Navarrese regional election, 2015

Navarrese regional election, 2015
Navarre
24 May 2015
All 50 seats in the Parliament of Navarre
26 seats needed for a majority
Opinion polls
Registered 501,267 3.3%
Turnout 342,173 (68.3%)
0.9 pp

  First party Second party Third party
 
Leader Javier Esparza Uxue Barkos Adolfo Araiz
Party UPN GBai EH Bildu
Leader since 30 November 2014 3 October 2014 11 October 2014
Leader's seat Navarre Navarre Navarre
Last election 19 seats, 34.5% 8 seats, 15.4% 7 seats, 13.3%
Seats won 15 9 8
Seat change 4 1 1
Popular vote 92,705 53,497 48,166
Percentage 27.4% 15.8% 14.2%
Swing 7.1 pp 0.4 pp 0.9 pp
  Fourth party Fifth party Sixth party
 
Leader Laura Pérez María Chivite Ana Beltrán
Party Podemos/Ahal Dugu PSN–PSOE PP
Leader since 14 February 2015 13 December 2014 6 March 2015
Leader's seat Navarre Navarre Navarre
Last election Did not contest 9 seats, 15.9% 4 seats, 7.3%
Seats won 7 7 2
Seat change 7 2 2
Popular vote 46,207 45,164 13,289
Percentage 13.7% 13.4% 3.9%
Swing New party 2.5 pp 3.4 pp
President before election

Yolanda Barcina
UPN

 Elected President

Uxue Barkos
GBai

The 2015 Navarrese regional election was held on Sunday, 24 May 2015, to elect the 9th Parliament of the Foral Community of Navarre. All 50 seats in the Parliament were up for election. The election was held simultaneously with regional elections in 12 other autonomous communities and local elections all throughout Spain.

Outgoing President Yolanda Barcina, having first been elected in 2011, announced on 10 November 2014 that she would not seek re-election for a second term in office.[1] This election was held after 19 years of uninterrupted UPN rule and marked the end of one of the most unstable parliamentary terms in the recent history of Navarre.[2]

Electoral system

The 50 members of the Parliament of Navarre were elected using the D'Hondt method and a closed list proportional representation, with a threshold of 3 per 100 of valid votes—which included blank ballots—being applied regionally. Parties not reaching the threshold were not taken into consideration for seat distribution.[3][4] Voting was on the basis of universal suffrage, with all nationals over eighteen, registered in Navarre and in full enjoyment of all political rights entitled to vote. Additionally, Navarrese abroad were required to apply for voting before being permitted to vote, a system known as "begged" or expat vote (Spanish: Voto rogado).[5]

The electoral law provided that parties, federations, coalitions and groupings of electors were allowed to present lists of candidates. However, groupings of electors were required to secure at least the signature of 1 per 100 of the electors entered in electoral register of Navarre. Electors were barred from signing for more than one list of candidates. Concurrently, parties and federations intending to enter in coalition to take part jointly at an election were required to inform the relevant Electoral Commission within ten days from the election call.[3][6][7]

Elections could be held up to 30 days from the legislature's expiry date, which would take place four years after the previous election. The President of Navarre had the prerogative to dissolve the Parliament and call a snap election, provided that no motion of no confidence was in process, no nationwide election was due and some time requirements were met—namely, that dissolution did not occur either during the first legislative session or within the legislature's last year ahead of its scheduled expiry, nor before one year had elapsed since a previous dissolution under this procedure—. Additionally, the chamber was to be automatically dissolved and a new election called if an investiture process failed to elect a regional President within a three-month period from the election date.[4][6]

Background

The 2011 regional election had resulted in a coalition agreement between Navarrese People's Union and the Spanish Socialist Workers' Party, with UPN leader Yolanda Barcina being elected as President.[8] However, tension remained frequent between both coalition partners,[9] and in June 2012, PSN-PSOE leader and then-Vice President of Navarre Roberto Jiménez' questioning of a UPN's decision to pass an additional budget cut of 132 billion euros resulted in his expulsion from Barcina's Cabinet. The PSOE withdrew from the regional government, leaving UPN in minority.[10][11] As a consequence, with the left-wing opposition commanding a majority in Parliament, political instability marked the remainder of the legislature, with the government being unable to pass its bills into law or to successfully approve further budgets.[12]

The eruption of the Caja Navarra scandal in early 2013, involving President Barcina and other UPN high-ranking members,[13][14] resulted in an ill-fated attempt by Bildu and Aralar / Nafarroa Bai to bring forward a censure motion against Yolanda Barcina, which had no realistic prospect of succeeding because of PSN abstention.[15] Additionally, dissent within Barcina's party materialized with party Vice President Alberto Catalán forcing a leadership election in March 2013 which Barcina was only narrowly able to win.[16] In February 2014, Finance Counselor Lourdes Goicoechea was accused of influence peddling within the regional Treasury,[17][18] prompting Roberto Jiménez to threaten Barcina with a censure motion if she did not voluntarily call for a snap regional election.[19][20] The PSOE national leadership, however, explicitly forbid its regional branch from reaching any kind of agreement that needed Bildu's support, and Jiménez backed down on his threat as a consequence.[21]

The PSN-PSOE was severely mauled in the same year European Parliament election, winning just 14.5% compared to the 31.5% it had won in 2009, and losing over half of its 2009 votes (31,629 compared to 63,848 in 2009). Roberto Jiménez resigned as PSN leader, being succeeded by María Chivite.[22][23] The abertzale left represented under EH Bildu's flag, on the other hand, became the second political force of the community for the first time ever, with 20.2% of the vote.

Podemos' emergence in opinion polls marked the end of the legislature and into 2015. Yolanda Barcina, initially widely scheduled to stand for re-election,[24] announced on 10 November 2014 that she would not stand for a second term as President of Navarre.[1] A primary election was held on 29 November 2014, in which incumbent Local Government Counselor José Javier Esparza defeated Alberto Catalán and became UPN candidate for the 2015 regional election.[25]

Opinion polls

Individual poll results are listed in the table below in reverse chronological order, showing the most recent first, and using the date the survey's fieldwork was done, as opposed to the date of publication. If that date is unknown, the date of publication is given instead. The highest percentage figure in each polling survey is displayed with its background shaded in the leading party's colour. In the instance of a tie, the figures with the highest percentages are shaded. Seat projections are displayed in bold and in a different font. The lead column on the right shows the percentage-point difference between the two parties with the highest figures. 26 seats were required for an absolute majority in the Parliament of Navarre.

Color key:

  Exit poll

Results

← Summary of the 24 May 2015 Parliament of Navarre election results →
Parties and coalitions Popular vote Seats
Votes % ±pp Won +/−
Navarrese People's Union (UPN) 92,705 27.44 –7.04 15 –4
Yes to the Future (GBai)1 53,497 15.83 +0.42 9 +1
Basque Country Unite (EH Bildu) 48,166 14.25 +0.97 8 +1
We Can (Podemos/Ahal Dugu) 46,207 13.67 New 7 +7
Socialist Party of Navarre (PSN–PSOE) 45,164 13.37 –2.48 7 –2
People's Party (PP) 13,289 3.93 –3.36 2 –2
Left (I–E) 12,482 3.69 –2.02 2 –1
Citizens–Party of the Citizenry (C's) 9,993 2.96 New 0 ±0
Blank ballots 6,610 1.96 –0.56
Total 337,895 100.00 50 ±0
Valid votes 337,895 98.75 –0.02
Invalid votes 4,278 1.25 +0.02
Votes cast / turnout 342,173 68.26 +0.83
Abstentions 159,094 31.74 –0.83
Registered voters 501,267
Source(s): Argos Information Portal, historiaelectoral.com
Popular vote
UPN
  
 27.44%
GBai
  
 15.83%
EH Bildu
  
 14.25%
Podemos
  
 13.67%
PSN–PSOE
  
 13.37%
PP
  
 3.93%
I–E
  
 3.69%
C's
  
 2.96%
Others
  
 2.89%
Blank ballots
  
 1.96%
Seats
UPN
  
 30.00%
GBai
  
 18.00%
EH Bildu
  
 16.00%
Podemos
  
 14.00%
PSN–PSOE
  
 14.00%
PP
  
 4.00%
I–E
  
 4.00%

Aftermath

Investiture

Investiture processes to elect the President of Navarre required for an absolute majority—more than half the votes cast—to be obtained in the first ballot. If unsuccessful, a new ballot would be held 24 hours later requiring only of a simple majority—more affirmative than negative votes—to succeed. If such majorities were not achieved, successive candidate proposals would be processed under the same procedure. In the event of the investiture process failing to elect a regional President within a three-month period from the election date, the Parliament would be automatically dissolved and a snap election called.[4]

Investiture of
Uxue Barkos (GBai)		 Yes No Abstentions
20 July 2015 (1st ballot)
(26/50 required)		 26 • GBai (9)
• EH Bildu (8)
• Podemos (7)
• I–E (2)		 17 • UPN (15)
• PP (2)		 7 • PSN–PSOE (7)
Source: historiaelectoral.com

Opinion poll sources

  1. ↑ "Encuestas y resultados - elecciones autonómicas y municipales del 24 de mayo de 2015". GAD3 (in Spanish). 28 May 2015.
  2. ↑ "Rajoy cree un éxito ser el más votado aunque pierda plazas simbólicas". ABC (in Spanish). 17 May 2015.
  3. ↑ "Comunidad Foral de Navarra" (PDF). La Razón (in Spanish). 17 May 2015.
  4. ↑ "UPN se estanca y el cambio se abre paso con una participación histórica". Diario de Noticias (in Spanish). 17 May 2015.
  5. ↑ "Ligera recuperación de UPN (15-16) y leve caída de Geroa Bai (8) y Podemos (7-8)". Diario de Navarra (in Spanish). 17 May 2015.
  6. ↑ "NAVARRA, Mayo 2015. Sondeo CIES". Electograph (in Spanish). 17 May 2015.
  7. ↑ "Encuesta preelectoral". Inpactos (in Spanish). 25 May 2015.
  8. ↑ "Ficha técnica". Inpactos (in Spanish). 14 May 2015.
  9. ↑ "NAVARRA, Abril 2015. Sondeo Inpactos". Electograph (in Spanish). 30 April 2015.
  10. ↑ "Preelectoral elecciones autonómicas 2015. Comunidad Foral de Navarra (Estudio nº 3075. Marzo-abril 2015)" (PDF). CIS (in Spanish). 7 May 2015.
  11. ↑ "NAVARRA, Abril 2015. Sondeo CIES". Electograph (in Spanish). 26 April 2015.
  12. ↑ "NAVARRA, Marzo 2015. Sondeo Herkap". Electograph (in Spanish). 10 April 2015.
  13. ↑ "El desplome de UPN abre la puerta al cambio". Diario de Noticias (in Spanish). 22 March 2015.
  14. ↑ "El PP seguirá siendo el más votado en las CC AA pese a la caída en apoyos". La Razón (in Spanish). 20 April 2015.
  15. ↑ "Comunidad Foral de Navarra: Bajo amenaza abertzale". La Razón (in Spanish). 20 April 2015.
  16. ↑ "Comunidad Foral de Navarra" (PDF). La Razón (in Spanish). 20 April 2015.
  17. ↑ "Los sociólogos ponen en duda los resultados del 'navarrómetro'". Diario de Navarra (in Spanish). 28 November 2014.
  18. ↑ "Estudio sobre la actualidad de Navarra. Informe de Resultados. Noviembre 2014" (PDF). Grupo Orbere (in Spanish). 21 November 2014.
  19. ↑ "El reparto del poder territorial en España en 2015" (PDF). desarrollando-ideas.com (in Spanish). 31 October 2014.
  20. ↑ "Estimación de voto y escaños en el Parlamento Foral" (PDF). Naiz (in Spanish). 7 December 2014.
  21. ↑ "C. F. NAVARRA, Noviembre 2014. Sondeo Torrene Consulting". desarrollando-ideas.com (in Spanish). 7 December 2014.
  22. ↑ "Proyección del resultado de las europeas en los parlamentos autonómicos". El País (in Spanish). 31 May 2014.
  23. ↑ "Encuesta marzo 2014". Ahotsa (in Spanish). 8 March 2014.
  24. ↑ "COMUNIDAD FORAL DE NAVARRA, Febrero 2014. Inpactos". Electograph (in Spanish). 8 March 2014.
  25. ↑ "El PP ganaría de nuevo en 9 de 13 autonomías". La Razón (in Spanish). 18 November 2013.
  26. ↑ "Encuesta autonómicas NC Report noviembre 2013" (PDF). La Razón (in Spanish). 18 November 2013.
  27. ↑ "Una encuesta predice el desplome UPN-PP y la posibilidad de un gobierno entre PSN, Geroa Bai e I-E". Diario de Noticias (in Spanish). 30 September 2013.
  28. ↑ "Vuelco por el cambio en Navarra" (PDF). Diario de Noticias (in Spanish). 8 June 2013.
  29. ↑ "Encuesta Gizaker". Diario de Noticias (in Spanish). 8 June 2013.
  30. ↑ "El PP mantiene el poder autonómico". La Razón (in Spanish). 13 May 2013.
  31. ↑ "Necesitaría pactos para gobernar en Navarra, Asturias, Canarias, Extremadura y Aragón". La Razón (in Spanish). 13 May 2013.
  32. ↑ "El PP ganaría en la mayoría de las autonomías (La Razón)". Electómetro (in Spanish). 13 May 2013. Archived from the original on 4 March 2016.
  33. ↑ "Navarra: ¿Uxue Presidenta?". El mundo en cifras (in Spanish). 10 May 2013.
  34. ↑ "Amaiur sería el primer grupo en el Parlamento de Gasteiz". Gara (in Spanish). 23 April 2012.

References

  1. 1 2 "Barcina will not seek re-election in 2015" (in Spanish). Diario de Navarra. 2014-11-10.
  2. ↑ "Requiem for the 8th Legislature of Navarre" (in Spanish). El País. 2014-02-15.
  3. 1 2 Parliament of Navarre Elections Foral Law of 1986, Law No. 16 of December 17, 1986 Official Gazette of Navarre (in Spanish). Retrieved on 18 June 2017.
  4. 1 2 3 Reintegration and Enhancement of the Foral Regime of Navarre Law of 1982, Organic Law No. 13 of August 10, 1982 Official State Gazette (in Spanish). Retrieved on 18 June 2017.
  5. ↑ Reig Pellicer, Naiara (16 December 2015). "Spanish elections: Begging for the right to vote". cafebabel.co.uk. Retrieved 17 July 2017.
  6. 1 2 General Electoral System Organic Law of 1985, Organic Law No. 5 of June 19, 1985 Official State Gazette (in Spanish). Retrieved on 28 December 2016.
  7. ↑ "Representation of the people Institutional Act". juntaelectoralcentral.es. Central Electoral Commission. Retrieved 16 June 2017.
  8. ↑ "UPN and PSN reach an agreement for a "solid" government in Navarre" (in Spanish). El País. 2011-06-18.
  9. ↑ "UPN will govern in minority after breaking with the PSN" (in Spanish). El País. 2012-06-15.
  10. ↑ "PSN-PSOE announces a Cabinet crisis in Navarre because of the budget cut" (in Spanish). El País. 2012-06-01.
  11. ↑ "The UPN-PSN agreement breaks apart before its 1st birthday" (in Spanish). Diario de Navarra. 2012-06-15.
  12. ↑ "The regional Parliament rejects the 2015 budgets and Navarre will run on an extended budget for a third time" (in Spanish). El Diario. 2014-11-25.
  13. ↑ "Caja Navarra paid up to 2,680 euros to UPN officials for one-hour meetings" (in Spanish). El País. 2013-03-07.
  14. ↑ "Caja Navarra's opaque bonuses trap Barcina" (in Spanish). El País. 2013-06-05.
  15. ↑ "PSN's abstention saves Yolanda Barcina from the censure motion" (in Spanish). El Mundo. 2013-04-18.
  16. ↑ "Barcina wins absolute control over a divided UPN amidst the Caja Navarra's bonuses crisis" (in Spanish). El Diario. 2013-03-17.
  17. ↑ "Nieves blames the counselor for "meddling" and continued "interference"" (in Spanish). Diario de Navarra. 2014-02-12.
  18. ↑ "Former Treasury Director lit the fuse" (in Spanish). El Mundo. 2014-02-13.
  19. ↑ "PSN announces a motion of censura if Barcina does not call for a snap election" (in Spanish). Antena 3. 2014-02-12.
  20. ↑ "I told her that Foral Treasury data were not available for private use" (in Spanish). El Diario. 2014-02-14.
  21. ↑ "The PSOE renounces to a censure motion in Navarre to prevent needing Bildu's support" (in Spanish). El País. 2014-03-05.
  22. ↑ "Roberto Jiménez proposes a primary election and an extraordinary PSN party congress for this year, and announces he will not stand for election" (in Spanish). Diario de Navarra. 2014-05-27.
  23. ↑ "Senator María Chívite, new leader of the Navarrese Socialists" (in Spanish). El Mundo. 2014-12-13.
  24. ↑ "Barcina will lead UPN into the next election" (in Spanish). Diario de Navarra. 2014-08-30.
  25. ↑ "Esparza defeats Alberto Catalán and will be UPN candidate to the Government of Navarre" (in Spanish). El Diario. 2014-11-29.
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