Griffith by-election, 2014

The Division of Griffith covering the inner southern Brisbane suburbs of Balmoral, Bulimba, Camp Hill, Carina Heights, Coorparoo, Dutton Park, East Brisbane, Greenslopes, Highgate Hill, Hawthorne, Kangaroo Point, Morningside, Norman Park, Seven Hills, South Brisbane, and Woolloongabba, as well as parts of Annerley, Cannon Hill, Carina, Holland Park, Holland Park West, Mount Gravatt East, Murarrie, Tarragindi and West End.

A by-election for the Australian House of Representatives seat of Griffith occurred on Saturday 8 February 2014. Terri Butler retained the seat for Labor with a 51.8 (−1.2) percent two-party vote against Liberal National Party candidate Bill Glasson.[1]

Background

Former Prime Minister Kevin Rudd announced on 13 November 2013 that he would step down from the parliament after his party's defeat at the 2013 election.

The division of Griffith is located in the inner suburbs of Queensland's capital city, Brisbane. Since the seat's creation in 1934, Griffith has changed parties eight times. Rudd had held the seat since regaining it for Labor in 1998, having previously unsuccessfully contested the seat in 1996. Labor's Kevin Rudd retained Griffith at the 2013 election with 53 percent of the two-party-preferred vote from primary votes of Liberal 42.2 percent, Labor 40.4 percent, Greens 10.2 percent, Palmer 3.4 percent, with the remaining seven candidates on a collective 3.8 percent. Rudd's support was highest in Griffith at the 2007 election with 62.3 percent of the two-party vote when he led Labor to government. At the 2010 election he retained his seat with 58.5 percent of the two-party vote.

The tender of the resignation to the Speaker took place on 22 November 2013.[2] The writ for the election was issued on 6 January 2014.[3] Electoral rolls closed 8pm 13 January 2014, candidate nominations closed midday 16 January 2014, with declaration of candidate nominations and ballot order draw occurring midday 17 January 2014. The by-election occurred between 8am and 6pm on 8 February 2014.[4]

It was the first by-election for the House of Representatives since the Bradfield and Higgins by-elections in December 2009, the second longest interval between by-elections.

Candidates

The 11 candidate nominations in ballot paper order were:[1][5]

Candidate nominations
Party Candidate Background
  Australian Stable Population Party Timothy Lawrence Software developer.[1]
  Australian Greens Geoff Ebbs Publisher of the Westender newspaper. Contested the seat at the 2013 election.[6]
  Family First Party Christopher Williams Electrician, worship music band member. Campaigned strongly against same-sex marriage.[1][7]
  Independent Karel Boele Ran as an electronic direct democracy 'PeopleDecide' independent.[8]
  Bullet Train for Australia Anthony Ackroyd Sydney-based comedian.[9]
  Secular Party of Australia Anne Reid Accountant, secretary of the Humanist Society of Queensland. Contested the seat at the 2013 election.[1][10]
  Australian Labor Party Terri Butler Employment and IR law partner at Maurice Blackburn.[11]
  Pirate Party Australia Melanie Thomas Activist, active in Australian media industry. Contested Senate in Queensland at the 2013 election.[1]
  Independent Travis Windsor Small business mentor. Inspired by successful 2013 Cathy McGowan campaign in Indi.[12][13]
  Katter's Australian Party Ray Sawyer Worked for local government for 15 years. Contested Fairfax at the 2013 election.[1]
  Liberal National Party of Queensland Bill Glasson Ophthalmologist and former President of the Australian Medical Association. Contested the seat at the 2013 election.[14]

The Palmer United Party, Rise Up Australia Party and Socialist Alliance did not re-contest Griffith at the by-election.[10]

Betting/polling

Upon the 6 January announcement of the by-election date, odds from Sportingbet favoured Labor at $1.18 against $4.25 for the LNP.[15]

Queensland federal statewide Newspoll conducted from October to December 2013 indicated a three percent two-party swing from the LNP to Labor since the 2013 election,[16] while Nielsen conducted in November 2013 indicated a 12 percent two-party swing from the LNP to Labor.[17][18]

The last and only time a federal government won a by-election from an opposition was at the 1920 Kalgoorlie by-election. Political analysts predicted that Labor would retain Griffith.[19][20]

Two-party-preferred history

Election:197519771980198319841987199019931996199820012004200720102013
Labor:42.0%53.5%62.9%64.5%60.3%60.4%60.3%58.0%48.5%52.4%55.7%58.6%62.3%58.5%53.0%
Liberal:58.0%46.5%37.1%35.5%39.7%39.6%39.7%42.0%51.5%47.6%44.3%41.4%37.7%41.5%47.0%

Result

Griffith by-election, 2014: Griffith[21]
Party Candidate Votes % ±
Liberal National Bill Glasson 34,491 44.38 +2.16
Labor Terri Butler 30,023 38.63 −1.73
Greens Geoff Ebbs 7,635 9.82 −0.36
Pirate Melanie Thomas 1,172 1.51 +1.51
Katter's Australian Ray Sawyer 821 1.06 +0.37
Family First Christopher Williams 729 0.94 +0.20
Stable Population Timothy Lawrence 666 0.86 +0.67
Independent Travis Windsor 656 0.84 +0.84
Bullet Train Anthony Ackroyd 602 0.77 +0.77
Independent Karel Boele 504 0.65 +0.65
Secular Anne Reid 424 0.55 +0.04
Total formal votes 77,723 96.82 +1.58
Informal votes 2,552 3.18 −1.58
Turnout 80,275 82.03 −11.11
Two-party-preferred result
Labor Terri Butler 40,229 51.76 −1.25
Liberal National Bill Glasson 37,494 48.24 +1.25
Labor hold Swing −1.25

Results are final. The ABC's Antony Green said at 8pm on election night that Terri Butler had retained the seat for Labor.[22]

See also

References

  1. 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 "2014 Griffith by-election". Australian Broadcasting Corporation. Retrieved 13 January 2014.
  2. ↑ The Age 22 November 2013 - With formal resignation, Kevin Rudd irritates Coalition one more time
  3. ↑ "Issue of Writ for Griffith by-election 2014". Department of the House of Representatives. 6 January 2014.
  4. ↑ Key Dates, 2014 Griffith by-election: AEC
  5. ↑ 2014 Griffith by-election candidates: AEC
  6. ↑ Bochenski, Natalie (15 December 2013). "Local publisher Ebbs runs again for Griffith". The Brisbane Times. Retrieved 15 December 2013.
  7. ↑ Chris Williams Family First candidate: Facebook
  8. ↑ Karel Boele: PeopleDecide website
  9. ↑ "ALP 'targets' PM using local poll". The Australian. 17 January 2014.
  10. 1 2 Griffith by-election more than a two-horse race: SMH 16 January 2014
  11. ↑ "Labor endorses lawyer Terri Butler to contest Rudd seat of Griffith". ABC News. 15 December 2013. Retrieved 15 December 2013.
  12. ↑ Hinchliffe, Mark (21 October 2013). "Australian Motorcycle Business Chamber". Motorbike News.
  13. ↑ Travis Windsor website
  14. ↑ "Bill Glasson will stand for LNP in Kevin Rudd's seat of Griffith". Brisbane Times. 18 November 2013.
  15. ↑ By-election for Kevin Rudd's former seat to be on February 8: The Australian 6 January 2014
  16. ↑ Oct-Dec 2013 Quarterly aggregates: Newspoll
  17. ↑ Nov 2013 federal poll: Nielsen
  18. ↑ Labor storms ahead: SMH 26 November 2013
  19. ↑ By-election for Griffith could shake historical trend: The World Today, ABC 4 February 2014
  20. ↑ Liberal Party resigned to byelection loss in Griffith: Australian Financial Review 5 February 2014
  21. ↑ "2014 Griffith by-election results". Australian Electoral Commission. 2014.
  22. ↑ Griffith by-election: Labor's Terri Butler wins despite swing to LNP candidate Bill Glasson: ABC 8 February 2014
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