Asturian regional election, 2012

Asturian regional election, 2012
Asturias
25 March 2012
All 45 seats in the General Junta of the Principality of Asturias
23 seats needed for a majority
Opinion polls
Registered 989,993 0.3%
Turnout 506,368 (51.1%)
10.6 pp

  First party Second party Third party
 
Leader Javier Fernández Francisco Álvarez-Cascos Mercedes Fernández
Party PSOE FAC PP
Leader since 23 October 2010 18 January 2011 14 February 2012
Leader's seat Central Central Central
Last election 15 seats, 29.9% 16 seats, 29.7% 10 seats, 20.0%
Seats won 17 12 10
Seat change 2 4 0
Popular vote 161,159 124,518 108,091
Percentage 32.1% 24.8% 21.5%
Swing 2.2 pp 4.9 pp 1.5 pp
  Fourth party Fifth party
 
Leader Jesús Iglesias Ignacio Prendes
Party IU/IX UPyD
Leader since 2007 2 November 2010
Leader's seat Central Central
Last election 4 seats, 10.3% 0 seats, 2.4%
Seats won 5 1
Seat change 1 1
Popular vote 69,118 18,801
Percentage 13.8% 3.7%
Swing 3.5 pp 1.3 pp

Constituency results map for the General Junta of the Principality of Asturias
President before election

Francisco Álvarez-Cascos
FAC

 Elected President

Javier Fernández
PSOE

The 2012 Asturian regional election was held on Sunday, 25 March 2012, to elect the 9th General Junta of the Principality of Asturias. All 45 seats in the General Junta were up for election. The election was held simultaneously with a regional election in Andalusia.

This was a snap election held as a result of the incumbent government under Francisco Álvarez-Cascos failing to pass the 2012 budget in the General Junta after just six months in power.[1][2] The Asturian Socialist Federation (FSA–PSOE) under Javier Fernández, which had scored first in votes but second in seats in the previous election, went on to win a decisive victory whereas Álvarez Cascos' Asturias Forum (FAC) lost its seat plurality of seats it had won in the previous election and fell from 16 to 12 seats. The People's Party (PP) was unable to improve on its 2011 results despite a change of leadership and remained stagnant at 10 seats, while United Left (IU/IX) grew from 4 to 5 seats. Voter turnout was the lowest since 1983, as just 51.1% of the electorate cast a ballot.

The election resulted in a draw between the centre-left (PSOE–IU) and centre-right (FAC–PP) blocs after the counting of the vote of those living abroad deprived FAC from a seat in the Eastern District, awarding it to PSOE. Union, Progress and Democracy (UPyD), which managed to get into parliament after failure in 2011 to do so, became determinant for either bloc to attain an absolute majority, with ensuing negotiations resulting in a Socialist minority government led by Javier Fernández.

Electoral system

The 45 members of the General Junta of the Principality of Asturias were elected using the D'Hondt method and a closed list proportional representation, with a threshold of 3 per 100 of valid votes—which included blank ballots—being applied in each constituency. Parties not reaching the threshold were not taken into consideration for seat distribution. Additionally, the use of the D'Hondt method might result in an effective threshold over three percent, dependant on the district magnitude.[3] Seats were allocated to constituencies, which were established by law to comprise the following municipalities:

Each constituency was entitled to an initial minimum of two seats, with the remaining 39 allocated among the constituencies in proportion to their populations.[4][5] Voting was on the basis of universal suffrage, with all nationals over eighteen, registered in Asturias and in full enjoyment of all political rights entitled to vote. Additionally, Asturians abroad were required to apply for voting before being permitted to vote, a system known as "begged" or expat vote (Spanish: Voto rogado).[6]

The electoral law provided that parties, federations, coalitions and groupings of electors were allowed to present lists of candidates. However, groupings of electors were required to secure at least the signature of 1 per 100 of the electors entered in electoral register of the constituency for which they were seeking election. Electors were barred from signing for more than one list of candidates. Concurrently, parties and federations intending to enter in coalition to take part jointly at an election were required to inform the relevant Electoral Commission within ten days from the election call.[4][7][8]

Elections were fixed for the fourth Sunday of May every four years. The President of the Principality of Asturias had the prerogative to dissolve the General Junta and call a snap election, provided that no motion of no confidence was in process, no nationwide election was due and some time requirements were met—namely, that dissolution did not occur either during the first legislative session or within the legislature's last year ahead of its scheduled expiry, nor before one year had elapsed since a previous dissolution under this procedure—. Additionally, the chamber was to be automatically dissolved and a new election called if an investiture process failed to elect a regional President within a two-month period from the first ballot. Any snap election held as a result of these circumstances would not alter the period to the next ordinary election, with elected deputies merely serving out what remained of their four-year terms.[5][7]

Opinion polls

Individual poll results are listed in the table below in reverse chronological order, showing the most recent first, and using the date the survey's fieldwork was done, as opposed to the date of publication. If that date is unknown, the date of publication is given instead. The highest percentage figure in each polling survey is displayed with its background shaded in the leading party's colour. In the instance of a tie, the figures with the highest percentages are shaded. Seat projections are displayed in bold and in a different font. The lead column on the right shows the percentage-point difference between the two parties with the highest figures. 23 seats were required for an absolute majority in the General Junta of the Principality of Asturias.

Results

Overall

← Summary of the 25 March 2012 General Junta of the Principality of Asturias election results →
Parties and coalitions Popular vote Seats
Votes % ±pp Won +/−
Spanish Socialist Workers' Party (PSOE) 161,159 32.10 +2.18 17 +2
Asturias Forum (FAC) 124,518 24.80 –4.86 12 –4
People's Party (PP) 108,091 21.53 +1.58 10 ±0
United Left of Asturias (IU/IX) 69,118 13.77 +3.49 5 +1
Union, Progress and Democracy (UPyD) 18,801 3.74 +1.30 1 +1
Blank ballots 7,166 1.43 –1.17
Total 502,073 100.00 45 ±0
Valid votes 502,073 99.15 +0.59
Invalid votes 4,295 0.85 –0.59
Votes cast / turnout 506,368 51.15 –10.54
Abstentions 483,625 48.85 +10.54
Registered voters 989,993
Source(s): General Junta of the Principality of Asturias, SADEI, historiaelectoral.com
Popular vote
PSOE
  
 32.10%
FAC
  
 24.80%
PP
  
 21.53%
IU/IX
  
 13.77%
UPyD
  
 3.74%
Others
  
 2.63%
Blank ballots
  
 1.43%
Seats
PSOE
  
 37.78%
FAC
  
 26.67%
PP
  
 22.22%
IU/IX
  
 11.11%
UPyD
  
 2.22%

Distribution by constituency

Constituency PSOE FAC PP IU/IX UPyD
% S % S % S % S % S
Central 31.2 12 24.6 9 20.6 7 15.0 5 4.2 1
Eastern 35.9 2 28.3 2 24.3 1 6.5 − 1.8 −
Western 35.8 3 23.8 1 26.3 2 9.3 − 1.7 −
Total 32.1 17 24.8 12 21.5 10 13.8 5 3.7 1

Post-election

After the election, the leader of the Asturian PSOE, Javier Fernández, and incumbent Asturian President, Francisco Álvarez Cascos, were tasked to form a coalition government. The election led to a political impasse as the center-left (PSOE and IU-IX) and center-right coalitions (FAC and PP) each gained 22 seats in the election (23 seats are required for a majority in the 45-seat Assembly). The remaining seat was held by the centrist UPyD, which became the kingmaker in the negotiation.

Coalition talks took almost two months to reach an agreement. One of the main events during the negotiation was the legal battle in the Spanish Constitutional Court over the 45th seat, the assignment of which was delayed by the counting of the ballots of those voting abroad. FAC disputed the seat's assignment to the PSOE and asked for a revote; however, the Constitutional Court rejected the appeal and upheld the seat for the PSOE.[9]

UPyD finally agreed to support a PSOE government, their main reason to do so being the threat by Finance Minister Cristóbal Montoro to intervene in Asturian government accounts.[10] On 23 May 2012, PSOE leader Javier Fernández was elected as the new President of the Principality of Asturias with support from IU and UPyD.[11]

Opinion poll sources

  1. ↑ "Barómetro electoral autonómico". Celeste-Tel (in Spanish). 19 March 2012.
  2. ↑ "El PP superaría a Cascos". La Razón (in Spanish). 19 March 2012.
  3. ↑ "El PP supera a Cascos y podrían formar Gobierno juntos (La Razón)". Electómetro (in Spanish). 19 March 2012. Archived from the original on 30 June 2016.
  4. ↑ "Cascos se desploma en Asturias y el PP podría gobernar si el apoyara el FAC". ABC (in Spanish). 19 March 2012.
  5. ↑ "Cascos mantiene el pulso y puede gobernar con el PP". El Mundo (in Spanish). 18 March 2012.
  6. ↑ "Comunidad Autónoma de Asturias. Resultados Encuesta. Marzo 2012" (PDF). Instituto Opinión 2000 (in Spanish). 16 March 2012. Archived from the original on 28 April 2014.
  7. ↑ "El PSOE ganaría, pero el PP y Foro tendrían mayoría absoluta y gobernarían si pactasen". La Nueva España (in Spanish). 18 March 2012.
  8. ↑ "Los sondeos dan al PSOE la victoria en votos y el gobierno a un pacto Foro-PP". RTPA (in Spanish). 18 March 2012.
  9. ↑ "Una mayoría con pacto y por decimales". La Voz de Asturias (in Spanish). 6 March 2012. Archived from the original on 8 March 2012.
  10. ↑ "Preelectoral elecciones autonómicas 2012 (Principado de Asturias) (Estudio nº 2934. Febrero 2012)" (PDF). CIS (in Spanish). 8 March 2012.
  11. ↑ "El PP alcanza a Cascos en Asturias". La Razón (in Spanish). 5 March 2012.
  12. ↑ "El PP lidera las encuestas en Asturias y el partido de Cascos se desploma". La Gaceta (in Spanish). 26 February 2012. Archived from the original on 27 February 2012.

References

  1. ↑ "Cascos calls snap election in Asturias by surprise for 25 March" (in Spanish). RTVE. 2012-01-30.
  2. ↑ "Cascos sets snap election and accuses both PP and PSOE of a 'plot'" (in Spanish). El Mundo. 2012-01-30.
  3. ↑ "Effective threshold in electoral systems". Trinity College, Dublin. 30 July 2012. Retrieved 22 July 2017.
  4. 1 2 General Junta of the Principality of Asturias Elections System Law of 1986, Law No. 14 of December 26, 1986 Official Gazette of the Principality of Asturias (in Spanish). Retrieved on 14 March 2017.
  5. 1 2 Statute of Autonomy for Asturias of 1981, Organic Law No. 7 of December 30, 1981 Official State Gazette (in Spanish). Retrieved on 14 March 2017.
  6. ↑ Reig Pellicer, Naiara (16 December 2015). "Spanish elections: Begging for the right to vote". cafebabel.co.uk. Retrieved 17 July 2017.
  7. 1 2 General Electoral System Organic Law of 1985, Organic Law No. 5 of June 19, 1985 Official State Gazette (in Spanish). Retrieved on 28 December 2016.
  8. ↑ "Representation of the people Institutional Act". juntaelectoralcentral.es. Central Electoral Commission. Retrieved 16 June 2017.
  9. ↑ "One month and 21 days of thrill" (in Spanish). El País. 2012-05-16.
  10. ↑ "The PSOE will govern in Asturias after reaching an agreement with UPyD" (in Spanish). El País. 2012-05-16.
  11. ↑ "Javier Fernández, President of Asturias with the support of IU and UPyD" (in Spanish). El País. 2012-05-23.
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