Stoke-on-Trent Central by-election, 2017

Stoke-on-Trent Central
by-election, 2017

23 February 2017
The Stoke-on-Trent Central seat in the House of Commons. Elected by simple majority using first past the post. Triggered by resignation of incumbent
First party Second party   Candidate Gareth Snell Paul Nuttall Party Labour UKIP Popular vote 7,853 5,233 Percentage 37.1% 24.7% Swing 2.2% 2.1%   Third party Fourth party   Candidate Jack Brereton Zulfiqar Ali Party Conservative Liberal Democrat Popular vote 5,154 2,083 Percentage 24.3% 9.8% Swing 1.8% 5.7%
Location of Stoke-on-Trent Central within Staffordshire
MP before election Tristram Hunt Labour Elected MP Gareth Snell Labour

There was a by-election in the constituency of Stoke-on-Trent Central on 23 February 2017 following the resignation of Labour's Tristram Hunt, who became director of the Victoria and Albert Museum in London.^[1] It took place alongside a by-election in Copeland.

The election was won by Gareth Snell of the Labour Party with 37% of the vote, a slight decrease compared to the 2015 general election.

Result

By-election 2017: Stoke-on-Trent Central^[2][3]

Party		Candidate	Votes	%	±
	Labour	Gareth Snell	7,853	37.1	2.2
	UKIP	Paul Nuttall	5,233	24.7	2.1
	Conservative	Jack Brereton	5,154	24.3	1.8
	Liberal Democrat	Zulfiqar Ali	2,083	9.8	5.7
	Green	Adam Colclough	294	1.4	2.2
	Independent	Barbara Fielding	137	0.6	N/A
	Monster Raving Loony	The Incredible Flying Brick	127	0.6	N/A
	BNP	David Furness	124	0.6	N/A
	Christian Peoples	Godfrey Davies	109	0.5	N/A
	Independent	Mohammad Akram	56	0.3	N/A
Majority			2,620	12.4	4.3
Turnout			21,200	38.2	11.7
	Labour hold		Swing	2.1

The result was widely described in the media as poor for UKIP, as they did not capitalise on their second place in 2015, Labour's poor standing in opinion polls, and the high support in the constituency for Brexit.^[4]

UKIP's campaign was criticised by former leader Nigel Farage^[5] and major donor Arron Banks, who was critical of Nuttall and UKIP MP Douglas Carswell.^[6][7] Carswell and Banks both left the party at the end of March.

Background

The seat has been held by Labour since its creation for the 1950 general election, and by Tristram Hunt since 2010. The Liberal Democrats were second at the 2005 and 2010 elections, but UKIP came second in 2015. The constituency is set to be reshaped and renamed under the initial proposals of the Sixth Periodic Review of Westminster constituencies.^[8][9]

The seat had a turnout of 49.9% in the 2015 general election,^[10] the lowest turnout in the country.^[11] The electorate is majority working class, with higher than average levels of unemployment. The constituency is entirely urban.^[8]

In the 2016 EU Referendum, Stoke-on-Trent (the whole council area) voted heavily to Leave the European Union: at 69.4%, this was the highest percentage in the West Midlands region. As the constituency is not coterminous with any local authority, the exact result for the parliamentary seat is unknown. However Chris Hanretty, a Reader in Politics at the University of East Anglia, estimated using a demographic model that in Stoke Central, 65.0% of voters voted 'Leave'.^[12]

According to figures released by Stoke-on-Trent City Council, over 2,500 new applications to vote had been received before the deadline for voter registration. This followed campaigns by the council and the Staffordshire University Students' Union to increase registration. The total number of eligible electors was 57,701, an increase of 4.3% on the figure when the election was called.^[13]

Candidates and parties

On 16 January 2017, Jeremy Corbyn appointed Jack Dromey MP to run Labour's by-election campaign.^[14] The Labour shortlist for Stoke-on-Trent Central was confirmed as Councillor Alison Gardner, Dr Stephen Hitchin, Trudie McGuinness, and Councillor Gareth Snell. Hitchin withdrew from the contest prior to the hustings.^[15] Snell was selected as the Labour candidate on 25 January 2017. Snell is a member and former leader of Newcastle-under-Lyme Borough Council, and supported 'Remain' in the EU referendum.^[16] He did not support the re-election of Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn during the 2016 leadership election.^[17]

On 21 January, UK Independence Party leader Paul Nuttall MEP was confirmed as the party's candidate.^[18]

On 23 January, an article in The Huffington Post quoted unnamed Conservative Party sources saying that the by-election in Stoke would be given lower priority than the Copeland by-election on the same day, which the party thought they had a better chance of winning.^[19] On 25 January the Conservatives selected Jack Brereton, councillor for the ward of Baddeley Green, Milton & Norton, as their candidate. Brereton is a member of the Stoke-on-Trent City Council cabinet and is a school governor.^[20] Former Conservative minister Esther McVey had previously suggested that UKIP was significantly better placed to win the Stoke by-election than the Conservatives.^[21]

Dr Zulfiqar Ali, a National Health Service consultant who lives in Stoke, was the Liberal Democrat candidate. He contested the seat in 2015 and Stoke-on-Trent South in 2010.^[22][23]

On 31 January it was announced that Adam Colclough, who has stood in two council elections, would be standing for the Green Party.^[24]

The Christian Peoples Alliance chose Godfrey Davies, a retired Merchant Navy deck officer from Congleton, Cheshire. Davies, whose party is pro-Brexit, planned to revive Stoke's ceramics industry, and stood for conservative positions on marriage and abortion.^[25]

Independent candidate Barbara Fielding-Morriss (standing under the name Barbara Fielding)^[26] is the registered leader of the party "Abolish Magna Carta, Reinstate Monarchy"^[27] and is recorded as a vexatious litigant.^[28]

British National Party candidate David Furness stood for the party in the London Mayoral election in 2016, finishing tenth with 13,325 votes (0.5%).^[29] He has also contested two parliamentary by-elections: Feltham and Heston in 2011 and Batley and Spen in 2016, polling 540 (2.3%) and 548 votes (2.7%) respectively.

The Incredible Flying Brick who lives in nearby Derbyshire stood as a candidate for the Official Monster Raving Loony Party.

Campaign

Early in the campaign, Labour candidate Gareth Snell attacked both UKIP and the Conservatives for their stance on NHS funding, while the Conservative, Brereton, raised Snell's opposition to Brexit in his acceptance speech as Conservative candidate.^[16]

On 1 February, it was reported that nomination papers submitted by UKIP candidate Paul Nuttall declared he was living in a house in Stoke that he had not moved into at the time they were filed, potentially an offence under the Representation of the People Act 1983. A spokesman for the UKIP campaign stated that the house had been rented by the party prior to the close of nominations and that Nuttall would be moving in that day.^[30][31] On 11 February, Nuttall moved out of the house following attempted break-ins and hate mail, and moved to another property in the Stoke Central constituency.^[32]

On 3 February, it was reported by The Guardian that the Labour Party was exploring an agreement with the Liberal Democrats and the Green Party which would involve these parties deprioritising their respective campaigns in this by-election in order to assist Labour in defeating UKIP. The report also suggested that Liberal Democrat and Green candidates could withdraw, although under electoral law the deadline for formal withdrawals has passed and the candidates would remain on the ballot.^[33] On 4 February, a Labour spokesman denied this report when asked by The Independent.^[34]

On 11 February, Paul Nuttall was accused of lying about his claims to have been present at the Hillsborough disaster when he was 12.^[35] A former teacher at his school denied he was among pupils present.^[36] The Hillsborough Families Support Group said they were surprised Nuttall had never offered to support their campaigns, while people who had known Nuttall at the time of the disaster and candidates he had previously stood against said they had no recollection of him mentioning it. UKIP released statements from Nuttall's father and a long-time friend who now works for the party stating that he had been at Hillsborough. Nuttall himself said that those who suggested he was not at the ground were the "scum of the earth" but declined to confirm whether he had given a statement to the police (as everyone at the ground on the day of the disaster has been asked to). A UKIP statement said that the claims were "a new low for the Labour party and its associates".^[35] Nuttall was later challenged on a radio show about past UKIP press releases that he had lost "close personal friends" in the disaster: he admitted this was not true, saying "someone he knew" had died, and said that the press releases had not "come from him".^[37][38] A UKIP press officer subsequently took responsibility and offered to resign, but the resignation was not accepted by Nuttall.^[39] Two UKIP branch chairs resigned in response to Nuttall's actions and comments by UKIP donor Arron Banks on the subject.^[40] On 20 February, Nuttall gave a witness statement to police officers from Operation Resolve, who are investigating the causes of the Hillsbrough disaster and whether there is any criminal culpability on the part of individuals or organisations.^[41]

Social media behaviour of the various parties became a campaign issue, with Snell criticised for historical Twitter posts that were seen to be offensive to women,^[42] and UKIP Immigration spokesman John Bickley criticised for retweeting an Islamophobic cartoon.^[42] Both men apologised publicly.^[42]

Independent Barbara Fielding was arrested under Section 19 of the Public Order Act 1986, i.e. an offence to publish or distribute written material which may stir up racial hatred, because of material published on her website.^[43][44]

On 16 February, it was revealed that Muslim residents had received text messages urging them to vote tactically and suggesting they will have to "answer for this in the Grave and on the Final day" for voting for a party other than Labour. The Liberal Democrats, whose candidate is Muslim, condemned the move, and called on Labour to apologise.^[45][46] The Liberal Democrats later reported the incident to Staffordshire Police, as the incident may breach laws on undue spiritual influence.^[47]

Automated Twitter accounts, which usually posted pro-Russia propaganda, posted anti-UKIP and pro-Labour messages in the run-up to the by-election. A UKIP spokesman said that he was not concerned by the posts, nor did he believe they had been directed by President Vladimir Putin.^[48]

A major storm, named Doris, hit the constituency on polling day, which some commentators suggested would suppress turnout.^[49]

2015 result

General Election 2015: Stoke-on-Trent Central^[50][10]

Party		Candidate	Votes	%	±
	Labour	Tristram Hunt	12,220	39.3	0.5
	UKIP	Mick Harold	7,041	22.7	18.3
	Conservative	Liam Marshall-Ascough	7,008	22.5	1.5
	Independent	Mark Breeze	2,120	6.8	N/A
	Liberal Democrat	Zulfiqar Ali	1,296	4.2	17.5
	Green	Jan Zablocki	1,123	3.6	N/A
	CISTA	Ali Majid	244	0.8	N/A
	The Ubuntu Party	Paul Toussaint	32	0.1	N/A
Majority			5,179	16.7
Turnout			31,084	49.9
	Labour hold		Swing

See also

• List of United Kingdom by-elections (2010–present)
• Opinion polling for the next United Kingdom general election

References