Constituency NA-54

Constituency NA-54 (Rawalpindi-V) (Urdu: این اے-۵۴، راولپنڈی-۵‎) is a constituency for the National Assembly of Pakistan.

Members of Parliament

1977—2002: NA-40 (Rawalpindi-V)

Since 2002: NA-54 (Rawalpindi-V)

Party Trends

Initially a bastion of the left-wing Pakistan Peoples Party (PPP) in the 1970 and 1977 elections, the constituency of Rawalpindi-V has seen a strong shift towards the conservative center-right parties since Zia's Islamist regime.

Candidates associated with Pakistan Muslim League (N) (formally IJI) have performed considerably well in the general elections from this constituency. Since the 1988 elections, the party's candidates have won the constituency 6 times out of 7 times, with left-wing PPP only making winning inroads in the 2002 elections. This includes the 1988-1997 unbeaten streak of Nisar Ali Khan, who has never lost in this constituency. However, since the constituency delimitation in 2002, Nisar's traditional votebank has shifted into the predominately rural NA-52, where he continues to dominate. While the NA-54 has become a majorly urban constituency having votebanks for all major political parties.^[1]

However, since the reentering of the democratic socialist Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf into the fold of national politics in the 2013 elections, there has been a marked shift in the choices of the constituency's voters with the party becoming a second major force in the area after PML-N.^[2]

Voting Patterns

The voting pattern in NA-54 shows a division of votes between two parties/candidates, with other candidates playing a minor role in the elections. In 2002, the top two contenders received 72% of the polls votes, with the winner securing the seat following a close competition with the runner-up. The winner's share increased sharply in 2008 when the top two contenders received 88% of the polled votes. According to the results, the winner secured the seat with a margin of 23.4% votes, showing a clear dominance in the elections. The polls in 2013 also witnessed a close race between the top two candidates who secured 87% of the polled votes. Historical data shows that the second runner-up's share has decreased consistently over the years, indicating a clear two-party race in the constituency. Given the consistent voting pattern, the next polls may witness a similar trend. However, the decrease in the winner's share and the close race in 2013 suggest that an alliance between the runners-up may yield different results in upcoming elections.^[3]

Detailed Results

The following tables show election-wise metrics of the Rawalpindi-V constituency. Only top four candidates with more than 1000 votes are included. Where a fourth contestant with more than 1000 votes is not there, only three are included. All the data has been tabulated from Election Commission of Pakistan's official documents. The common source for election results from 1988 - 1997 is General Elections 1988-1997 .

Election 1988

^†As Pakistan Awami Ittehad.

Election 1990

General election 1990: NA-40 (Rawalpindi-V)

Party		Candidate	Votes	%	±
	IJI	Chaudhry Nisar Ali Khan	78,530	55.5	6.7
	PPP	Ghulam Sarwar Khan	63,021	44.5†	0.5
Turnout			141,551	62.59	2.60

^†As People's Democratic Alliance.

Election 1993

General election 1993: NA-40 (Rawalpindi-V)

Party		Candidate	Votes	%	±
	PML (N)	Chaudhry Nisar Ali Khan	76,288	51.6†	3.9
	PPP	Ghulam Sarwar Khan	64,800	43.8	0.7
	JI	Dr. Muhammad Kamal	6,898	4.7‡	4.7
Turnout			147,986	60.65	1.94

^† The Islami Jamhoori Ittehad was dissolved prior to the 1993 general elections, as JUI-F, JUI-S and JI parted ways from the alliance. Subsequently, the core of the party, Muslim league - Nawaz, contested elections for the first time as Pakistan Muslim League (N).

^‡As Pakistan Islamic Front.

Election 1997

General election 1997: NA-40 (Rawalpindi-V)

Party		Candidate	Votes	%	±
	PML (N)	Chaudhry Nisar Ali Khan	64,186	51.3	0.3
	PPP	Ghulam Sarwar Khan	57,878	46.3	2.5
	PTI	Chaudhry Ghulam Jillani	3,588	2.3	2.3
	MQM	Dr. Abdul Qadir Khan	1,243	1.0†	1.0
Turnout			125,094	48.52	12.13

^†As Haq Parast Group.

Election 2002

General elections were held on 10 Oct 2002. Zamurd Khan of PPP won by 31,491 votes.^[4]

General election 2002: NA-54 (Rawalpindi-V)

Party		Candidate	Votes	%	±
	PPP	Zamurd Khan	31,491	38.3	6
	PML (N)	Raja Zafar-ul-Haq	28,805	35.0	16.1
	MMA	Shaukat Aziz Siddiqui	12,676	15.4	15.4
	PML (Zia)	Muhammad Ijaz-ul-Haq	4,164	5.0	5.0
Turnout			82,292	39.97	8.55

Election 2008

Malik Abrar Ahmad of Pakistan Muslim League (N) succeeded in the election 2008 and became the member of National Assembly. The 2008 elections also saw the lowest turnout in the history of this constituency - at just 38.5%.^[5]

General election 2008: NA-54 (Rawalpindi-V)

Party		Candidate	Votes	%	±
	PML (N)	Malik Abrar Ahmad	58,228	55.7	20.7
	PPP	Zamurd Khan	33,749	32.3	6.0
	PML (Q)	Muhammad Basharat Raja	10,400	10.0	8.0†
Turnout			104,501	38.50	1.47

^†PML-Q's Allama Ayaz Zahir Hashmi competed in the 2002 elections and got 1,640 votes.

Election 2013

General elections were held on 11 May 2013. A total of 166,523 votes were cast of which 165,049 were deemed valid. The overall turnout of the constituency was 55.36%.^[6] Malik Abrar Ahmed of PML-N won by 7,649 votes and became the member of National Assembly.^[7]

General election 2013: NA-54 (Rawalpindi-V)

Party		Candidate	Votes	%	±
	PML (N)	Malik Abrar Ahmad	76,336	46.3	9.4
	PTI	Hina Manzoor	68,687	41.6	41.6
	PPP	Zamurd Khan	13,185	8.0	24.3
	JI	Rizwan Ahmad	2,970	1.8	-
Turnout			165,049	55.36	16.86

References

External links

• Election result's official website