Next National Assembly for Wales election

National Assembly for Wales election, 2021
Wales
6 May 2021
All 60 seats to the National Assembly for Wales
31 seats needed for a majority

  First party Second party Third party
 
Leader Carwyn Jones Andrew R. T. Davies Leanne Wood
Party Labour Conservative Plaid Cymru
Leader since 10 December 2009 14 July 2011 16 March 2012
Leader's seat Bridgend South Wales Central Rhondda
Last election 29 seats 11 seats 12 seats
Seats before 29 12[1] 11
  Fourth party Fifth party
 
Leader Neil Hamilton Kirsty Williams
Party UKIP Liberal Democrats
Leader since 26 September 2016 16 June 2017
(Acting)
Leader's seat Mid & West Wales Brecon and Radnorshire
Last election 7 seats 1 seat
Seats before 5 1
First Minister before election

Carwyn Jones
Labour-Liberal Democrat coalition

 Elected First Minister

TBD

Wales
This article is part of a series on the
politics and government of
Wales

The next National Assembly for Wales election is due to be held on Thursday 6 May 2021[2] to elect 60 members to the Welsh Assembly. It would be the sixth general election since the assembly was established in 1999.

Five parties had AMs in the fifth Assembly: Welsh Labour led by First Minister Carwyn Jones, Plaid Cymru led by Leanne Wood, Welsh Conservatives led by Andrew R. T. Davies, UKIP Wales led by Neil Hamilton, and the Welsh Liberal Democrats, led by Kirsty Williams.

Electoral method

In general elections for the National Assembly for Wales, each voter has two votes in a mixed member system. The first vote is for a candidate to become the Assembly Member for the voter's constituency, elected by the first past the post system. The second vote is for a regional closed party list of candidates. Additional member seats are allocated from the lists by the d'Hondt method, with constituency results being taken into account in the allocation. The overall result is approximately proportional.

In accordance to the Wales Act 2014, a candidate is allowed to stand in both a constituency, as well as a regional list. However, holding a dual mandate with the House of Commons is illegal, meaning an Assembly Member can not also be an MP.

Opinion polls

Constituency Vote (FPTP)

Date(s)
conducted 		Polling organisation/client Sample sizeLab Cons Plaid UKIP Lib Dem Others Lead
18-21 May 2017 YouGov/Welsh Political Barometer 1,025 40% 27% 20% 5% 6% 3% 13%
5-7 May 2017 YouGov/Welsh Political Barometer ~1,000 33% 33% 20% 3% 7% 4% Tie
19-20 Apr 2017 YouGov/Welsh Political Barometer 1,034 29% 30% 22% 8% 8% 3% 1%
3-6 Jan 2017 YouGov/Welsh Political Barometer 1,034 31% 25% 21% 12% 8% 3% 6%
18-21 Sep 2016 YouGov/Welsh Political Barometer 1,001 34% 24% 20% 13% 6% 3% 10%
30 Jun-4 Jul 2016 YouGov/Welsh Political Barometer 1,010 32% 19% 23% 16% 7% 3% 9%
30 May-2 Jun 2016 YouGov/Welsh Political Barometer 1,017 34% 18% 23% 15% 7% 3% 11%
5 May 2016 Assembly election (constituency) 1,013,383 34.7% 21.1% 20.5% 12.5% 7.7% 2.8% 13.6%

Regional Vote (AMS)

Date(s)
conducted 		Polling organisation/client Sample sizeLab Plaid Cons UKIP Lib Dem Abolish Assembly Green Others Lead
18-21 May 2017 Welsh Political Barometer 1,025 37% 19% 26% 5% 5% 3% 3% 2% 11%
5-7 May 2017 Welsh Political Barometer ~1,000 31% 20% 32% 5% 6% 3% 3% 2% 1%
19-21 Apr 2017 Welsh Political Barometer 1,034 27% 20% 28% 9% 6% 3% 5% 2% 1%
3-6 Jan 2017 Welsh Political Barometer 1,034 28% 20% 22% 14% 7% 4% 2% 1% 6%
18-21 Sep 2016 Welsh Political Barometer 1,001 29% 21% 22% 13% 6% 4% 3% 3% 7%
30 Jun-4 Jul '16 Welsh Political Barometer 1,010 29% 24% 18% 15% 6% 3% 4% 3% 5%
30 May-2 Jun '16 Welsh Political Barometer 1,017 32% 21% 18% 14% 6% 4% 4% 0% 11%
5 May 2016 Assembly election (regional) 1,005,541 31.5% 20.8% 18.8% 13.0% 6.5% 4.4% 3.0% 2.1% 10.7%

Target seats

Below are listed all the constituencies which required a swing of less than 7.5% from the 2016 result to change hands.

Labour targets

Rank Constituency Winning party 2016 Swing to gain Labour's place 2016 Result
1 Aberconwy Conservative 3.35 3rd
2 Camarthen West and South Pembrokeshire Conservative 5.75 2nd
3 Preseli Pembrokeshire Conservative 6.8 2nd
4 Rhondda Plaid Cymru 7.35 2nd

Plaid Cymru targets

Rank Constituency Winning party 2016 Swing to gain PC's place 2016 Result
1 Llanelli Labour 0.65 2nd
2 Blaenau Gwent Labour 1.55 2nd
3 Aberconwy Conservative 1.7 2nd
4 Cardiff West Labour 1.85 2nd
5 Caerphilly Conservative 2.9 2nd
6 Neath Labour 5.75 2nd

Conservative targets

Rank Constituency Winning party 2007 Swing to gain Con's place 2007 Result
1 Vale of Glamorgan Labour 1.05 2nd
2 Vale of Clwyd Labour 1.55 2nd
3 Gower Labour 3.05 2nd
4 Wrexham Labour 3.25 2nd
5 Cardiff North Labour 4.9 2nd
6 Clwyd South Labour 6.8 2nd

Liberal Democrat targets

Rank Constituency Winning party 2016 Swing to gain LD's place 2016 Result
1 Cardiff Central Labour 1.55 2nd
2 Ceredigion Plaid Cymru 4.1 2nd
3 Montgomeryshire Conservative 7.05 2nd

Footnotes

    References

    1. ↑ Includes 1 Independent Conservative
    2. ↑ "Wales Bill (Dates)" (PDF). publications.parliament.uk. Retrieved 7 Oct 2016.
    This article is issued from Wikipedia. The text is licensed under Creative Commons - Attribution - Sharealike. Additional terms may apply for the media files.