Eurasia Group

Eurasia Group
Corporation
Industry Consulting
Professional Services
Founded 1998
Headquarters New York City, United States
Number of locations
 Offices in Washington, D.C., London, Stamford, CT, San Francisco, Sao Paulo, and Tokyo
Key people
 Ian Bremmer, Founder, President
Robert Johnston, CEO
Cliff Kupchan, Chairman
Chris Garman, Head of Research
Callum Henderson, Head of Global Markets Research
Cara Sviokla, CFO
Sean West, Deputy CEO
Kevin Rudd, Senior Advisor
Products Professional services
Revenue Undisclosed (~$75-100m est)
Number of employees
 150 full-time / 500 part-time
Website www.eurasiagroup.net

Eurasia Group is the world's largest political risk consultancy. Founded in 1998 by Ian Bremmer, it has offices in New York City, Washington, D.C., London, Tokyo, São Paulo, San Francisco, and Singapore with more than 150 full-time employees.[1][2] The company also employs a network of 500 experts in 90 countries in Asia, Latin America, Europe, the Middle East and Africa — a profile The Economist magazine calls "an inspiration for any academic with a seemingly useless degree in political science".[3]

This approach includes the Eurasia Group Global Political Risk Index (GPRI), which is the first qualitative comparative political and economic risk index designed specifically to measure stability in emerging markets. Developed over a ten-year period by experts in transitional politics and economics, the methodology provides an "early warning" system which helps anticipate critical trends and provides a measure for country capacity to withstand political, economic, security, and social shocks.[4] Eurasia Group services include analytic research publications, tailored consulting and advisory services, as well as direct access to Eurasia Group analysts who analyse and evaluate political trends and their impact on business, financial markets and the foreign investment climate. Eurasia Group's clients include major investment banks, institutional investors, government agencies, and multinational corporations in numerous sectors.

Top 10 Risks

Eurasia Group's New York City headquarters
Eurasia Group's Washington, D.C. office lobby

In January every year, Eurasia Group announces the Top 10 Risks for the coming year, along with notable red herrings (issues of general concern it does not think are substantial risks).[5] Eurasia Group keeps the Top 10 Risks posted on its website for the remainder of the year.

In January 2011, Eurasia Group's top risk was the G-Zero world, where "the world's major powers set aside aspirations for global leadership—alone, coordinated, or otherwise—and look primarily inward for their policy priorities. Key institutions that provide global governance become arenas not for collaboration but for confrontation".[6] In a G-Zero world, "The U.S. lacks the resources to continue as primary provider of public goods, and rising powers are too preoccupied with problems at home to welcome the burdens that come with international leadership."[7]

In January 2012, Eurasia Group announced that the "end of the 911 era" was its top risk for the year. The report described a "world where politics and economics overlap almost entirely", and where investors will become increasingly risk-averse and the baseline of risk becomes exaggerated. Other top 10 risks included (in order): "G-Zero and the Middle East," "Eurozone," "US, "North Korea, "Pakistan," "China," "Egypt," "South Africa," and "Venezuela."[8]

In January 2013, Eurasia Group announced that "the era of emerging market abundance is finished", and listed volatility in emerging markets as the year's top risk. The report breaks down emerging markets into those "becoming developed", "still emerging--and problematically so", and "backsliding", and outlined the downside risk of markets in each category. Also listed in the report as top risks were (in order) "China v. information", "Arab summer", "Washington Politics", "JIBs - Japan, Israel and Britain", "Europe", "East Asian geopolitics", "Iran", "India", and "South Africa."[9]

In 2014, the Top Risk was "America's troubled alliances", stating that: "Washington's second-tier allies will begin to shift their international orientation in response to a weakening US foreign policy." [10]

In 2015, the Top Risk was "The Politics of Europe". The report stated, "Europe's economics are in substantially better shape than at the height of the Eurozone crisis, but the politics is now much worse...That's true on three different levels: bottom-up, intra-EU, and outside-in."[11]

In 2016, Eurasia Group's Top Risk was "the hollow alliance", referring to the trans-Atlantic partnership. They wrote, "the world’s most important alliance for nearly seventy years...it’s now weaker, and less relevant, than at any point in decades".[12]

The trend toward a world without a global leader will continue in 2017 according to Eurasia Group's forecast for the year. They deem it "a period of geopolitical recession". The continued "populist revolt" against globalism is evidenced by the United Kingdom's departure from the EU (Brexit) and the collapse of the Trans-Pacific Partnership among other events of 2016.[13]

Partnerships

Eurasia Group ringing the opening bell at the New York Stock Exchange

Eurasia Group announced a partnership with Nikko Asset Management in 2015 to incorporate political risk analysis into emerging market investment funds. According to The Wall Street Journal, "this is the first such partnership between the consultancy and an asset manager".[14]

Announcing a partnership with NYSE Euronext, Eurasia Group rang the opening bell at the New York Stock Exchange on March 18, 2009.[15]

Acquisitions

In March 2007, Eurasia Group acquired the assets of Intellibridge, a Washington, D.C.-based strategic advisory firm founded by former-National Security Advisor Anthony Lake and David Rothkopf.[16] Terms of the acquisition were not made public, though Intellibridge had received some $28 million in capital since being founded in 1999.

Advisors

In December 2014, Kevin Rudd, former prime minister of Australia, joined Eurasia Group as a senior advisor.[17] Other senior advisors include former Foreign Affairs Minister of Canada, John Baird;[18] cyber and innovation expert Alec Ross;[19] and former Prime Minister of Italy Enrico Letta.[20] Carter Page worked for the firm in 1998.

Eurasia Group has a separate Advisory Board, whose members are heads of industry and finance, many with previous government experience.[21] Notable members include internet visionary Vint Cerf, hedge fund billionaire Kenneth Griffin, Wall Street banker Sallie Krawcheck, former Undersecretary of State Thomas Pickering, and Nikko Asset Management Chairman Takumi Shibata.

Similar companies

References

  1. ↑ 2020 Visionaries
  2. ↑ Here's How the World Works
  3. ↑ Political-risk analysis: The new bull market Economist.com
  4. ↑ Assessing the Predictive Powers of Country Risk Ratings and Governance Indicators
  5. ↑ Eurasia Group's President Ian Bremmer and Head of Research David Gordon announce Top Risks and Red Herrings for 2010
  6. ↑ Eurasia Group Top 10 Risks 2011
  7. ↑ Eurasia Group warns of global tension in 'era of G-Zero'
  8. ↑ Eurasia Group Top 10 Risks 2013 Eurasia Group Top 10 Risks 2012
  9. ↑ Eurasia Group Top 10 Risks 2013
  10. ↑ "Eurasia Group". eurasiagroup.net. Retrieved 2016-05-06.
  11. ↑ 2020 Visionaries
  12. ↑ http://www.eurasiagroup.net/pages/top-risks-2016
  13. ↑ "Top Risks 2017: The Geopolitical Recession". eurasiagroup.com. Eurasia Group. Retrieved March 25, 2017.
  14. ↑ Japan’s Nikko Asset Adds Political-Risk Analysis With Eurasia Deal
  15. ↑ Eurasia Group rings opening bell at the NYSE
  16. ↑ Eurasia Group establishes Washington, D.C. Office; Acquires Assets of Intellibridge Corporation
  17. ↑
  18. ↑ "Eurasia Group". eurasiagroup.net. Retrieved 2016-05-06.
  19. ↑ "Eurasia Group". eurasiagroup.net. Retrieved 2016-05-06.
  20. ↑ "Eurasia Group". eurasiagroup.net. Retrieved 2016-05-06.
  21. ↑ Eurasia Group – Who We Are

Coordinates: 40°45′9″N 73°58′53″W / 40.75250°N 73.98139°W / 40.75250; -73.98139

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