Northern Ireland Assembly election, 2017

Northern Ireland Assembly election, 2017

2 March 2017
All 90 seats to the Northern Ireland Assembly[n 1] 46 seats needed for a majority
Turnout	64.78% (9.8%)
First party Second party Third party   Leader Arlene Foster Michelle O'Neill[n 2] Colum Eastwood Party DUP Sinn Féin SDLP Leader since 17 December 2015 23 January 2017[n 3] 14 November 2015 Leader's seat Fermanagh & South Tyrone Mid Ulster Foyle Last election 38 seats, 29.2% 28 seats, 24% 12 seats, 12% Seats won 28 27 12 Seat change 10 1 Popular vote 225,413 224,245 95,958 Percentage 28.1% 27.9% 11.9% Swing 1.1% 3.9% 0.1%   Fourth party Fifth party Sixth party   Leader Mike Nesbitt Naomi Long Steven Agnew Party UUP Alliance Green (NI) Leader since 31 March 2012 26 October 2016 January 2011 Leader's seat Strangford Belfast East North Down Last election 16 seats, 12.6% 8 seats, 7.7% 2 seats, 2.7% Seats won 10 8 2 Seat change 6 Popular vote 103,314 72,717 18,527 Percentage 12.9% 9.1% 2.3% Swing 0.3% 2.1% 0.4%   Seventh party Eighth party   Leader Jim Allister Eamonn McCann Party TUV People Before Profit Leader since January 2011 N/A Leader's seat North Antrim Foyle (defeated) Last election 1 seat, 3.4% 2 seats, 2.0% Seats before 1 2 Seats won 1 1 Seat change 1 Popular vote 20,523 14,100 Percentage 2.6% 1.8% Swing 0.9% 0.2%
First Minister and deputy First Minister before election Arlene Foster (DUP) & Martin McGuinness (SF) First Minister and deputy First Minister TBD

The 2017 election to the Northern Ireland Assembly was held on 2 March 2017. The election was held to elect members (MLAs) following the resignation of deputy First Minister Martin McGuinness in protest over the Renewable Heat Incentive scandal. McGuinness' position was not filled, and thus by law his resignation triggered an election. It was the sixth election since the Assembly was re-established in 1998, and the first to implement a reduction in size to 90 MLAs (versus the previous 108).

1,254,709 people were registered to vote in the election (26,886 fewer, or a 2.1% decrease, compared to the 2016 Assembly election).^[2] 64.78% of registered voters turned out to vote in the 2017 Assembly election, up 10 percentage points from the previous Assembly election held in 2016, but 5 percentage points less than in the first election to the Assembly held in 1998.^[3]

Eight parties had MLAs in the fifth assembly: the Democratic Unionist Party (DUP), Sinn Féin, the Ulster Unionist Party (UUP), the Social Democratic and Labour Party (SDLP), the Alliance Party of Northern Ireland, the Greens, People Before Profit (PBP), and Traditional Unionist Voice (TUV). There was also one Independent Unionist MLA.

Background

Theresa Villiers, Secretary of State for Northern Ireland, announced in 2013 that the next Assembly election would be postponed to May 2016, and would be held at fixed intervals of five years thereafter.^[4] Section 7 of the Northern Ireland (Miscellaneous Provisions) Act 2014 specifies that elections will be held on the first Thursday in May in the fifth calendar year following that in which its predecessor was elected,^[5] which after 2016 was to be 6 May 2021. However, by virtue of section 31(1) of the Northern Ireland Act 1998, there are several circumstances in which the Assembly can be dissolved before the date scheduled.

Martin McGuinness (Sinn Féin), the deputy First Minister, resigned on 9 January 2017 in protest at the Renewable Heat Incentive scandal (RHI) and other issues, such as the DUP's failure to support funding for inquests into killings during The Troubles and to end funding for an Irish language project. The First Minister, Arlene Foster (DUP), had been in charge of the RHI scheme in her previous ministerial position, but had refused to temporarily stand down as First Minister while an enquiry took place. Under the power-sharing arrangement, McGuinness' resignation as deputy First Minister meant that Foster automatically lost office as First Minister. The DUP condemned his resignation.

Sinn Féin had seven days, until 5 pm on 16 January 2017, in which to nominate a new deputy First Minister, but refused to do so in the Assembly plenary on 16 January.^[6] As a result the Secretary of State for Northern Ireland, James Brokenshire, confirmed the same day that a snap election would be held on 2 March.^[7][8][9]

McGuinness subsequently announced that, owing to ill-health, he would not be seeking re-election to the Assembly; he then stepped down from leading the Sinn Féin group. He was replaced by Michelle O'Neill as leader of Sinn Féin in the Northern Ireland Assembly.

Candidates

Nominations opened on 27 January 2017 for the assembly election and closed on 8 February 2017.^[2]

A total of 228 candidates contested the 90 available seats in the Assembly, a reduction from the 276 who contested the 108 seats available in 2016.^[10]

The table below lists all of the nominated candidates.^[11] Candidates for the same party in a constituency are listed in alphabetical order, which is the order they appeared on the ballot paper.

Gerry Mullan, who was an MLA for the SDLP before the dissolution, stood as an independent after having been deselected by the party.^[12] Jonathan Bell, who was suspended from the DUP, was also standing as an independent.^[13] Both failed to get elected.^[14]

Members not seeking re-election

Campaign

The Renewable Heat Incentive scandal remained central in the campaign.^[22] Sinn Féin said they would not return to government with the DUP while questions over RHI remain over the DUP's leader, Foster.^[23] There were concerns about deteriorating cross-community relationships.^[24] If the two parties emerged as the largest in their communities and could not resolve the issue, direct rule by the UK government could be imposed.

The UUP leader, Mike Nesbitt, promoted the possibility of a UUP/SDLP administration.^[25] He said he would give his voting preference after the UUP candidates to the SDLP, although he said he would not tell UUP voters what to do with their later preferences.^[26] Other UUP candidates opposed the action, saying they will give later preferences to other unionist candidates over the SDLP,^[27] and one UUP councillor resigned from the party in protest.^[28]

The DUP criticised Nesbitt's position and campaigned arguing that splitting the unionist vote could help Sinn Féin come out as the largest party.^[29]

Brexit was also an issue. In the UK-wide referendum on EU membership on 23 June 2016, 56% of voters in Northern Ireland voted to "Remain" a member of the European Union while 44% voted to "Leave". The DUP supported the UK leaving the EU, while nationalist parties and most others opposed, fearing among other things the possibility of a hard border resulting with the Republic of Ireland.^[22][30] It became known during the campaign that the DUP spent £282,000 on a pro-Brexit advert in a newspaper that did not appear in Northern Ireland. The money came from the Constitutional Research Council, a minor pro-union group chaired by the former vice-chair of the Scottish Conservative Party Richard Cook.^[31]

The Alliance Party campaigned on their opposition to sectarianism.^[23] People Before Profit focused on their opposition to austerity.

Opinion polling

Results

Overall results

Party		Leader	Seats				Votes[42]			NI Executive Seats
			Candi- dates	won	Change from 2016	Change from notional	First Preference votes	First Pref. %	Change from 2016	Seats	Change from 2016
	DUP	Arlene Foster	38	28	10	5	225,413	28.1%	1.1%
	Sinn Féin	Michelle O'Neill	34	27	1	4	224,245	27.9%	3.9%
	SDLP	Colum Eastwood	21	12		1	95,958	11.9%	0.1%
	UUP	Mike Nesbitt	24	10	6	1	103,314	12.9%	0.3%
	Alliance	Naomi Long	21	8			72,717	9.1%	2.1%
	Green (NI)	Steven Agnew	18	2			18,527	2.3%	0.4%
	TUV	Jim Allister	14	1			20,523	2.6%	0.9%
	People Before Profit	Eamonn McCann	7	1	1		14,100	1.8%	0.2%
	PUP	Billy Hutchinson	3	0			5,590	0.7%	0.2%
	NI Conservatives	Emma Pidding	13	0			2,399	0.3%	0.1%
	Labour Alternative	Owen McCracken	4	0			2,009	0.3%
	UKIP	None	1	0			1,579	0.2%	1.3%
	CISTA	Barry Brown	3	0			1,273	0.2%	0.2%
	Workers' Party	John Lowry	5	0			1,261	0.2%
	Independents	N/A	22	1		1	14,407	1.8%	1.5%
Total			228	90	18		803,315			10
Electorate: 1,254,709 Total Poll: 812,783 Turnout: 64.78% (9.8%) Invalid Votes: 9,468

Map showing turnout and change in turnout from 2016.

Voting summary

Seats summary

Seat changes compared to a notional result from 2016 with a 90-seat Assembly

Psephologist Nicholas Whyte estimated the likely result in the 2016 election had it been fought with 5-seat constituencies rather than six-seat constituencies. This table shows the different result, and compares the actual result in 2017 to this notional result.^[43]

Party		MLAs elected in 2016	Notional 2016	MLAs elected in 2017	Change from notional 2016 result	Designation
	DUP	38	33	28	5	Unionist
	Sinn Féin	28	23	27	4	Nationalist
	UUP	16	11	10	1	Unionist
	SDLP	12	11	12	1	Nationalist
	Alliance	8	8	8		Other
	Green (NI)	2	2	2		Other
	People Before Profit	2	1	1		Other
	TUV	1	1	1		Unionist
	Independent	1	0	1	1	Unionist
Total		108	90	90

Distribution of seats by constituency

Party affiliation of the five Assembly members returned by each constituency. The first column indicates the party of the Member of the House of Commons (MP) returned by the corresponding parliamentary constituency in the general election of 7 May 2015 (under the "first past the post" method).

(The constituencies are arranged here in rough geographical order around Lough Neagh from Antrim to Londonderry. To see them in alphabetical order, click the small square icon after "Constituency"; to restore this geographical order, click the icon at the left.)

• Three of the four independents elected in 1998 ran as Independent Unionists
• NIWC = Northern Ireland Women's Coalition; Prog. U. = Progressive Unionist Party; TUV = Traditional Unionist Voice; UKUP = UK Unionist Party

Share of first-preference votes

Percentage of each constituency's first-preference votes. Four highest percentages in each constituency shaded; absolute majorities underlined. The constituencies are arranged in the geographic order described for the table above; click the icon next to "Constituency" to see them in alphabetical order.

• [The totals given here are the sum of all valid ballots cast in each constituency, and the percentages are based on such totals. The turnout percentages in the last column, however, are based upon all ballots cast, which also include anything from twenty to a thousand invalid ballots in each constituency. The total valid ballots' percentage of the eligible electorate can correspondingly differ by 0.1% to 2% from the turnout percentage.]

• Independent Unionist vote in 1998 (2.8%) included in the Independent column (not "others"). TUV = Traditional Unionist Voice.

Incumbents defeated

Aftermath

The election marked a significant shift in Northern Ireland's politics, being the first election since Ireland's partition in 1921 in which unionist parties did not win a majority of seats. The DUP's loss of seats also prevents it from unilaterally using the petition of concern mechanism, which the party had controversially used to block measures such as the introduction of same-sex marriage to Northern Ireland.^[44][45]

UUP leader Mike Nesbitt announced his resignation, following the party's failure to make any breakthrough.^[46]

Sinn Féin reiterated that it would not return to a power-sharing arrangement with the DUP without significant changes in the DUP's approach, including Foster not becoming First Minister until the RHI investigation is complete.^[47] The parties have three weeks to form an administration; failing that, new elections would be called.

While unionism has lost its overall majority in the Assembly, the result has been characterised by political analyst Matthew Whiting as being more about voters seeking competent local leadership, and about the DUP having less success than Sinn Féin in motivating its traditional voter base to turn out, than about a significant move towards a united Ireland.^[48]

Secretary of State for Northern Ireland James Brokenshire gave the political parties more time to reach a coalition agreement after the 27 March deadline passed.^[49] Sinn Féin called for fresh elections if agreement could not be reached.^[50] Negotiations were paused over Easter, but Brokenshire threatened a new election or direct rule if no agreement could be reached by early May.^[51] On 18 April, the Conservative Party Prime Minister, Theresa May, then called a snap general election for 8 June 2017. A new deadline of 29 June was then set for power-sharing talks.^[52]

The UK General Election saw both the DUP and Sinn Féin advance, with the UUP and SDLP losing all their MPs. The overall result saw the Conservatives losing seats, resulting in a hung parliament. May has sought to continue as Prime Minister running a minority administration through seeking the support of the DUP. Various commentators suggested this raises problems for the UK government's role as a neutral arbiter in Northern Ireland, as is required under the Good Friday Agreement.^[53][54][55] Talks re-started on 12 June 2017, while a Conservative–DUP agreement was announced and published on 26 June.

A new deadline was set for 29 June, but it appeared that no agreement would be reached in time, with the main sticking point over Sinn Féin's desire for an Irish language act, rejected by the DUP, while Sinn Féin reject a hybrid act that also covers Ulster Scots.^[56] The deadline passed with no resolution. Brokenshire extended the time for talks, but Sinn Féin and the DUP remained pessimistic about any quick resolution.^[57]

Footnotes

References

External links

Manifestos

• Alliance
• DUP
• Green (NI)
• Northern Ireland Conservatives
• People Before Profit Alliance
• SDLP
• Sinn Féin
• Traditional Unionist Voice
• UKIP
• UUP
• Workers' Party of Northern Ireland