Typhoon Nock-ten

Typhoon Nock-ten (Nina)
Typhoon (JMA scale)
Category 5 (Saffir–Simpson scale)

Typhoon Nock-ten approaching the Philippines at peak intensity on December 25
Formed December 20, 2016
Dissipated December 28, 2016
Highest winds 10-minute sustained: 195 km/h (120 mph)
1-minute sustained: 260 km/h (160 mph)
Lowest pressure 915 hPa (mbar); 27.02 inHg
Fatalities 8 confirmed, 16 missing
Damage $104.1 million (2016 USD)
Areas affected Caroline Islands, Philippines, Vietnam
Part of the 2016 Pacific typhoon season

Typhoon Nock-ten, known in the Philippines as Typhoon Nina, was the strongest tropical cyclone ever recorded worldwide on Christmas Day (December 25) in terms of 1-minute sustained winds.[1][2] Forming as a tropical depression southeast of Yap and strengthening into the twenty-sixth tropical storm of the annual typhoon season on December 21, 2016, Nock-ten intensified into the thirteenth typhoon of the season on December 23. Soon afterwards, the system underwent explosive intensification and became a Category 5-equivalent super typhoon early on December 25. Nock-ten weakened shortly before making eight landfalls over the Philippines.[3]

Meteorological history

Map plotting the track and intensity of the storm according to the Saffir–Simpson scale

On December 20, the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) started to monitor a tropical disturbance that had developed to the southeast of Yap. The broad and poorly organized system was being affected by moderate to high vertical wind shear.[4] It was subsequently classified as a tropical depression soon by the Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA), and then the JTWC issued a Tropical Cyclone Formation Alert early on December 21;[5] soon, the JTWC upgraded the system to a tropical depression, with the designation of 30W, based on improved environmental conditions and an ASCAT image.[6] Late on the same day, when central convection was increasing and consolidating over a defined low-level circulation center (LLCC), both the JMA and the JTWC upgraded it to a tropical storm, with the former assigning the name Nock-ten.[7][8] One day later, late on December 22, the JMA upgraded the system to a severe tropical storm, and Nock-ten started to form an eye revealed by microwave imagery.[9][10]

Tracking west-northwestward and then westward along the southern periphery of a deep-layered subtropical ridge, Nock-ten intensified into a typhoon at noon UTC on December 23.[11][12] Immediately after that, explosive intensification commenced with a sharp eye embedded in a symmetric central dense overcast feature.[13] At 06:00 UTC on December 24, Nock-ten reached its peak intensity with estimated ten-minute maximum sustained winds of 195 km/h (120 mph) and the central pressure at 915 hPa (27.02 inHg); therefore, it was the latest-forming typhoon of such intensity or stronger on record.[14] The JTWC also upgraded Nock-ten to a Category 4-equivalent super typhoon, when the system was in an area of low vertical wind shear, excellent dual-channel outflow, and sea surface temperatures of 29 ºC.[15] Although the eye became cloud-filled in the afternoon, it cleared again again late on the same day and while the JMA did not raise its intensity estimate further, the JTWC did so.[16][17]

On December 25, the JTWC reported that the Dvorak technique analyses at 03:00 UTC from "all reporting agencies" indicated a T-number of 7.0;[18] therefore, the JTWC added a non-synoptic entry to the operational best track for that time, indicating one-minute maximum sustained winds of 260 km/h (160 mph), equivalent to Category 5 on the Saffir–Simpson scale.[19] However, land interaction soon impacted the typhoon, as its convective cloud tops had become warmer.[18] Later, Nock-ten made landfall over the Philippines eight times: Catanduanes at 18:30 PST (10:30 UTC) and Sagñay, Camarines Sur at 21:30 PST (13:30 UTC) on December 25; San Andres, Quezon at 02:00 PST (18:00 UTC), Torrijos, Marinduque at 04:30 PST (20:30 UTC), Verde Island, Batangas at 09:15 PST (01:15 UTC), Tingloy, Batangas at 10:10 PST (02:10 UTC), Calatagan, Batangas at 11:40 PST (03:40 UTC), and Lubang Island, Occidental Mindoro at 13:00 PST (05:00 UTC) on December 26.[20]

The eight landfalls significantly eroded Nock-ten, and the structure became much more asymmetric and ragged.[21] Thus, when Nock-ten emerged into the South China Sea early on December 26, it had weakened into a minimal typhoon.[22] Subsequently, although Nock-ten's structure briefly improved, it was downgraded to a severe tropical storm by the JMA and a tropical storm by the JTWC early on December 27, as its LLCC had started to become exposed.[23][24] Poleward outflow was no longer offsetting the effects of strong vertical wind shear, leading to rapid weakening.[25] After the JMA downgraded the system to a tropical storm at 09:00 UTC, Nock-ten further weakened to a tropical depression late on the same day.[26][27] Influenced by a Northeast Monsoon surge, the system accelerated southwestward, and convection was unable to develop over the fully exposed LLCC due to high vertical wind shear and colder dry air.[28] The JTWC issued its final warning for the system early on December 28, and the tropical depression dissipated in the afternoon.[29][30][31]

Preparations and impact

Highest PSWS raised by PAGASA across the Philippines in relation to Typhoon Nina (Nock-Ten)

Nock-ten made eight landfalls in the Philippines.[32] According to the National Disaster Risk Reduction and Management Council (NDRRMC), as of December 27 (PST), a total of 87,059 families were preemptively evacuated in CALABARZON, MIMAROPA, Bicol, and Eastern Visayas region.[32]

As of January 2, 2017, a total of 3 people have been reported dead.[33] The National Disaster Risk Reduction and Management Council (NDRRMC), however, reported only 3 dead, though damages have been reported up to ₱5.18 billion (US$104.1 million).[3]

Retirement

PAGASA has announced that the name Nina will be removed from their naming lists because it had caused over ₱1 billion in damages. On January 17, 2017, PAGASA chose the name Nika to replace Nina for the 2020 season. During the 49th annual session of the ESCAP/WMO Typhoon Committee during 2017, they announced that the name Nock-ten will be removed from the naming lists. A replacement name will be chosen in February 2018.

See also

References

  1. ↑ "Super Typhoon Nock-ten (Nina) Making Landfall on the Philippines on Christmas Day". The Weather Channel. December 25, 2016.
  2. ↑ "#Nockten's current intensity of 155 mph is strongest for TC anywhere around the globe on Christmas (UTC time) on record (since 1960)". Twitter. Phillip Klotzbach. December 25, 2016.
  3. 1 2 "SitRep No.12 re Preparedness Measures for TY NINA (NOCK-TEN)" (PDF). NDRRMC. Retrieved January 2, 2017.
  4. ↑ "Significant Tropical Weather Advisory for the Western and South Pacific Oceans 200600Z-210600Z Dec 2016". Joint Typhoon Warning Center. December 20, 2016. Archived from the original on December 20, 2016. Retrieved December 30, 2016.
  5. ↑ "Significant Tropical Weather Advisory for the Western and South Pacific Oceans Reissued 210330Z-210600Z Dec 2016". Joint Typhoon Warning Center. December 21, 2016. Archived from the original on December 24, 2016. Retrieved December 24, 2016.
  6. ↑ "Prognostic Reasoning for Tropical Depression 30W (Thirty) Warning Nr 001". Joint Typhoon Warning Center. December 21, 2016. Archived from the original on December 21, 2016. Retrieved December 24, 2016.
  7. ↑ "RSMC Tropical Cyclone Advisory 211800". Japan Meteorological Agency. December 21, 2016. Archived from the original on December 21, 2016. Retrieved December 24, 2016.
  8. ↑ "Prognostic Reasoning for Tropical Storm 30W (Nock-ten) Warning Nr 03". Joint Typhoon Warning Center. December 21, 2016. Archived from the original on December 21, 2016. Retrieved December 24, 2016.
  9. ↑ "RSMC Tropical Cyclone Advisory 221800". Japan Meteorological Agency. December 22, 2016. Archived from the original on December 22, 2016. Retrieved December 24, 2016.
  10. ↑ "Prognostic Reasoning for Tropical Storm 30W (Nock-ten) Warning Nr 07". Joint Typhoon Warning Center. December 22, 2016. Archived from the original on December 22, 2016. Retrieved December 24, 2016.
  11. ↑ "RSMC Tropical Cyclone Advisory 231200". Japan Meteorological Agency. December 23, 2016. Archived from the original on December 23, 2016. Retrieved December 24, 2016.
  12. ↑ "Prognostic Reasoning for Typhoon 30W (Nock-ten) Warning Nr 10". Joint Typhoon Warning Center. December 23, 2016. Archived from the original on December 23, 2016. Retrieved December 24, 2016.
  13. ↑ "Prognostic Reasoning for Typhoon 30W (Nock-ten) Warning Nr 11". Joint Typhoon Warning Center. December 23, 2016. Archived from the original on December 23, 2016. Retrieved December 24, 2016.
  14. ↑ Kitamoto, Asanobu. "Typhoon List (105kt or stronger in December)". Digital Typhoon. National Institute of Informatics. Retrieved January 24, 2017.
  15. ↑ "Prognostic Reasoning for Typhoon 30W (Nock-ten) Warning Nr 13". Joint Typhoon Warning Center. December 24, 2016. Archived from the original on December 24, 2016. Retrieved December 28, 2016.
  16. ↑ "Prognostic Reasoning for Super Typhoon 30W (Nock-ten) Warning Nr 14". Joint Typhoon Warning Center. December 24, 2016. Archived from the original on December 24, 2016. Retrieved December 28, 2016.
  17. ↑ "Prognostic Reasoning for Super Typhoon 30W (Nock-ten) Warning Nr 16". Joint Typhoon Warning Center. December 25, 2016. Archived from the original on December 25, 2016. Retrieved December 28, 2016.
  18. 1 2 "Prognostic Reasoning for Super Typhoon 30W (Nock-ten) Warning Nr 17". Joint Typhoon Warning Center. December 25, 2016. Archived from the original on December 25, 2016. Retrieved December 28, 2016.
  19. ↑ "30W.NOCK-TEN Track File". United States Naval Research Laboratory. Retrieved December 24, 2016.
  20. ↑ "SitRep No.7 re Preparedness Measures for Typhoon "Nina" (I.N. NOCK-TEN)" (PDF). NDRRMC. December 28, 2016. Retrieved December 28, 2016.
  21. ↑ "Prognostic Reasoning for Typhoon 30W (Nock-ten) Warning Nr 21". Joint Typhoon Warning Center. December 26, 2016. Archived from the original on December 26, 2016. Retrieved December 28, 2016.
  22. ↑ "RSMC Tropical Cyclone Advisory 260600". Japan Meteorological Agency. December 26, 2016. Archived from the original on December 26, 2016. Retrieved December 28, 2016.
  23. ↑ "Prognostic Reasoning for Typhoon 30W (Nock-ten) Warning Nr 22". Joint Typhoon Warning Center. December 26, 2016. Archived from the original on December 26, 2016. Retrieved December 30, 2016.
  24. ↑ "RSMC Tropical Cyclone Advisory 270000". Japan Meteorological Agency. December 27, 2016. Archived from the original on December 27, 2016. Retrieved December 30, 2016.
  25. ↑ "Prognostic Reasoning for Tropical Storm 30W (Nock-ten) Warning Nr 24". Joint Typhoon Warning Center. December 27, 2016. Archived from the original on December 27, 2016. Retrieved December 30, 2016.
  26. ↑ "RSMC Tropical Cyclone Advisory 270900". Japan Meteorological Agency. December 27, 2016. Archived from the original on December 27, 2016. Retrieved December 30, 2016.
  27. ↑ "RSMC Tropical Cyclone Advisory 271800". Japan Meteorological Agency. December 27, 2016. Archived from the original on December 27, 2016. Retrieved December 30, 2016.
  28. ↑ "Prognostic Reasoning for Tropical Depression 30W (Nock-ten) Warning Nr 27". Joint Typhoon Warning Center. December 27, 2016. Archived from the original on December 27, 2016. Retrieved December 30, 2016.
  29. ↑ "Tropical Depression 30W (Nock-ten) Warning Nr 28". Joint Typhoon Warning Center. December 28, 2016. Archived from the original on December 28, 2016. Retrieved December 30, 2016.
  30. ↑ "Marine Weather Warning for GMDSS Metarea XI 2016-12-28T12:00:00Z". WIS Portal – GISC Tokyo. Japan Meteorological Agency. December 28, 2016. Retrieved December 30, 2016.
  31. ↑ "Marine Weather Warning for GMDSS Metarea XI 2016-12-28T18:00:00Z". WIS Portal – GISC Tokyo. Japan Meteorological Agency. December 28, 2016. Retrieved December 30, 2016.
  32. 1 2 "SitRep No.06 re Preparedness Measures for TY NINA (NOCK-TEN) (p.2)" (PDF). National Disaster Risk Reduction and Management Council (NDRRMC).
  33. ↑ "‘Nina’ leaves 7 dead; 2 provinces under state of calamity". The Manila Times. December 27, 2016.
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