Oil megaprojects

Oil megaprojects are large oil field projects.

Summary of megaprojects

Megaprojects predicted for individual years

Overview 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

Application to oil supply forecasting

Number of oil fields discovered per decades grouped by average flow rates (left) and corresponding oil volumes (right) in giga-barrels (Gb). Data taken from the annexe B of Twilight in the Desert by Matthew Simmons.[1]

A series of project tabulations and analyses by Chris Skrebowski, editor of Petroleum Review, have presented a more pessimistic picture of future oil supply. In a 2004 report,[2] based on an analysis of new projects over 100,000 barrels per day (16,000 m3/d), he argued that although ample supply might be available in the near-term, after 2007 "the volumes of new production for this period are well below likely requirements." By 2006,[3] although "the outlook for future supply appears somewhat brighter than even six months ago", nonetheless, if "all the factors reducing new capacity come into play, markets will remain tight and prices high. Only if new capacity flows into the system rather more rapidly than of late, will there be any chance of rebuilding spare capacity and softening prices."

The smallest fields, even in aggregate, do not contribute a large fraction of the total. For example, a relatively small number of giant and super-giant oilfields are providing almost half of the world production.[1]

Decline rates

The most important variable is the average decline rate for Fields in Production (FIP) which is difficult to assess.[4][5][6]

See also

References

  1. 1 2 Simmons, Matthew (2005). Twilight in the desert : the coming Saudi oil shock and the world economy. Wiley. ISBN 978-0-471-73876-3.
  2. ↑ "Oil field mega projects" (PDF). 2004.
  3. ↑ "Prices holding steady, despite massive planned capacity additions" (PDF).
  4. ↑ Lawrence Eagles (2006). "Medium Term Oil Market Report" (PDF). OECD/International Transport Forum Roundtable.
  5. ↑ John Gerdes (2007). "Modest Non-OPEC Supply Growth Underpins $60+ Oil Price" (PDF). SunTrust Robinson Humphrey.
  6. ↑ Peter M. Jackson (2007). "Finding the Critical Numbers: What Are the Real Decline Rates for Global Oil Production?". CERA.

Further reading


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