Constituency NA-54

Constituency NA-54 (Rawalpindi-V)
Constituency
for the National Assembly of Pakistan
Region Rawalpindi District
Current constituency

Constituency NA-54 (Rawalpindi-V) (Urdu: این اے-۵۴، راولپنڈی-۵) is a constituency for the National Assembly of Pakistan.

Members of Parliament

1977—2002: NA-40 (Rawalpindi-V)

ElectionMemberParty
1977 Abdul Qayyum Butt PPP
1985 Chaudhry Nisar Ali Khan Independent
1988 Chaudhry Nisar Ali Khan IJI
1990 Chaudhry Nisar Ali Khan IJI
1993 Chaudhry Nisar Ali Khan PML-N
1997 Chaudhry Nisar Ali Khan PML-N

Since 2002: NA-54 (Rawalpindi-V)

ElectionMemberParty
2002 Zamurd Khan PPPP
2008 Malik Ibrar Ahmed PML-N
2013 Malik Ibrar Ahmed PML-N

Initially a bastion of the left-wing Pakistan Peoples Party (PPP) in the 1970 and 1977 elections, the constituency of Rawalpindi-V has seen a strong shift towards the conservative center-right parties since Zia's Islamist regime.

Candidates associated with Pakistan Muslim League (N) (formally IJI) have performed considerably well in the general elections from this constituency. Since the 1988 elections, the party's candidates have won the constituency 6 times out of 7 times, with left-wing PPP only making winning inroads in the 2002 elections. This includes the 1988-1997 unbeaten streak of Nisar Ali Khan, who has never lost in this constituency. However, since the constituency delimitation in 2002, Nisar's traditional votebank has shifted into the predominately rural NA-52, where he continues to dominate. While the NA-54 has become a majorly urban constituency having votebanks for all major political parties.[1]

However, since the reentering of the democratic socialist Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf into the fold of national politics in the 2013 elections, there has been a marked shift in the choices of the constituency's voters with the party becoming a second major force in the area after PML-N.[2]

Voting Patterns

The voting pattern in NA-54 shows a division of votes between two parties/candidates, with other candidates playing a minor role in the elections. In 2002, the top two contenders received 72% of the polls votes, with the winner securing the seat following a close competition with the runner-up. The winner's share increased sharply in 2008 when the top two contenders received 88% of the polled votes. According to the results, the winner secured the seat with a margin of 23.4% votes, showing a clear dominance in the elections. The polls in 2013 also witnessed a close race between the top two candidates who secured 87% of the polled votes. Historical data shows that the second runner-up's share has decreased consistently over the years, indicating a clear two-party race in the constituency. Given the consistent voting pattern, the next polls may witness a similar trend. However, the decrease in the winner's share and the close race in 2013 suggest that an alliance between the runners-up may yield different results in upcoming elections.[3]

Detailed Results

The following tables show election-wise metrics of the Rawalpindi-V constituency. Only top four candidates with more than 1000 votes are included. Where a fourth contestant with more than 1000 votes is not there, only three are included. All the data has been tabulated from Election Commission of Pakistan's official documents. The common source for election results from 1988 - 1997 is General Elections 1988-1997 .

Election 1988

General election 1988: NA-40 (Rawalpindi-V)
Party Candidate Votes % ±
IJI Chaudhry Nisar Ali Khan 64,186 48.8 -
PPP Habib Khan 57,878 44.0 -
PAT Muhammad Akram Shah 8,669 6.6 -
Turnout 131,432 59.99 -

As Pakistan Awami Ittehad.

Election 1990

General election 1990: NA-40 (Rawalpindi-V)
Party Candidate Votes % ±
IJI Chaudhry Nisar Ali Khan 78,530 55.5 Increase6.7
PPP Ghulam Sarwar Khan 63,021 44.5 Increase0.5
Turnout 141,551 62.59 Increase2.60

As People's Democratic Alliance.

Election 1993

General election 1993: NA-40 (Rawalpindi-V)
Party Candidate Votes % ±
PML (N) Chaudhry Nisar Ali Khan 76,288 51.6 Decrease3.9
PPP Ghulam Sarwar Khan 64,800 43.8 Decrease0.7
JI Dr. Muhammad Kamal 6,898 4.7 Increase4.7
Turnout 147,986 60.65 Decrease1.94

The Islami Jamhoori Ittehad was dissolved prior to the 1993 general elections, as JUI-F, JUI-S and JI parted ways from the alliance. Subsequently, the core of the party, Muslim league - Nawaz, contested elections for the first time as Pakistan Muslim League (N).

As Pakistan Islamic Front.

Election 1997

General election 1997: NA-40 (Rawalpindi-V)
Party Candidate Votes % ±
PML (N) Chaudhry Nisar Ali Khan 64,186 51.3 Decrease0.3
PPP Ghulam Sarwar Khan 57,878 46.3 Increase2.5
PTI Chaudhry Ghulam Jillani 3,588 2.3 Increase2.3
MQM Dr. Abdul Qadir Khan 1,243 1.0 Increase1.0
Turnout 125,094 48.52 Decrease12.13

As Haq Parast Group.

Election 2002

General elections were held on 10 Oct 2002. Zamurd Khan of PPP won by 31,491 votes.[4]

General election 2002: NA-54 (Rawalpindi-V)
Party Candidate Votes % ±
PPP Zamurd Khan 31,491 38.3 Decrease6
PML (N) Raja Zafar-ul-Haq 28,805 35.0 Decrease16.1
MMA Shaukat Aziz Siddiqui 12,676 15.4 Increase15.4
PML (Zia) Muhammad Ijaz-ul-Haq 4,164 5.0 Increase5.0
Turnout 82,292 39.97 Decrease8.55

Election 2008

Malik Abrar Ahmad of Pakistan Muslim League (N) succeeded in the election 2008 and became the member of National Assembly. The 2008 elections also saw the lowest turnout in the history of this constituency - at just 38.5%.[5]

General election 2008: NA-54 (Rawalpindi-V)
Party Candidate Votes % ±
PML (N) Malik Abrar Ahmad 58,228 55.7 Increase20.7
PPP Zamurd Khan 33,749 32.3 Decrease6.0
PML (Q) Muhammad Basharat Raja 10,400 10.0 Increase8.0
Turnout 104,501 38.50 Decrease1.47

PML-Q's Allama Ayaz Zahir Hashmi competed in the 2002 elections and got 1,640 votes.

Election 2013

General elections were held on 11 May 2013. A total of 166,523 votes were cast of which 165,049 were deemed valid. The overall turnout of the constituency was 55.36%.[6] Malik Abrar Ahmed of PML-N won by 7,649 votes and became the member of National Assembly.[7]

General election 2013: NA-54 (Rawalpindi-V)
Party Candidate Votes % ±
PML (N) Malik Abrar Ahmad 76,336 46.3 Decrease9.4
PTI Hina Manzoor 68,687 41.6 Increase41.6
PPP Zamurd Khan 13,185 8.0 Decrease24.3
JI Rizwan Ahmad 2,970 1.8 -
Turnout 165,049 55.36 Increase16.86

References

  1. "Constituency profile: Where biradaris trump ideology". The Express Tribune. Retrieved 11 May 2016.
  2. "NA-54 Detailed Result, GE 2013". ElectionPakistani.com.
  3. National Assembly Election Results Analysis Report. FAFEN. p. 238.
  4. "Pakistan GE Results 2002" (PDF). ECP.gov.pk. Election Commission of Pakistan.
  5. "Election result 2008 for NA-54". ECP. Retrieved May 11, 2016.
  6. "General Elections 2013 Results Portal". ECP.gov.pk. Election Commission of Pakistan. Archived from the original on 2016-06-19.
  7. http://www.na.gov.pk/en/profile.php?uid=724
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