Polish presidential election, 2010

Polish presidential election, 2010
Poland
20 June 2010 (first round)
4 July 2010 (second round)
Turnout 54.94% (first round)
55.31% (second round)

 
Nominee Bronisław Komorowski Jarosław Kaczyński
Party PO PiS
Popular vote 8,933,887 7,919,134
Percentage 53.0% 47.0%
President before election

Bronisław Komorowski (acting president)
PO

 Elected President

Bronisław Komorowski
PO

Poland
This article is part of a series on the
politics and government of
Poland

The popular election of the President of Poland was held on 20 June 2010. As no candidate received a majority of votes in the first round, a second round was held on 4 July 2010.[1] Bronisław Komorowski, candidate of Civic Platform, defeated Jarosław Kaczyński, candidate of Law and Justice. The global financial crisis, flooding in Poland and the Smolensk disaster were the main themes in the last months of the election campaign.

Background

After President Lech Kaczyński's death in a plane crash on 10 April 2010, the Constitution required the Marshal of the Sejm to declare the date within two weeks, with the election to take place on a weekend within the following 60 days, i.e. 20 June at the latest. On 21 April, the Marshal, Bronisław Komorowski, announced the election date as 20 June 2010.[2] Candidates were required to register by 26 April 2010 (with 1,000 signatures of voters in support) and submit 100,000 signatures by 6 May 2010.[3]

Originally, Kaczyński was up for re-election between 19 September and 3 October; the exact date would have been announced between 23 May and 23 June, before the end of his first five-year term of office.[4]

Two candidates for the election died in the crash. Incumbent Lech Kaczyński was nominated as the Law and Justice party candidate (he had yet to accept the nomination, but it was widely believed that he would do so), and Jerzy Szmajdziński was to have run for the Democratic Left Alliance.[5]

Senate by-elections to fill the three seats whose senators died in the crash – Krystyna Bochenek (PO), Janina Fetlińska (PiS) and Stanisław Zając (PiS, himself elected in a by-election on 22 June 2008 to replace Andrzej Mazurkiewicz) – were held on the same day.[6]

Candidates

In total, 23 candidates (all of them men) registered with the Polish National Electoral Commission on, or just following, the 26 April deadline. 17 of the 23 candidacies were accepted by the commission, whilst the remaining 6 were rejected because they had not gathered the required 1000 signatures.

Only ten candidates collected the required 100,000 signatures and were eligible to run for president.[7]

Rejected candidates

Withdrawn

Dead

Results

First round

There were 10 candidates in the first round of voting. Bronisław Komorowski of Civic Platform received 41.5% and Jarosław Kaczyński of Law and Justice received 36.5%, causing a second round of voting between the two. The other eight candidates were eliminated.[13]

Results of the first round
Results of the second round
 Summary of the 20 June 2010 and 4 July 2010 Polish presidential election results
Candidates – Parties First round Second round
Votes % Votes %
Bronisław Komorowski – Civic Platform (Platforma Obywatelska) 6,981,319 41.54 8,933,887 53.01
Jarosław Kaczyński – Law and Justice (Prawo i Sprawiedliwość) 6,128,255 36.46 7,919,134 46.99
Grzegorz Napieralski - Democratic Left Alliance (Sojusz Lewicy Demokratycznej) 2,299,870 13.68  
Janusz Korwin-Mikke – Freedom and Lawfulness (Wolność i Praworządność) 416,898 2.48
Waldemar Pawlak – Polish People's Party (Polskie Stronnictwo Ludowe) 294,273 1.75
Andrzej Olechowski – independent 242,439 1.44
Andrzej Lepper – Self-Defense of the Republic of Poland (Samoobrona Rzeczypospolitej Polskiej) 214,657 1.28
Marek Jurek – Right of the Republic (Prawica Rzeczypospolitej) 177,315 1.06
Bogusław Ziętek – Free Trade Union "August 80" (Wolny Związek Zawodowy "Sierpień 80") 29,548 0.18
Kornel Morawiecki – on behalf of Fighting Solidarity (Solidarność Walcząca) 21,596 0.13
Total votes for candidates 16,806,170 100.00 16,853,021 100.00
Total valid votes 16,806,170 99.30 16,853,021 98.84
Total invalid votes 117,662 0.70 197,396 1.16
Total votes cast 16,923,832 100.00 17,050,417 100.00
Turnout 54.94%   55.31%  
Source: Electoral Commission, National Electoral Commission

Second round

Voting card in 2nd Round

Soon after exit polls were released in the second round, Jarosław Kaczyński conceded that he had been defeated. Bronisław Komorowski appeared to tentatively claim victory, stating: "Tonight we will open a small bottle of champagne and tomorrow we will open a big bottle."[14] The exit polls put Komorowski ahead of Kaczyński by 53% to 47%.[15] On the following day, Komorowski was declared the winner of the election.[16] The final result put Komorowski with 53.01% of the vote, and Kaczyński with 46.99%.[13]

Komorowski's win resulted in Civic Platform holding both the Presidency and the government (under Prime Minister Donald Tusk).[17] Correspondents in US and British business newspapers suggested that Komorowski's win would mean closer engagement with the European Union,[18] and such domestic economic reforms as deficit reduction.[19]

Opinion polls

First round

Date Institute Candidate Undecided Source
Bronisław Komorowski Jarosław Kaczyński Grzegorz Napieralski Waldemar Pawlak Andrzej Olechowski Andrzej Lepper Janusz Korwin-Mikke Marek Jurek Kornel Morawiecki Bogusław Ziętek
7 May 2010 TNS OBOP 50% 36% 4% 3% 2% 2% 1% 1% 0% 0% – [20]
10 May 2010 SMG/KRC Millward Brown 45% 34% 5% 4% 3% 1% 2% 1% 0% 0% – [21]
12 May 2010 GfK Polonia 41% 28% 4% 0% 3% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 16% [22]
14 May 2010 TNS OBOP 51% 38% 4% 2% 2% 1% 1% 1% 0% 0% – [23]
15 May 2010 GfK Polonia 48% 30% 5% 2% 4% 2% 2% 1% 0% 0% 6% [24]
15 May 2010 Homo Homini 42,2% 35,9% 4,7% 5,7 2,3% 0,6% 0,7% 1,9% 0% 0% 6% [25]
17 May 2010 SMG/KRC Millward Brown 49% 29% 3% 2% 3% 3% 1% 1% 0% 0% 7% [26]
22 May 2010 GfK Polonia 53% 28% 4% 3% 4% 4% 3% 1% 0% 0% – [27]
29 May 2010 Homo Homini 47,6% 32,5% 6,1% 4,2% 1,6% 0,7% 0,6% 0,7% 0,1% 0,1% 5,6% [28]
31 May 2010 SMG/KRC Millward Brown 46% 30% 9% 1% 1% 1% 3% 0% 0% 0% 5% [29]
2 June 2010 PBS DGA 48% 33% 8% 3% 2% 2% 2% 0% 0% 0% – [30]
4 June 2010 SMG/KRC Millward Brown 42% 31% 6% 1% 1% 1% 3% 0% 0% 0% 15% [31]
5 June 2010 Homo Homini 46,5% 32,4% 6,1% 4,4% 2,2% 0,6% 0,4% 0,4% 0,1% 0% 6,4% [32]
7 June 2010 SMG/KRC Millward Brown 43% 32% 8% 3% 2% 1% 2% 1% 0% 1% 5% [33]
9 June 2010 SMG/KRC Millward Brown 45% 31% 7% 2% 2% 1% 2% 0% 0% 0% 5% [34]
12 June 2010 GfK Polonia 42% 29% 11% 4% 1% 1% 2% 1% 0% 0% 9% [35]
16 June 2010 GfK Polonia 48% 34% 9% 2% 2% 2% 3% 1% 1% 1% – [36]
16 June 2010 SMG/KRC Millward Brown 41% 29% 12% 2% 1% 1% 2% 1% 0% 0% – [37]
17 June 2010 TNS OBOP 42% 35% 13% 2% 2% 1% 3% 1% 0% 0% – [38]
18 June 2010 MillwardBrown SMG/KRC 44% 29% 13% 2% 2% 1% 3% 1% 0% 0% 5% [39]

Second Round

Date Institute Candidate Undecided Source
Bronisław Komorowski Jarosław Kaczyński
7 May 2010 TNS OBOP 61% 39% – [20]
10 May 2010 SMG/KRC 54% 41% 5% [21]
12 May 2010 GfK Polonia 53% 34% 13% [22]
14 May 2010 TNS OBOP 55% 39% 6% [40]
17 May 2010 SMG/KRC Millward Brown 58% 33% 9% [41]
2 June 2010 PBS DGA 64% 36% – [42]
4 June 2010 SMG/KRC Millward Brown 56% 35% 9% [43]
9 June 2010 SMG/KRC Millward Brown 54% 36% 7% [34]
16 June 2010 SMG/KRC Millward Brown 60% 40% – [36]
18 June 2010 MillwardBrown SMG/KRC 56% 33% 11% [39]
30 June – 1 July 2010 TNS OBOP 45% 37% 18% [44]
1 July 2010 GfK Polonia 47% 49% 4% [45]
2 July 2010 Millward Brown SMG/KRC 51% 44% 5% [46]
2 July 2010 Homo Homini 47,6% 45,2% 7,2% [44]

References

  1. ↑ "Poland's snap presidential elections set for June 20". BBC News. 21 April 2010. Retrieved 21 June 2010.
  2. ↑ "Poland May Hold Election June 20, Napieralski Says (Update1)". BusinessWeek. 14 April 2010. Retrieved 21 June 2010.
  3. ↑ Sobczyk, Marcin (21 April 2010). "Polish Election Set for June 20 - WSJ.com". Online.wsj.com. Retrieved 21 June 2010.
  4. ↑ Constitution of Poland, Article 128
  5. ↑ "Jerzy Szmajdziński – kandydat SLD na prezydenta" (in Polish). wyborcza.pl. 20 December 2009. Retrieved 22 December 2009.
  6. ↑ "Polish Market Online .:. Polish Market Online .:. What’s next for Poland?". Polishmarket.com.pl. 12 April 2010. Retrieved 21 June 2010.
  7. ↑ jagor, zsz. "Wybory 2010. Dziesięciu kandydatom na prezydenta udało się zebrać 100 tys. podpisów" (in Polish). Wiadomosci.gazeta.pl. Retrieved 21 June 2010.
  8. ↑ "Ludwik Dorn rezygnuje ze startu w wyborach" (in Polish). rp.pl. 20 April 2010.
  9. ↑ "Tomasz Nałęcz rezygnuje ze startu w wyborach" (in Polish). polskieradio.pl. 20 April 2010.
  10. ↑ "Rezygnacja kandydata. Poprze J. Kaczyńskiego?" (in Polish). gazeta.pl. 4 May 2010. Archived from the original on 7 May 2010. Retrieved 4 May 2010.
  11. ↑ "Prezydent Kaczyński nie żyje" (in Polish). se.pl. 10 April 2010. Retrieved 10 April 2010.
  12. ↑ "Jerzy Szmajdziński nie żyje" (in Polish). wp.pl. 10 April 2010. Retrieved 10 April 2010.
  13. 1 2 "Bronislaw Komorowski declared president of Poland". BBC News. British Broadcasting Corporation. 5 July 2010. Retrieved 5 July 2010.
  14. ↑ "Kaczynski accepts Polish election defeat". BBC News. British Broadcasting Corporation. 4 July 2010. Retrieved 4 July 2010.
  15. ↑ "Liberal beats bereaved twin in Polish vote". ABC News. Australian Broadcasting Corporation. 5 July 2010. Retrieved 4 July 2010.
  16. ↑ Gera, Vanessa (5 July 2010). "Komorowski win strengthens Polish government". Associated Press. Retrieved 5 July 2010.
  17. ↑ Foreign, Our (5 July 2010). "Poland's liberals dominate after dead president's twin defeated". The Daily Telegraph. London: Telegraph Media Group. Retrieved 5 July 2010.
  18. ↑ Fairclough, Gordon (5 July 2010). "Poland Vote Strengthens European Ties". The Wall Street Journal. Dow Jones & Company. Retrieved 5 July 2010.
  19. ↑ Buckley, Neil (5 July 2010). "Poland poised for vital reforms". Financial Times. Pearson PLC. Retrieved 5 July 2010.
  20. 1 2 "Wybory 2010: Komorowski – 50 proc., Kaczyński – 36 proc. (TNS OBOP)" (in Polish). gazeta.pl. 7 May 2010.
  21. 1 2 "Wybory 2010. Nowy sondaż. Komorowski bez zmian, Kaczyńskiemu rośnie poparcie" (in Polish). gazeta.pl. 10 May 2010.
  22. 1 2 "Najnowszy sondaż: Komorowski słabnie, Kaczyński 28 proc." (in Polish). Rzeczpospolita. 12 May 2010.
  23. ↑ "Sondaż: ponad połowa wyborców chce zagłosować na Komorowskiego" (in Polish). PAP. 14 May 2010.
  24. ↑ "Sondaż: Komorowski dystansuje Kaczyńskiego" (in Polish). Rzeczpospolita. 15 May 2010.
  25. ↑ "Sondaż: Kaczyński coraz bliżej Komorowskiego" (in Polish). PR. 15 May 2010.
  26. ↑ "Sondaż: duża przewaga marszałka" (in Polish). TVN24. 17 May 2010.
  27. ↑ "Wybory 2010. Sondaż: Kaczyński traci 8 proc. Komorowski wygrywa w I turze" (in Polish). TVP. 21 May 2010.
  28. ↑ "Wybory 2010. Sondaż: Komorowski zyskuje, Kaczyński traci. Będzie druga tura?" (in Polish). PR. 29 May 2010.
  29. ↑ "Kandydat PO prowadzi. Napieralski znów w górę" (in Polish). TVN24. 31 May 2010.
  30. ↑ "Sondaż: Komorowski traci, ale nadal ma prawie 50 proc. poparcia" (in Polish). Gazeta Wyborcza. 2 June 2010.
  31. ↑ "Wybory 2010. Sondaż: Komorowski i PO tracą poparcie" (in Polish). TVN24. 4 June 2010.
  32. ↑ "Wybory 2010. Sondaż: Kaczyński łagodzi wizerunek i nie traci, Komorowskiemu spada" (in Polish). PR. 5 June 2010.
  33. ↑ "Sondaż: liderzy nieznacznie zyskują" (in Polish). TVN24. 7 June 2010.
  34. 1 2 "Wybory 2010. Sondaż: Komorowski rośnie w siłę, ale wygrywa dopiero w drugiej turze" (in Polish). TVN24. 9 June 2010.
  35. ↑ "Liderzy traca, szef SLD zyskuje" (in Polish). Rp. 12 June 2010.
  36. 1 2 "Komorowski – 48 proc., Kaczyński – 34 proc." (in Polish). Gazeta Wyborcza. 16 June 2010.
  37. ↑ "Cztery dni przed wyborami Kaczyńskiemu spada poparcie" (in Polish). gazeta.pl. 16 June 2010.
  38. ↑ "Sondaż: 13 proc. głosów dla Napieralskiego" (in Polish). TVP Info. 17 June 2010.
  39. 1 2 "Wybory 2010. Ostatni sondaż przed wyborami. Komorowski wygrywa, ale w II turze. 56 proc. do 33 proc." (in Polish). Gazeta Wyborcza. 18 June 2010.
  40. ↑ "Sondaż: ponad połowa wyborców chce zagłosować na Komorowskiego" (in Polish). PAP. 14 May 2010.
  41. ↑ "Sondaż: duża przewaga marszałka" (in Polish). TVN24. 17 May 2010.
  42. ↑ "Sondaż: Komorowski traci, ale nadal ma prawie 50 proc. poparcia" (in Polish). Gazeta Wyborcza. 2 June 2010.
  43. ↑ "Wybory 2010. Sondaż: Komorowski i PO tracą poparcie" (in Polish). TVN24. 4 June 2010.
  44. 1 2 (in Polish) Sondaże: Drugą turę wygra Komorowski
  45. ↑ (in Polish) Pomorska.pl
  46. ↑ (in Polish) Ostatni sondaż SMG/KRC przed wyborami: Komorowski górą
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