Great Recession in Africa
| Great Recession |
|---|
As a direct result of the late 2000s recession, some economies in Africa have been primarily affected by reduced global demand and lower prices of commodities such as oil, platinum, nickel, gold, and copper. South Africa was the first African country to fall in recession. Other countries like Morocco and Egypt, which benefited from their previous high economic growth experienced a great decline due to the global economic crisis without falling in recession.
South Africa
Moody's Investors Service warned on July 7, 2008 that South Africa could slip into a recession by the turn of the year. Moody's cited electricity shortages, high interest rates, soaring inflation, a slumping housing and vehicle market and lower business and consumer confidence indicators. Growth in South Africa's real gross domestic product for the first quarter of 2008 slowed to 0.39%. CPIX inflation, the monetary-policy inflation target measure, rose 10.9% on a year-on-year basis in May, its highest level since November 2002.[1] South Africa's National Treasury criticized the statement by Moody's saying, "It's not possible that we'll end up in recession." He added that the government may revise lower its 4 percent growth forecast for the year following growth of 5.1% in 2007. Car sales in South Africa dropped an annual 22 percent in June due to higher interest rates.[2]
Timeline of the Great Recession across all continents
The table below displays all national recessions appearing in 2006-2013 (for the 71 countries with available data), according to the common recession definition, saying that a recession occurred whenever seasonally adjusted real GDP contracts quarter on quarter, through minimum two consecutive quarters. Only 11 out of the 71 listed countries with quarterly GDP data (Poland, Slovakia, Moldova, India, China, South Korea, Indonesia, Australia, Uruguay, Colombia and Bolivia) escaped a recession in this time period.
The few recessions appearing early in 2006-07 are commonly never associated to be part of the Great Recession, which is illustrated by the fact that only two countries (Iceland and Jamaica) were in recession in Q4-2007.
One year before the maximum, in Q1-2008, only six countries were in recession (Iceland, Sweden, Finland, Ireland, Portugal and New Zealand). The number of countries in recession was 25 in Q2‑2008, 39 in Q3‑2008 and 53 in Q4‑2008. At the steepest part of the Great Recession in Q1‑2009, a total of 59 out of 71 countries were simultaneously in recession. The number of countries in recession was 37 in Q2‑2009, 13 in Q3‑2009 and 11 in Q4‑2009. One year after the maximum, in Q1‑2010, only seven countries were in recession (Greece, Croatia, Romania, Iceland, Jamaica, Venezuela and Belize).
The recession data for the overall G20-zone (representing 85% of all GWP), depict that the Great Recession existed as a global recession throughout Q3‑2008 until Q1‑2009.
Subsequent follow-up recessions in 2010‑2013 were confined to Belize, El Salvador, Paraguay, Jamaica, Japan, Taiwan, New Zealand and 24 out of 50 European countries (including Greece). As of October 2014, only five out of the 71 countries with available quarterly data (Cyprus, Italy, Croatia, Belize and El Salvador), were still in ongoing recessions.[3][4] The many follow-up recessions hitting the European countries, are commonly referred to as being direct repercussions of the European sovereign‑debt crisis.
| Country[lower-alpha 1] | Recession period(s) during 2006‑2013[3][4] (measured by quarter-on-quarter changes of seasonally adjusted real GDP, as per the latest revised Q3-2013 data from 10 January 2014)[lower-alpha 2] |
|---|---|
| Albania | Q1-2007 until Q2-2007 (6 months)[5] Q3-2009 until Q4-2009 (6 months)[5] Q4-2011 until Q1-2012 (6 months)[5] |
| Argentina | Q4-2008 until Q2-2009 (9 months) Q1-2012 until Q2-2012 (6 months) Q3-2013 until Q3-2014 (12 months) Q3-2015 until Q3-2016 (15 months) |
| Australia | None |
| Austria | Q2-2008 until Q2-2009 (15 months) Q3-2011 until Q4-2011 (6 months) |
| Belgium | Q3-2008 until Q1-2009 (9 months) Q2-2012 until Q1-2013 (12 months) |
| Belize | Q1-2006 until Q2-2006 (6 months)[6] Q1-2007 until Q3-2007 (9 months)[6] Q4-2008 until Q1-2009 (6 months)[6] Q4-2009 until Q1-2010 (6 months)[6] Q1-2011 until Q2-2011 (6 months)[6] Q2-2013 until Ongoing (48 months)[6] |
| Bolivia | None[7][lower-alpha 3] |
| Brazil | Q4-2008 until Q1-2009 (6 months) Q1-2014 until Q4-2016 (36 months) |
| Bulgaria | Q1-2009 until Q2-2009 (6 months) |
| Canada | Q4-2008 until Q2-2009 (9 months) |
| Chile | Q2-2008 until Q1-2009 (12 months) |
| China | None |
| Colombia | None[8][9] |
| Costa Rica | Q2-2008 until Q1-2009 (12 months)[10] |
| Croatia | Q3-2008 until Q2-2010 (24 months) Q3-2011 until Q4-2012 (18 months) Q2-2013 until Q2 2014 (15 months) |
| Cyprus | Q1-2009 until Q4-2009 (12 months) Q3-2011 until Q4-2014 (42 months) |
| Czech Republic | Q4-2008 until Q2-2009 (9 months) Q4-2011 until Q1-2013 (18 months) |
| Denmark | Q3-2008 until Q2-2009 (12 months) Q3-2011 until Q4-2011 (6 months) Q4-2012 until Q1-2013 (6 months) |
| Ecuador | Q4-2006 until Q1-2007 (6 months)[11] Q1-2009 until Q3-2009 (9 months)[12][13] |
| El Salvador | Q3-2008 until Q2-2009 (12 months)[14][lower-alpha 4] |
| Estonia | Q3-2008 until Q3-2009 (15 months) Q1-2013 until Q2-2013 (6 months) |
| EU (28 member states) | Q2-2008 until Q2-2009 (15 months) Q4-2011 until Q2-2012 (9 months) Q4-2012 until Q1-2013 (6 months) |
| Eurozone (17 member states) | Q2-2008 until Q2-2009 (15 months) Q4-2011 until Q1-2013 (18 months) |
| Finland | Q1-2008 until Q2-2009 (18 months) Q2-2012 until Q1-2015 (36 months) |
| France | Q2-2008 until Q2-2009 (15 months) Q4-2012 until Q1-2013 (6 months) |
| G20 (43 member states, PPP-weighted GDP)[lower-alpha 5] | Q3-2008 until Q1-2009 (9 months) |
| Germany | Q2-2008 until Q1-2009 (12 months) |
| Greece | Q3-2008 until Q2-2014 (63 months) Q1-2015 until Q1-2017 (27 months) |
| Hong Kong | Q2-2008 until Q1-2009 (12 months)[17] |
| Hungary | Q1-2007 until Q2-2007 (6 months) Q2-2008 until Q3-2009 (18 months) Q2-2011 until Q3-2011 (6 months) Q1-2012 until Q4-2012 (12 months) |
| Iceland | Q4-2007 until Q2-2008 (9 months) Q4-2008 until Q1-2009 (6 months) Q3-2009 until Q2-2010 (12 months) |
| India | None |
| Indonesia | None |
| Ireland | Q2-2007 until Q3-2007 (6 months) Q1-2008 until Q4-2009 (24 months) Q3-2011 until Q2-2013 (24 months) |
| Israel | Q4-2008 until Q1-2009 (6 months) |
| Italy | Q3-2007 until Q4-2007 (6 months) Q2-2008 until Q2-2009 (15 months) Q3-2011 until Q3-2013 (27 months) Q1-2014 until Q4-2014 (12 months) |
| Jamaica | Q3-2007 until Q4-2007 (6 months)[18] Q3-2008 until Q1-2009 (9 months)[18] Q4-2009 until Q2-2010 (9 months)[18] Q4-2011 until Q1-2012 (6 months)[18] Q4-2012 until Q1-2013 (6 months)[18] |
| Japan | Q2-2008 until Q1-2009 (12 months) Q4-2010 until Q2-2011 (9 months) Q2-2012 until Q3-2012 (6 months) |
| Kazakhstan | Q3-2008 until Q1-2009 (9 months)[19][lower-alpha 6] |
| Latvia | Q1-2008 until Q3-2009 (18 months) Q1-2010 until Q2-2010 (12 months) |
| Lithuania | Q3-2008 until Q2-2009 (12 months) |
| Luxembourg | Q2-2008 until Q1-2009 (12 months) |
| Macedonia | Q1-2009 until Q3-2009 (9 months)[20] Q1-2012 until Q2-2012 (6 months)[20] (not qoq-data, but quarters compared with same quarter of last year)[lower-alpha 2] Q1-2012 until Q2-2012 (6 months) |
| Malaysia | Q3-2008 until Q1-2009 (9 months)[21][22] |
| Malta | Q4-2008 until Q1-2009 (6 months) |
| Mexico | Q3-2008 until Q2-2009 (12 months) |
| Moldova | None[23][lower-alpha 7] |
| Netherlands | Q2-2008 until Q2-2009 (15 months) Q2-2011 until Q1-2012 (12 months) Q3-2012 until Q2-2013 (12 months) |
| New Zealand | Q1-2008 until Q2-2009 (18 months) Q3-2010 until Q4-2010 (6 months) |
| Norway | Q1-2009 until Q2-2009 (6 months) Q2-2010 until Q3-2010 (6 months) Q1-2011 until Q2-2011 (6 months) |
| OECD (34 member states, PPP-weighted GDP) | Q2-2008 until Q1-2009 (12 months) |
| Paraguay | Q3-2008 until Q1-2009 (9 months)[24] Q2-2011 until Q3-2011 (6 months)[24] |
| Peru | Q4-2008 until Q2-2009 (9 months)[25] |
| Philippines | Q4-2008 until Q1-2009 (6 months)[26][27] |
| Poland | None |
| Portugal | Q2-2007 until Q3-2007 (6 months) Q1-2008 until Q1-2009 (15 months) Q4-2010 until Q1-2013 (30 months) |
| Romania | Q4-2008 until Q2-2009 (9 months) Q4-2009 until Q1-2010 (6 months) Q4-2011 until Q1-2012 (6 months) |
| Russia | Q3-2008 until Q2-2009 (12 months) Q4-2014 until Q4-2016 (27 months) |
| Serbia | Q2-2008 until Q2-2009 (15 months)[28] Q2-2011 until Q1-2012 (12 months)[28] Q3-2012 until Q4-2012 (6 months)[28] |
| Singapore | Q2-2008 until Q1-2009 (12 months)[29][30][31][32][33] |
| Slovakia | None |
| Slovenia | Q3-2008 until Q2-2009 (12 months) Q3-2011 until Q4-2013 (24 months)[34][35] |
| South Africa | Q4-2008 until Q2-2009 (9 months) |
| South Korea | None |
| Spain | Q2-2008 until Q4-2009 (21 months) Q2-2011 until Q2-2013 (27 months) |
| Sweden | Q1-2008 until Q1-2009 (15 months) |
| Switzerland | Q4-2008 until Q2-2009 (9 months) |
| Taiwan | Q2-2008 until Q1-2009 (12 months)[36] Q3-2011 until Q4-2011 (6 months)[36] |
| Thailand | Q4-2008 until Q1-2009 (6 months)[37] |
| Turkey | Q2-2008 until Q1-2009 (12 months) |
| Ukraine | Q2-2008 until Q1-2009 (12 months)[38] Q3-2012 until Q4-2012 (6 months)[38][39][40] |
| United Kingdom | Q2-2008 until Q2-2009 (15 months)[41] |
| United States | Q3-2008 until Q2-2009 (12 months) |
| Uruguay | None[42] |
| Venezuela | Q1-2009 until Q1-2010 (15 months)[43] |
- ↑ 105 out of the 206 sovereign countries in the World, did not publish any quarterly GDP data for the 2006‑2013 period. The following 21 countries were also excluded from the table, due to only publishing unadjusted quarterly real GDP figures with no seasonal adjustment: Armenia, Azerbaijan, Belarus, Brunei, Dominican Republic, Egypt, Georgia, Guatemala, Iran, Jordan, Macao, Montenegro, Morocco, Nicaragua, Nigeria, Palestine, Qatar, Rwanda, Sri Lanka, Trinidad and Tobago, Vietnam.
- 1 2 Only seasonally adjusted qoq-data can be used to accurately determine recession periods. When quarterly change is calculated by comparing quarters with the same quarter of last year, this results only in an aggregated -often delayed- indication, because of being a product of all quarterly changes taking place since the same quarter last year. Currently there is no seasonal adjusted qoq-data available for Greece and Macedonia, which is why the table display the recession intervals for these two countries only based upon the alternative indicative data format.
- ↑ Bolivia had as of January 2014 only published seasonally adjusted real GDP data until Q1-2010, with the statistics office still to publish data for 2010-13.[7]
- ↑ According to the methodology note for the quarterly GDP of El Salvador, this data series include seasonally adjustments.[15]
- ↑ The G20-zone represents 85% of all GWP, and comprise 19 member states (incl. UK, France, Germany and Italy) along with the EU Commission as the 20th member, who represents the remaining 24 EU member states in the forum.[16]
- ↑ Kazakhstan had as of January 2014 only published seasonally adjusted real GDP data until Q4-2009, with the statistics office still to publish data for 2010-13.[19]
- ↑ Moldova had as of January 2014 only published seasonally adjusted real GDP data until Q4-2010, with the statistics office still to publish data for 2011-13.[23]
References
- ↑ "Moody's says South Africa may slip into recession". Market Watch. 2008-07-07. Retrieved 2008-07-19.
- ↑ "South Africa Says Moody's Recession Claim `Alarmist'". Bloomberg. 2008-07-09. Retrieved 2008-07-19.
- 1 2 "Quarterly National Accounts : Quarterly Growth Rates of real GDP, change over previous quarter". Stats.oecd.org. Retrieved 2013-08-17.
- 1 2 "GDP and main components - volumes: Percentage change on previous quarter (seasonally adjusted, and adjusted by working days)". Eurostat. 10 January 2014. Retrieved 10 January 2014.
- 1 2 3 "Albanian Real growth rate from one quarter to the previous quarter, seasonally adjusted (Qt,i/Qt,i-1), (2005=100)" (XLS). INSTAT. 8 January 2014.
- 1 2 3 4 5 6 "Third Quarter GDP Times Series 2013: Gross Domestic Product by Activity, Constant 2000 prices – BZ$ million" (XLS). Statistical Institute of Belize. 18 December 2013.
- 1 2 "PRODUCTO INTERNO BRUTO TRIMESTRAL 2010 Primer Trimestre (each chapter is packed into an overall rar file)" (RAR+PDF). PIBtrimestral1r20104.pdf: Capítulo IV (Ajuste Estacional y Extracción de Señales Por Actividad Económica) - Cuadro N° 04.01.02, BOLIVIA: VARIACIÓN CON RELACIÓN AL PERIODO ANTERIOR DE LA DESESTACIONALIZACIÓN DEL PRODUCTO INTERNO BRUTO POR ACTIVIDAD ECONÓMICA SEGÚN, TRIMESTRE, 1991 - 2010 (En porcentaje) (in Spanish). Instituto Nacional de Estadística de Bolivia. 30 July 2010.
- ↑ "Gross Domestic Product (GDP) at 2005 Constant Prices by Area of Economic Activity - Seasonally Adjusted. Quarterly Since 2000: Quarterly Percentage Change" (XLS). Banco de la República, Colombia. 19 September 2013.
- ↑ "GDP by branch of activity: By branches of economic activity at constant prices for 2005 deseasonalized series / 2000-I a 2013-III" (XLS). Departamento Administrativo Nacional de Estadística (DANE). 19 December 2013.
- ↑ "Gross Domestic Product (1991-2013, at 1991 constant prices): Original Series, Trend Cycle and Seasonally Adjusted Series". Banco Central de Costa Rica. 7 January 2014.
- ↑ "Cuentas Nacionales Trimestrales del Ecuador No.65 (Enero 2009)" (PDF). Cuadro No 1: Oferta - Utilizacion de bienes y servicios, variacion trimestral, tasas de t/t-1, dolares constantes de 2000, P.I.B. (in Spanish). Banco Central del Ecuador. 27 January 2009.
- ↑ "Estadisticas Macroecomicas - Presentacion Coyuntural (Diciembre 2012)" (PDF). PRODUCTO INTERNO BRUTO, PIB, (Precios constantes de 2007, datos desestacionalizados, Tasas de variación, Variación t/t-1) (in Spanish). Banco Central del Ecuador. 1 February 2013.
- ↑ "Estadisticas Macroecomicas - Presentacion Coyuntural (Diciembre 2013)" (PDF). PRODUCTO INTERNO BRUTO - PIB, Precios constantes de 2007, Tasas de variación, Variación t/t-1 (in Spanish). Banco Central del Ecuador. 13 December 2013.
- ↑ "1- Base de Datos Económica-Financiera > IV.7 Producto Interno Bruto Trimestral (PIBt)" (in Spanish). Banco Central de Reserva de El Salvador. 30 December 2013.
- ↑ "Boletín Económico: Metodología Producto Interno Bruto Trimestral, Base 1990" (PDF) (in Spanish). Banco Central de Reserva de El Salvador. 27 October 2006.
- ↑ "G20 Members". G20.org. Retrieved 15 January 2014.
- ↑ "Statistical Table Customization: Seasonally adjusted GDP and selected expenditure components - percentage changes in real terms over the preceding quarter". Census and Statistics Department (Hong Kong). 15 November 2013.
- 1 2 3 4 5 "Jamaican Economic Statistics: National Accounts: Quarterly Rate of Growth of Value Added GDP by Industry at Constant 2007 Prices (Seasonally Adjusted)". Statistical Institute of Jamaica. 31 December 2013.
- 1 2 "GDP by the production method: Basic indexes - GDP allowing for seasonal fluctuations" (DOC). The Agency of Statistics of the Republic of Kazakhstan. 2012.
- 1 2 "Table: Gross Domestic Product by production approach, by NKD Rev.1, by quarters (volume indices, compared to the corresponding period of the previous year, %)". MAK Stat Database. State Statistical Office of the Republic of Macedonia. 13 December 2013.
- ↑ "Gross Domestic Product 2013 second quarter, seasonal adjustment" (PDF). Table 1B: Seasonally Adjusted GDP at constant 2005 prices - Percentage Change from Preceding Quarter. Department of Statistics, Malaysia. 22 August 2013.
- ↑ "Quarterly Gross Domestic Product 2013 third quarter" (PDF). Chart 3 and Table 6B: Seasonally Adjusted GDP at constant 2005 prices - Percentage Change from Preceding Quarter. Department of Statistics, Malaysia. 15 November 2013.
- 1 2 "Databank table: Seasonally adjustments of Gross Domestic Product and of main elements of use, average prices of 2000, 1995-2010". National Bureau Of Statistics of the Rublic Of Moldova. 31 May 2011.
- 1 2 "CUENTAS NACIONALES DE PARAGUAY - TERCER TRIMESTRE 2013" (PDF). Anexo: Tasas de variacion - PIB desestacionalizado (t/t-1) (in Spanish). Banco Central del Paraguay. 20 December 2013.
- ↑ "Informe Técnico - PBI Trimestral Nº 04 Noviembre 2013: Comportamiento de la Economía Peruana en el Tercer Trimestre de 2013" (PDF). Anexo Nº 4: SERIE DESESTACIONALIZADA POR TIPO DE GASTO, 2002_I - 2013_III (Variación porcentual trimestral del Índice de Volumen Físico respecto al trimestre anterior, Valores a precios constantes de 1994) (in Spanish). Instituto Nacional de Estadística e Informática (INEI). 22 November 2013.
- ↑ "3rd Quarter 2013 National Accounts of the Philippines (multiple files packed as a rar file)" (RAR). 3Q2013_SANA_PUB.XLS (page 3): Summary Table 1 - SEASONALLY ADJUSTED NATIONAL ACCOUNTS SERIES at Constant 2000 Prices: Quarter to quarter in million Pesos (First Quarter 1998 to Third Quarter 2013). National Statistical Coordination Board. 28 November 2013.
- ↑ "The seasonally adjusted national accounts of the Philippines (Third Quarter 2013): SEASONALLY ADJUSTED NATIONAL ACCOUNTS SERIES at Constant 2000 Prices: Quarter to quarter growth rates (First Quarter 1998 to Third Quarter 2013)". National Statistical Coordination Board. 28 November 2013.
- 1 2 3 "Quarterly gross domestic product by production approach, at constant prices, seasonally adjusted data, of the Republic of Serbia". Statistical Office of the Republic of Serbia. 31 December 2013.
- ↑ SingStat Time Series (access to database require payment subscription)
- ↑ "Statistical Tables from Economic Survey of Singapore (Fourth Quarter 2008): GDP by Industry at 2000 prices, Seasonally Adjusted" (PDF). Statistics Singapore. 26 February 2009.
- ↑ "Statistical Tables from Economic Survey of Singapore (Fourth Quarter 2010): GDP by Industry at 2005 prices, Seasonally Adjusted" (PDF). Statistics Singapore. 17 February 2011.
- ↑ "Statistical Tables from Economic Survey of Singapore (Third Quarter 2013): GDP by Industry at 2005 prices, Seasonally Adjusted" (PDF). Statistics Singapore. 21 November 2013.
- ↑ "SingStat Table Builder: National Accounts: M013362 - Gross Domestic Product At 2005 Market Prices, By Industry, Quarterly, (SA) (Period on Period)". Statistics Singapore. 21 November 2013.
- ↑ http://www.24ur.com/novice/gospodarstvo/recesije-je-konec-bruselj-nam-napoveduje-rast.html
- ↑ http://www.sloveniatimes.com/light-at-the-end-of-the-tunnel-slovenia-technically-out-of-recession
- 1 2 "Macro database: GDP by Expenditures - Seasonally Adjusted (Quarterly, at 2006 prices, 1981-2013)". National Statistics - Republic of China (Taiwan). 29 November 2013.
- ↑ "Gross Domestic Product 1993 until Q3/2013: Table 6.1 - Gross National Product and GDP at 1988 Prices (Seasonally Adjusted) q-o-q Growth Rate" (XLS). Office of the National Economic and Social Development Board (Thailand). 18 November 2013.
- 1 2 "Quarterly gross domestic product estimates of Ukraine for 2001 – 2012" (PDF). Seasonally Adjustment of gross domestic product at constant prices of 2007 (Table 5.1 - Gross Domestic Product, page 99). State Statistics Service Of Ukraine. 30 August 2013.
- ↑ "ЕКСПРЕС-ВИПУСК: ВАЛОВИЙ ВНУТРІШНІЙ ПРОДУКТ УКРАЇНИ ЗА 1 КВАРТАЛ - 4 КВАРТАЛ 2012 РОКУ - ВАЛОВИЙ ВНУТРІШНІЙ ПРОДУКТ ВИРОБНИЧИМ МЕТОДОМ (RAPID RELEASE: GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT OF UKRAINE Q1-Q4 2012 - Gross domestic product production methods)" (Zip PDF) (in Ukrainian). State Statistics Service Of Ukraine. 17 March 2014.
- ↑ "ЕКСПРЕС-ВИПУСК: ВАЛОВИЙ ВНУТРІШНІЙ ПРОДУКТ УКРАЇНИ ЗА 1 КВАРТАЛ - 4 КВАРТАЛ 2013 РОКУ - ВАЛОВИЙ ВНУТРІШНІЙ ПРОДУКТ ВИРОБНИЧИМ МЕТОДОМ (RAPID RELEASE: GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT OF UKRAINE Q1-Q4 2013 - Gross domestic product production methods)" (Zip PDF) (in Ukrainian). State Statistics Service Of Ukraine. 11 March 2014.
- ↑ "Gross Domestic Product Quarter on Quarter growth". Office for National Statistics. 1 July 2016.
- ↑ "Informe Trimestral de Cuentas Nacionales: Julio – Setiembre 2013" (PDF) (in Spanish). Banco Central del Uruguay. 13 December 2013.
- ↑ "AGREGADOS_MACROECONÓMICOS: PIB Desestacionalizado. Base 1997 (Trimestral)" (XLS) (in Spanish). 9 December 2013.
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