Public Policy Polling[10] 677 March 27–28, 2017 ± 3.8% 41% 52% 7%
Trump vs. Franken
Poll source Sample size Date(s) Margin of Error Donald Trump Al Franken Undecided
Public Policy Polling[8] 692 May 12–14, 2017 ± 3.7% 38% 46% 16%
Public Policy Polling[9] 648 April 17–18, 2017 ± 3.9% 43% 43% 14%
Public Policy Polling[10] 677 March 27–28, 2017 ± 3.8% 41% 46% 13%
Trump vs. Johnson
Poll source Sample size Date(s) Margin of Error Donald Trump Dwayne Johnson Undecided
Public Policy Polling[8] 692 May 12–14, 2017 ± 3.7% 37% 42% 21%
Trump vs. Winfrey
Poll source Sample size Date(s) Margin of Error Donald Trump Oprah Winfrey Undecided
Zogby Analytics[12] 1,531 March 27–29, 2017 ±2.5% 36% 46% 18%
Public Policy Polling[13] 808 March 10–12, 2017 ± 3.4% 40% 47% 12%
Trump vs. Cuban
Poll source Sample size Date(s) Margin of Error Donald Trump Mark Cuban Undecided
Public Policy Polling[14] 941 February 21–22, 2017 ± 3.2% 41% 40% 19%
Trump vs. generic Democrat
Poll source Sample size Date(s) Margin of Error Donald Trump Democratic Candidate Undecided
Politico/Morning Consult[11] 1,791 February 9–10, 2017 ± 2% 35% 43% 22%

Republican Party

Donald Trump is eligible to run for re-election and has implied that he intends to do so.[15] His reelection campaign is ongoing. On January 20, 2017 at 5:11 PM, he submitted a letter as a substitute of FEC Form 2, for which he had reached the legal threshold for filing, in compliance with the Federal Election Campaign Act.[16]

Presumptive incumbents

Name Born Current or previous positions State

Donald Trump		 June 14, 1946
(age 71)
New York City, New York		 President of the United States since 2017
Candidate for President in 2000
New York

Mike Pence		 June 7, 1959
(age 58)
Columbus, Indiana		 Vice President of the United States since 2017
Governor of Indiana 2013–2017
U.S. Representative 2001–2013
Republican nominee for U.S. Representative in 1988 and 1990
Indiana

Below are other Republican candidates that may or will run in 2020:

Declared minor candidates

Name Born Current or previous positions State Announced Ref

Jack Fellure		 October 3, 1931
(age 85)
Midkiff, West Virginia		 Prohibition nominee for President in 2012
Candidate for President 1988–2008 and 2016
West Virginia		 November 9, 2016 [17]

Candidates who have publicly expressed interest

Speculative candidates

Declined to be candidates

The individuals in this section have been the subject of speculation about their possible candidacy, but have publicly denied interest in running.

Potential convention sites

Bids for the National Convention will be solicited in the fall of 2017, with finalists being announced early the following spring. The winning bid will be revealed in the summer of 2018.

Statewide polling

New Hampshire

Poll

Source

 Sample

Size

 Date(s)

Administered

 Margin of

Error

 John Kasich Mike Pence Donald Trump Undecided
American Research Group[50] 600 August 4-6, 2017 ± 4 41% 27% – 32%
American Research Group[50] 600 August 4-6, 2017 ± 4 52% – 40% 8%

Democratic Party

Declared major candidates

The candidates in this section have held public office and/or been included in a minimum of five independent national polls.

Name Born Current or previous positions State Announced Ref

John Delaney		 April 16, 1963
(age 54)
Wood-Ridge, New Jersey		 U.S. Representative from Maryland since 2013
Maryland		 July 28, 2017
(Campaign)		 [51][52]

Declared minor candidates

Name Born Current or previous positions State Announced Ref

Rocky De La Fuente		 October 10, 1954
(age 62)
San Diego, California 		American Delta and Reform
nominee for President in 2016
Candidate for Mayor of New York City in 2017
Candidate for the U.S. Senate from Florida in 2016
New York		 January 9, 2017 [53]

Geoffrey Fieger		 December 23, 1950
(age 66)
Detroit, Michigan		 Democratic nominee for
Governor of Michigan in 1998
Michigan		 January 13, 2017 [54]

Individuals who have publicly expressed interest

Individuals in this section have expressed an interest in running for President within the last six months.

Speculative candidates

Declined to be candidates

The individuals in this section have been the subject of speculation about their possible candidacy, but have publicly denied interest in running.

Potential convention sites

Bids for the National Convention will be solicited in the fall of 2017, with finalists being announced early the following spring. The winning bid will be revealed in the summer of 2018.

National polling

Poll source Sample size Date(s) Margin of Error Joe Biden Cory Booker Sherrod Brown Julian Castro Hillary Clinton Mark Cuban Andrew Cuomo Al Franken Kirsten Gillibrand Tim Kaine Michelle Obama Bernie Sanders Elizabeth Warren Oprah Winfrey Others Undecided
Harvard-Harris[184] 2,092 March 14–16, 2017 N/A – 3% – – – 4% 4% – – – 14% 18% 10% 4% 44% –
Harvard-Harris[184] 2,092 March 14–16, 2017 N/A – 3% – – 8% 4% 3% – – – 11% 14% 9% 3% 45% –
Rasmussen[185] 1,000 February 8–9, 2017 ± 3% 15% 8% – – 17% – – 6% – – – 20% 16% – 0% 20%
Public Policy Polling[186] 400 December 6–7, 2016 ± 4.9% 31% 4% 2% 0% – – 2% 3% 3% – – 24% 16% – – 14%
Politico/Morning Consult[187] 1,989 October 5–6, 2016 ± 2% – 5% – – – – 6% – – 10% – – 16% – 8% 54%

Statewide polling

Iowa

Poll source Sample size Date(s) Margin of Error Cory Booker Julian Castro Andrew Cuomo Kirsten Gillibrand Kamala Harris Amy Klobuchar Martin O'Malley Sheryl Sandberg Howard Schultz Others Undecided
Public Policy Polling[188]

(for a Martin O'Malley-aligned PAC)

1,062 March 3–6, 2017 N/A 17% 4% 8% 3% 3% 11% 18% 4% 1% – 32%

Third-party, independent, and unaffiliated candidates

Libertarian Party

Declared candidates

Name Born Current or previous positions State Announced Ref

Adam Kokesh		 February 1, 1982
(age 35)
San Francisco, California		 Political activist
Arizona		 July 22, 2013 [189]

Individuals who have publicly expressed interest

Individuals in this section have expressed an interest in running for President within the last six months.

Declined to be candidates

The individuals in this section have been the subject of speculation about their possible candidacy, but have publicly denied interest in running.

Green Party

Individuals who have publicly expressed interest

Individuals in this section have expressed an interest in running for President within the last six months.

Declined to be candidates

The individuals in this section have been the subject of speculation about their possible candidacy, but have publicly denied interest in running.

Independent or unaffiliated

Declared candidates

Name Born Current or previous positions State Announced Ref

Jeremy Gable		 May 10, 1982
(age 35)
Lakenheath, England		 Playwright
Pennsylvania		 May 11, 2015 [194]

Dan Rattiner		 1939
(age 78)
New York City, New York		 Journalist
Newspaper publisher
New York		 April 24, 2015 [195]

Kanye West		 June 8, 1977
(age 40)
Atlanta, Georgia		 Rapper
Songwriter
Record producer
Fashion designer
Entrepreneur
California		 August 30, 2015 [196]

Individuals who have publicly expressed interest

Individuals in this section have expressed an interest in running for President within the last six months.

Speculative candidates

Declined to be candidates

The individuals in this section have been the subject of speculation about their possible candidacy, but have publicly denied interest in running.

See also

Notes

  1. 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 This individual is not registered to the political party of this section, but has been the subject of speculation and/or expressed interest in running under this party.

References

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  2. ↑ Weeks, Linton (January 25, 2013). "Forget 2016. The Pivotal Year In Politics May Be 2020". NPR. Retrieved October 30, 2015.
  3. ↑ Campbell, James E. (March 1986). "Presidential Coattails and Midterm Losses in State Legislative Elections". The American Political Science Review. 80 (1): 45. JSTOR 1957083.
  4. ↑ Sarlin, Benjy (August 26, 2014). "Forget 2016: Democrats already have a plan for 2020". MSNBC.
  5. 1 2 3 4 "The Zogby Poll: 2020 Presidential Election Potential Match-ups". Zogby Analytics. August 8, 2017. Retrieved August 8, 2017.
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