Tasmanian state election, 2014

Tasmanian state election, 2014
Tasmania
15 March 2014
All 25 seats in the House of Assembly
13 seats needed for a majority

  First party Second party Third party
 
Leader Will Hodgman Lara Giddings Nick McKim
Party Liberal Labor Greens
Leader since 30 March 2006 24 January 2011 7 July 2008
Leader's seat Franklin Franklin Franklin
Last election 10 seats; 38.99% 10 seats; 36.88% 5 seats; 21.61%
Seats won 15 7 3
Seat change Increase 5 Decrease 3 Decrease 2
Popular vote 167,051 89,130 45,098
Percentage 51.22 27.33 13.83
Swing Increase 12.23 Decrease 9.55 Decrease 7.78
Premier before election

Lara Giddings
Labor

 Elected Premier

Will Hodgman
Liberal

The 2014 Tasmanian state election was held on 15 March 2014 to elect all 25 members to the House of Assembly.[1] The 16-year incumbent Labor government, led by the Premier of Tasmania Lara Giddings, sought to win a fifth consecutive term against the Liberal opposition, led by Opposition Leader Will Hodgman. Also contesting the election was the Greens led by Nick McKim. Palmer United Party made a significant effort in the election.

The House of Assembly uses the proportional Hare-Clark system to elect 25 members in five constituencies electing five members each. Elections to the Legislative Council are conducted separately from House of Assembly elections. The election was conducted by the Tasmanian Electoral Commission.

Before the election, Hodgman had indicated that he would only govern in majority. ABC News election analyst Antony Green suggested Hodgman's promise could have come back to haunt him if the Palmer United Party, were to siphon off enough votes to deny the Liberals a majority of seats.[2] However, this became moot after the Liberals picked up an additional seat in every electorate except Denison, assuring them a majority.[3] By 10:00 pm on election night, the Liberals claimed victory in at least 14 of the 25 seats, and Giddings conceded defeat on behalf of Labor.[4] Later, Giddings resigned as Labor party leader, and was succeeded by Bryan Green on 31 March 2014.

Results

Tasmanian state election, 15 March 2014[5]
House of Assembly
<< 2010 — next >>

Enrolled voters 366,442
Votes cast 346,423 Turnout 94.54 +0.68
Informal votes 16,432 Informal 4.74 +0.30
Summary of votes by party
Party Primary votes % Swing Seats Change
  Liberal 167,051 51.22 +12.23 15 +5
  Labor 89,130 27.33 −9.55 7 −3
  Greens 45,098 13.83 −7.78 3 −2
  Palmer United 16,198 4.97 +4.97 0 0
  National 2,655 0.81 +0.81 0 0
  Christians 1,215 0.37 +0.37 0 0
  Socialist Alliance 664 0.20 +0.00 0 0
  Independent 4,152 1.27 −1.05 0 0
Total 326,163     25  

Primary vote percentages by division

Bass Braddon Denison Franklin Lyons
Australian Labor Party 23.27% 23.24% 33.79% 28.61% 27.69%
Liberal Party of Australia 57.22% 58.76% 38.28% 49.84% 51.94%
Tasmanian Greens 12.72% 7.03% 21.19% 16.79% 11.40%
Other 6.79% 10.97% 6.74% 4.76% 8.97%

Current distribution of seats

Damage to ballot papers

On 16 March, the day after the election, the Tasmanian Electoral Commission announced that a machine being used to open envelopes containing postal votes from the Denison electorate had been operated improperly, resulting in damage to 2,338 ballot papers. Whilst 2,175 ballot papers were repaired and admitted to the count, 163 papers were too badly damaged to be used and were counted as informal.[6]

Date

Under section 23 of the Constitution Act 1934, the House of Assembly expires four years from the return of the writs for its election, in this case 7 April 2010.[7] The Governor must issue writs of election between five and ten days thereafter.[8] Nominations must close on a date seven to 21 days after the issuance of the writ,[9] and polling day must be a Saturday between 15 and 30 days after nominations close,[10] making the last possible date 7 June 2014.

On 16 January 2014, Premier Lara Giddings announced she would recall Parliament for a single session on 28 January for the sole purpose of ensuring the validity of permits for the Bell Bay Pulp Mill. She said that once the legislation was passed, she would ask the Governor of Tasmania to prorogue the parliament and issue writs for an election to be held on 15 March. Giddings announced that Greens Nick McKim and Cassy O'Connor would be expelled from cabinet as of 17 January, that the power sharing arrangement between Labor and the Greens was over, and that Labor would no longer govern with Greens in cabinet.[11]

The 2014 South Australian state election occurred on the same day for the third time in a row.

Background

The results from the previous election saw a tie between the two major parties, who both won ten seats. The Greens, led by Nick McKim, won five seats and held the balance of power. The outcome in all five multimember seats was two Labor, two Liberal, and one Green. The Liberals were ahead on the popular vote by a margin of over 6,700 votes and both Premier David Bartlett and Opposition Leader Hodgman agreed that Hodgman thus had the right to form a government.[12] Labor went as far as to vote to relinquish power and advise the Governor, Peter Underwood, to summon Hodgman to be commissioned as the new premier.[13]

However, on 9 April, Underwood recommissioned Bartlett, detailing several reasons for his decision including incumbency and a higher chance of stability.[14] The Liberal Party have tabled motions of no-confidence in parliament against the Labor government, but these have been unsuccessful.[15]

An interim cabinet was sworn in on 13 April, with Bartlett as Premier and Labor deputy leader Lara Giddings as Deputy Premier.[16] On 24 January 2011, Bartlett stood down from the premiership to be replaced by Giddings who was elected unopposed as Tasmania's first female Premier.[17][18]

Retiring MPs

Labor

Polling

Polling is regularly conducted for Tasmanian state politics by Enterprise Marketing and Research Services (EMRS). Unlike other pollsters, EMRS don't "prompt" their respondents for an answer on the first request, contributing to the large "undecided" percentage. The sample size for each poll is 1,000 Tasmanian voters.[21]

House of Assembly (lower house) polling
Political parties
ALP Lib Grn PUP Ind Undecided
Feb 2014 20% 44% 15% 5% 3% 13%
Nov 2013 20% 44% 17% 5% 4% 10%
Sep 2013 25% 46% 13% 0% 4% 12%
May 2013 19% 40% 9% – 2% 30%
Feb 2013 23% 44% 11% – 3% 29%
Nov 2012 20% 43% 12% – 2% 24%
Aug 2012 18% 38% 17% – 2% 25%
May 2012 17% 38% 17% – 4% 25%
Feb 2012 19% 39% 14% – 3% 25%
Nov 2011 17% 42% 15% – 2% 24%
Aug 2011 16% 44% 14% – 4% 22%
May 2011 19% 38% 17% – 4% 22%
Feb 2011 20% 36% 20% – 2% 23%
Nov 2010 23% 35% 20% – 3% 19%
Aug 2010 29% 30% 23% – 3% 14%
May 2010 23% 38% 24% – 3% 12%
2010 election 36.9% 39.0% 21.6% – 2.5% –
Feb 2010 23% 30% 22% – 2% 23%
Polling conducted by EMRS.
 Preferred Premier polling^
Labor
Giddings		 Liberal
Hodgman		 Green
McKim
Feb 2014 21% 48% 13%
Nov 2013 22% 47% 12%
Sep 2013 18% 48% 12%
May 2013 25% 46% 10%
Feb 2013 24% 46% 13%
Nov 2012 25% 47% 11%
Aug 2012 22% 45% 15%
May 2012 21% 43% 17%
Feb 2012 24% 44% 15%
Nov 2011 19% 48% 14%
Aug 2011 19% 52% 13%
May 2011 22% 42% 18%
Feb 2011 27% 38% 16%
Nov 2010 23%1 39% 21%
Aug 2010 27%1 34% 22%
May 2010 26%1 40% 23%
2010 election – – –
Feb 2010 29%1 34% 21%
Polling conducted by EMRS.
^ Remainder were "uncommitted".
1 David Bartlett.

See also

References

  1. ↑ "Tasmanian Premier names election date as March 15". ABC News. Australia. 16 January 2014.
  2. ↑ Green, Antony. 2014 Tasmanian election preview. ABC News, 2014-01-17.
  3. ↑ Lehman, Ros (15 March 2014). "Tasmania votes: Liberals sweep to power, ending 16 years of Labor rule". ABC News.
  4. ↑ Atherton, Ben (15 March 2014). "Liberals swept to power in Tasmania, Labor fights to the death in South Australia". ABC News. Australia. Retrieved 15 March 2014.
  5. ↑ "2014 House of Assembly Results". Tasmanian Electoral Commission. Retrieved 30 March 2014.
  6. ↑ Damage to Denison ballot papers, Tasmanian Electoral Commission, 16 March 2014.
  7. ↑ "Parliamentary Elections, 2007–2010" (PDF). Tasmanian Electoral Commission.
  8. ↑ Electoral Act 2004, section 63.
  9. ↑ Electoral Act 2004, section 69.
  10. ↑ Electoral Act 2004, section 70.
  11. ↑ Denholm, Matthew (16 January 2014). "Lara Giddings sets March 15 as date for Tasmania election". The Australian. Retrieved 16 January 2014.
  12. ↑ "Hodgman in box seat after Tasmania count complete". ABC Online. 31 March 2010. Retrieved 10 April 2010.
  13. ↑ Denholm, Matthew (1 April 2010). "Bartlett's Labor gives up power in Tasmania to Will Hodgman's Liberals". The Australian. Retrieved 10 April 2010.
  14. ↑ Hon Peter Underwood AC (9 April 2010). "The reasons of the Governor of Tasmania for the commissioning of the Honourable David Bartlett to form a government following the 2010 House of Assembly Election" (doc). Retrieved 2 December 2010.
  15. ↑ Labor, Greens defeat 'no confidence' move, ABC News, 5 May 2010.
  16. ↑ Media ban as Bartlett government sworn in, ABC News, 13 April 2010.
  17. ↑ "Bartlett confirms resignation on Facebook". Abc.net.au. 23 January 2011. Retrieved 1 February 2012.
  18. ↑ "Tasmanian premier to resign". Smh.com.au. Retrieved 1 February 2012.
  19. ↑ Prismall, Barry (6 June 2013). "Polley retires with House in order". The Examiner. Retrieved 26 January 2014.
  20. ↑ Smith, Matt (30 June 2013). "Giddings' agenda for change". The Mercury. Retrieved 26 January 2014.
  21. ↑ , EMRS, November 2013.

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