Precision bias

Precision bias is a form of cognitive bias in which an evaluator of information commits a logical fallacy as the result of confusing accuracy and precision. More particularly, in assessing the merits of an argument, a measurement, or a report, an observer or assessor falls prey to precision bias when he or she believes that greater precision implies greater accuracy (i.e., that simply because a statement is precise, it is also true).

Precision bias, whether called by that phrase or another, is addressed in fields such as economics, in which there is a significant danger that a seemingly impressive quantity of statistics may be collected even though these statistics may be of little value for demonstrating any particular truth.

It is also called the numeracy bias, or the range estimate aversion.

The clustering illusion and the Texas sharpshooter fallacy may both be treated as relatives of precision bias. In these former fallacies, precision is mistakenly considered evidence of causation, when in fact the clustered information may actually be the result of randomness.

External links

Truth Versus Precision In Economics, Thomas Mayer, Emeritus Professor of Economics, University of California
"Less Is More: Accuracy vs. Precision In Modeling", Susan Bachman et al. ("Many modelers assume that building with more precision yields a more accurate model.")

Biases
Lists of biases	General Memory
Cognitive biases	Acquiescence Anchoring Attentional Attribution Authority Automation Belief Blind spot Choice-supportive Confirmation Congruence Cultural Distinction Egocentric Emotional Extrinsic incentives Fading affect Correspondence Halo effect Hindsight Horn effect Hostile attribution Impact In-group Mere-exposure effect Negativity Normalcy Omission Optimism Outcome Precision Pro-innovation Response Restraint Self-serving Social comparison Status quo Time-saving Trait ascription Zero-risk In animals
Statistical biases	Estimator Forecast Healthy user Information Lead time Length time Non-response Omitted-variable Participation Recall Sampling Selection Self-selection Social desirability Spectrum Survivorship Systematic error Systemic Verification Wet
Other biases	Academic Exponent Funding FUTON Inductive Infrastructure Inherent in education Media in Vietnam War in Norway in South Asia in Sweden in the U.S. of the Arab–Israeli conflict in 2014 unrest in Ukraine Net Publication Reporting White hat
Bias reduction	Cognitive bias mitigation Debiasing Heuristics in judgment and decision-making

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Precision bias

See also

External links