Madrilenian regional election, 2015

Madrilenian regional election, 2015
Community of Madrid
24 May 2015
All 129 seats in the Assembly of Madrid
65 seats needed for a majority
Opinion polls
Registered 4,880,495 5.6%
Turnout 3,205,931 (65.7%)
0.2 pp

  First party Second party Third party
 
Leader Cristina Cifuentes Ángel Gabilondo José Manuel López
Party PP PSOE Podemos
Leader since 6 March 2015 21 February 2015 1 April 2015
Leader's seat Madrid Madrid Madrid
Last election 72 seats, 51.7% 36 seats, 26.3% Did not contest
Seats won 48 37 27
Seat change 24 1 27
Popular vote 1,050,256 807,385 591,697
Percentage 33.1% 25.4% 18.6%
Swing 18.6 pp 0.9 pp New party
  Fourth party Fifth party Sixth party
 
Leader Ignacio Aguado Luis García Montero Ramón Marcos
Party C's IUCM–LV UPyD
Leader since 2 March 2015 27 February 2015 18 October 2014
Leader's seat Madrid Madrid (lost) Madrid (lost)
Last election 0 seats, 0.2% 13 seats, 9.6% 8 seats, 6.3%
Seats won 17 0 0
Seat change 17 13 8
Popular vote 385,836 132,207 64,643
Percentage 12.2% 4.2% 2.0%
Swing 12.0 pp 5.4 pp 4.3 pp
President before election

Ignacio González
PP

 Elected President

Cristina Cifuentes
PP

The 2015 Madrilenian regional election was held on Sunday, 24 May 2015, to elect the 10th Assembly of the Community of Madrid. All 129 seats in the Assembly were up for election. The election was held simultaneously with regional elections in 12 other autonomous communities and local elections all throughout Spain.

The ruling People's Party (PP) emerged once again as the largest political force in the region, but it saw a substantial drop in its vote support and the loss of the absolute majority it had held almost uninterruptedly since 1995—with a brief interlude in 2003—. However, as both the Spanish Socialist Workers' Party (PSOE) and newcomer Podemos fell one seat short of an absolute majority, it meant that the PP could remain in government through an agreement with liberal Citizens (C's). As a result, Cristina Cifuentes became the new President of the Community of Madrid, forming a minority government with C's providing confidence and supply. Cifuentes would be the third regional President in three years, after Esperanza Aguirre's resignation in 2012 and incumbent President Ignacio González not running for the office as a result of several scandals.

The strong performance of both Podemos and C's was at the expense of left-wing United Left (IU)—which lost its parliamentary representation for the first time in history as a result of not reaching the required 5% threshold—and Union, Progress and Democracy (UPyD), whose parliamentary presence was ephemeral having only entered the regional parliament in 2011 for the first time.

Background

After the 2011 regional election, the People's Party was re-elected for a fourth consecutive term in office with an absolute majority of seats, with the Spanish Socialist Workers' Party under Tomás Gómez obtaining the worst result of its history in the region. President Esperanza Aguirre, which had renewed the office for a third term (Aguirre had succeeded Alberto Ruiz-Gallardón as regional premier in 2003), resigned on 17 September 2012, allegedly a result of health issues, but also for "personal reasons". She was succeeded in the Presidency by her Deputy, Ignacio González.[1]

Opinion polls from 2012 predicted a drop in vote support for the People's Party, to the point that it could lose the absolute majority it had enjoyed from 2003. The same polls had shown that the PSOE remained unable to capitalize on the PP government electoral wear. On the 2014 European Parliament election, both parties obtained historic lows: with 29.9%, the People's Party result in the region was the lowest since the 1989 election, while PSOE's result at 18.9% was the party's lowest score ever. Newly created party Podemos was able to poll at 11.3%, placing itself as the third political force of the community and within striking distance of the PSOE.[2] Podemos' growth in opinion polls since mid-to-late 2014 at the expense of PSOE's vote spectrum inspired fears within the party that it could be displaced to third place both regionally and nationally, thus ceasing to be the main reference party of the left ideology in both Spain and Madrid.[3]

On 11 February 2015, PSOE Secretary-General Pedro Sánchez removed Tomás Gómez, PSM candidate for the 2015 election,[4] from the party's regional leadership.[5][6] The decision came, allegedly, after suspicions of Gómez being involved in a tram project corruption scandal during his time as Mayor of Parla,[7][8] though electoral motives may have helped hasten the move, as Gómez was deemed a bad candidate as Rafael Simancas later recognized.[9] Ángel Gabilondo, former Education Minister in José Luis Rodríguez Zapatero's Cabinet from 2009 to 2011, was selected as PSM-PSOE candidate replacing Gómez on 21 February 2015.[10]

In United Left, Tania Sánchez, elected as party's presidential candidate in a primary election held on 1 December 2014,[11] had left the party on 4 February 2015 alongside a number of supporters, over an internal conflict with the party's regional leadership, involved in the Caja Madrid "black" credit cards scandal.[12] Luis García Montero, a Spanish poet and literary critic, was selected to replace Sánchez' as IU candidate to the Community of Madrid.[13]

The People's Party had not yet proclaimed a candidate as of February 2015, despite incumbent President Ignacio González being widely presumed to stand for a second term in office.[14] On 2 March 2015, Spanish newspaper El Mundo's headlines pointed out that González' had asked National Police officers to withhold information over an ongoing investigation on him about a possible tax fraud in the purchase of a luxury penthouse.[15] González announced that he was the victim of policial 'blackmail' and reiterated his wish to be his party's candidate for the 2015 election.[16] However, rumours arose in the media that the party's leadership had withdrawn their support from González and expected him to eventually give up on his intention to run.[17] Finally, on 6 March 2015, incumbent Government Delegate in Madrid Cristina Cifuentes was chosen as PP candidate for the autonomous community, while former regional President Esperanza Aguirre was named as candidate to the Madrid City Council.[18]

Electoral system

The 129 members of the Assembly of Madrid were elected using the D'Hondt method and a closed list proportional representation, with a threshold of 5 per 100 of valid votes—which included blank ballots—being applied regionally. Parties not reaching the threshold were not taken into consideration for seat distribution. The Assembly was entitled to one member per each 50,000 inhabitants or fraction greater than 25,000, according to the updated data of the population census.[19][20] Voting was on the basis of universal suffrage, with all nationals over eighteen, registered in the Community of Madrid and in full enjoyment of all political rights entitled to vote. Additionally, Madrilenians abroad were required to apply for voting before being permitted to vote, a system known as "begged" or expat vote (Spanish: Voto rogado).[21]

The electoral law provided that parties, federations, coalitions and groupings of electors were allowed to present lists of candidates. However, groupings of electors were required to secure at least the signature of 0.5 per 100 of the electors entered in electoral register of the Community of Madrid. Electors were barred from signing for more than one list of candidates. Concurrently, parties and federations intending to enter in coalition to take part jointly at an election were required to inform the relevant Electoral Commission within ten days from the election call.[19][22][23]

Elections were fixed for the fourth Sunday of May every four years. The President of the Community of Madrid had the prerogative to dissolve the Assembly and call a snap election, provided that no motion of no confidence was in process, no nationwide election was due and some time requirements were met—namely, that dissolution did not occur either during the first legislative session or within the legislature's last year ahead of its scheduled expiry, nor before one year had elapsed since a previous dissolution—. Additionally, the chamber was to be automatically dissolved and a new election called if an investiture process failed to elect a regional President within a two-month period from the first ballot. Any snap election held as a result of these circumstances would not alter the period to the next ordinary election, with elected deputies merely serving out what remained of their four-year terms.[20][22]

Opinion polls

Individual poll results are listed in the table below in reverse chronological order, showing the most recent first, and using the date the survey's fieldwork was done, as opposed to the date of publication. If that date is unknown, the date of publication is given instead. The highest percentage figure in each polling survey is displayed with its background shaded in the leading party's colour. In the instance of a tie, the figures with the highest percentages are shaded. Seat projections are displayed in bold and in a different font. The lead column on the right shows the percentage-point difference between the two parties with the highest figures. 65 seats were required for an absolute majority in the Assembly of Madrid.

Color key:

  Exit poll

Results

← Summary of the 24 May 2015 Assembly of Madrid election results →
Parties and coalitions Popular vote Seats
Votes % ±pp Won +/−
People's Party (PP) 1,050,256 33.08 –18.65 48 –24
Spanish Socialist Workers' Party (PSOE) 807,385 25.43 –0.84 37 +1
We Can (Podemos) 591,697 18.64 New 27 +27
Citizens–Party of the Citizenry (C's) 385,836 12.15 +11.99 17 +17
United Left of the Community of Madrid–The Greens (IUCM–LV) 132,207 4.16 –5.47 0 –13
Union, Progress and Democracy (UPyD) 64,643 2.04 –4.28 0 –8
Vox (Vox) 37,491 1.18 New 0 ±0
Animalist Party Against Mistreatment of Animals (PACMA) 32,228 1.02 +0.49 0 ±0
Blank ballots 34,856 1.10 –1.29
Total 3,174,714 100.00 129 ±0
Valid votes 3,174,714 99.03 +0.71
Invalid votes 31,217 0.97 –0.71
Votes cast / turnout 3,205,931 65.69 –0.17
Abstentions 1,674,564 34.31 +0.17
Registered voters 4,880,495
Source(s): Assembly of Madrid, historiaelectoral.com
Popular vote
PP
  
 33.08%
PSOE
  
 25.43%
Podemos
  
 18.64%
C's
  
 12.15%
IUCM–LV
  
 4.16%
UPyD
  
 2.04%
Vox
  
 1.18%
PACMA
  
 1.02%
Others
  
 1.20%
Blank ballots
  
 1.10%
Seats
PP
  
 37.21%
PSOE
  
 28.68%
Podemos
  
 20.93%
C's
  
 13.18%

Aftermath

Investiture

Investiture processes to elect the President of the Community of Madrid required for an absolute majority—more than half the votes cast—to be obtained in the first ballot. If unsuccessful, a new ballot would be held 48 hours later requiring only of a simple majority—more affirmative than negative votes—to succeed. If such majorities were not achieved, successive candidate proposals would be processed under the same procedure. In the event of the investiture process failing to elect a regional President within a two-month period from the first ballot, the Assembly would be automatically dissolved and a snap election called.[20]

Investiture of
Cristina Cifuentes (PP)		 Yes No Abstentions
24 June 2015 (1st ballot)
(65/129 required)		 65 • PP (48)
• C's (17)		 64 • PSOE (37)
• Podemos (27)		 0
Source: historiaelectoral.com

Vote of no confidence

Vote of no confidence of
Lorena Ruiz-Huerta (Podemos)		 Yes No Abstentions
8 June 2017
(65/129 required)		 27 • Podemos (27) 65 • PP (48)
• C's (17)		 37 • PSOE (37)
Source: historiaelectoral.com

Opinion poll sources

  1. ↑ "El PP habría ganado las elecciones autonómicas en Madrid pero insuficiente para gobernar". Telemadrid (in Spanish). 24 May 2015.
  2. ↑ "Encuestas y resultados - elecciones autonómicas y municipales del 24 de mayo de 2015". GAD3 (in Spanish). 28 May 2015.
  3. ↑ "Rajoy cree un éxito ser el más votado aunque pierda plazas simbólicas". ABC (in Spanish). 17 May 2015.
  4. ↑ "Encuesta mayo 2015" (PDF). La Razón (in Spanish). 17 May 2015.
  5. ↑ "PP más Ciudadanos, el Gobierno para Madrid". El Mundo (in Spanish). 18 May 2015.
  6. ↑ "Ángel Gabilondo pisa los talones a Cristina Cifuentes". Encuestamos (in Spanish). 18 May 2015.
  7. ↑ "El PP conserva Madrid con Podemos y Ciudadanos acechando al PSOE". Telecinco (in Spanish). 14 May 2015.
  8. ↑ "El PP ganaría en la Comunidad pero necesitaría a Ciudadanos para gobernar". Cadena SER (in Spanish). 11 May 2015.
  9. ↑ "El ObSERvatorio de la Cadena SER. Estudio preelectoral de la Comunidad de Madrid (11/5/2015)" (PDF). MyWord (in Spanish). 11 May 2015.
  10. ↑ "El Partido Popular perdería la mayoría absoluta en el Ayuntamiento y en la Comunidad de Madrid". laSexta (in Spanish). 2 May 2015.
  11. ↑ "El PP gana en Madrid pero tendrá que pactar con Ciudadanos". El País (in Spanish). 1 May 2015.
  12. ↑ "PP y Ciudadanos suman en Madrid igual número de escaños que obtuvo el Partido Popular en 2011". Público (in Spanish). 10 May 2015.
  13. ↑ "COMUNIDAD DE MADRID, Abril 2015. Sondeo Cámara de Comercio". Electograph (in Spanish). 23 April 2015.
  14. ↑ "El PP ganaría en el Ayuntamiento y la Comunidad de Madrid sin mayoría absoluta". ABC (in Spanish). 24 April 2015.
  15. ↑ "El PP gana en Madrid, pero necesitará a Ciudadanos para poder gobernar". ABC (in Spanish). 26 April 2015.
  16. ↑ "Preelectoral elecciones autonómicas y municipales 2015. Comunidad de Madrid (Estudio nº 3.065. Marzo-Abril 2015)" (PDF). CIS (in Spanish). 7 May 2015.
  17. ↑ "El PP pierde la mayoría absoluta en Madrid". Telecinco (in Spanish). 24 April 2015.
  18. ↑ "Ciudadanos, llave en Madrid". El Mundo (in Spanish). 5 April 2015.
  19. ↑ "El PP seguirá siendo el más votado en las CC AA pese a la caída en apoyos". La Razón (in Spanish). 20 April 2015.
  20. ↑ "Comunidad de Madrid: Cifuentes: entre el partido de Rivera y una alianza puntual con Gabilondo". La Razón (in Spanish). 20 April 2015.
  21. ↑ "Encuesta autonómicas NC Report abril 2015" (PDF). La Razón (in Spanish). 20 April 2015.
  22. ↑ "Madrid, obligada a una gran coalición". El País (in Spanish). 21 February 2015.
  23. ↑ "González pincha en las encuestas internas del PP". La Gaceta (in Spanish). 17 February 2015.
  24. ↑ "COMUNIDAD DE MADRID, Febrero 2015. Sondeo interno PP". Electograph (in Spanish). 18 February 2015.
  25. ↑ "Uno de cada tres votantes del PSM rechaza la destitución de Tomás Gómez". laSexta (in Spanish). 15 February 2015.
  26. ↑ "La destitución de Gómez sitúa al PSOE en primer lugar y desplaza a Podemos". El País (in Spanish). 12 February 2015.
  27. 1 2 3 4 "Clima político y social en la Comunidad de Madrid". El País (in Spanish). 21 February 2015.
  28. ↑ "Así se hizo el sondeo de urgencia sobre la destitución de Tomás Gómez". Metroscopia (in Spanish). 12 February 2015.
  29. ↑ "COMUNIDAD DE MADRID, Febrero 2015. Sondeos internos PP". Electograph (in Spanish). 5 February 2015.
  30. ↑ "El reparto del poder territorial en España en 2015" (PDF). desarrollando-ideas.com (in Spanish). 31 October 2014.
  31. ↑ "El PP también necesitará apoyos para gobernar en la Comunidad de Madrid". ABC (in Spanish). 14 September 2014.
  32. ↑ "Proyección del resultado de las europeas en los parlamentos autonómicos". El País (in Spanish). 31 May 2014.
  33. ↑ "El PP se desangra en Madrid". El País (in Spanish). 2014-05-01.
  34. ↑ "Clima político en Madrid". Metroscopia (in Spanish). 5 May 2014.
  35. ↑ "El PP perdería la mayoría absoluta en Madrid, según el barómetro de laSexta". laSexta (in Spanish). 2 May 2014.
  36. ↑ "El voto líquido". La Vanguardia (in Spanish). 30 March 2014.
  37. ↑ "El PP ganaría de nuevo en 9 de 13 autonomías". La Razón (in Spanish). 18 November 2013. Archived from the original on 3 March 2016.
  38. ↑ "Encuesta autonómicas NC Report noviembre 2013" (PDF). La Razón (in Spanish). 18 November 2013.
  39. ↑ "El PP mantiene el poder autonómico". La Razón (in Spanish). 13 May 2013.
  40. ↑ "Perderían la mayoría absoluta en Madrid, Cantabria y Valencia". La Razón (in Spanish). 13 May 2013.
  41. ↑ "El PP ganaría en la mayoría de las autonomías (La Razón)". Electómetro (in Spanish). 13 May 2013. Archived from the original on 4 March 2016.
  42. ↑ "El PP pierde la mayoría absoluta en el gran feudo de Madrid". El País (in Spanish). 1 May 2013.
  43. ↑ "Clima político y social en la Comunidad de Madrid". Metroscopia (in Spanish). 3 May 2013.

References

  1. ↑ "Esperanza Aguirre resigns" (in Spanish). El País. 2012-09-17.
  2. ↑ "PP wins in Madrid but loses 19 points, while the PSOE collapses" (in Spanish). Madrid Press. 2014-05-26.
  3. ↑ "PSOE fears that the CIS places it in 3rd place in vote estimation" (in Spanish). ABC. 2015-02-04.
  4. ↑ "PSM proclaims Tomás Gómez as candidate to the Presidency of the Community of Madrid" (in Spanish). RTVE. 2014-10-03.
  5. ↑ "Pedro Sánchez dismisses Tomás Gómez and creates an interim committee in the PSM" (in Spanish). El País. 2015-02-11.
  6. ↑ "Gabilondo and Simancas, among the possible successors of Tomás Gómez" (in Spanish). Antena 3. 2015-02-11.
  7. ↑ "Sánchez gives a blow of authority and expels Tomás Gómez as leader in Madrid" (in Spanish). El Mundo. 2015-02-11.
  8. ↑ "Gómez clings on to his office and threatens to go to court" (in Spanish). El Mundo. 2015-02-11.
  9. ↑ "Simancas tell Varcarce that the election will be democratic "but faster" because of the "exceptional" moment" (in Spanish). Europa Press. 2015-02-16.
  10. ↑ "PSOE names Ángel Gabilondo candidate to the Community of Madrid" (in Spanish). El País. 2015-02-21.
  11. ↑ "Tania Sánchez, elected as candidate to the Presidency of the Community of Madrid" (in Spanish). Antena 3. 2014-12-01.
  12. ↑ "Tania Sanchez leaves IU to promote a party of "popular unity"" (in Spanish). El País. 2015-02-05.
  13. ↑ "Conditioned 'yes' from Luis García Montero" (in Spanish). Cadena SER. 2015-02-27.
  14. ↑ "PP, PSOE and IU, without candidates in the Community of Madrid" (in Spanish). El Correo. 2015-02-11.
  15. ↑ "Ignacio González sought help from police to hide the penthouse's case" (in Spanish). El Mundo. 2015-03-02.
  16. ↑ "Ignacio González denounces policial blackmail and says he doesn't renounce to be candidate" (in Spanish). El Diario. 2015-03-02.
  17. ↑ "PP expects Ignacio González expected to step back in his candidacy" (in Spanish). El Mundo. 2015-03-03.
  18. ↑ "Rajoy ignores González and chooses Cifuentes as candidate for Madrid" (in Spanish). El País. 2015-03-06.
  19. 1 2 Community of Madrid Electoral Law of 1986, Law No. 11 of November 16, 1986 Official Gazette of the Community of Madrid (in Spanish). Retrieved on 22 February 2017.
  20. 1 2 3 Statute of Autonomy of the Community of Madrid of 1983, Organic Law No. 3 of February 25, 1983 Official State Gazette (in Spanish). Retrieved on 22 February 2017.
  21. ↑ Reig Pellicer, Naiara (16 December 2015). "Spanish elections: Begging for the right to vote". cafebabel.co.uk. Retrieved 17 July 2017.
  22. 1 2 General Electoral System Organic Law of 1985, Organic Law No. 5 of June 19, 1985 Official State Gazette (in Spanish). Retrieved on 28 December 2016.
  23. ↑ "Representation of the people Institutional Act". juntaelectoralcentral.es. Central Electoral Commission. Retrieved 16 June 2017.
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