Basque regional election, 2016

Basque regional election, 2016
Basque Country (autonomous community)
25 September 2016

All 75 seats in the Basque Parliament
38 seats needed for a majority
Opinion polls
Registered 1,783,419 0.5%
Turnout 1,070,357 (60.0%)
3.9 pp

  First party Second party Third party
 
Leader Iñigo Urkullu Maddalen Iriarte Pilar Zabala
Party EAJ/PNV EH Bildu Elkarrekin Podemos
Leader since 2 December 2007 24 August 2016 11 August 2016
Leader's seat Álava Gipuzkoa Gipuzkoa
Last election 27 seats, 34.2% 21 seats, 24.7% 0 seats, 3.7%
Seats won 28 18 11
Seat change 1 3 11
Popular vote 398,168 225,172 157,334
Percentage 37.4% 21.1% 14.8%
Swing 3.2 pp 3.6 pp 11.1 pp

  Fourth party Fifth party Sixth party
 
Leader Idoia Mendia Alfonso Alonso Nicolás de Miguel
Party PSE–EE (PSOE) PP C's
Leader since 20 September 2014 15 October 2015 2 August 2016
Leader's seat Biscay Álava Álava
Last election 16 seats, 18.9% 10 seats, 11.6% Did not contest
Seats won 9 9 0
Seat change 7 1 0
Popular vote 126,420 107,771 21,477
Percentage 11.9% 10.1% 2.0%
Swing 7.0 pp 1.5 pp New party

Constituency results map for the Basque Parliament

Lehendakari before election

Iñigo Urkullu
EAJ/PNV

Elected Lehendakari

Iñigo Urkullu
EAJ/PNV

The 2016 Basque regional election was held on Sunday, 25 September 2016, to elect the 11th Parliament of the Basque Autonomous Community. All 75 seats in the Parliament were up for election. The election was held simultaneously with a regional election in Galicia.

Lehendakari Iñigo Urkullu announced the election would be held one month ahead of schedule, on September 2016, as a result of the ongoing "climate of ungovernability" affecting national politics and intending to move the regional election away from a possible new general election and from the speculation surrounding the national government formation process.[1] In a domino effect, this prompted Galician President Alberto Núñez Feijóo to also set the Galician regional election, scheduled for autumn 2016, for the same date.[2]

Background

On 1 March 2016, Sortu Secretary-General Arnaldo Otegi left the Logroño prison after serving his full prison sentence imposed for attempting to reorganize the banned Batasuna party. In addition to the prison sentence, Otegi had been sentenced to disqualification from holding any public office until 2021.[3] Despite this, on 24 May the EH Bildu coalition proclaimed him as its candidate for lehendakari, on grounds that the ruling did not specify what specific charges affected his disqualification.[4] After the official announcement of elections for 25 September, the various parties began to express their opinions on the issue.

The Basque Nationalist Party and Podemos announced that they would challenge his candidacy because they thought it should be up to the Basque citizens to decide whether Otegi deserved to be elected or not;[5] the Socialist Party of the Basque Country, meanwhile, said that it would not challenge him either because the decision should be taken by justice.[6] The People's Party, Citizens and Union, Progress and Democracy announced that, following the publication of electoral lists, they would go to the prosecution to challenge Otegi's candidacy.[7]

On August 24 the Gipuzkoa Provincial Electoral Board ruled that Otegi could not be a candidate in the lists of EH Bildu for being barred to stand for election as part of his sentence.[8] The journalist Maddalen Iriarte, who was second in EH Bildu Gipuzkoa's list, went on to top the list as provided for in Article 65.2 of the Electoral Law of the Basque Country.[9]

Electoral system

The 75 members of the Basque Parliament were elected using the D'Hondt method and a closed list proportional representation, with a threshold of 3 per 100 of valid votes—which included blank ballots—being applied in each constituency. Parties not reaching the threshold were not taken into consideration for seat distribution. Additionally, the use of the D'Hondt method might result in an effective threshold over three percent, dependant on the district magnitude.[10] Seats were allocated to constituencies, corresponding to the Basque provinces of Álava, Biscay and Gipuzkoa. Each constituency was allocated a fixed number of 25 seats each, to provide for an equal representation of the three provinces in Parliament as required under the regional Statute of Autonomy.[n 1][12][13] Voting was on the basis of universal suffrage, with all nationals over eighteen, registered in the Basque Country and in full enjoyment of all political rights entitled to vote. Additionally, Basques abroad were required to apply for voting before being permitted to vote, a registration system known in Spain as a "begged vote" or expat vote (Spanish: Voto rogado).[14]

The electoral law provided that parties, federations, coalitions and groupings of electors were allowed to present lists of candidates. However, groupings of electors were required to secure at least the signature of 1 per 100 of the electors entered in electoral register of the constituency for which they were seeking election. Electors were barred from signing for more than one list of candidates. Concurrently, parties and federations intending to enter in coalition to take part jointly at an election were required to inform the relevant Electoral Commission within ten days from the election call.[12][15][16]

Elections could be held up to 30 days from the previous legislature's expiry date, which would take place four years after the previous election.[n 2] The Lehendakari had the prerogative to dissolve the Parliament and call a snap election, provided that no motion of no confidence was in process. Additionally, the chamber was to be automatically dissolved and a new election called if an investiture process failed to elect a Lehendakari within a 60-day period from the Parliament re-assembly.[17]

Campaign

Parties, leaders and slogans

Party/alliance Leader/candidate Campaign slogan(s)
Basque Nationalist Party (EAJ/PNV) Iñigo Urkullu "Build the Basque Country. Look to the future"[18]
Basque Country Unite (EH Bildu) Arnaldo Otegi
Maddalen Iriarte
"Here and now. A shared country"[18]
Socialist Party of the Basque Country–Basque Country Left (PSE–EE (PSOE)) Idoia Mendia "Together"[18]
People's Party of the Basque Country (PP) Alfonso Alonso "Alonso, the voice that unites us"[18]
United We Can (PodemosIUeQuo) (Elkarrekin Podemos) Pilar Zabala "For the Basque Country. With the people"[18]
Citizens–Party of the Citizenry (C's) Nicolás de Miguel "Europeans from the South, Spaniards from the North, Basques of centre"[18]

Opinion polls

Individual poll results are listed in the table below in reverse chronological order, showing the most recent first, and using the date the survey's fieldwork was done, as opposed to the date of publication. If that date is unknown, the date of publication is given instead. The highest percentage figure in each polling survey is displayed with its background shaded in the leading party's colour. In the instance of a tie, the figures with the highest percentages are shaded. in the case of seat projections, they are displayed in bold and in a different font. The lead column on the right shows the percentage-point difference between the two parties with the highest figures. 38 seats were required for an absolute majority in the Basque Parliament.

Color key:

  Poll conducted after legal ban on opinion polls   Exit poll

Results

Overall

Summary of the 25 September 2016 Basque Parliament election results
Parties and coalitions Popular vote Seats
Votes % ±pp Won +/−
Basque Nationalist Party (EAJ/PNV) 398,168 37.36 +3.20 28 +1
Basque Country Unite (EH Bildu) 225,172 21.13 –3.54 18 –3
United We Can (PodemosIUeQuo) (Elkarrekin Podemos)1 157,334 14.76 +11.04 11 +11
Socialist Party of the Basque Country–Basque Country Left (PSE–EE (PSOE)) 126,420 11.86 –7.03 9 –7
People's Party (PP) 107,771 10.11 –1.48 9 –1
Citizens–Party of the Citizenry (C's) 21,477 2.02 New 0 ±0
Blank ballots 6,681 0.63 –0.67
Total 1,065,685 100.00 75 ±0
Valid votes 1,065,685 99.56 +0.37
Invalid votes 4,672 0.44 –0.37
Votes cast / turnout 1,070,357 60.02 –3.94
Abstentions 713,062 39.98 +3.94
Registered voters 1,783,419
Source(s): Basque Government, historiaelectoral.com
Popular vote
EAJ/PNV
 
37.36%
EH Bildu
 
21.13%
E. Podemos
 
14.76%
PSE–EE (PSOE)
 
11.86%
PP
 
10.11%
C's
 
2.02%
Others
 
2.13%
Blank ballots
 
0.63%
Seats
EAJ/PNV
 
37.33%
EH Bildu
 
24.00%
E. Podemos
 
14.67%
PSE–EE (PSOE)
 
12.00%
PP
 
12.00%

Distribution by constituency

Constituency PNV EH Bildu EPodemos PSE–EE PP
% S % S % S % S % S
Álava 28.0 8 17.8 5 16.1 4 12.9 3 18.5 5
Biscay 41.8 11 17.5 5 14.8 4 11.7 3 9.7 2
Gipuzkoa 34.0 9 28.7 8 14.2 3 11.8 3 7.2 2
Total 37.6 28 21.3 18 14.9 11 11.9 9 10.2 9

Aftermath

Investiture vote

First round: 23 November 2016
Absolute majority (38/75) required
Choice Vote
Parties Votes
Iñigo Urkullu PNV (28), PSE–EE (9)
37 / 75
Maddalen Iriarte EH Bildu (18)
18 / 75
Blank ballots EP (11), PP (9)
20 / 75
Source: historiaelectoral.com
Second round: 24 November 2016
Simple majority required
Choice Vote
Parties Votes
YesIñigo Urkullu PNV (28), PSE–EE (9)
37 / 75
Maddalen Iriarte EH Bildu (18)
18 / 75
Blank ballots EP (11), PP (9)
20 / 75
Source: historiaelectoral.com

Notes

  1. This meant that Álava was allocated the same number of seats as Biscay and Gipuzkoa, despite their populations being, as of 1 July 2016: 322,801, 1,134,041 and 708,288, respectively.[11]
  2. As per Article 46 of the Basque Parliament Elections Law of 1990, the election Decree was to be issued no later than the twenty-fifth day prior to the date of expiry of Parliament and published on the following day in the Official Gazette of the Basque Country, with election day being held on the fifty-fourth day from publication. As a result, an election could not be held later than the thirtieth day from the date of expiry of Parliament.

Opinion poll sources

  1. "Sondeo EiTB 25S: PNV ganaría con EH Bildu segunda y Podemos tercera". EiTB (in Spanish). 2016-09-25.
  2. "PAÍS VASCO (Autonómicas), Septiembre 2016. Sondeo Gizaker (3)". Electograph (in Spanish). 25 September 2016.
  3. "El PNV acaricia una victoria mayor de la esperada". eldiario.es (in Spanish). 17 September 2016.
  4. "EiTB Focus: Un puñado de votos podría cambiar el Parlamento". EiTB (in Spanish). 19 September 2016.
  5. "PAÍS VASCO (Autonómicas), Septiembre 2016. Sondeo Gizaker (2)". Electograph (in Spanish). 19 September 2016.
  6. "El PNV sube pero necesitará pactar con el PSE o el PP". ABC (in Spanish). 18 September 2016.
  7. "Encuesta socio-electoral en País Vasco". GAD3 (in Spanish). 18 September 2016.
  8. "El PNV ganaría las elecciones vascas pero tendrá que pactar". El País (in Spanish). 19 September 2016.
  9. "Urkullu se consolida y podrá gobernar con el PSOE o el PP". El Mundo (in Spanish). 18 September 2016.
  10. "El PSOE se hunde en País Vasco y queda tras En Marea en Galicia". La Razón (in Spanish). 18 September 2016.
  11. "Estimación de voto en País Vasco" (PDF). La Razón (in Spanish). 18 September 2016.
  12. "Estimación de voto en País Vasco (Por provincias)" (PDF). La Razón (in Spanish). 18 September 2016.
  13. "PAÍS VASCO (Autonómicas), Septiembre 2016. Sondeo Ikerfel". Electograph (in Spanish). 18 September 2016.
  14. "Previsiones de voto para Elecciones Autonómicas (Septiembre 2016)" (PDF). Lehendakaritza (in Spanish). 14 September 2016.
  15. "PAÍS VASCO (Autonómicas), Septiembre 2016. Sondeo Ikertalde / Gob. Vasco". Electograph (in Spanish). 14 September 2016.
  16. "EiTB Focus: El PNV ganaría el 25S; EH Bildu segunda y Podemos, tercera". EiTB (in Spanish). 7 September 2016.
  17. "PAÍS VASCO (Autonómicas), Septiembre 2016. Sondeo Gizaker". Electograph (in Spanish). 7 September 2016.
  18. "Preelectoral del País Vasco. Elecciones autonómicas 2016 (Estudio nº 3152. Agosto-Septiembre 2016)" (PDF). CIS (in Spanish). 9 September 2016.
  19. "Unidos Podemos ganaría las generales en Euskadi en votos y escaños". EiTB (in Spanish). 16 June 2016.
  20. "PAÍS VASCO (Autonómicas y Generales), Junio 2016. Sondeo Gizaker". Electograph (in Spanish). 16 June 2016.
  21. "Previsiones de voto para Elecciones Generales y Autonómicas (Junio 2016)" (PDF). Lehendakaritza (in Spanish). 9 June 2016.
  22. "PAÍS VASCO (Autonómicas y Generales), Junio 2016. Sondeo Ikertalde / GPS G. Vasco". Electograph (in Spanish). 9 June 2016.
  23. "BCO Euskadi. Elecciones Autonómicas y Generales del 26 de Junio". SyM Consulting (in Spanish). 29 April 2016.
  24. "Unidos Podemos ganaría en votos empatando a escaños con el PNV". EiTB (in Spanish). 19 May 2016.
  25. "PAÍS VASCO (Autonómicas y Generales), Mayo 2016. Sondeo Gizaker". Electograph (in Spanish). 19 May 2016.
  26. "El PNV ganaría las elecciones; Podemos y EH Bildu empatarían". EiTB (in Spanish). 21 April 2016.
  27. "PAÍS VASCO (Autonómicas y Generales), Abril 2016. Sondeo Gizaker". Electograph (in Spanish). 21 April 2016.
  28. "Previsiones de voto para Elecciones Autonómicas (Febrero 2016)" (PDF). Lehendakaritza (in Spanish). 16 February 2016.
  29. "PAÍS VASCO, Febrero 2016. Sondeo Ikertalde / GPS Gobierno Vasco". Electograph (in Spanish). 16 February 2016.
  30. "Euskobarómetro Enero 2016. Estimación Electoral Parlamento Vasco" (PDF). EHU (in Spanish). 18 March 2016.
  31. "Elecciones vascas: PNV 30% (22-23), Podemos (21-22), Bildu 19% (13-14), PSE-EE 12.8% (10), PP 8.3% (6), IU 3% (0-1)". Twitter (in Spanish). 17 January 2016.
  32. "Euskobarómetro Mayo 2015. Estimación Electoral" (PDF). EHU (in Spanish). 30 July 2015.
  33. "Euskobarómetro Noviembre 2014. Estimaciones Electorales". EHU (in Spanish). 26 December 2014.
  34. "Proyección del resultado de las europeas en los parlamentos autonómicos". El País (in Spanish). 31 May 2014.
  35. "Euskobarómetro. Estimaciones Electorales del Euskobarómetro de Mayo de 2014 para el Parlamento Vasco". EHU (in Spanish). 4 July 2014.
  36. "Euskobarómetro. Estimaciones Electorales del Euskobarómetro "Noviembre 2013" para el Parlamento Vasco". EHU (in Spanish). 27 December 2013.
  37. "Previsiones de voto para Elecciones Autonómicas (Noviembre 2013)" (PDF). Lehendakaritza (in Spanish). 21 November 2013.
  38. "Intención directa de voto y estimaciones de voto válido". Electómetro (in Spanish). 27 May 2013. Archived from the original on 4 March 2016.
  39. "Previsiones de voto para Elecciones Autonómicas (Mayo 2013)" (PDF). Lehendakaritza (in Spanish). 27 April 2013.

References

  1. "Urkullu moves forward the Basque election to 25 September" (in Spanish). El Mundo. 2016-07-29.
  2. "Feijóo sets the Galician election for 25 September" (in Spanish). El País. 2016-08-01.
  3. "Arnaldo Otegi leaves the Logroño prison after six and a half years imprisoned" (in Spanish). El País. 2016-03-01.
  4. "EH Bildu membership chooses Otegi as lehendakari candidate" (in Spanish). El País. 2016-05-24.
  5. "Prosecutors emphasize that Otegi is "ineligible"" (in Spanish). El País. 2016-08-12.
  6. "The PSE–EE will not challenge Otegi's candidacy" (in Spanish). El Mundo. 2016-08-11.
  7. "PP, UPyD and C's will challenge Otegi's list in defense of the victims of terrorism" (in Spanish). El Mundo. 2016-08-09.
  8. "The Board ratifies that Otegi cannot be candidate and bars him from contesting the Basque election" (in Spanish). Europa Press. 2016-08-29.
  9. "The Electoral Board rules that Otegi cannot be candidate for being disqualified" (in Spanish). El País. 2016-08-24.
  10. "Effective threshold in electoral systems". Trinity College, Dublin. 30 July 2012. Retrieved 22 July 2017.
  11. "Series detalladas desde 2002. Resultados por Provincias. Población residente por fecha, sexo y edad". ine.es (in Spanish). National Institute of Statistics. Retrieved 17 July 2017.
  12. 1 2 Basque Parliament Elections Law of 1990, Law No. 5 of June 15, 1990 Official Gazette of the Basque Country (in Spanish). Retrieved on 17 July 2017.
  13. Statute of Autonomy of the Basque Country of 1979, Organic Law No. 3 of December 18, 1979 Official State Gazette (in Spanish). Retrieved on 17 July 2017.
  14. Reig Pellicer, Naiara (16 December 2015). "Spanish elections: Begging for the right to vote". cafebabel.co.uk. Retrieved 17 July 2017.
  15. General Electoral System Organic Law of 1985, Organic Law No. 5 of June 19, 1985 Official State Gazette (in Spanish). Retrieved on 28 December 2016.
  16. "Representation of the people Institutional Act". juntaelectoralcentral.es. Central Electoral Commission. Retrieved 16 June 2017.
  17. Government Law of 1981, Law No. 7 of June 30, 1981 Official Gazette of the Basque Country (in Spanish). Retrieved on 17 July 2017.
  18. 1 2 3 4 5 6 "PNV, Elkarrekin Podemos and C's open campaign in Vitoria, EH Bildu and PSE in Bilbao and the PP in San Sebastián" (in Spanish). 20 Minutos. 2016-09-08.
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