Iowa Democratic caucuses, 2016

Iowa Democratic caucuses, 2016
Iowa
February 1, 2016 (2016-02-01)

 
Candidate Hillary Clinton Bernie Sanders
Home state New York Vermont
Delegate count 23 21
Percentage 49.84% 49.59%

Iowa results by county
  Hillary Clinton
  Bernie Sanders
  Tie

The 2016 Iowa Democratic caucuses took place on February 1 in the U.S. state of Iowa, traditionally marking the Democratic Party's first nominating contest in their series of presidential primaries ahead of the 2016 presidential election.

The Republican Party held its own Iowa caucuses on the same day.

Despite a late challenge, Hillary Clinton was able to defeat Bernie Sanders in the first-in-the-nation Iowa Caucus by the closest margin in the history of the contest: 49.8% to 49.6% (Clinton collected 700.47 state delegate equivalents to Sanders' 696.92, a difference of one quarter of a percentage point).[1] The victory, which was projected to award her 23 pledged national convention delegates (two more than Sanders), made Clinton the first woman to win the Caucus and marked a clear difference from 2008, where she finished in third place behind Obama and John Edwards.[2][3][4][5] Martin O'Malley suspended his campaign after a disappointing third-place finish with only 0.5% of the state delegate equivalents awarded, leaving Clinton and Sanders the only two major candidates in the race.[6] 171,517 people participated in the 2016 Iowa Democratic caucuses.[7]

Hillary Clinton launched her campaign in Iowa, April 2015
Bernie Sanders campaigns in Iowa in January 2016
Sanders supporters in Iowa, January 31, 2016

Procedure

There was no ballot; instead, a unique form of debate and groupings chose delegates to county conventions supporting Hillary Clinton, Martin O'Malley, and Bernie Sanders. The Iowa Democratic Party did not release vote counts or the numbers of these delegates. Instead, they released the estimated amount of state delegates supporting each candidate.[8] The county conventions selected delegates to district and state conventions, which in turn selected the delegates to the Democratic National Convention. The delegates at the county, district and state conventions were not pledged and were allowed to change their preference, meaning that the final result of the state delegates could have been different from what was estimated at the Iowa precinct caucuses.

Delegate Allocation

The delegate allocation to the Democratic National Convention was as follows: 29 districts delegates were split up between the 4 congressional districts. The First and Second Congressional Districts received 8 district delegates, the Third Congressional District received 7 and the Fourth Congressional District received 6. These district delegates were elected at the District conventions based on the result in their Congressional District, not the statewide vote.

At the State Convention, the 15 statewide pledged delegates were elected based on the statewide results. 9 of these delegates were At-Large and 6 were Party Leaders and Elected Officials (PLEO) who were pledged in the same way the At-Large delegates were.[9]

The Iowa delegation also included 8 superdelegates who were not pledged based on the result of the caucus process, which included 1 U.S. Representative and 7 Democratic National Committee members.

Debates and forums

November 2015 debate in Des Moines

On November 14, 2015, the Democratic Party held a second presidential debate at the Sheslow Auditorium at Drake University in Des Moines, Iowa. Hosted by CBS News Political Director John Dickerson, it aired on CBS News and was also broadcast by KCCI and The Des Moines Register. With the remaining candidates Hillary Clinton, Bernie Sanders, and Martin O'Malley participating, it was the first debate to be broadcast over nationwide network television, the previous debate having gone over cable.[10]

As the day before the debate, November 13, was the day of the November 2015 Paris attacks, CBS announced that the debate would focus on foreign policy and terrorism.[11] In addition, a moment of silence was held at the beginning of the debate in memory of the victims.

January 2016 forum in Des Moines

On January 11, 2016 the "Black and Brown" forum was held at Drake University in Des Moines, Iowa. Focusing on minority issues, it aired on Fusion.[12]

Opinion polling

Poll source Date 1st 2nd Other
Caucus results February 1, 2016 Hillary Clinton
49.9%		 Bernie Sanders
49.6%		 Martin O'Malley 0.6%
Emerson College[13]
Margin of error: ± 5.6%
Sample size: 300		 January 29–31, 2016 Hillary Clinton
51%		 Bernie Sanders
43%		 Martin O'Malley 4%
Undecided 2%
Quinnipiac University[14]
Margin of error: ± 3.2%
Sample size: 919		 January 25–31, 2016 Bernie Sanders
49%		 Hillary Clinton
46%		 Martin O'Malley 3%
Undecided 2%
Des Moines Register– Bloomberg–Selzer[15]
Margin of error: ± 4%
Sample size: 602		 January 26–29, 2016 Hillary Clinton
45%		 Bernie Sanders
42%		 Martin O'Malley 3%
Undecided or Not Committed 9%
Public Policy Polling[16]

Margin of error ± 3.4%
Sample size: 851

 January 26–27, 2016 Hillary Clinton
48%		 Bernie Sanders
40%		 Martin O'Malley 7%
No preference 5%
Gravis Marketing[17]

Margin of error ± 3%
Sample size: 810

 January 26–27, 2016 Hillary Clinton
53%		 Bernie Sanders
42%		 Martin O'Malley 5%
No preference 0%
Monmouth University[18]

Margin of error ± 4.4%
Sample size: 504

 January 23–26, 2016 Hillary Clinton
47%		 Bernie Sanders
42%		 Martin O'Malley 6%
Undecided 5%
American Research Group[19]

Margin of error ± 5.0%
Sample size: 400

 January 21–24, 2016 Bernie Sanders
48%		 Hillary Clinton
45%		 Martin O'Malley 3%
No preference 4%
Quinnipiac University[20]

Margin of error: ± 4%
Sample size: 606

 January 18–24, 2016 Bernie Sanders
49%		 Hillary Clinton
45%		 Martin O'Malley 4%
Undecided 2%
ISU/WHO-HD[21]

Margin of error: ±
Sample size: 356

 January 5–22, 2016 Hillary Clinton
47%		 Bernie Sanders
45%		 Martin O'Malley <1%
Undecided 7%
Fox News[22]

Margin of error ± 4.5%
Sample size: 432

 January 18–21, 2016 Hillary Clinton
48%		 Bernie Sanders
42%		 Martin O'Malley 3%
No preference 7%
YouGov/CBS News[23]

Margin of error ± 8.9%
Sample size: 906

 January 17–21, 2016 Bernie Sanders
47%		 Hillary Clinton
46%		 Martin O'Malley 5%
No preference 2%
Emerson College Polling Society[24]

Margin of error: ± 5.9%
Sample size: 271

 January 18–20, 2016 Hillary Clinton
52%		 Bernie Sanders
43%		 Martin O'Malley 3%
Undecided 2%
CNN/ORC[25]

Margin of error: ± 6%
Sample size: 280

 January 15–20, 2016 Bernie Sanders
51%		 Hillary Clinton
43%		 Martin O'Malley 4%
Undecided 2%
Monmouth College/KBUR[26]

Margin of error: ± 4.1%
Sample size: 500

 January 18–19, 2016 Hillary Clinton
47.7%		 Bernie Sanders
39.3%		 Martin O'Malley 7.4%
Undecided 5%
Loras College[27]

Margin of error: ± 4.4%
Sample size: 580

 January 8–10, 2016 Hillary Clinton
46%		 Bernie Sanders
40%		 Martin O'Malley 8%
Undecided 5%
Public Policy Polling[28]

Margin of error: ± 4.1%
Sample size: 580

 January 8–10, 2016 Hillary Clinton
46%		 Bernie Sanders
40%		 Martin O'Malley 8%
Undecided 5%
Bloomberg/DMR[29]

Margin of error: ± 4.4%
Sample size: 503

 January 7–10, 2016 Hillary Clinton
42%		 Bernie Sanders
40%		 Martin O'Malley 4%
Other/Undecided 14%
American Research Group[30]

Margin of error: ± 4.0%
Sample size: 600

 January 6–10, 2016 Bernie Sanders
47%		 Hillary Clinton
44%		 Martin O'Malley 3%
Undecided 5%
Quinnipiac University[31]

Margin of error: ± 4.4%
Sample size: 492

 January 5–10, 2016 Bernie Sanders
49%		 Hillary Clinton
44%		 Martin O'Malley 4%
Undecided 3%
Mason-Dixon/AARP[32]

Margin of error: ±
Sample size: 503

 January 4–8, 2016 Hillary Clinton
49%		 Bernie Sanders
42%		 Martin O’Malley 5%
Not Reported 4%
NBC News/WSJ/Marist[33]

Margin of error: ± 4.8%
Sample size: 422

 January 2–7, 2016 Hillary Clinton
48%		 Bernie Sanders
45%		 Martin O’Malley 5%
Undecided 3%

Results

 Democratic Party's presidential nominating process in Iowa, 2016
– Summary of results –
Candidate State delegate equivalents Estimated delegates
Count Percentage Pledged Unpledged Total
Hillary Clinton 700.47 49.84% 23 6 29
Bernie Sanders 696.92 49.59% 21 0 21
Martin O'Malley 7.63 0.54% 0 0 0
Uncommitted 0.46 0.03% 0 1 1
Total 1,405.48 100% 44 7 51
Source: The Green Papers, Iowa Democrats
Iowa Democratic county conventions, March 13, 2016
Candidate State delegates Estimated delegates
Count Percentage Pledged Unpledged Total
Hillary Clinton 704 50.07% 23 6 29
Bernie Sanders 700 49.79% 21 0 21
Martin O'Malley 1 0.07% 0 0 0
Uncommitted 1 0.07% 0 1 1
Total 1,406 100% 44 7 51
Source: Iowa Democrats
Iowa Democratic District conventions, April 30, 2016
Candidate State delegates Estimated delegates
Count Percentage Pledged Unpledged Total
Hillary Clinton 697 50.40% 23 6 29
Bernie Sanders 686 49.60% 21 0 21
Uncommitted 1 1
Total 1,383 100% 44 7 51
Source: Iowa Democrats
Iowa State Democratic Convention, June 18, 2016
Candidate State delegates Estimated delegates
Count Percentage Pledged Unpledged Total
Hillary Clinton 714 55.56% 23 6 29
Bernie Sanders 571 44.44% 21 0 21
Uncommitted 1 1
Total 1,285 100% 44 7 51
Source: Iowa Democrats

Following a poor result in the caucuses, Martin O'Malley announced he was suspending his campaign.[65]

Controversy

Results of the Iowa Democratic caucus, 2016
  Clinton—70-80%
  Clinton—60-70%
  Clinton—50-60%
  Clinton—<50%
  Tie between Clinton and Sanders
  Sanders—<50%
  Sanders—50-60%
  Sanders—60-70%
  Sanders—70-80%

"[O]rganizational issues around the caucus", including difficulty identifying volunteers to "oversee individual precinct caucuses," contributed to a "disorganized process that lent itself to chaos and conspiracy theories" according to The Guardian.[66]

Both the Sanders and Clinton campaigns have flagged a very small number of concerns for us, and we are looking at them all on a case-by-case basis.
— Sam Lau, Iowa Democratic Party

After initially refusing to review caucus results, Iowa Democratic Party officials did end up "making updates where discrepancies have been found."[67] With "doubts about which Democratic candidate actually won the Iowa caucuses," there have been "fresh calls for the party to mirror the simple, secret-ballot method" the Republicans use. Stated Norm Sterzenbach, former Iowa Democratic Party executive director who oversaw five election cycles: “It’s worth discussing again, but it’s not as simple as it sounds.”[68] It is said that Clinton won by the thinnest margin in the history of Iowa caucuses.

Instances

Iowa Democrats reported "discrepancies in caucus results" and confusion over the math of the delegate-awarding system. In Grinnell Ward 1, 19 delegates were awarded to Sanders and seven to Clinton on caucus night. The Iowa Democratic party later shifted one delegate from Sanders to Clinton, but did not notify the precinct secretary, who "only discovered that this happened the next day, when checking the precinct results in other parts of the county."[66]

Other reported discrepancies included:

In Des Moines No. 42, "after everyone had formed initial groups for their preferred candidate," a Clinton supporter addressed O'Malley supporters and undecideds, telling them "they could stay and realign or leave.” Some mistakenly believed that meant voting was finished and left early without being counted.[69] In the same precinct, votes were still missing the morning after the caucus. Democrats "from that neighborhood scrambled to find party officials" to report that Sanders won by a margin of two delegates over Clinton. This narrowed Clinton's "excruciatingly close lead" even further—bringing the tally for "delegate equivalents" at that point to Clinton 699.57, Sanders 697.77.[70]

Coin tosses

The Des Moines Register reported "an unknown number" of county delegates awarded "after the flip of a coin." Sam Lau, a spokesman for the Iowa Democratic Party, said seven coin flips were reported through "the party's smartphone app"—but officials who reported county delegate totals via the app "weren't required to signify if the win was the result of a coin toss." Lau said Bernie Sanders won six of these. The paper identified "six coin flips through social media and one in an interview with a caucus participant"—with Clinton the apparent winner of six of these seven. Any overlap, or its impact on results, between the coin flips identified by the Register and those the party confirmed was not known.[71]

An Iowa Democratic Party official told NPR there were "at least a dozen tiebreakers" decided by a coin toss— and that "Sen. Sanders won at least a handful."[72]

Gone unmentioned so far is that even if Clinton won that Miracle Six — and there were no other coin tosses — it would make little difference in the outcome. That is, in part, because of the complicated way Iowa Democrats allocate their delegates — and what was being reported on election night and what wasn't.[73]
— Domenico Montanaro, NPR

Review

Sanders' campaign "launched" a review of the results of the caucuses, citing as "complicating factors" the "razor-thin margin", the "arcane" caucusing rules, the reporting delays from some precincts, and the reporting technology used. The campaign is rechecking results precinct-by-precinct, reviewing "math sheets or other paperwork" precinct chairs used and were supposed to return to party officials—then comparing these with results entered into the party's Microsoft app. Rania Batrice, a Sanders spokeswoman, challenged: “Let’s compare notes. Let’s see if they match."[74]

In an editorial, The Des Moines Register called for an audit of the results, declaring “What happened Monday night at the Democratic caucuses was a debacle, period."[74] First noting that only two-tenths of a percent separated Sanders and Clinton and "much larger margins trigger automatic recounts in other states," they stated:

Too many accounts have arisen of inconsistent counts, untrained and overwhelmed volunteers, confused voters, cramped precinct locations, a lack of voter registration forms and other problems. Too many of us, including members of the Register editorial board who were observing caucuses, saw opportunities for error amid Monday night’s chaos.[74]

In lieu of "official paper records" the party had "declined to provide the campaign"—which would show individual precinct vote tallies before they were entered into the party's app the night of the caucuses—the Sanders' campaign was contacting each of its own precinct captains to reconstruct caucus results.[75] Sanders' campaign manager Jeff Weaver said: "I think everybody has an interest in making it as accurate as possible", though "[a]s an empirical matter, we're not likely to ever know what the actual result was".[76]

Let’s not blow this out of proportion. This is not the biggest deal in the world. We think, by the way, based on talking to our precinct captains, we may have at least two more delegates.”[77]
— Bernie Sanders

Analysis

Iowa Caucus Winners – political cartoon by DonkeyHotey

Despite a late challenge from insurgent Senator Bernie Sanders of Vermont, whose populist economic message resonated with Iowa's progressive Democratic electorate, Clinton eked out a 0.2-percentage-point victory in the first-in-the-nation caucus, edging out Sanders by only four state delegate equivalents. As The New York Times described, Sanders' near-tie with Clinton combined with Ted Cruz's Republican victory in the caucus demonstrated how the "2016 campaign has turned to easing the palpable frustrations of a large portion of white working-class Americans who believe that the country no longer works for them."[78]

According to entrance polls, Clinton won the white vote by a 49–46 margin against Sanders, with white voters comprising 91% of the Iowa electorate. She won non-white voters more resoundingly, 58–34. Sanders won among men, 50–44, but Clinton won women, 53-42. Sanders proved his immense strength with millennials by winning 17–29-year-olds 84-14, with Clinton winning senior citizens, 69–26. Clinton won among voters who had a high school diploma or less, and among those who had a postgraduate degree, while Sanders won voters with only a college degree. Sanders won 53-44 among voters who made an income of less than $50k per year, Clinton won more affluent voters 52-42. In terms of political party affiliation, Clinton won Democrats 56-39 but lost Independents to Bernie Sanders, 69–29.[79]

Clinton won in Des Moines rather resoundingly, while Sanders won many of the more rural counties and the Quads. Sanders also won in the cities of Cedar Rapids, Davenport, and Sioux City.

Upon learning she had been awarded the state of Iowa after 1 P.M. the following day, Clinton told CNN's Wolf Blitzer, "My luck was not that good last time around, and it was wonderful to win the caucus, to have that experience." [80]

References

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  2. ↑ "All Precincts Reported: Clinton Defeats Sanders By Historically Small Margin". Des Moines, Iowa: WHO-TV.
  3. ↑ "And the Winner of the Iowa Caucus Is: Hillary Clinton (Barely)". The Advocate. ISSN 0001-8996.
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  5. ↑ "Iowa Caucus 2016: Election Results". NBC News.
  6. ↑ Taylor, Jessica (February 1, 2016). "Martin O'Malley Ends Presidential Bid". NPR. Retrieved February 1, 2016.
  7. ↑ Statement from IDP Chair on Tonight’s Historically Close Caucus Results Iowa Democratic Party. 2 February 2016.
  8. ↑ http://iowademocrats.org/wp-content/uploads/2016/02/2016-IDP-Final-Precinct-Caucus-Results-PrecinctCandidateResults1.pdf
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  66. 1 2 Jacobs, Ben (February 5, 2016). "Iowa Democratic party altered precinct's caucus results during chaotic night". The Guardian. ISSN 0261-3077. Retrieved February 6, 2016.
  67. ↑ Jacobs, Jennifer (February 5, 2016). "Iowa margin between Clinton, Sanders shifts as errors found". Des Moines Register. The USA Today Network. Retrieved February 5, 2016.
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  72. ↑ Montanaro, Domenico (February 2, 2016). "Coin-Toss Fact Check: No, Coin Flips Did Not Win Iowa For Hillary Clinton". NPR. Archived from the original on February 3, 2016. Retrieved February 3, 2016.
  73. ↑ Twitter, Domenico Montanaro. "Coin-Toss Fact Check: No, Coin Flips Did Not Win Iowa For Hillary Clinton". NPR.org. Retrieved February 3, 2016.
  74. 1 2 3 "Editorial: Something smells in the Democratic Party". Des Moines Register. Retrieved February 4, 2016.
  75. ↑ Hamburger, Tom (February 4, 2016). "Sanders campaign says it was denied paper records of Iowa caucus vote". The Washington Post. ISSN 0190-8286. Retrieved February 5, 2016.
  76. ↑ Wagner, John (February 2, 2016). "Sanders campaign reviewing Iowa caucus totals, says actual result may never be known". The Washington Post. ISSN 0190-8286. Retrieved February 2, 2016.
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  78. ↑ Barbaro, Michael (February 2, 2016). "Fury Shakes the Iowa Caucuses, Boosting Ted Cruz While Slowing Hillary Clinton". The New York Times. ISSN 0362-4331. Retrieved February 2, 2017.
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