Japanese general election, 2012

Japanese general election, 2012

16 December 2012
All 480 seats to the House of Representatives of Japan 241 seats needed for a majority
Turnout	59.32%
First party Second party Third party   Leader Shinzō Abe Yoshihiko Noda Shintaro Ishihara Party Liberal Democratic Democratic Restoration Leader since 26 September 2012 29 August 2011 17 November 2012 Leader's seat Yamaguchi-4th Chiba-4th Tokyo PR Last election 119 seats 38.68% (district) 26.73% (block) 308 seats 47.43% (district) 42.41% (block) new party Seats before 118 230 11 Seats won 294 57 54 Seat change 176 173 43 Popular vote 25,643,309 (district) 16,624,457 (block) 13,598,773 (district) 9,268,653 (block) 6,942,353 (district) 12,262,228 (block) Percentage 43.02% (district) 27.62% (block) 22.81% (district) 15.49% (block) 11.64% (district) 20.38% (block)   Fourth party Fifth party Sixth party   Leader Natsuo Yamaguchi Yoshimi Watanabe Yukiko Kada Party New Kōmeitō Your Tomorrow Leader since 8 September 2009 8 August 2009 28 November 2012 Leader's seat not contesting (Coun.) Tochigi-3rd not contesting (Governor of Shiga) Last election 21 seats 1.11% (district) 11.45% (block) 5 seats 0.87% (district) 4.27% (block) new party Seats before 21 8 61 Seats won 31 18 9 Seat change 10 10 52 Popular vote 885,881 (district) 7,116,474 (block) 2,807,244 (district) 5,245,586 (block) 2,992,365 (district) 3,423,915 (block) Percentage 1.49% (district) 11.83% (block) 4.71% (district) 8.72% (block) 5.02% (district) 5.69% (block)   Seventh party Eighth party Ninth party   Leader Kazuo Shii Mizuho Fukushima Muneo Suzuki Party Communist Social Democratic New Party Daichi Leader since 24 November 2000 15 November 2003 28 December 2011 Leader's seat Minami-Kantō PR not contesting (Coun.) - Last election 9 seats 4.22% (district) 7.03% (block) 7 seats 1.95% (district) 4.27% (block) 1 seats - (district) 0.62% (block) Seats before 9 5 3 Seats won 8 2 1 Seat change 1 3 2 Popular vote 4,700,289 (district) 3,689,159 (block) 451,762 (district) 1,420,790 (block) 315,604 (district) 346,848 (block) Percentage 7.88% (district) 6.13% (block) 0.76% (district) 2.36% (block) 0.53% (district) 0.58% (block)
districts and PR districts won by respective parties
Prime Minister before election Yoshihiko Noda Democratic Elected Prime Minister Shinzo Abe Liberal Democratic

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A general election was held in Japan on 16 December 2012. Voters gave the Liberal Democratic Party a landslide victory, ejecting the Democratic Party of Japan from power after three years. It was the fourth worst defeat suffered by a ruling party in Japanese history.

Voting took place in all representatives' constituencies of Japan including proportional blocks, in order to appoint Members of Diet to seats in the House of Representatives, the lower house of the National Diet of Japan. This was the 46th general election of members of the House of Representatives (第46回衆議院議員総選挙, dai-yonjūrokkai Shūgiin giin sōsenkyo) in Japan since 1869.

In July 2012 it was reported that the deputy prime minister Katsuya Okada had approached the Liberal Democratic Party to sound them out about dissolving the house of representatives and holding the election in January 2013.^[1] An agreement was reached in August to dissolve the Diet and hold early elections "shortly" following the passage of a bill to raise the national consumption tax.^[2] It was reported that as the result of introducing the consumption tax to repay the Japan public debt,^{[3][4][5][6][7]} the DPJ lost around 75% of its pre-election seats.^[8][9]

Background

The LDP had governed Japan for all but three years since 1955. However, in the 2009 election, the LDP suffered the worst defeat of a sitting government in modern Japanese history. Due to the characteristics of the Japanese election system, DPJ candidates won 308 seats in the House of Representatives (64.2% of seats), enabling Yukio Hatoyama to become prime minister. Since then, Japan has had two other prime ministers, Naoto Kan and Yoshihiko Noda. On 16 November, Noda dissolved parliament, thus allowing for a new election in a month's time. He cited the lack of funds to carry on the functions of government and the need for an emergency budget.

Dissatisfaction with the DPJ-led government and the former LDP-led government led to the formation of several grassroots movements, collectively known as the "third pole," to counter the two major parties.^[10] The former Governor of Tokyo Shintarō Ishihara announced the renamed and re-formed of the Sunrise Party on 14 November 2012 Ishihara co-leading with Takeo Hiranuma.^[11] On 17 November 2012 Mayor of Osaka Tōru Hashimoto and former Tokyo Governor Shintarō Ishihara announced the merger of the Japan Restoration Party and the Sunrise Party as a third force to contend the 16 December 2012 general election.^[12] It is Japan's first national political party that is based outside of Tokyo.^[13]

On 23 November, Mayor of Nagoya Takashi Kawamura, former state minister Shizuka Kamei and former farm minister Masahiko Yamada joined forces together to launch Tax Cuts Japan – Oppose TPP – Zero Nuclear Party as another "third pole" national political party.^[14] On 28 November, the Governor of Shiga Yukiko Kada in Ōtsu announced the establishment of an anti-nuclear and equal gender party known as the Tomorrow Party of Japan becoming the second national party based outside of Tokyo. Concurrent the DPJ splitter group, People's Life First president Ichirō Ozawa dissolved the party and merged into the Tomorrow Party. Tax Cuts Japan – Oppose TPP – Zero Nuclear Party and Japan Future Party are negotiating to merge parties to further counter the major parties and the pro-nuclear parties.^[15] On 27 November Tax Cuts Japan – Oppose TPP – Zero Nuclear Party officially announced they would merge with Tomorrow, with party co-leader Mashahiko Yamada saying "We would also like to raise our hands in joining because our ways of thinking are the same." ^[16]

Polling

Graph of poll results since 2009
Democratic   Liberal Democratic   New Komeito   Communist   Social Democratic   Your Party   Others incl. NPN, PNP, NRP and SP   No Party Source: NHK Parties' approval ratings from August to December 2009 Date DPJ LDP NKP YP JCP SDP Other No Party Undecided 19–20 August (after GE) 42.0% 18.9% 2.2% 0.2% 1.2% 2.7% 2.0% 26.0% 4.3% 10–12 October 39.7% 16.7% 3.8% 0.2% 0.8% 3.0% 0.3% 29.1% 5.9% 6–8 November 37.7% 14.1% 3.8% 0.5% 1.6% 1.6% 0.3% 33.8% 6.3% 11–13 December 35.6% 17.1% 1.6% 0.2% 2.3% 1.2% 0.3% 34.6% 5.8% Parties' approval ratings from 2010 Date DPJ LDP NKP YP JCP SDP Other No Party Undecided 9–11 January 34.9% 18.3% 3.3% 1.2% 1.9% 0.8% 0.6% 33.8% 5.2% 5–7 February 30.0% 18.2% 2.3% 1.2% 3.0% 1.1% 0.3% 37.6% 6.2% 5–7 March 25.8% 17.1% 2.7% 3.5% 2.1% 1.0% 0.5% 41.7% 5.6% 9–11 April 22.2% 16.1% 3.6% 2.9% 2.5% 1.1% 1.0% 44.4% 6.2% 5–7 May 20.8% 17.9% 3.0% 3.1% 2.2% 0.9% 1.8% 44.4% 7.0% 11–13 May (Before Kan) 30.7% 17.0% 3.8% 1.9% 2.8% 1.8% 1.2% 35.2% 5.7% 11–13 June 34.3% 15.8% 2.9% 2.7% 1.6% 1.5% 0.9% 32.7% 7.6% 17–19 July 29.8% 20.1% 3.2% 8.6% 2.7% 1.4% 0.7% 27.4% 6.1% 6–8 August 28.9% 19.5% 3.1% 7.4% 2.3% 0.7% 0.4% 30.4% 7.3% 18–20 September 36.2% 18.8% 3.2% 4.2% 1.5% 1.0% 0.5% 29.5% 5.2% 9–11 October 29.6% 21.5% 2.6% 4.2% 1.8% 1.0% 0.4% 33.6% 5.3% 5–7 November 24.1% 22.1% 3.3% 4.6% 2.9% 0.2% 0.7% 35.9% 6.2% 10–12 December 21.3% 22.6% 3.1% 3.2% 2.6% 1.2% 0.6% 39.0% 6.4% Parties' approval ratings from 2011 Date DPJ LDP NKP JCP SDP YP Other No Party Undecided 8–10 January 21.9% 22.0% 2.9% 3.7% 1.8% 1.4% 0.3% 40.7% 5.3% 11–13 February 20.2% 21.7% 3.9% 2.9% 2.3% 1.0% 0.6% 42.1% 5.5% 15–17 April 19.2% 23.3% 2.8% 2.7% 2.2% 0.8% 0.4% 41.9% 6.7% 13–15 May 17.6% 22.6% 3.7% 1.8% 2.6% 0.7% 0.8% 45.2% 5.0% 10–12 June 20.4% 21.1% 4.5% 2.3% 1.4% 0.8% 0.3% 43.1% 6.0% 8–10 July 13.6% 23.4% 3.4% 2.8% 2.2% 1.0% 0.2% 46.2% 7.2% 5–7 August 16.4% 25.0% 3.0% 2.7% 2.7% 0.8% 0.4% 42.8% 6.3% 9–11 September 24.9% 19.1% 2.9% 1.7% 1.4% 1.0% 0.1% 44.1% 4.7% 8–10 October 22.6% 18.4% 4.1% 2.2% 1.9% 1.5% 0.3% 42.6% 6.4% 11–13 November 20.9% 20.4% 3.3% 2.9% 1.6% 1.1% 0.1% 42.9% 6.7% 9–11 December 16.9% 18.3% 3.4% 4.4% 1.8% 0.7% 0.8% 45.5% 8.3% Parties' approval ratings from 2012 Date DPJ LDP NKP JCP SDP YP Other No Party Undecided 7–9 January 18.5% 18.3% 3.7% 2.7% 2.0% 0.7% 1.0% 46.1% 7.2% 10–12 February 17.6% 16.9% 3.1% 2.9% 1.6% 0.6% 0.8% 49.4% 7.2% 9–11 March 18.1% 17.2% 2.9% 2.9% 2.6% 1.1% 1.1% 48.7% 5.4% 6–8 April 16.7% 18.8% 2.8% 1.2% 2.2% 0.8% 1.5% 49.2% 6.8% 11–13 May 18.4% 19.9% 3.8% 1.1% 0.5% 2.2% 1.5% 47.1% 5.6% 8–10 June 16.9% 20.9% 2.4% 1.7% 0.3% 2.7% 1.3% 47.3% 6.6% 6–8 July 15.2% 19.8% 2.9% 1.7% 0.3% 1.1% 0.7% 52.0% 6.3% 10–12 August 14.3% 23.9% 3.0% 2.4% 0.1% 2.1% 0.9% 45.9% 6.6% 7–9 September 16.7% 20.1% 4.5% 1.9% 0.6% 1.3% 2.3% 45.2% 6.9% 6–8 October 13.8% 26.2% 2.8% 1.6% 0.4% 1.2% 3.4% 45.2% 5.4% 9–11 November 12.7% 25.0% 3.0% 2.0% 0.5% 1.2% 3.0% 45.8% 7.4% 7–9 December 16.1% 26.6% 4.1% 2.7% 0.7% 2.1% 6.9% 33.5% 7.4%
Graph of the current Cabinet Approval/Disapproval Ratings

Party polling for the 180 proportional seats

PM polling

Poll source	Date(s) administered
		Noda DPJ	Abe LDP	Ishihara JRP
Kyodo News	3–4 November 2012	29.3%	40%	—
Asahi Shimbun	15–16 November 2012	31%	33%	—
Yomiuri Shimbun	16–17 November 2012	31%	37%	—
Kyodo News	17–18 November 2012	32.1%	35%	—
Yomiuri Shimbun	23–25 November 2012	19%	29%	22%
Kyodo News	24–25 November 2012	30%	33.9%	—
Yomiuri Shimbun	30 Nov.-2 Dec 2012	21%	28%	—
NHK	7–9 December 2012	19%	28%	—
Kyodo News	8–9 December 2012	31%	39%	—
Kyodo News	12–13 December 2012	29%	34%	—

Pre-election composition

As of official announcement (kōji [=deadline for candidate registration, legal campaign start, start of early voting on following day]) on December 4^[17] – note that the government had lost its majority, already slim at the time of dissolution of the House of Representatives (November 16), due to further defections during the positioning of candidates for the election.

Results

Seating after the election.

  LDP (294)

  DPJ/Club of Independents (57)

  Restoration (54)

  Kōmeitō (31)

  YP (18)

  Tomorrow (9)

  JCP (8)

  Independents (5)

  SDP/Shimin Rengō (2)

  PNP (1)

  NPD (1)

 Summary of the 16 December 2012 Japanese House of Representatives election results^[18]

Alliances and parties		Local constituency vote			PR block vote			Total seats		+/−
		Votes[19]	%	Seats	Votes	%	Seats	Total	%	(pre- election)	(last election)
	Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) Jimintō	25,643,309	43.01	237	16,624,457	27.79	57	294	61.25	176	175
	New Komeito Party (NKP) Kōmeitō	885,881	1.49	9	7,116,474	11.90	22	31	6.46	10	10
	Prospective LDP–NKP Coalition	26,529,190	44.49	246	23,740,931	39.69	79	325	67.71	186	185
	Democratic Party (DPJ) Minshutō	13,598,773	22.81	27	9,268,653	15.49	30	57	11.88	173	251
	Restoration Party (JRP) Ishin no Kai	6,942,353	11.64	14	12,262,228	20.50	40	54	11.25	43	—
	Your Party (YP) Minna no Tō	2,807,244	4.71	4	5,245,586	8.77	14	18	3.75	10	10
	Tomorrow Party (TPJ) Mirai no Tō	2,992,365	5.02	2	3,423,915	5.72	7	9	1.88	52	—
	Communist Party (JCP) Kyōsantō	4,700,289	7.88	0	3,689,159	6.17	8	8	1.67	1	1
	Social Democratic Party (SDP) Shakai Minshutō	451,762	0.76	1	1,420,790	2.38	1	2	0.42	3	5
	People's New Party (PNP) Kokumin Shintō	117,185	0.20	1	70,847	0.12	0	1	0.21	2	2
	New Party Daichi (NPD) Shintō Daichi	315,604	0.53	0	346,848	0.58	1	1	0.21	2	0
	Happiness Realization Party (HRP) Kōfuku Jitsugentō	102,634	0.17	0	216,150	0.36	0	0	0.00	0	0
	Others	62,697	0.11	0	134,781	0.23	0	0	0.00	0	0
	Total opposition parties	32,090,906	53.82	49	36,078,957	60.31	101	150	31.25	180	249
	Independents	1,006,468	1.69	5	–			5	1.04	4	1
Totals		59,626,564	100.00%	300	59,819,888	100.00%	180	480	100.00	1*	0
Turnout		59.32%			59.31%			*(vacant seats)

Post-election

Overview of results

As the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) won 294 seats and their allies the New Komeito Party won 31 seats, a coalition of the two parties would be able to form a two-thirds majority in the House of Representatives, enabling them to overrule the House of Councillors.^[20][21] The significant swing back towards conservative politics was attributed to economic anxieties, including fear of falling behind China.^[20] Despite this landslide victory, Shinzo Abe acknowledged that his party won mainly because of voter antipathy towards the Democratic Party and not due to a resurgence in popularity for the LDP.^[22][23]

On the other hand, the election was an unmitigated disaster for the Democratic Party of Japan, which lost three-quarters^[24] of its 230 seats in the lower house to finish with just 57. In addition, seven members of the Cabinet lost their seats, the most ever in an election. Naoto Kan, who preceded Noda as prime minister, lost his constituency as well.^[25] Overall, this marked the worst performance by a ruling party in the post-World War II era. As a result, Yoshihiko Noda resigned from his post as party president.^[24]

The Tomorrow Party of Japan, which formed shortly before the election, consisted mostly of incumbents defecting from the Democratic Party. Most of these incumbents were unseated, causing the party to lose 86% of its strength only weeks after forming. Both the Japan Restoration Party and Your Party emerged as viable players in the Diet, while the traditional left parties Social Democratic Party and Japanese Communist Party continued to decline in strength and relevance.

The voter turnout of 59.3% was the lowest since the Second World War.^[24]

Reactions and analysis

The Liberal Democratic Party had campaigned on a tough stance on the Senkaku Islands dispute, leading to speculation as to how the new government would deal with the issue.^[21] Abe made his party's position clear immediately following the election, stating that their "objective is to stop the challenge" from China with regards to ownership of the islands.^[26] The re-election of the liberal conservative LDP has raised concern in foreign media that Japan's relations with its neighbours — China and South Korea — will become strained, given the past visits to the Yasukuni Shrine by LDP prime ministers, the party's perceived de-emphasization of Japan's war crimes committed during the Second World War and their intention to amend the country's pacifist constitution to give more power to the Self-Defense Forces.^[27][28][29] Abe is also in favour of retaining nuclear energy in the country.^[20]

In response to the election, the Nikkei 225 Index increased by 1%, while the yen fell to ¥84.48 against the US dollar, the lowest rate in 20 months.^[30] Furthermore, the yield on 20-year Japanese government bonds (JCBs) rose to 1.710% a day after the election. This marked its highest level in nearly eight months.^[31]

United States President Barack Obama spoke to Abe by telephone to congratulate him on the results of the general election, and discussed ongoing efforts to enhance bilateral security cooperation as well as deepening economic ties.^[32]

Voiding of election

On March 25, 2013 the Hiroshima High Court ruled the election unconstitutional and the results void due to "the disparity in the value of one vote", which was up to 2.43 time the maximum constitutionally allowed disparity in some districts.^[33][34] The decision is expected to be appealed to the Supreme Court,^[35] and, if it's upheld, new elections must be held. The Supreme Court had previously ruled that the electoral system was unconstitutional without invalidating election results.^[35] Foreign Minister Fumio Kishida said that government would give electoral reform new thought and examine the situation carefully in order to respond in the appropriate manner.^[34]

See also

• List of Districts of the House of Representatives of Japan

References

External links

• Election results (NHK World)
• Detailed results (Yomiuri Shimbun) (Japanese)