Castilian-Manchegan regional election, 2015

24 May 2015

All 33 seats in the Cortes of Castilla-La Mancha
17 seats needed for a majority

Opinion polls

Registered

1,576,351

0.6%

Turnout

1,127,147 (71.5%)

4.5 pp

	First party	Second party	Third party

Leader	María Dolores de Cospedal	Emiliano García-Page	José García Molina
Party	PP	PSOE	Podemos
Leader since	14 June 2006	26 February 2012	1 April 2015
Leader's seat	Toledo	Toledo	Toledo
Last election	25 seats, 48.1%	24 seats, 43.4%	Did not contest
Seats won	16	15	2
Seat change	9	9	2
Popular vote	413,349	398,104	107,463
Percentage	37.5%	36.1%	9.7%
Swing	10.6 pp	7.3 pp	New party

Constituency results map for the Cortes of Castilla-La Mancha

President before election

María Dolores de Cospedal
PP

Elected President

Emiliano García-Page
PSOE

The 2015 Castilian-Manchegan regional election was held on Sunday, 24 May 2015, to elect the 9th Cortes of the Autonomous Community of Castilla-La Mancha. All 33 seats in the Cortes were up for election. The election was held simultaneously with regional elections in 12 other autonomous communities and local elections all throughout Spain.

Electoral system

The electoral law of Castilla-La Mancha was reformed on 21 July 2014, with the number of seats in the Castilla-La Mancha Courts decreasing to 33 from 49.^[1] This reform was undergone after another one had been done in 2012. The 2012 reform, approved without consensus from other parties, had increased the Courts' size to 53 from 49 for the 2015 election,^[2] something which had already been criticised by the opposition PSOE, as it was deemed that the new seat-distribution between provinces benefitted the PP.^[3]

The new reform, approved unilaterally by the PP alongside an extraordinary reforming of the community's Statute of Autonomy (needed to be able to decrease the Courts' size to 33) was severely criticised as it would mean that third parties, such as United Left, Union, Progress and Democracy or ascending Podemos and Citizens would find it extremely difficult to enter the new Courts, while also benefitting the PP in the seat distribution, virtually assuring a PP absolute majority in the region even if the party plummeted in electoral terms.^[4]

After the 2014 reform, all Courts members are elected in 5 multi-member districts, corresponding to Castilla-La Mancha's five provinces, using the D'Hondt method and a closed-list proportional representation system. Each district is entitled to an initial minimum of 3 seats, with the remaining 18 seats being allocated among the five provinces in proportion to their populations. For the 2015 election, seats are distributed as follows: Albacete (6), Ciudad Real (8), Cuenca (5), Guadalajara (5) and Toledo (9).

Voting is on the basis of universal suffrage in a secret ballot. Only lists polling above 3% of the total vote in each district (which includes blank ballots—for none of the above) are entitled to enter the seat distribution.^[5]

Opinion polls

Individual poll results are listed in the table below in reverse chronological order, showing the most recent first, and using the date the survey's fieldwork was done, as opposed to the date of publication. If that date is unknown, the date of publication is given instead. The highest percentage figure in each polling survey is displayed with its background shaded in the leading party's colour. In the instance of a tie, the figures with the highest percentages are shaded. Seat projections are displayed in bold and in a different font. The lead column on the right shows the percentage-point difference between the two parties with the highest figures. 17 seats were required for an absolute majority in the Cortes of Castilla-La Mancha (25 until 13 August 2012; 27 until 21 July 2014).

Color key:

Exit poll

Polling firm/Commissioner	Fieldwork date	Sample size	Turnout							Lead
Polling firm/Commissioner	Fieldwork date	Sample size	Turnout							Lead

2015 regional election	24 May 2015	N/A	71.5	37.5 16	36.1 15	3.1 0	1.0 0	9.7 2	8.6 0	1.4

TNS Demoscopia/RTVCM^{[p 1]}	24 May 2015	20,250	?	38.4 15/17	35.2 13/15	–	–	9.9 1/2	7.0 0/1	3.2
GAD3/Antena 3^{[p 2]}	24 May 2015	?	?	? 15/16	? 13/14	? 0	? 0	? 2/3	? 0/3	?
GAD3/ABC^{[p 3]}	17 May 2015	?	?	39.4 16/17	27.5 10/11	–	–	10.6 2/3	14.2 3/4	11.9
NC Report/La Razón^{[p 4]}	17 May 2015	900	?	40.8 16/17	35.6 12/13	3.1 0	0.9 0	8.9 1/2	9.3 1/2	5.2
Sigma Dos/El Mundo^{[p 5]}	8–12 May 2015	1,200	?	37.9 15/17	32.9 11/13	4.3 0	–	10.7 3	9.6 2/3	5.0
PP^{[p 6]}	27 Apr–8 May 2015	5,000	?	37.5 17	33.6 12	4.5 0	–	10.3 2	9.8 2	3.9
Metroscopia/El País^{[p 7]}	30 Apr–5 May 2015	2,000	77	35.1 14	26.6 10	–	–	12.6 4	17.6 5	8.5
Noxa/La Calle^{[p 8]}	28 Apr–4 May 2015	2,000	?	31.6 12	32.3 14	–	–	10.0 2	17.0 5	0.7
Sigma Dos/La Tribuna^{[p 9]}	27 Apr–4 May 2015	1,500	?	37.6 15/16	28.8 11	6.4 0	–	11.4 3/4	11.1 2/4	8.8
lavozdeltajo.com^{[p 10]}	23 Apr–4 May 2015	7,274	?	39.5 13/14	40.1 14/15	1.2 0	0.2 0	10.7 3/4	8.5 2/3	0.6
GAD3/ABC^{[p 11]}	23–28 Apr 2015	1,004	?	40.1 17/18	25.5 9/10	3.6 0	0.8 0	9.1 2/3	16.9 3/5	14.6
CIS^{[p 12]}	23 Mar–19 Apr 2015	1,961	?	34.9 14/15	35.1 13	3.3 0	1.4 0	9.9 2	12.0 3/4	0.2
Noxa/La Calle^{[p 13]}	11–17 Apr 2015	2,000	75.6	35.1 14	37.1 14	3.1 0	2.9 0	11.2 4	8.5 1	2.0
Noxa/La Calle^{[p 14]}	7–14 Mar 2015	2,000	73.6	35.4 14	36.4 14	2.8 0	3.6 0	11.9 4	7.8 1	1.0
NC Report/La Razón^{[p 15]}^{[p 16]}^{[p 17]}	2–11 Mar 2015	900	?	42.3 17/18	33.1 10/11	2.8 0	1.1 0	10.0 2/3	9.2 2/3	9.2
PSOE^{[p 18]}^{[p 19]}	25 Feb 2015	?	?	? 14/15	? 15/16	–	–	? 3/5	–	?
PP^{[p 20]}	20 Feb 2015	?	?	? 17	? 11/14	? 1/2	–	? 4/5	–	?
PP^{[p 21]}	28 Jan 2015	?	?	? 18	? 10	–	–	? 5	–	?
GAD3/ABC^{[p 22]}	7–21 Jan 2015	2,002	?	42.3 18	32.5 11	–	–	11.6 4	–	9.8
Asturbarómetro^{[p 23]}	10 Dec–9 Jan 2015	?	?	42.9 17	28.1 10	2.7 0	2.8 0	16.4 6	2.4 0	14.8
Llorente & Cuenca^{[p 24]}	31 Oct 2014	?	?	? 13/15	? 14/16	? 0	? 0	? 2/4	–	?
NC Report/La Tribuna^{[p 25]}	12–23 Oct 2014	3,000	70.7	42.6 17	35.5 13	3.2 0	3.4 0	12.4 3	–	7.1
2014 EP election	25 May 2014	N/A	46.4	37.7 24	28.8 18	8.7 4	7.2 4	6.4 3	2.2 0	8.9
GAD3/ABC^{[p 26]}	26 Mar–10 Apr 2014	1,500	?	44.8 28	38.7 23	8.2 2	–	–	–	6.1
NC Report/La Tribuna^{[p 27]}	18–28 Nov 2013	3,000	69.0	41.3 27	38.9 23	7.5 3	5.6 0	–	–	2.4
NC Report/La Razón^{[p 28]}^{[p 29]}	15 Oct–12 Nov 2013	?	?	? 27	? 23/24	? 1/2	? 0/1	–	–	?
NC Report/La Tribuna^{[p 30]}	2–15 May 2013	3,000	?	41.9 27	39.7 23	7.2 3	5.5 0	–	–	2.2
NC Report/La Razón^{[p 31]}^{[p 32]}^{[p 33]}	15 Apr–10 May 2013	350	?	41.8 27	40.2 23/24	? 2/3	? 0	–	–	1.6
GAD3/ABC^{[p 34]}	1–22 Apr 2013	1,500	?	43.5 28	40.1 22	8.9 3	3.3 0	–	–	3.4
2011 general election	20 Nov 2011	N/A	75.8	55.8 32	30.3 17	5.8 0	5.0 0	–	–	25.5

2011 regional election	22 May 2011	N/A	76.0	48.1 25	43.4 24	3.8 0	1.8 0	–	–	4.7

Results

Overall

← Summary of the 24 May 2015 Cortes of Castilla-La Mancha election results
Parties and coalitions		Popular vote			Seats

Parties and coalitions		Votes	%	±pp	Won	+/−
	People's Party (PP)	413,349	37.49	–10.62	16	–9
	Spanish Socialist Workers' Party (PSOE)	398,104	36.11	–7.29	15	–9
	We Can (Podemos)	107,463	9.75	New	2	+2
	Citizens–Party of the Citizenry (C's)	95,230	8.64	New	0	±0
	Let's Win Castilla-La Mancha–The Greens–United Left (Ganemos–LV–IU)	34,230	3.10	–0.67	0	±0

Parties with less than 1.0% of the vote		34,896	3.17	—	±0
	Union, Progress and Democracy (UPyD)	10,866	0.99	–0.76	±0
	Animalist Party Against Mistreatment of Animals (PACMA)	8,943	0.81	+0.46	±0
	Vox (Vox)	5,302	0.48	New	±0
	Independent Citizens' Union (UCIN)¹	5,061	0.46	+0.34	±0
	The Greens–Green Group (LV–GV)	1,918	0.17	–0.03	±0
	Castilian Party–Castilian Unity (PCAS–UdCa)²	1,532	0.14	–0.15	±0
	Communist Party of the Peoples of Spain (PCPE)	987	0.09	New	±0
	Independents and Liberals for Manzanares (LIM)	287	0.03	New	±0

Blank ballots

19,256

1.75

+0.08

Total

1,102,528

100.00

–16

Valid votes

1,102,528

97.82

–0.87

Invalid votes

24,619

2.18

+0.87

Votes cast / turnout

1,127,147

71.50

–4.46

Abstentions

449,204

28.50

+4.46

Registered voters

1,576,351

Source(s): Argos Information Portal, Cortes of Castilla-La Mancha, historiaelectoral.com

Notes:
¹ Independent Citizens' Union results are compared to the combined totals of Toledo Independent Citizens' Union in the 2011 election. ² Castilian Party–Castilian Unity results are compared to the combined totals of Castilian Party and Castilian Unity in the 2011 election.

Popular vote

PP			37.49%
PSOE			36.11%
Podemos			9.75%
C's			8.64%
Ganemos–LV–IU			3.10%
Others			3.17%
Blank ballots			1.75%

Seats

PP			48.48%
PSOE			45.45%
Podemos			6.06%

Distribution by constituency

Constituency	PP		PSOE		Podemos

	%	S	%	S	%	S
Albacete	36.7	3	33.8	3	11.2	−
Ciudad Real	37.1	4	38.8	4	8.4	−
Cuenca	41.5	3	37.6	2	8.0	−
Guadalajara	33.7	2	30.0	2	14.6	1
Toledo	38.3	4	36.9	4	8.8	1
Total	37.5	16	36.1	15	9.7	2

Opinion poll sources

↑ "El PP obtendría entre 15 y 17 diputados en Castilla-La Mancha y el PSOE entre 13 y 15". ABC (in Spanish). 24 May 2015.
↑ "Encuestas y resultados - elecciones autonómicas y municipales del 24 de mayo de 2015". GAD3 (in Spanish). 28 May 2015.
↑ "Cospedal, ante su primera reválida". ABC (in Spanish). 17 May 2015.
↑ "Encuesta mayo 2015" (PDF). La Razón (in Spanish). 17 May 2015.
↑ "Cospedal se queda al filo de la mayoría absoluta en Castilla-La Mancha". El Mundo (in Spanish). 17 May 2015.
↑ "La última y muy reciente encuesta interna del PP: mayoría absoluta de Cospedal y victoria en las cinco provincias". Eldigitalcastillalamancha.es (in Spanish). 11 May 2015. Archived from the original on 18 May 2015.
↑ "Situación política en Castilla - La Mancha". El País (in Spanish). 9 May 2015.
↑ "Estudio político Castilla-La Mancha / mayo de 2015" (PDF). Noxa Consulting (in Spanish). 18 May 2015. Archived from the original (PDF) on 18 May 2015.
↑ "Cospedal ganará las elecciones y superará a Page en las 5 provincias". La Tribuna de Toledo (in Spanish). 14 May 2015.
↑ "Page vencería aunque sin mayoría, en la encuesta de La Voz del Tajo". lavozdeltajo.com (in Spanish). 5 May 2015.
↑ "Cospedal, cerca de obtener su segunda mayoría absoluta en Castilla-La Mancha". ABC (in Spanish). 3 May 2015.
↑ "Preelectoral elecciones autonómicas 2015. Comunidad Autónoma de Castilla-La Mancha (Estudio nº 3071. Marzo-Abril 2015)" (PDF). CIS (in Spanish). 7 May 2015.
↑ "Page ganaría a Cospedal en la mayoría de grandes localidades de la región". La Calle (in Spanish). 22 April 2015. Archived from the original on 30 April 2015.
↑ "Cospedal pierde la mayoría y empata con Page, mejor valorado por los ciudadanos". La Calle (in Spanish). 24 March 2015.
↑ "El PP seguirá siendo el más votado en las CC AA pese a la caída en apoyos". La Razón (in Spanish). 20 April 2015.
↑ "Castilla-La Mancha: Cospedal aguanta el tipo ante un PSOE desgastado en la oposición". La Razón (in Spanish). 20 April 2015.
↑ "Encuesta mayo 2015" (PDF). La Razón (in Spanish). 20 April 2015.
↑ "Los sondeos prevén la entrada de Podemos en Castilla-La Mancha y la salida de Cospedal del Gobierno". VozPópuli (in Spanish). 25 February 2015. Archived from the original on 26 February 2015.
↑ "CASTILLA-LA MANCHA, Febrero 2015. Sondeos internos PP y PSOE". Electograph (in Spanish). 25 February 2015.
↑ "CASTILLA-LA MANCHA, Febrero 2015. Sondeo interno PP". Electograph (in Spanish). 20 February 2015.
↑ "Cospedal revalida". ABC (in Spanish). 28 January 2015.
↑ "Cospedal renovará la mayoría absoluta en Castilla-La Mancha". ABC (in Spanish). 1 March 2015.
↑ "El PP revalidaría la mayoría absoluta en Castilla-La Mancha con 17 diputados". ABC (in Spanish). 1 February 2015.
↑ "El reparto del poder territorial en España en 2015" (PDF). desarrollando-ideas.com (in Spanish). 31 October 2014.
↑ "Cospedal revalidaría la mayoría absoluta en las elecciones regionales". La Tribuna de Albacete (in Spanish). 17 November 2014.
↑ "El PP refuerza su mayoría absoluta con 28 diputados frente a los 23 del PSOE". ABC (in Spanish). 4 May 2014.
↑ "Cospedal repetiría mayoría absoluta con 4 diputados más que el PSOE". La Tribuna de Albacete (in Spanish). 16 December 2013.
↑ "El PP ganaría de nuevo en 9 de 13 autonomías". La Razón (in Spanish). 18 November 2013. Archived from the original on 3 March 2016.
↑ "Encuesta autonómicas NC Report noviembre 2013" (PDF). La Razón (in Spanish). 18 November 2013.
↑ "Cospedal volvería a ganar por mayoría absoluta". La Tribuna de Albacete (in Spanish). 20 May 2013.
↑ "El PP mantiene el poder autonómico". La Razón (in Spanish). 13 May 2013.
↑ "Repite la mayoría absoluta: Castilla-La Mancha, Baleares, Castilla y León, Región de Murcia y La Rioja". La Razón (in Spanish). 13 May 2013.
↑ "El PP ganaría en la mayoría de las autonomías (La Razón)". Electómetro (in Spanish). 13 May 2013. Archived from the original on 4 March 2016.
↑ "Cospedal aumentaría su mayoría absoluta en Castilla-La Mancha". ABC (in Spanish). 31 May 2013.

References

↑ "Law 4/2014, of 21 July, Reform of the Law 5/1986, electoral of Castilla-La Mancha".
↑ "Law 4/2012, of 17 May, of adecuation of the Law 5/1986, electoral of Castilla-La Mancha".
↑ "The PP proposes a new electoral law in Castilla-La Mancha which the PSOE rejects" (in Spanish). El Mundo. 2012-04-04.
↑ "Cospedal consumes her electoral rigging" (in Spanish). eldiario.es. 2014-07-21.
↑ "Law 5/1986, of 23 December, electoral of Castilla-La Mancha".

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