United States Senate special election in Hawaii, 2014

United States Senate special election in Hawaii, 2014
Hawaii
November 4, 2014

 
Nominee Brian Schatz Campbell Cavasso
Party Democratic Republican
Popular vote 246,827 98,006
Percentage 69.8% 27.8%

County results
U.S. Senator before election

Brian Schatz
Democratic

 Elected U.S. Senator

Brian Schatz
Democratic

The 2014 United States Senate election in Hawaii took place on November 4, 2014, concurrently with other elections to the United States Senate in other states as well as elections to the United States House of Representatives and various state and local elections. The primary elections were held on August 9, 2014.[1]

Incumbent Democratic Senator Brian Schatz was appointed to the office in December 2012, following the death of longtime senator Daniel Inouye.[2] The special election determined who would serve the remainder of Inouye's term, which ends on January 3, 2017.

The Hawaii primary elections took place on August 9, but the Democratic primary remained unresolved until August 15 due to areas affected by damage from Tropical Storm Iselle. Schatz narrowly fended off a primary challenge from U.S. Representative Colleen Hanabusa and then went on to defeat the Republican nominee, former State Representative Campbell Cavasso, in a landslide.

Background

Daniel Inouye announced that he planned to run for a record tenth term in 2016, when he would have been 92 years old.[3][4] He also said, "I have told my staff and I have told my family that when the time comes, when you question my sanity or question my ability to do things physically or mentally, I don't want you to hesitate, do everything to get me out of here, because I want to make certain the people of Hawaii get the best representation possible."[5] Inouye died on December 17, 2012.[6] Prior to his death, Inouye left a letter encouraging Governor Neil Abercrombie to appoint Congresswoman Colleen Hanabusa to succeed Inouye should he become incapacitated.[7]

Abercrombie instead appointed the Lieutenant Governor of Hawaii Brian Schatz as U.S. Senator, citing Hanabusa's seniority on the United States House Committee on Armed Services as a chief reason not to appoint her to the position.[8]

Democratic primary

Candidates

Declared

Declined

Endorsements

Polling

Poll source Date(s)
administered		 Sample
size		 Margin of
error		 Brian
Schatz		 Colleen
Hanabusa		 Other Undecided
Hawaii Poll July 21–29, 2014 458 ± 4.6% 42% 50% — 8%
Civil Beat July 24–28, 2014 895 ± 3.3% 49% 41% — 10%
Public Policy Polling July 23–24, 2014 410 ± ? 49% 39% — 11%
Civil Beat May 18–19, 2014 520 ± 4.3% 44% 39% — 16%
Public Policy Polling May 9–11, 2014 606 ± 4% 49% 34% — 17%
Civil Beat February 12–15, 2014 643 ± 3.9% 40% 40% — 20%
Hawaii Poll January 29–February 3, 2014 528 ± 4.3% 40% 48% — 11%
Mellman Group* January 7–13, 2014 800 ± 3.5% 41% 37% — 22%
Civil Beat October 9–10, 2013 549 ± 4.2% 38% 36% — 26%
Mellman Group* June 26–30, 2013 600 ± ?% 38% 37% — 25%
Civil Beat June 18–20 & 24, 2013 869 ± 3.3% 36% 33% 9% 23%
Clarity Campaigns^ June 10–11, 2013 771 ± 3.53% 35% 46% — 19%
QMark Research^ February 2013 500 ± 4.38% 32% 54% — 13%

Delay in election result

Primary elections in Hawaii were held on August 9, 2014. However, two precincts in Puna on Hawaiʻi Island did not open due to damage from Hurricane Iselle, and the approximately 8,255 voters in those precincts instead voted on August 15.[26] The two leading Democratic candidates, Colleen Hanabusa and Brian Schatz, were initially separated by only 1,635 votes, meaning that the final outcome was officially uncertain until voting in Puna was finished.[27][28] However, according to analysis by Hawaii News Now, Hanabusa would need to win approximately 65% of the vote in the outstanding precincts to overtake Schatz, something she had not managed in any other precinct in the state.[29] Thus, Schatz was seen as the likely winner.[30] After voting in Puna was completed, Schatz was declared the winner by an increased margin of 1,769 votes.[31] Hanabusa conceded on August 19.[32]

Results

Democratic primary results[33]
Party Candidate Votes %
Democratic Brian Schatz (inc.) 115,445 49.0%
Democratic Colleen Hanabusa 113,663 48.0%
Democratic Brian Evans 4,842 1.0%
Democratic Blank vote 3,842 1.0%
Democratic Over vote 150 1.0%
Total votes 237,942 100.0%

Republican primary

Candidates

Declared

Declined

Results

Vote totals listed do not include two precincts that will vote on August 15.

Republican primary results[33]
Party Candidate Votes %
Republican Campbell Cavasso 25,874 59.00%
Republican John P. Roco 4,425 10.00%
Republican Harry J. Friel, Jr. 3,477 8.00%
Republican Eddie Pirkowski 2,033 5.00%
Republican Blank vote 8,306 18.00%
Republican Over vote 34 0.08%
Total votes 44,149 100.00%

Libertarian primary

Candidates

Results

Libertarian primary results[33]
Party Candidate Votes %
Libertarian Michael Kokoski 568 79.89%
Libertarian Blank vote 143 20.11%
Total votes 711 100.00%

Independent primary

Candidates

Results

Independent primary results[33]
Party Candidate Votes %
Independent Joy Allison 388 34.8%
Independent Arturo Pacheco Reyes 184 16.5%
Independent Blank vote 540 48.4%
Independent Over vote 3 0.3%
Total votes 1,115 100.0%

Neither of the candidates polled enough votes to meet Hawaii's strict criteria for independents to participate in the general election.[41]

General election

Polling

Poll source Date(s)
administered		 Sample
size		 Margin of
error		 Brian
Schatz (D)		 Campbell
Cavasso (R)		 Other Undecided
CBS News/NYT/YouGov October 16–23, 2014 1,002 ± 6% 70% 18% 1% 11%
Civil Beat October 16–19, 2014 1,221 ± 2.8% 55% 29% — 16%
Ward Research October 11–18, 2014 605 ± 4% 71% 20% — 10%
CBS News/NYT/YouGov September 20–October 1, 2014 1,319 ± 4% 78% 22% 0% 0%
Civil Beat September 11–14, 2014 1,055 ± 3% 62% 25% — 13%
Rasmussen Reports September 9–10, 2014 750 ± 4% 60% 28% 6% 7%
CBS News/NYT/YouGov August 18–September 2, 2014 655 ± 6% 62% 27% 0% 10%
CBS News/NYT/YouGov July 5–24, 2014 1,087 ± 3% 58% 22% 15% 5%

Results

United States Senate Special Election in Hawaii, 2014[42]
Party Candidate Votes %
Democratic Brian Schatz 246,827 69.8%
Republican Campbell Cavasso 98,006 27.7%
Libertarian Michael Kokoski 8,941 2.5%
Total votes 353,774 100.0%

References

  1. ↑ "2014 Calendar of Elections". Hawai'i Office of Elections. Retrieved March 9, 2014.
  2. ↑ "Who Is Brian Schatz, the New U.S. Senator From Hawaii? - David A. Graham - The Atlantic". Retrieved 2014-07-30.
  3. ↑ Manu Raju and John Bresnahan (April 12, 2011). "Sen. Daniel Inouye goes silent on big Hawaiian race". Politico.
  4. ↑ Hamilton, Chris. "The Maui News — Inouye has more he wants to do for (Hawaii Senator emphasizes need for Democrats to remain in control)". The Maui News. The Maui News. Retrieved September 2, 2012.
  5. ↑ Mizutani, Ron (April 26, 2010). "Sen. Akaka: "God willing, I Plan to Run Again in 2012"". KHON2. Retrieved March 3, 2011.
  6. ↑ "Hawaii Sen. Daniel Inouye dies at age 88". Washington Post. Retrieved December 17, 2012.
  7. 1 2 "CNN: Inouye gave preference for successor before he died". CNN.com. December 18, 2012. Retrieved December 18, 2012.
  8. ↑ Lt. Gov. Brian Schatz to Replace Inouye in U.S. Senate | Hawaii Reporter
  9. ↑ Rousseau, Morgan (March 13, 2014). "'At Fenway' crooner Brian Evans running for Hawaii's U.S. Senate". Metro. Retrieved March 15, 2014.
  10. ↑ "Rep. Colleen Hanabusa to challenge Sen. Brian Schatz in 2014 primary". Hawaii News Now. April 23, 2013. Retrieved April 23, 2013.
  11. 1 2 Former Congressman Ed Case Joins Growing List of Democrats Applying for Inouye’s U.S. Senate Seat | Hawaii Reporter
  12. 1 2 Jennifer Bendery (March 31, 2014). "Obama Endorses Brian Schatz In Hawaii's Heated Senate Democratic Primary". The Huffington Post. Retrieved March 31, 2014.
  13. ↑ Chad Blair (December 3, 2013). "Bloomberg to Headline Schatz Reception in Honolulu". Civil Beat. Retrieved July 22, 2013.
  14. ↑ Terkel, Amanda (July 21, 2013). "Al Gore Endorses Brian Schatz In Hawaii Democratic Senate Primary". Huffington Post. Retrieved July 22, 2013.
  15. ↑ KPUA: Harkin backing Schatz in Hawai`i Senate race. July 17, 2013. Accessed February 11, 2015.
  16. ↑ "Elizabeth Warren Sends Fundraising Letter For Brian Schatz". The Huffington Post. June 3, 2014. Retrieved May 29, 2014.
  17. 1 2 "Abercrombie, Schatz receive endorsement for upcoming election | More Local News - KITV Home". Kitv.com. 2014-07-02. Retrieved 2014-07-25.
  18. 1 2 3 "Brian Schatz has been endorsed by...". Archived from the original on October 15, 2013. Retrieved February 4, 2016.
  19. ↑ Archived October 15, 2013, at the Wayback Machine.
  20. ↑ Blair, Chad (September 1, 2013). "No Surprise: Hawaii’s Sierra Club Backs Schatz". Honolulu Civil Beat. Retrieved September 4, 2013.
  21. ↑ "Hawaii News, Honolulu, Honolulu News, Sports, Editorial, Features, Travel and Business - Honolulu Star-Advertiser - Hawaii Newspaper". Retrieved 2014-07-30.
  22. ↑ Former Senator Daniel Akaka endorses Colleen Hanabusa for 2014
  23. ↑ Scheuring, Ian. "Wife of late Sen. Inouye backs Hanabusa for Senate". Hawaii News Now. Retrieved May 3, 2013.
  24. ↑ Fox, Chloe (December 9, 2013). "George Takei Endorses Hawaii Rep. Colleen Hanabusa". The Huffington Post. Retrieved December 10, 2013.
  25. ↑ Burns, Alexander. "Colleen Hanabusa rallies EMILY’s List support". Politico. Retrieved April 23, 2013.
  26. ↑ Blair, Chad (August 11, 2014). "Hawaii Elections Office Announces Plan for Puna Voting on Friday". Honolulu Civil Beat. Peer News. Retrieved August 12, 2014.
  27. ↑ Nakaso, Dan (August 11, 2014). "All eyes on Puna". Honolulu Star-Advertiser. Oahu Publications. Retrieved August 11, 2014. (Subscription required (help)).
  28. ↑ Grube, Nick (August 10, 2014). "Will Hanabusa’s Push in Puna Be Enough?". Honolulu Civil Beat. Peer News. Retrieved August 11, 2014.
  29. ↑ "Puna voters give edge to Schatz in close race with Hanabusa". Hawaii News Now. August 11, 2014. Retrieved September 8, 2014.
  30. ↑ "Does Schatz have edge with remaining Hawaii voters?". Roll Call. August 11, 2014. Retrieved September 8, 2014.
  31. ↑ DePledge, Derrick; Reyes, B.J. (August 16, 2014). "It's Schatz". Honolulu Star-Advertiser. Oahu Publications. Retrieved August 16, 2014. (Subscription required (help)).
  32. ↑ "Hanabusa Won’t Challenge US Senate Election Results". Honolulu Civil Beat. Peer News. August 19, 2014. Retrieved August 21, 2014.
  33. 1 2 3 4 "Primary Election 2014 -State of Hawii – Statewide" (PDF). Hawaii Office of Elections. Retrieved October 24, 2014.
  34. ↑ Blair, Chad (October 22, 2013). "Civil Beat Poll — Schatz Has Narrow Lead Over Hanabusa". Honolulu Civil Beat. Retrieved October 23, 2013.
  35. ↑ Nago, Scott (June 10, 2014). "Hawaii State Certified Filing Report" (PDF). State of Hawaii, Office of Elections. Retrieved June 13, 2014.
  36. ↑ "John Roco announces candidacy for U.S. Senate Hawaii 2014". China Hawaii Today. Retrieved April 12, 2014.
  37. ↑ Ian Scheuring (March 21, 2014). "State GOP chair confirms Djou congressional run". Hawaii News Now.
  38. ↑ Colleen Hanabusa favorite for Daniel Inouye seat - Alex Isenstadt - POLITICO.com
  39. ↑ James Hohmann (November 17, 2013). "GOP’s third shot at Senate: Charm or bust?". Politico. Retrieved November 20, 2013.
  40. ↑ "Former Hawaii Gov. Linda Lingle Returns to CSUN to Teach". CSUN Tday. January 15, 2014. Retrieved June 3, 2014.
  41. ↑ "No Independent Candidate Polls Enough Votes in Hawaii Primary to Advance to General Election Ballot". Ballot Access News. August 10, 2014. Retrieved October 27, 2014.
  42. ↑ "Hawaii General Election 2014" (PDF). Hawaii Office of Elections. 2014-11-04. Retrieved 2014-12-18.
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