Cold War II

Cold War II,[1][2] also called the New Cold War,[3][4] Second Cold War[5][6][7] and Cold War 2.0,[8][9] refers to a renewed state of political and military tension between opposing geopolitical power-blocs, with one bloc typically reported as being led by either Russia or China,[10] and the other led by the United States or NATO. This is akin to the original Cold War that saw a global confrontation between the Western Bloc led by the United States and the Eastern Bloc led by the Soviet Union, Russia's predecessor state. American political scientist Robert Legvold posits that the "new Cold War began the moment we went over the cliff, and that happened with the Ukraine crisis."[11][12] Others, such as Andrew C. Kuchins in 2016, believe that the term is "unsuited to the present conflict," but the situation is arguably more dangerous than during the original Cold War.[13] One of the primary features of the "New Cold War", as first defined by Philip N. Howard, is that conflict is experienced primarily over and through broadcast media, social media, and information infrastructure.[4]

Early usages

Past sources,[14][15] such as academics Fred Halliday,[16][17] Alan M. Wald,[18] and David S. Painter,[19] used the interchangeable terms to refer to the 1979–1985 and 1985–1991 phases of the Cold War.

EU and NATO members vs. Russia

Some sources use the term as a possible[20][21] or unlikely future event,[22][23] while others have used the term to describe ongoing renewed tensions, hostilities, and political rivalry that intensified dramatically in 2014 between the Russian Federation on the one hand, and the United States, NATO, European Union, and some other countries on the other.[24] Journalist Edward Lucas wrote the 2008 book The New Cold War: How the Kremlin Menaces both Russia and the West, claiming that the new Cold War between Russia and the West has begun.[25]

Michael Klare, a RealClearPolitics writer and an academic, in June 2013 compared tensions between Russia and the West to the ongoing proxy conflict between Saudi Arabia and Iran.[26] Oxford Professor Philip N. Howard argued that the new cold war has a distinct media dimension in that the battles are being fought over control of Russia's media broadcasters and through cyberwar between authoritarian governments and their own civil society groups.[4] While some notable figures such as Mikhail Gorbachev warned in 2014, against the backdrop of Russia–West political confrontation over the Ukrainian crisis,[27] that the world was on the brink of a New Cold War, or that a New Cold War was already occurring,[28] others argued that the term did not accurately describe the nature of relations between Russia and the West.[29] While the new tensions between Russia and the West have similarities with those during the original Cold War, there are also major dissimilarities such as modern Russia's increased economic ties with the outside world, which may potentially constrain Russia's actions[30] and provides it with new avenues for exerting influence, such as in Belarus and Central Asia, which have not brought on the type of direct military action in which Russia engaged in less cooperative former Soviet states like Ukraine or the Caucasus.[31] The term "Cold War II" has therefore been described as a misnomer.[32]

The term "Cold War II" gained currency and relevance as tensions between Russia and the West escalated throughout the 2014 pro-Russian unrest in Ukraine followed by the Russian military intervention and especially the downing of Malaysia Airlines Flight 17 in July 2014. By August 2014, both sides had implemented economic, financial, and diplomatic sanctions upon each other: virtually all Western countries, led by the US and EU, imposed restrictive measures on Russia; the latter reciprocally introduced retaliatory measures.[33][34]

Some observers − including Syrian President Bashar al-Assad[35] − judged the Syrian Civil War to be a proxy war between Russia and the US,[36][37] and even a "proto-world war".[38] In January 2016, senior UK government officials were reported to have registered their growing fears that "a new cold war" was now unfolding in Europe: "It really is a new Cold War out there. Right across the EU we are seeing alarming evidence of Russian efforts to unpick the fabric of European unity on a whole range of vital strategic issues.”[39]

Finnish President Sauli Niinistö in his August 2014 speech said, "We should also pay attention to those who warn against plunging into a new Cold War as a knee-jerk reaction, without consideration for what happens next."[40] A Helsinki Times columnist David J. Cord interpreted Niinistö's reference to a "new cold war" as an admittance to the "perilous situation."[41]

In an interview with the Time magazine in December 2014, Gorbachev said that the US under Obama was dragging Russia into a new Cold War.[42] In February 2016, at the Munich Security Conference, NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg said that NATO and Russia were "not in a cold-war situation but also not in the partnership that we established at the end of the Cold War,"[43] while Russian Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev, speaking of what he called NATO's "unfriendly and opaque" policy with regard to Russia, said: "One could go as far as to say that we have slid back to a new Cold War."[44] In October 2016 and March 2017, Stoltenberg repeatedly said to, respectively, BBC News[45] and then CBS News[46] that NATO would not seek "a new Cold War" or "a new arms race" with Russia.

In February 2016, a National Research University academic and Harvard University visiting scholar Yuval Weber wrote on E-International Relations that "the world is not entering Cold War II," asserting that the current tensions and ideologies of both sides are not similar to those of the original Cold War, that situations in Europe and the Middle East do not destabilize other areas geographically, and that Russia "is far more integrated with the outside world than the Soviet Union ever was."[47] In September 2016, when asked if he thought the world had entered a new cold war, Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov argued that current tensions were not comparable: he noted the lack of an ideological divide between the United States and Russia, said that conflicts were no longer viewed from the perspective of a bipolar international system.[48]

In October 2016, John Sawers, a former MI6 chief, told BBC Radio 4's Today programme that he thought the world was entering an era that was possibly "more dangerous" than the Cold War, as "we do not have that focus on a strategic relationship between Moscow and Washington.”[49] Similarly, Igor Zevelev, a fellow at the Wilson Center, said, "[I]t's not a Cold War [but] a much more dangerous and unpredictable situation."[50] CNN opined, "It's not a new Cold War. It's not even a deep chill. It's an outright conflict."[50]

In January 2017, a former government adviser Molly K. McKew said at Politico that the US would win the "new Cold War" if the War happens.[51] The New Republic editor Jeet Heer dismissed the possibility as "equally troubling[,] reckless threat inflation, wildly overstating the extent of Russian ambitions and power in support of a costly policy," and too centred on Russia while "ignoring the rise of powers like China and India." Heer also criticized McKew for supporting the possibility.[52] Jeremy Shapiro, a senior fellow in the Brookings Institution, wrote in his blog post at RealClearPolitics, referring to the US–Russia relations: "A drift into a new Cold War has seemed the inevitable result."[53]

United States vs. China

US politician Jed Babbin,[54] Yale University professor David Gelernter,[55] Firstpost editor R. Jagannathan,[56] Subhash Kapila of the South Asia Analysis Group,[57] and some other analysts[58] use the term to refer to tensions between the United States and China.

Financial Times also speculated the new Cold War between the two nations by citing the increased Chinese military activity in the South China Sea.[59] Chinese media speculated a new Cold War by citing events occurred in July 2016, like the US deployment of the Terminal High Altitude Area Defence (THAAD) in South Korea and The Hague-based arbitrary tribunal ruling against China's favor on the South China Sea dispute.[60]

Other analysts, including ones interviewed by The Straits Times, rejected the "new Cold War" reference to the US–China relations, mostly "citing obstacles such as a lingering distrust between [China, Russia, and North Korea]."[60] Nevertheless, the analysts suggested US and China to ease tensions between the two countries. Jin Canrong (金灿荣) from Renmin University said, "China remains committed to building a new type of major-power relationship with the US that avoids conflict and focuses on cooperation."[60] Wang Dong from Peking University dismissed the "new Cold War" talks as "media sensationalism" and further told the newspaper his reasons to reject the claim: "[F]or one thing, the two are highly interdependent, economically and socially, and, for another, the cost of rushing into a new Cold War for nuclear powers like China and the US is prohibitively high."[60] Chen Jian from Cornell University said, "A new Cold War is not going to happen if neither side makes serious mistakes, including mistakes related to misperceptions of a new Cold War."[60]

Besides the South China Sea dispute, South China Morning Post columnist Shi Jiangtao said in January 2017 that some other experts cited trade relations between the US and China, the Taiwan situation, and the China–North Korea relations as possible emergence "of a new cold war" between the US and China.[61]

Donald Trump, who was inaugurated the US president on 20 January 2017, has stated he considers China a threat, increasing speculation talks of the possibility that would affect the relations.[62][63][64] A Claremont McKenna College professor Minxin Pei said that Trump's election win and "ascent to the presidency" may increase chances of the possibility.[65] In March 2017, a self-declared socialist magazine Monthly Review said, "With the rise of the Trump administration, the new Cold War with Russia has been put on hold," and also said that the Trump administration has planned to shift from Russia to China as its main competitor.[66]

Also, in March 2017, after recent developments of THAAD, a Dongguk University professor Kim Yong-hyuk said, "A new Cold War would be an exaggeration, but it is apparent that China is trying to draw its two Cold War allies [Russia and North Korea] to its side at least over THAAD-related issues[.] It will also highlight the alliance between South Korea and the US as well as their ties with Japan as part of tactics against THAAD."[67]

See also

References

  1. ↑ Dmitri Trenin (4 March 2014). "Welcome to Cold War II". Foreign Policy. Graham Holdings. Retrieved 4 February 2015.
  2. ↑ As Cold War II Looms, Washington Courts Nationalist, Rightwing, Catholic, Xenophobic Poland, Huffington Post, 15 October 2015.
  3. ↑ Simon Tisdall (19 November 2014). "The new cold war: are we going back to the bad old days?". The Guardian. Guardian News and Media Limited. Retrieved 4 February 2015.
  4. 1 2 3 Philip N. Howard (1 August 2012). "Social media and the new Cold War". Reuters. Reuters Commentary Wire. Retrieved 2 August 2016.
  5. ↑ Mackenzie, Ryan (3 October 2015). "Rubio: U.S. 'barreling toward a second Cold War'". The Des Moines Register. USA Today. Retrieved 28 January 2016.
  6. ↑ Bovt, George (31 March 2015). "Who Will Win the New Cold War?". The Moscow Times. Retrieved 28 January 2016.
  7. ↑ Trenin, Dmitri (2 March 2014). "The crisis in Crimea could lead the world into a second cold war". The Guardian. Retrieved 28 January 2016.
  8. ↑ "Cold war 2.0: how Russia and the west reheated a historic struggle". The Guardian. 28 October 2016. Retrieved 24 October 2016.
  9. ↑ Eve Conant (12 September 2014). "Is the Cold War Back?". National Geographic. National Geographic Society. Retrieved 4 February 2015.
  10. ↑ Powell, Bill. "A New Cold War, Yes. But It's With China, Not Russia". Newsweek.com. Newsweek. Retrieved 16 April 2016.
  11. ↑ Robert Legvold on the New Cold War, Interview with Columbia University Professor and Leading Russia Scholar 10 November 2015.
  12. ↑ Robert Legvold, Return to Cold War. Cambridge: Polity, 2016
  13. ↑ Elevation and Calibration: A New Russia Policy for America: II. The Current Impasse: Not a New Cold War but Potentially More Dangerous, Center on Global Interests, December 2016, p. 9–12.
  14. ↑ Scott, David (2007). China Stands Up: The PRC and the International System. Routledge. pp. 79–81. ISBN 978-0415402705. LCCN 2006038771 – via Amazon.com.
  15. ↑ Christie, Daniel J.; Beverly G. Toomey (1990). "The Stress of Violence: School, Community, and World". In L. Eugene Arnold; Joseph D. Noshpitz. Childhood Stress. New York City: John Wiley & Sons. p. 305. ISBN 978-0471508687. Retrieved 20 January 2017 – via Google Books.
  16. ↑ Halliday, Fred (1989). "The Making of the Cold". The Making of the Second Cold War (2nd ed.). Verso Books. ISBN 978-0860911449. Retrieved January 20, 2017 – via Google Books.
  17. ↑ Edwards, Paul N. (1996). "Computers and Politics in Cold War II". The Closed World: Computers and the Politics of Discourse in Cold War America. Massachusetts Institute of Technology. p. 276. ISBN 9780262550284. Retrieved 20 January 2017 – via Google Books.
  18. ↑ Wald, Alan M. (1987). The New York Intellectuals: The Rise and Decline of the Anti-Stalinist Left From the 1930s to the 1980s. University of North Carolina Press. pp. 344, 347. ISBN 978-0807841693. Retrieved 20 January 2017 – via Google Books.
  19. ↑ Painter, David S. (1999). "The Rise and Fall of the Second Cold War, 1981–91". The Cold War: An International History. Routledge. pp. 95–111. ISBN 0-415-19446-6 – via Google Books.
  20. ↑ Boris N. Mamlyuk (July 6, 2015). "The Ukraine Crisis, Cold War II, and International Law". The German Law Journal. SSRN 2627417 Freely accessible.
  21. ↑ Pavel Koshkin (25 April 2014). "What a new Cold War between Russia and the US means for the world".
  22. ↑ Rojansky & Salzman, Matthew & Rachel S (March 20, 2015). "Debunked: Why There Won't Be Another Cold War". The National Interest. The National Interest.
  23. ↑ Lawrence Solomon (9 October 2015). "Lawrence Solomon: Cold War II? Nyet".
  24. ↑ "Welcome to Cold War II". Foreign Policy. 4 March 2014. Retrieved 10 November 2014.
  25. ↑ Review of The New Cold War by Edward Lucas. BBC. 12 February 2008. Retrieved 11 June 2017.
  26. ↑ Klare, Michael (1 June 2013). "Welcome to Cold War II". Tom Dispatch. RealClearWorld. Retrieved 20 December 2016.
  27. ↑ Conant, Eve (12 September 2014). "Is the Cold War Back?". National Geographic. Retrieved 19 December 2014.
  28. ↑ Kendall, Bridget (12 November 2014). "Rhetoric hardens as fears mount of new Cold War". BBC News. Retrieved 20 December 2014.
  29. ↑ Bremmer, Ian (29 May 2014). "This Isn’t A Cold War. And That’s Not Necessarily Good". Time. Retrieved 19 December 2014.
  30. ↑ Stewart, James (7 March 2014). "Why Russia Can’t Afford Another Cold War". New York Times. Retrieved 3 January 2015.
  31. ↑ "Putin's 'Last and Best Weapon' Against Europe: Gas". 24 September 2014. Retrieved 3 January 2015.
  32. ↑ “The Cold War II: Just Another Misnomer?”, Contemporary Macedonian Defence, vol. 14. no. 26, June 2014, pp. 49-60
  33. ↑ "U.S. and other powers kick Russia out of G8". CNN.com. 25 March 2014. Retrieved 7 August 2014.
  34. ↑ Johanna Granville, "The Folly of Playing High-Stakes Poker with Putin: More to Lose than Gain over Ukraine." 8 May 2014.
  35. ↑ "'The Cold War never ended...Syria is a Russian-American conflict' says Bashar al-Assad". The Telegraph. Retrieved 24 January 2017.
  36. ↑ "U.S. Weaponry Is Turning Syria Into Proxy War With Russia". The New York Times. 12 October 2015. Retrieved 14 October 2015.
  37. ↑ "U.S., Russia escalate involvement in Syria". CNN. 13 October 2015. Retrieved 17 October 2015.
  38. ↑ "Untangling the Overlapping Conflicts in the Syrian War". The New York Times. 18 October 2015. Retrieved 19 October 2015.
  39. ↑ "Russia accused of clandestine funding of European parties as US conducts major review of Vladimir Putin's strategy / Exclusive: UK warns of "new Cold War" as Kremlin seeks to divide and rule in Europe". The Daily Telegraph. 16 January 2016. Retrieved 17 January 2016.
  40. ↑ Niinistö, Sauli (26 August 2014). (Speech)Office of the President of the Republic of Finland http://www.tpk.fi/public/default.aspx?contentid=311373. Retrieved 11 June 2017. Missing or empty |title= (help)
  41. ↑ Cord, David J. (28 August 2014). "Finland in Cold War II". Helsinki Times. Retrieved 11 June 2017.
  42. ↑ Shuster, Simon (11 December 2014). "Exclusive: Gorbachev Blames the U.S. for Provoking ‘New Cold War’". TIME.
  43. ↑ "Russian PM Medvedev says new cold war is on". BBC. Retrieved 13 February 2016.
  44. ↑ "Russian PM Medvedev equates relations with West to a 'new Cold War'". CNN. 13 February 2016. Retrieved 13 February 2016.
  45. ↑ "NATO chief says alliance 'does not want new Cold War'". BBC. 28 October 2016. Retrieved 12 April 2017.
  46. ↑ Palmer, Elizabeth (14 March 2017). "What our allies, and Putin, make of Trump's NATO ultimatum". CBS News. Retrieved 12 April 2017.
  47. ↑ Weber, Yuval (7 March 2016). "Are We in a Cold War or Not? 1989, 1991, and Great Power Dissatisfaction". E-International Relations. Retrieved 11 June 2017.
  48. ↑ Lavrov, Sergey (1 September 2016). "Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov’s remarks and answers to questions at a meeting with students and faculty at MGIMO University, Moscow, September 1, 2016". The Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the Russian Federation. Retrieved 8 September 2016.
  49. ↑ Osborne, Samuel (12 October 2016). "World entering era 'more dangerous than Cold War′ as Russian power grows, former MI6 boss warns". The Independent. Retrieved 28 October 2016.
  50. 1 2 Labott, Elise; Gaouette, Nicole (18 October 2016). "Russia, US move past Cold War to unpredictable confrontation". CNN. Retrieved 28 October 2016.
  51. ↑ McKew, Molly K. (1 January 2017). "Putin's Real Long Game". Politico. Retrieved 15 January 2017.
  52. ↑ Heer, Jeet (4 January 2017). "A 'New Cold War' Against Russia Is a Terrible Idea". The New Republic. Retrieved 15 January 2017.
  53. ↑ Shapiro, Jeremy (11 January 2017). "Reordering Europe?". RealClearWorld. Retrieved 15 January 2017.
  54. ↑ Babbin, Jed; Edward Timperlake (2006). "Chapter One: The Next War". Showdown: Why China Wants War With the United States. Regency Publishing. ISBN 978-1596980051.
  55. ↑ Gelernter, David (3 April 2009). "Welcome To Cold War II". Forbes.
  56. ↑ Jagannathan, R (24 August 2011). "Is the Cold War really over? Well, Cold War II is here". Firstpost.
  57. ↑ Kapila, Subhash (25 February 2016). "United States Cannot Afford Two Concurrent Cold Wars – Analysis". (Click here for original publication)
  58. ↑ Platt, Kevin (28 October 1996), "To Head off a 'Cold War II,' China and US Try to Warm Up Relations"Paid subscription required, The Christian Science Monitor, retrieved 20 February 2017 – via Questia
  59. ↑ Pilling, David. "US v China: is this the new cold war?"Paid subscription required. Financial Times. Retrieved 16 April 2016.
  60. 1 2 3 4 5 Kor Kian Beng (22 August 2016). "China warming to new Cold War?". The Straits Times.
  61. ↑ Shi Jiangtao (22 January 2017). "Will the real Donald Trump please stand up?". South China Morning Post. Retrieved 3 February 2017.
  62. ↑ Campbell, Charlie (24 January 2017). "Donald Trump Could Be Starting a New Cold War With China. But He Has Little Chance of Winning". Time. Retrieved 30 January 2017.
  63. ↑ Daly, Robert (20 January 2017). "While the West Fiddles, China Races to Define the Future"Paid subscription required. Foreign Policy. Retrieved 30 January 2017. The alternative is a new Cold War—one that renders all talk of global norms obsolete.
  64. ↑ Talton, Jon (17 January 2017). "Will Trump start a new Cold War — with China?". The Seattle Times. Retrieved 30 January 2017.
  65. ↑ Minxin Pei (9 February 2017). "China Needs a New Grand Strategy". Project Syndicate. Retrieved 4 March 2017.
  66. ↑ "Notes from the Editors". Monthly Review. March 2017. Retrieved 16 March 2017.
  67. ↑ Yi Whan-woo (2 March 2017). "THAAD pushes China closer to NK, Russia". The Korea Times. Retrieved 16 March 2017.
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