Next Valencian regional election

Next Valencian regional election
Valencian Community
No later than 23 June 2019
All 99 seats in the Corts Valencianes
50 seats needed for a majority
Opinion polls

 
Leader Isabel Bonig Ximo Puig Mònica Oltra
Party PP PSPV–PSOE Compromís
Leader since 28 July 2015 31 March 2012 31 January 2015
Leader's seat Castellón Castellón Valencia
Last election 31 seats, 26.6% 23 seats, 20.6% 19 seats, 18.5%
Seats needed 19 27 31
 
Leader Alexis Marí Antonio Estañ
Party Cs Podemos/Podem
Leader since 5 February 2016 21 May 2017
Leader's seat Valencia Valencia
Last election 13 seats, 12.5% 13 seats, 11.4%
Seats needed 37 37
Incumbent President

Ximo Puig
PSPV–PSOE

The next Valencian regional election will be held no later than Sunday, 23 June 2019, to elect the 10th Corts of the Valencian Community. All 99 seats in the Corts will be up for election.

The election will be held after the first regional left-wing government in two decades came to power as a result of the 2015 election, where the People's Party of the Valencian Community (PPCV) suffered a spectacular collapse of popular support.

Electoral system

The 99 members of the Corts Valencianes are elected using the D'Hondt method and a closed list proportional representation, with a threshold of 5 per 100 of valid votes—which includes blank ballots—being applied regionally. Parties not reaching the threshold are not taken into consideration for seat distribution. Seats are allocated to constituencies, corresponding to the provinces of Alicante, Castellón and Valencia. Each constituency is entitled to an initial minimum of 20 seats, with the remaining 39 allocated among the constituencies in proportion to their populations.[1][2] Voting is on the basis of universal suffrage, with all nationals over eighteen, registered in the Valencian Community and in full enjoyment of all political rights entitled to vote. Additionally, Valencians abroad are required to apply for voting before being permitted to vote, a system known as "begged" or expat vote (Spanish: Voto rogado).[3]

The electoral law provides that parties, federations, coalitions and groupings of electors are allowed to present lists of candidates. However, groupings of electors are required to secure at least the signature of 1 per 100 of the electors entered in electoral register of the constituency for which they are seeking election. Electors are barred from signing for more than one list of candidates. Concurrently, parties and federations intending to enter in coalition to take part jointly at an election are required to inform the relevant Electoral Commission within ten days from the election call.[1][4][5]

Elections can be held up to 30 days from the legislature's expiry date, which will take place four years after the previous election.[n 1] The President of the Generalitat Valenciana has the prerogative to dissolve the Corts and call a snap election, provided that no motion of no confidence is in process. Additionally, the chamber is to be automatically dissolved and a new election called if an investiture process fails to elect a regional President within a two-month period from the first ballot.[2][4]

Date

The regional Statute establishes that the term of the Corts expires four years from the date of the previous election, unless it is dissolved earlier.[2] Article 42 of the General Electoral System Law, which is applied subsidiarily to the regional law, sets out the following:

Where, in case of (...) an election to Legislative Assemblies of Self-Governing Communities (...) the President of the respective regional Government does not make use of his prerogative of early dissolution as explicitly contemplated by the law, the election Decree shall be issued on the twenty-fifth day prior to the date of expiry of (...) the Legislative Assembly concerned and published on the following day (...) in the Self-Governing Community's Official Gazette. It shall come into force on the very day of publication and appoint the election day, which shall be on the fifty-fourth day from publication.

The previous election was held on 24 May 2015, which sets the legislature's expiry for 24 May 2019. The election Decree is required to be published no later than 30 April 2019, with the election taking place on the fifty-fourth day from publication, setting the latest possible election date for the Corts at Sunday, 23 June 2019.[4][5]

Background

The 2015 regional election had resulted in the People's Party of the Valencian Community (PPCV) expulsion from the regional government after a 20-year uninterrupted rule. Amid a string of corruption scandals that kept shocking the party and brought down many of its historical leaders and icons, apparently involved in the scandals, the PP found itself leaderless and in a precarious situation.

'Operation Taula', a major police operation in Valencia that took place on 26 January 2016, resulted in the arrest of several former and current high-ranking members from the regional PP branch, as a consequence of the ongoing investigation on the PP's corruption in the region during its time in government.[6][7] Judicial investigation also pointed to former long-time Mayor of Valencia Rita Barberá as a participant in the scandal; her arrest or imputation only being prevented by the fact she had legal protection as an incumbent senator.[8] A few days later, on 1 February, all PP city councillors in the city of Valencia were charged for a possible money laundering offense, including new local party leader Alfonso Novo, as well as most members of Barberá's late government.[9]

Voices within the Valencian PP pointed to the party's refoundation in the region as a regionalist party, in order to try to distance itself as much as possible from the PPCV's past. Interim party leader Isabel Bonig claimed for an extraordinary party congress to be held to rethink the structure and future of the party in the Valencian Community, emphazising its Valencian roots.[10]

Opinion polls

Individual poll results are listed in the table below in reverse chronological order, showing the most recent first, and using the date the survey's fieldwork was done, as opposed to the date of publication. If that date is unknown, the date of publication is given instead. The highest percentage figure in each polling survey is displayed with its background shaded in the leading party's colour. In the instance of a tie, the figures with the highest percentages are shaded. in the case of seat projections, they are displayed in bold and in a different font. The lead column on the right shows the percentage-point difference between the two parties with the highest figures. 50 seats are required for an absolute majority in the Corts Valencianes.

Polling firm/Commissioner Fieldwork date Sample size Turnout Lead
Invest Group/Levante-EMV[p 1] 6 May 2017 ? ? 33.4
37		 25.4
28		 17.3
18		 7.3
8		 7.8
8		 4.9
0		 – 8.0
Sigma Dos/Las Provincias[p 2][p 3] 24–28 Apr 2017 1,200 ? 28.6
32/33		 23.0
25/27		 14.1
14		 11.5
11/13		 14.4
14/15		 2.4
0		 – 5.6
GfK/Compromís[p 4] 25 Apr 2017 1,255 ? 25.0–
27.0		 16.0–
18.0		 25.0–
27.0		 14.0–
16.0		 9.0–
11.0		 4.0–
6.0		 – Tie
Invest Group/Levante-EMV[p 5] 20–27 Sep 2016 750 ? 38.3
41		 24.0
25		 15.6
16		 7.6
8		 8.7
9		 3.3
0		 – 14.3
2016 general election 26 Jun 2016 N/A 72.4 35.4
37		 20.8
21		 w.ALV 15.0
15		 w.ALV w.ALV 25.4
26		 10.0
Invest Group/Levante-EMV[p 6] 31 May–7 Jun 2016 750 ? 25.8
27		 22.3
23		 22.7
23		 13.3
13		 9.9
9		 5.3
4		 – 3.1
2015 general election 20 Dec 2015 N/A 74.8 31.3
34		 19.8
22		 w.EEM 15.8
17		 w.EEM 4.2
0		 25.1
26		 6.2
Invest Group/Levante-EMV[p 7] 28 Sep–2 Oct 2015 1,100 ? 25.7
27		 24.6
26		 19.6
21		 16.1
17		 7.5
8		 3.1
0		 – 1.1
2015 regional election 24 May 2015 N/A 69.6 26.6
31		 20.6
23		 18.4
19		 12.5
13		 11.4
13		 4.3
0		 – 6.0

Notes

  1. ↑ As per Article 42 of the General Electoral System Law of 1985, the election Decree shall be issued on the twenty-fifth day prior to the date of expiry of the Corts and published on the following day in the Official Journal of the Valencian Community, with election day being held on the fifty-fourth day from publication. As a result, an election cannot be held later than the thirtieth day from the date of expiry of the Corts.

Opinion poll sources

References

  1. 1 2 Valencian Electoral Law of 1987, Law No. 2 of March 31, 1987 Official Journal of the Valencian Community (in Spanish). Retrieved on 17 March 2017.
  2. 1 2 3 Statute of Autonomy of the Valencian Community of 1982, Organic Law No. 1 of July 1, 1982 Official State Gazette (in Spanish). Retrieved on 17 March 2017.
  3. ↑ Reig Pellicer, Naiara (16 December 2015). "Spanish elections: Begging for the right to vote". cafebabel.co.uk. Retrieved 17 July 2017.
  4. 1 2 3 General Electoral System Organic Law of 1985, Organic Law No. 5 of June 19, 1985 Official State Gazette (in Spanish). Retrieved on 28 December 2016.
  5. 1 2 "Representation of the people Institutional Act". juntaelectoralcentral.es. Central Electoral Commission. Retrieved 16 June 2017.
  6. ↑ "24 arrested in an anti-corruption operation centered in Valencia" (in Spanish). El País. 2016-01-26.
  7. ↑ "Arrested former PPCV President, Alfonso Rus, in corruption and money laundering charges" (in Spanish). El Mundo. 2016-01-26.
  8. ↑ "Corruption investigation in Valencia points to Rita Barberá" (in Spanish). El País. 2016-01-26.
  9. ↑ "Judge charges all PP city councillors for money laundering of Barberá's illegal funds" (in Spanish). El Mundo. 2016-02-01.
  10. ↑ "The Valencian PP already plans on its refoundation" (in Spanish). El Mundo. 2016-02-03.
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