Climate change in California

Animated map of the progression of the drought in California in 2014, during which the drought covered 100% of California. As of December 2014, 75% of California was under Extreme (Red) or Exceptional (Maroon) Drought. The California drought continued after 2014.[1][2]

California has taken legislative steps towards reducing the possible effects of climate change by incentives and plans for clean cars, renewable energy, and stringent caps on big polluting industries.[3]

Scoping Plan

Development of the Scoping Plan is a central requirement of AB 32, that calls on California to reduce its greenhouse gas emissions to 1990 levels by 2020.[4]

The comprehensive approach includes both new and existing measures in every sector of California's economy.

It includes a series of proposals that would become law in 2012, with some measures going into effect two years earlier. The initiatives include implementing a cap-and-trade program on carbon dioxide emissions (that will be developed in conjunction with the Western Climate Initiative, to create a regional carbon market) that will require buildings and appliances to use less energy, oil companies to make cleaner fuels, and utilities to provide a third of their energy from renewable sources like wind, solar and geothermal power and proposes to expand and strengthen existing energy efficiency programs. The Plan will also encourage development of walkable cities with shorter commutes, high-speed rail as an alternative to air travel, and will require more hybrid vehicles to move goods and people, following the implementation of the California Clean Car law (the Pavley standards).[5]

Several additional initiatives and measures play important roles in reaching the required reductions under AB 32. These include:[4]

Legislation

California has enacted climate change legislation & executive orders:[6]

Similar laws

States with similar limits are: New York, Massachusetts, Connecticut, Vermont, Rhode Island, Maine, and New Jersey.

In 2006, California governor Arnold Schwarzenegger expressed interest in California joining the Regional Greenhouse Gas Initiative[9]

AB 1493

It is the successor bill to AB 1058, was enacted on July 22, 2002 by Governor Gray Davis and mandates that the California Air Resources Board (CARB) develop and implement greenhouse gas limits for vehicles beginning in model year 2009. Subsequently, as directed by AB 1493, the CARB on September 24, 2004 approved regulations limiting the amount of greenhouse gas that may be released from new passenger cars, SUVs and pickup trucks sold in California in model year 2009. The automotive industry has sued, claiming this is simply a way to impose gas mileage standards on automobiles—a field already preempted by federal rules. The case is working its way through the court system. The CARB staff's analysis has concluded that the new rules will result in savings for vehicle buyers through lower fuel expenses that will more than offset the increased initial costs of new vehicles. Critics claim that these will only work if serious reductions are made in automobile and truck sizes.

California standard uses grams per mile average CO2-equivalent value, which means that emissions of the various greenhouse gases are weighted to take into account their differing impact on climate change (i.e. maximum 323 g/mi (200 g/km) in 2009 and 205 g/mi (127 g/km) in 2016 for passenger cars).[10]

A federal district court ruled on December 12, 2007 that the state and federal laws could co-exist,[11] but on December 19, the EPA denied California's request for the necessary waiver to implement its law, saying the local emissions had little effect on global warming, and that the conditions in California were not "compelling and extraordinary" as required by law.[12] California intends to sue the EPA to force reconsideration, given the precedent of Massachusetts v. EPA, which ruled that carbon dioxide was an air pollutant which EPA had authority to regulate.[13][14] Arizona, Colorado, Connecticut, Florida, Maine, Maryland, Massachusetts, New Jersey, New Mexico, New York, Oregon, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, Utah, Vermont, and Washington are also interested in adopting California's automobile emissions standards.

AB 32

In September 2006, the California State Legislature passed AB 32, the Global Warming Solutions Act of 2006[15] with the goal of reducing man-made California greenhouse gas emissions (1.4% of global emissions in 2004[16]) back to 1990 emission levels by 2020. The legislation grants the Air Resource Board extraordinary powers to set policies, draw up regulations, lead the enforcement effort, levy fines and fees to finance it and punish violators. The technical and regulatory requirements are far reaching. Some of this sweeping regulation is being challenged in the courts. The law is intended to make low-carbon technology more attractive, and promote its adoption in production in California.

Timeline

Below is a timeline that encompasses the recent greenhouse gas emissions reduction bills currently into law in California:[17][18][19]

Deadline What needs to happen Bill
June 2005 California Executive Order S-3-05 signed by then Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger establishing a comprehensive greenhouse gas reduction plan S-3-05
September 2006 AB-32 (Global Warming Solutions Act of 2006) signed into law by then Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger establishing GHG reduction goals for 2020. AB-32
January 2008 CARB adopts Mandatory Reporting Regulation for GHGs AB-32
January 2009 CARB adopts Scoping Plan AB-32
January 2010 Early action measures go into effect AB-32
During 2010 CARB writes rules to adopt GHG regulations AB-32
December 2010 Deadline to reduce GHG emissions to 2000 levels S-3-05
January 2011 CARB completes rule makings for GHG reduction AB-32
January 2012 GHG rules adopted and implemented AB-32
November 2012 First quarterly auction of GHG emissions as part of Cap and Trade program occur AB-32
January 2013 Cap and Trade program begins AB-32
September 2013 CARB issues first carbon offset credits AB-32
May 2014 CARB approves first update to the Scoping Plan AB-32
April 2015 California Executive Order B-30-15 is signed into law by Governor Jerry Brown B-30-15
September 2016 Senate Bill 32 and Assembly Bill 197 are signed into law by Governor Jerry Brown SB-32, AB-197
January 2017 SB-32 and AB-197 go into effect SB-32, AB-197
January 2018 CARB adds toxic air contaminant emissions inventory AB-197
December 2020 Deadline for reduction of GHG levels to 1990 levels AB-32, S-3-05
December 2030 Deadline for reduction of GHG emissions to 40% below 1990 levels SB-32, B-30-15
December 2050 Deadline for reduction of GHG emissions to 80% below 1990 levels S-3-05

Alternative Fuel Vehicle Incentive Program

The Alternative Fuel Vehicle Incentive Program (abbreviated as AFVIP,[20] also known as Fueling Alternatives) is funded by the California Air Resources Board (CARB), offered throughout the state of California and administered by the California Center for Sustainable Energy (CCSE).[21] A total of $25 million [22] was appropriated to promote the use and production of vehicles capable of running on alternative fuels. Such alternative energy sources include compressed natural gas and electricity via all-electric vehicles and Plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEV).[23][24]

Vehicles using alternative fuels include Global Electric Motorcars, Vectrix, and ZAP vehicles. The 2008 Tesla Roadster and 2008 ZENN neighborhood electric vehicle are also on the list of vehicles eligible for rebates under the Fueling Alternatives.

PHEV Research Center

The PHEV Research Center was launched with fundings from the California Air Resources Board. Fueling Alternatives includes, among others, Global Electric Motorcars, Vectrix and ZAP vehicles. The 2008 Tesla Roadster and 2008 ZENN neighborhood electric vehicle have been added to the list of vehicles eligible for rebates under the Fueling Alternatives [13] .

Labeling of new vehicles for sale

Since January 1, 2009, all new vehicles sold in California have been required to be labeled with a California Air Resources Board window sticker showing both a Smog Score and a Global Warming Score. The scores are on a 1-10 scale, with 5 being average and with 10 being the best (i.e., emitting the least carbon dioxide). Data comes from the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency.[25]

Extreme weather incidents

A 2011 study projected that the frequency and magnitude of both maximum and minimum temperatures would increase significantly as a result of global warming.[26]

Drought

Percent Area in U.S. Drought Monitor Categories

According to the NOAA Drought Task Force report of 2014, the drought is not part of a long-term change in precipitation and was a symptom of the natural variability, although the record-high temperature that accompanied the recent drought may have been amplified due to human-induced global warming.[27] This was confirmed by a 2015 scientific study which estimated that global warming "accounted for 8–27% of the observed drought anomaly in 2012–2014... Although natural variability dominates, anthropogenic warming has substantially increased the overall likelihood of extreme California droughts."

[28]

In February 2014, the Californian drought reached for the first time in the 54-year history of the State Water Project to shortages of water supplies. The California Department of Water Resources planned to reduce water allocations to farmland by 50%. California's 38 million residents experienced 13 consecutive months of drought. This is particularly an issue for the state's 44.7 billion dollar agricultural industry, which produces nearly half of all U.S.-grown fruits, nuts, and vegetables.[29] According to NASA, tests published in January 2014 have shown that the twelve months prior to January 2014 were the driest on record, since record-keeping began in 1885.[30] Lack of water due to low snowpack prompted Californian governor Jerry Brown to order a series of stringent mandatory water restrictions on April 1, 2015.[31]

Consequences

Health consequences

Expected increases in extreme weather could lead to increased risk of illnesses and death.[32]

Heat waves

From May to September 1999 – 2003, a study was conducted in nine Californian counties that found that for every 10 °F (5.6 °C) increase in temperature, there is a 2.6 percent increase in cardiovascular deaths.[33]

2006 heat wave

A study of the 2006 Californian heat wave showed an increase of 16,166 emergency room visits, and 1,182 hospitalizations. There was also a dramatic increase in heat related illnesses; a six-fold increase in heat-related emergency room visits, and 10-fold increase in hospitalizations.[34]

A study of seven counties impacted by the 2006 heat wave found a 9 percent increase in daily mortality per 10 degrees Fahrenheit change din apparent temperature for all counties combined. This estimate is 3 times greater than the effect estimated for the rest of the warm season. The estimates indicate that actual mortality during the 2006 heat wave was two or three times greater than the initial coroner estimate of 147 deaths.[35]

Air pollution

Research suggests that the majority of air pollution related health effects are caused by ozone (O3) and particulate matter (PM). It should be noted that many other pollutants that are associated with climate change, such as nitrogen dioxide, sulfur dioxide, and carbon monoxide, also have health consequences.[36]

Five of the ten most ozone-polluted metropolitan areas in the United States (Los Angeles, Bakersfield, Visalia, Fresno, and Sacramento) are in California.[37][38] Californians suffer from a large variety of health consequences due to air pollution – including 18,000 premature deaths each year and tens of thousands of other illnesses.[39]

Climate change may lead to exacerbated air pollution problems. Higher temperatures catalyze chemical interactions between nitrogen oxide, volatile organic gases and sunlight that lead to increases in ambient ozone concentrations in urban areas. A study found that for each 1 degree Celsius (1 °C) rise in temperature in the United States, there are an estimated 20–30 excess cancer cases, as well as approximately 1000 (CI: 350–1800) excess air-pollution-associated deaths.[40] About 40 percent of the additional deaths may be due to ozone and the rest to particulate matter annually. Three hundred of these annual deaths are thought to occur in California.[41]

Economic consequences

Basic necessities

The Natural Resources Defense Council (NRDC) estimates that under a business-as-usual scenario, between the years 2025 and 2100, the cost of providing water to the western states in the United States will increase from $200 billion to $950 billion per year, an estimated 0.93–1 percent of the United States' gross domestic product (GDP). Four climate change impacts—hurricane damage, energy costs, real estate losses, and water costs—alone are projected to cost 1.8 percent of the GDP of the United States, or, just under $1.9 trillion in 2008 U.S. dollars by the year 2100.[42]

Job opportunities

A study conducted in 2009 showed that increases in frequency and intensity of extreme weather due to climate change will lead to a decreased productivity of agriculture, revenue losses, and the potential for lay offs.[43] Changing weather and precipitation patterns could require expensive adaptation measures, such as relocating crop cultivation, changing the composition or type of crops, and increasing inputs such as pesticides to adapt to changes in ecological composition, that lead to economic denigration and job loss.[37] Climate change has adverse effects on agricultural productivity in California that cause laborers to be increasingly affected by job loss. For example, the two highest-value agricultural products in California’s $30 billion agriculture sector are dairy products (milk and cream, valued at $3.8 billion annually) and grapes ($3.2 billion annually).[44] Climate change is expected to decrease dairy production by between 7–22 percent by the end of the century.[45] It is also expected to adversely affect the ripening of wine grapes, substantially reducing their market value.[46]

See also

References

  1. ↑ "# drought maps show just how thirsty California has become". L.A. Times. May 5, 2016.
  2. ↑ http://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/
  3. ↑ Barringer, Felicity (October 13, 2012). "In California, a Grand Experiment to Rein in Climate Change". The New York Times.
  4. 1 2 Press Release: 2008-06-26 Plan to slash greenhouse gases sets state on path to clean energy, new economic growth
  5. ↑ ENN: California unveils ambitious climate plan
  6. ↑ Documents About Climate Change and California
  7. ↑ "SB-1204 California Clean Truck, Bus, and Off-Road Vehicle and Equipment Technology Program.". CA gov. Retrieved September 22, 2014.
  8. ↑ "Senate Bill No. 1275" (PDF). www.leginfo.ca.gov.
  9. ↑ Gov. Schwarzenegger Announces Executive Order to Begin Implementation of Landmark Greenhouse Gas Legislation; Focuses on Developing Market-Based Solutions - Press Release by Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger
  10. ↑ Notice, the final rulemaking package was approved by OAL and filed with the Secretary of the State on September 15, 2005 -it became operative on October 15, 2005- and Final Regulation Order that amends the California Code of Regulations.
  11. ↑ http://www.foe.org/pavley/12.12.07_Pavley_Ruling.pdf
  12. ↑ EPA Rejects California's Greenhouse Gas Tailpipe Law
  13. ↑ Massachusetts vs. EPA, 05-1120 - full text
  14. ↑ Ruling helps California battle global warming
  15. ↑ Text of AB 32
  16. ↑ Brown, Susan J. "California Greenhouse Gas Emissions Trends and Selected Policy Options" (Slide presentation). California Energy Commission. "Archived copy" (PDF). Archived from the original (PDF) on May 29, 2008. Retrieved 2011-05-05.
  17. ↑ "SB-32 California Global Warming Solutions Act of 2006: emissions limit". Bill Text- SB-32. Retrieved 1 December 2016.
  18. ↑ "AB-197 State Air Resources Board: greenhouse gases: regulations". Bill Text- AB-197. Retrieved 1 December 2016.
  19. ↑ "Assembly Bill 32 Overview". Assembly Bill 32 - California Global Warming Solutions Act of 2006. Retrieved 3 December 2016.
  20. ↑ "Alternative Fuel Incentive Program". ARB.ca.gov. Retrieved September 3, 2010.
  21. ↑ "Center For Sustainability Energy". CCSE. Retrieved September 3, 2010.
  22. ↑ "ARB Public Meeting For Allocation of $25 Million". ARB.ca.gov. Retrieved September 3, 2010.
  23. ↑ California Center for Sustainable Energy : Fueling Alternatives Rebate Countdown Archived May 31, 2008, at the Wayback Machine.
  24. ↑ California Center for Sustainable Energy : Fueling Alternatives Archived July 3, 2008, at the Wayback Machine.
  25. ↑ New Calif. cars to sport greenhouse gas labels: 'Global Warming Score' will show buyers estimated emissions, Associated Press (June 20, 2008).
  26. ↑ Mastrandrea, M. D.; Tebaldi, C.; Snyder, C. W.; Schneider, S. H. (2011). "Current and future impacts of extreme events in California". Climatic Change. 109: 43. doi:10.1007/s10584-011-0311-6.
  27. ↑ http://cpo.noaa.gov/ClimatePrograms/ModelingAnalysisPredictionsandProjections/MAPPTaskForces/DroughtTaskForce/CaliforniaDrought.aspx
  28. ↑ Williams,, A. Park; et al. (2015). "Contribution of anthropogenic warming to California drought during 2012-2014". Geophysical Research Letters. doi:10.1002/2015GL064924.
  29. ↑ "California drought: no relief in sight, Drinking water and farming are at risk from state's ongoing drought, but forecasts offer little hope". The Guardian. UK. February 3, 2014. Retrieved July 17, 2014.
  30. ↑ Drought Stressing California’s Plantscape, Earth Observatory, NASA, February 2014
  31. ↑ "California governor orders mandatory water restrictions amid drought". FOX News, Associated Press. April 1, 2015. Retrieved April 1, 2015.
  32. ↑ http://www.ipcc.ch/publications_and_data/publications_ipcc_fourth_assessment_report_wg1_report_the_physical_science_basis.htm
  33. ↑ Basu, R., and B. D. Ostro. 2008. “A Multicounty Analysis Identifying the Populations Vulnerable to Mortality Associated with High Ambient Temperature in California.” Am J Epidemiol 168(6):632–637
  34. ↑ Knowlton, K., M. Rotkin-Ellman, G. King, H. G. Margolis, D. Smith, G. Solomon, R. Trent, and P. English. 2009. The 2006 California Heat Wave: Impacts on Hospitalizations and Emergency Department Visits. Environ Health Perspect 117(1): 61–67
  35. ↑ "Archived copy" (PDF). Archived from the original (PDF) on July 25, 2009. Retrieved 2009-07-25.
  36. ↑ Public health-related impacts of climate change in California. California Energy Commission "Archived copy" (PDF). Archived from the original (PDF) on July 25, 2009. Retrieved 2009-07-25.
  37. 1 2 Climate Change in California: Health, Economic and Equity Impacts. Redefining Progress: Oakland, California http://rprogress.org/publications/2006/CARB_ES_0106.pdf
  38. ↑ ALA (American Lung Association). 2008. State of the Air: 2008. American Lung Association: New York.
  39. ↑ CARB (California Air Resources Board). Methodology for Estimating Premature Deaths Associated with Long-term Exposure to Fine Airborne Particulate Matter in California) http://www.arb.ca.gov/research/health/pm-mort/pm-mortdraft.pdf
  40. ↑ On the causal link between carbon dioxide and air pollution mortality https://web.stanford.edu/group/efmh/jacobson/Articles/V/2007GL031101.pdf
  41. ↑ Boosting the Benefits: Improving air quality and health by reducing global warming pollution in California http://www.nrdc.org/globalwarming/boosting/boosting.pdf
  42. ↑ The Cost of Climate Change: What We'll Pay if Global Warming Continues Unchecked. NRDC: New York, New York http://www.nrdc.org/globalwarming/cost/cost.pdf
  43. ↑ “Effect of Climate Change on Field Crop Production in the Central Valley of California http://www.energy.ca.gov/2009publications/CEC-500-2009-041/CEC-500-2009-041-D.PDF
  44. ↑ California agriculture statistical review. Sacramento, California. California Agriculture Statistics Service
  45. ↑ Climate Change 2001: Impacts, Adaptation, and Vulnerability http://www.grida.no/publications/other/ipcc_tar/?src=/climate/ipcc_tar/wg2/
  46. ↑ Emissions pathways, climate change, and impacts on California http://www.pnas.org/content/101/34/12422.full

Further reading

Legislation
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