Valencian regional election, 2015

Valencian regional election, 2015
Valencian Community
24 May 2015
All 99 seats in the Corts Valencianes
50 seats needed for a majority
Opinion polls
Registered 3,609,265 1.7%
Turnout 2,510,459 (69.6%)
0.6 pp

  First party Second party Third party
 
Leader Alberto Fabra Ximo Puig Mònica Oltra
Party PP PSPV–PSOE Compromís
Leader since 28 July 2011 31 March 2012 31 January 2015
Leader's seat Valencia Castellón Valencia
Last election 55 seats, 49.4% 33 seats, 28.0% 6 seats, 7.2%
Seats won 31 23 19
Seat change 24 10 13
Popular vote 658,612 509,098 456,823
Percentage 26.6% 20.6% 18.5%
Swing 22.8 pp 7.4 pp 11.3 pp
  Fourth party Fifth party Sixth party
 
Leader Carolina Punset Antonio Montiel Ignacio Blanco
Party C's Podemos/Podem AC
Leader since 2 February 2015 14 February 2015 8 November 2014
Leader's seat Valencia Valencia Valencia (lost)
Last election Did not contest Did not contest 5 seats, 7.6%
Seats won 13 13 0
Seat change 13 13 5
Popular vote 309,121 282,389 106,917
Percentage 12.5% 11.4% 4.3%
Swing New party New party 3.3 pp

Constituency results map for the Corts Valencianes
President before election

Alberto Fabra
PP

 Elected President

Ximo Puig
PSPV–PSOE

The 2015 Valencian regional election was held on Sunday, 24 May 2015, to elect the 9th Corts of the Valencian Community. All 99 seats in the Corts were up for election. The election was held simultaneously with regional elections in 12 other autonomous communities and local elections all throughout Spain.

While incumbent President Alberto Fabra's People's Party (PP) remained as the party with the most votes, it lost 24 seats and 22 percentage points compared to its 2011 result, and lost the absolute majority it had held in the Corts since 1999. This result was attributed to the party's management of the economic crisis, as well as the various corruption scandals that affected the PP throughout the entire 2011–2015 period, some of which were unveiled just weeks before the election. The Socialist Party of the Valencian Country (PSPV–PSOE) came second, with 23 seats, 10 fewer than in 2011 and the worst electoral result in its history.

Three other parties achieved representation, of which two were newly formed since 2011: Compromís, with 19 seats, Podemos and C's. EUPV, the main party in a coalition of other forces known as Acord Ciutadà (Valencian for "Citizen Agreement"), did not reach the 5% minimum threshold to achieve representation and therefore lost all of its seats in the Corts. Turnout was, at 69.6%, the lowest since 1999. Subsequently Alberto Fabra announced he would retire from his party's leadership in the region after a PSPV–Compromís coalition with Podemos' support expelled the PP from the regional government after 20 years in power. Ximo Puig from the PSPV–PSOE was elected as new regional President.

Electoral system

The 99 members of the Corts Valencianes were elected using the D'Hondt method and a closed list proportional representation, with a threshold of 5 per 100 of valid votes—which included blank ballots—being applied regionally. Parties not reaching the threshold were not taken into consideration for seat distribution. Seats were allocated to constituencies, corresponding to the provinces of Alicante, Castellón and Valencia. Each constituency was entitled to an initial minimum of 20 seats, with the remaining 39 allocated among the constituencies in proportion to their populations.[1][2] Voting was on the basis of universal suffrage, with all nationals over eighteen, registered in the Valencian Community and in full enjoyment of all political rights entitled to vote. Additionally, Valencians abroad were required to apply for voting before being permitted to vote, a system known as "begged" or expat vote (Spanish: Voto rogado).[3]

The electoral law provided that parties, federations, coalitions and groupings of electors were allowed to present lists of candidates. However, groupings of electors were required to secure at least the signature of 1 per 100 of the electors entered in electoral register of the constituency for which they were seeking election. Electors were barred from signing for more than one list of candidates. Concurrently, parties and federations intending to enter in coalition to take part jointly at an election were required to inform the relevant Electoral Commission within ten days from the election call.[1][4][5]

Elections could be held up to 30 days from the legislature's expiry date, which would take place four years after the previous election.[n 1] The President of the Generalitat Valenciana had the prerogative to dissolve the Corts and call a snap election, provided that no motion of no confidence was in process. Additionally, the chamber was to be automatically dissolved and a new election called if an investiture process failed to elect a regional President within a two-month period from the first ballot.[2][4]

Background

The 2011 regional election had resulted in the People's Party increasing its absolute majority despite losing votes, thanks to the collapse of the Socialist Party of the Valencian Country vote, which scored its worst historical result up to that point. However, after 16 years of uninterrupted rule, corruption scandals involving the PP began to erupt. Two months after the election, President Francisco Camps resigned because of his alleged implication in the Gürtel case,[6] being replaced as President of the Generalitat Valenciana by Alberto Fabra.[7] The following years saw the unveiling of a series of corruption scandals that rocked the PP, involving party MPs,[8] mayors,[9] local councillors,[10] regional councillors,[11] Courts' speakers[12] and former regional president José Luis Olivas.[13] At one point, up to 20% of the party MPs in the Corts Valencianes (11 out of 55) were charged in different corruption cases; a joke popularized at the time said that they would become the third political force in the Corts Valencianes, only behind PP and PSOE, if they were to form their own parliamentary group.[14] The regional party leadership also had to cope with accusations of illegal financing[15] as well as possible embezzlement in the additional costs incurred in the Formula 1 project and Pope Benedict XVI's 2006 visit to Valencia.[16][17]

At the same time, the regional government had to deal with the effects of the ongoing financial crisis. Despite the community's decision to ask for a bailout from the central government headed by Mariano Rajoy in July 2012,[18] its economic situation remained severe. Fabra's government had to close down RTVV, the regional public television broadcasting channel, because of financing issues; a decision which was met with widespread protest.[19][20]

The 2014 European Parliament election resulted in enormous losses for the People's Party, which, in the largest Valencian cities, lost almost half of its votes in percentage terms compared to the previous elections. Both the economic crisis and corruption helped hasten the party's decline, which had already seen support drop in opinion polls since 2011. The Spanish Socialist Workers' Party found itself unable to gain any of the PP's lost support and lost votes too, to the benefit of until then minority parties such as United Left, Union, Progress and Democracy, Citizens or the newly created Podemos party.[21]

Opinion polls

Vote estimations

Poll results are listed in the tables below in reverse chronological order, showing the most recent first, and using the date the survey's fieldwork was done, as opposed to the date of publication. If that date is unknown, the date of publication is given instead but not indicated as a publication date rather than an end of sampling date.

The highest percentage figure in each polling survey is displayed in bold, and the background shaded in the leading party's primary colour. In the instance that there is a tie, then no figure is shaded. The lead column on the right shows the percentage-point difference between the two parties with the highest figures. When a specific poll does not show a data figure for a party, the party's cell corresponding to that poll is shown empty.

Color key:

  Exit poll

Parliamentary seat projections

Opinion polls showing seat projections are displayed in the table below. The highest seat figures in each polling survey have their background shaded in the leading party's colour. In the instance that there is a tie, then no figure is shaded. 50 seats were required for an absolute majority in the Corts Valencianes.

Color key:

  Exit poll

Results

Overall

← Summary of the 24 May 2015 Corts Valencianes election results →
Parties and coalitions Popular vote Seats
Votes % ±pp Won +/−
People's Party (PP) 658,612 26.61 –22.81 31 –24
Socialist Party of the Valencian Country (PSPV–PSOE) 509,098 20.57 –7.47 23 –10
Commitment Coalition (Compromís) 456,823 18.46 +11.27 19 +13
Citizens–Party of the Citizenry (C's) 309,121 12.49 New 13 +13
We Can (Podemos/Podem) 282,389 11.41 New 13 +13
Citizen Agreement (EUPV–EV–ERPV–AS)1 106,917 4.32 –3.33 0 –5
Union, Progress and Democracy (UPyD) 28,754 1.16 –1.32 0 ±0
Blank ballots 34,083 1.38 –1.10
Total 2,475,258 100.00 99 ±0
Valid votes 2,475,258 98.60 +0.23
Invalid votes 35,201 1.40 –0.23
Votes cast / turnout 2,510,459 69.56 –0.63
Abstentions 1,098,806 30.44 +0.63
Registered voters 3,609,265
Source: Corts Valencianes, historiaelectoral.com, Argos Information Portal
Popular vote
PP
  
 26.61%
PSPV–PSOE
  
 20.57%
Compromís
  
 18.46%
C's
  
 12.49%
Podemos/Podem
  
 11.41%
Acord Ciutadà
  
 4.32%
UPyD
  
 1.16%
Others
  
 3.61%
Blank ballots
  
 1.38%
Seats
PP
  
 31.31%
PSPV–PSOE
  
 23.23%
Compromís
  
 19.19%
C's
  
 13.13%
Podemos/Podem
  
 13.13%

Distribution by constituency

Constituency PP PSPV Compromís C's Podemos
% S % S % S % S % S
Alicante 27.7 11 22.7 9 12.5 5 14.1 5 12.2 5
Castellón 29.5 8 24.0 6 14.3 4 11.1 3 11.6 3
Valencia 25.3 12 18.6 8 22.9 10 11.8 5 10.9 5
Total 26.6 31 20.6 23 18.5 19 12.5 13 11.4 13

Aftermath

Investiture vote

First round: 25 June 2015
Absolute majority (50/99) required
Candidate: Ximo Puig
Choice Vote
Parties Votes
YesYes PSPV (23), Compromís (19), Podemos (8)
50 / 99
No PP (31), C's (13)
44 / 99
Abstentions Podemos (5)
5 / 99
Source: historiaelectoral.com

Notes

  1. ↑ As per Article 42 of the General Electoral System Law of 1985, the election Decree was to be issued on the twenty-fifth day prior to the date of expiry of the Corts and published on the following day in the Official Journal of the Valencian Community, with election day being held on the fifty-fourth day from publication. As a result, an election could not be held later than the thirtieth day from the date of expiry of the Corts.
  1. ↑ This survey shows its poll results projected over candidacy votes (that is, votes going for political parties, excluding blank ballots). The vote percentage in the official election is calculated including blank ballots into the estimation. In order to obtain data comparable to both the official results as well as those of other surveys, a rule of three has been applied to the survey projections, with the results of the calculation being shown instead.

References

  1. 1 2 Valencian Electoral Law of 1987, Law No. 2 of March 31, 1987 Official Journal of the Valencian Community (in Spanish). Retrieved on 17 March 2017.
  2. 1 2 Statute of Autonomy of the Valencian Community of 1982, Organic Law No. 1 of July 1, 1982 Official State Gazette (in Spanish). Retrieved on 17 March 2017.
  3. ↑ Reig Pellicer, Naiara (16 December 2015). "Spanish elections: Begging for the right to vote". cafebabel.co.uk. Retrieved 17 July 2017.
  4. 1 2 General Electoral System Organic Law of 1985, Organic Law No. 5 of June 19, 1985 Official State Gazette (in Spanish). Retrieved on 28 December 2016.
  5. ↑ "Representation of the people Institutional Act". juntaelectoralcentral.es. Central Electoral Commission. Retrieved 16 June 2017.
  6. ↑ "Francisco Camps resigns" (in Spanish). El Mundo. 2011-07-21.
  7. ↑ "Alberto Fabra replaces Camps at the head of the PP and the Generalitat" (in Spanish). El País. 2011-07-21.
  8. ↑ "The presence of 20% of accused MPs divides the Valencian PP" (in Spanish). El País. 2013-06-29.
  9. ↑ "Judge charges Castedo again for benefitting the constructor Ortiz" (in Spanish). El Mundo. 2014-09-19.
  10. ↑ "The PP has fifty defendants in municipal offices" (in Spanish). El País. 2015-01-10.
  11. ↑ "Valencian councillor resigns after being accused of leaking a secret report" (in Spanish). Cadena SER. 2012-11-30.
  12. ↑ "Juan Cotino, accused for the contracts with Gürtel during the Pope's visit" (in Spanish). El Mundo. 2014-11-10.
  13. ↑ "Olivas, imputed for tax fraud in the advising of Vicente Cotino" (in Spanish). El Mundo. 2014-06-02.
  14. ↑ "Those charged within the Valencian PP would become the third political force in the Courts" (in Spanish). Hoy. 2013-06-09.
  15. ↑ "The Judge processes 19 people for the illegal financing of the Valencian PP" (in Spanish). El País. 2014-12-16.
  16. ↑ "The corruption in the Valencian PP, from A to Z" (in Spanish). El Diario. 2014-08-11.
  17. ↑ "The Valencian bonfire of PP corruption" (in Spanish). El País. 2014-11-16.
  18. ↑ "The Valencian Community asks for a bailout" (in Spanish). Público. 2012-07-20.
  19. ↑ "Fabra closes down the Valencian television after Justice's overthrowing of the ERE" (in Spanish). El Mundo. 2013-11-05.
  20. ↑ "Protests for the closing down of Channel 9 encircle Fabra and isolate the PP" (in Spanish). El Diario. 2013-12-04.
  21. ↑ "The PP vote collapses in the largest cities and gives the key to minority parties" (in Spanish). El País. 2014-05-06.
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