Asturian regional election, 2015

Asturian regional election, 2015
Asturias
24 May 2015
All 45 seats in the General Junta of the Principality of Asturias
23 seats needed for a majority
Opinion polls
Registered 988,057 0.2%
Turnout 551,192 (55.8%)
4.7 pp

  First party Second party Third party
 
Leader Javier Fernández Mercedes Fernández Emilio León
Party PSOE PP Podemos
Leader since 23 October 2010 14 February 2012 1 April 2015
Leader's seat Central Central Central
Last election 17 seats, 32.1% 10 seats, 21.5% Did not contest
Seats won 14 11 9
Seat change 3 1 9
Popular vote 143,851 117,319 103,571
Percentage 26.5% 21.6% 19.1%
Swing 5.6 pp 0.8 pp New party
  Fourth party Fifth party Sixth party
 
Leader Gaspar Llamazares Cristina Coto Nicanor García
Party IU/IX FAC C's
Leader since 24 January 2015 21 February 2015 18 April 2015
Leader's seat Central Central Central
Last election 5 seats, 13.8% 12 seats, 24.8% Did not contest
Seats won 5 3 3
Seat change 0 9 3
Popular vote 64,868 44,480 38,687
Percentage 11.9% 8.2% 7.1%
Swing 1.9 pp 16.6 pp New party

Constituency results map for the General Junta of the Principality of Asturias
President before election

Javier Fernández
PSOE

 Elected President

Javier Fernández
PSOE

The 2015 Asturian regional election was held on Sunday, 24 May 2015, to elect the 10th General Junta of the Principality of Asturias. All 45 seats in the General Junta were up for election. The election was held simultaneously with regional elections in 12 other autonomous communities and local elections all throughout Spain.

Final results showed the Asturian Socialist Federation (FSA–PSOE) with 26.5% of the vote (14 seats), the People's Party (PP) in second with 21.6% (11 seats) and newly created Podemos (Spanish for "We can") in a close third with 19.1% (9 seats). The Asturias Forum (FAC), which had ruled the community in the 2011–12 period, saw a dramatic loss of support, falling to fifth place with 8.2% and 3 seats, overcame by a stagnant United Left (IU/IX) and in a draw with up-and-coming Citizens (C's).

Socialist leader Javier Fernández was able to retain the regional government thanks to the support of United Left, after PP and FAC joined their votes against the PSOE and with Podemos supporting its own candidate.

Background

Following the 2012 election, regional PSOE leader Javier Fernández was able to be elected as President of Asturias thanks to a confidence and supply agreement with both IU-IX and UPyD. However, in November 2013 both parties announced they were withdrawing support from the government after the PSOE voted down a proposal to reform the autonomous community's electoral law (including, among other things, a removal of the three district-division of the Principality), leaving the regional government in minority.[1][2] In order to prevent a parliamentary deadlock, however, the PSOE unexpectedly reached an agreement with the PP in order to obtain its parliamentary support to avoid political instability,[3][4][5] in what was dubbed by opponents as the duerno agreement.[6]

Incumbent Socialist Javier Fernández announced his intention to run for re-election to a second term in office, being chosen as his party's candidate without opposition.[7] Opposition leader Francisco Álvarez-Cascos announced on 12 February 2015 that he would not stand again as Asturias Forum's candidate,[8] with Cristina Coto being elected as the party's candidate and leader the following month.[9][10] Mercedes Fernández was elected as People's Party candidate for a second consecutive time,[11] while Gaspar Llamazares was proclaimed as the candidate for United Left after a primary election held on 24 January 2015.[12]

Finally, Ignacio Prendes, the only deputy of Union, Progress and Democracy, was expelled from the party and will contest as the candidate of Citizens (C's).[13] Adán Fernández will substitute him as the candidate of the party.[14]

The election will be influenced by the surge of two rising parties in opinion polls: Podemos (Spanish for We can), a left-wing party created in January 2014 to contest the 2014 European Parliament election and whose success brough it to establish itself as a fully-fledged party at the national level, and centrist Citizens (C's), whose rise in opinion polls early in 2015 and its success in the 2015 Andalusian election has brought it at the center of media attention. Emilio León will stand as Podemos' candidate after being elected in a primary election process held during the last weeks of March,[15] Citizens will also run in the election,[16] despite an early controversy resulted in the resignation of the former party's candidate Francisco Gambarte and the party staff considering whether to stand or not in the region.[17] Nicanor García will be the candidate, while Ignacio Prendes, expelled from UPyD, will be the second person in the list.[18]

On April 21, it was confirmed that 19 parties will take part in the election.[19]

Electoral system

The 45 members of the General Junta of the Principality of Asturias were elected using the D'Hondt method and a closed list proportional representation, with a threshold of 3 per 100 of valid votes—which included blank ballots—being applied in each constituency. Parties not reaching the threshold were not taken into consideration for seat distribution. Additionally, the use of the D'Hondt method might result in an effective threshold over three percent, dependant on the district magnitude.[20] Seats were allocated to constituencies, which were established by law to comprise the following municipalities:

Each constituency was entitled to an initial minimum of two seats, with the remaining 39 allocated among the constituencies in proportion to their populations.[21][22] Voting was on the basis of universal suffrage, with all nationals over eighteen, registered in Asturias and in full enjoyment of all political rights entitled to vote. Additionally, Asturians abroad were required to apply for voting before being permitted to vote, a system known as "begged" or expat vote (Spanish: Voto rogado).[23]

The electoral law provided that parties, federations, coalitions and groupings of electors were allowed to present lists of candidates. However, groupings of electors were required to secure at least the signature of 1 per 100 of the electors entered in electoral register of the constituency for which they were seeking election. Electors were barred from signing for more than one list of candidates. Concurrently, parties and federations intending to enter in coalition to take part jointly at an election were required to inform the relevant Electoral Commission within ten days from the election call.[21][24][25]

Elections were fixed for the fourth Sunday of May every four years. The President of the Principality of Asturias had the prerogative to dissolve the General Junta and call a snap election, provided that no motion of no confidence was in process, no nationwide election was due and some time requirements were met—namely, that dissolution did not occur either during the first legislative session or within the legislature's last year ahead of its scheduled expiry, nor before one year had elapsed since a previous dissolution under this procedure—. Additionally, the chamber was to be automatically dissolved and a new election called if an investiture process failed to elect a regional President within a two-month period from the first ballot. Any snap election held as a result of these circumstances would not alter the period to the next ordinary election, with elected deputies merely serving out what remained of their four-year terms.[22][24]

Opinion polls

Individual poll results are listed in the table below in reverse chronological order, showing the most recent first, and using the date the survey's fieldwork was done, as opposed to the date of publication. If that date is unknown, the date of publication is given instead. The highest percentage figure in each polling survey is displayed with its background shaded in the leading party's colour. In the instance of a tie, the figures with the highest percentages are shaded. Seat projections are displayed in bold and in a different font. The lead column on the right shows the percentage-point difference between the two parties with the highest figures. 23 seats were required for an absolute majority in the General Junta of the Principality of Asturias.

Color key:

  Exit poll

Results

Overall

← Summary of the 24 May 2015 General Junta of the Principality of Asturias election results →
Parties and coalitions Popular vote Seats
Votes % ±pp Won +/−
Spanish Socialist Workers' Party (PSOE) 143,851 26.48 –5.62 14 –3
People's Party (PP) 117,319 21.59 +0.06 11 +1
We Can (Podemos) 103,571 19.06 New 9 +9
United Left of Asturias (IU/IX) 64,868 11.94 –1.83 5 ±0
Asturias Forum (FAC) 44,480 8.19 –16.61 3 –9
Citizens–Party of the Citizenry (C's) 38,687 7.12 New 3 +3
Blank ballots 10,271 1.89 +0.46
Total 543,345 100.00 45 ±0
Valid votes 543,345 98.58 –0.57
Invalid votes 7,847 1.42 +0.57
Votes cast / turnout 551,192 55.79 +4.64
Abstentions 436,865 44.21 –4.64
Registered voters 988,057
Source(s): General Junta of the Principality of Asturias, SADEI, historiaelectoral.com
Popular vote
PSOE
  
 26.48%
PP
  
 21.59%
Podemos
  
 19.06%
IU/IX
  
 11.94%
FAC
  
 8.19%
C's
  
 7.12%
Others
  
 3.74%
Blank ballots
  
 1.89%
Seats
PSOE
  
 31.11%
PP
  
 24.44%
Podemos
  
 20.00%
IU/IX
  
 11.11%
FAC
  
 6.67%
C's
  
 6.67%

Distribution by constituency

Constituency PSOE PP Podemos IU/IX FAC C's
% S % S % S % S % S % S
Central 24.6 9 20.4 7 20.3 7 13.1 5 7.8 3 7.9 3
Eastern 33.0 2 26.9 2 13.2 1 6.0 − 12.3 − 4.1 −
Western 35.5 3 26.6 2 14.2 1 7.7 − 8.3 − 3.3 −
Total 26.5 14 21.6 11 19.1 9 11.9 5 8.2 3 7.1 3

Opinion poll sources

  1. ↑ "Encuestas y resultados - elecciones autonómicas y municipales del 24 de mayo de 2015". GAD3 (in Spanish). 28 May 2015.
  2. ↑ "Fragmentación a izquierda y derecha". ABC (in Spanish). 22 May 2015.
  3. ↑ "Rajoy cree un éxito ser el más votado aunque pierda plazas simbólicas". ABC (in Spanish). 17 May 2015.
  4. ↑ "El PSOE gana en Asturias con 14-15 diputados y Ciudadanos irrumpe por encima de Podemos". La Nueva España (in Spanish). 17 May 2015.
  5. ↑ "Pronóstico electoral en el Principado". La Nueva España (in Spanish). 17 May 2015.
  6. ↑ "Principado de Asturias: El feudo socialista decae y da paso a un mosaico de fuerzas políticas". La Razón (in Spanish). 17 May 2015.
  7. ↑ "Principado de Asturias" (PDF). La Razón (in Spanish). 17 May 2015.
  8. ↑ "Encuesta sobre la situación política en Asturias en el marco de las elecciones autonómicas del 24 de Mayo de 2015" (PDF). Podemos Asturias (in Spanish). 16 May 2015. Archived from the original on 18 May 2015.
  9. ↑ "Preelectoral elecciones autonómicas 2015. Principado de Asturias (Estudio nº 3067. Marzo-abril 2015)" (PDF). CIS (in Spanish). 7 May 2015.
  10. ↑ "El PP seguirá siendo el más votado en las CC AA pese a la caída en apoyos". La Razón (in Spanish). 20 April 2015.
  11. ↑ "Principado de Asturias: El PSOE repite... o no". La Razón (in Spanish). 20 April 2015.
  12. ↑ "Principado de Asturias" (PDF). La Razón (in Spanish). 20 April 2015.
  13. ↑ "El PP ganaría de nuevo en 9 de 13 autonomías". La Razón (in Spanish). 28 March 2015.
  14. ↑ "Barómetro Diciembre 2014: Asturias necesitará un "pacto" de gobierno". eldigitaldeasturias.com (in Spanish). 5 December 2014.
  15. ↑ "P. DE ASTURIAS, Noviembre 2014. Sondeo 'El Digital de Asturias'". Electograph (in Spanish). 11 December 2014.
  16. ↑ "El reparto del poder territorial en España en 2015" (PDF). desarrollando-ideas.com (in Spanish). 31 October 2014.
  17. ↑ "El PP de Asturias a la baja, Pablo Iglesias "esperanza ciudadana", Cascos político asturiano con mejor nota". eldigitaldeasturias.com (in Spanish). 3 November 2014.
  18. ↑ "P. DE ASTURIAS, Agosto 2014. Asturbarómetro". Electograph (in Spanish). 7 November 2014.
  19. ↑ "Una encuesta dibuja un inédito panorama político en Asturias de cara a las autonómicas". RTPA (in Spanish). 23 July 2014.
  20. ↑ "Proyección del resultado de las europeas en los parlamentos autonómicos". El País (in Spanish). 31 May 2014.
  21. ↑ "Las grietas vuelven a asomar en el PP". El Comercio (in Spanish). 12 January 2014.
  22. ↑ "BCM Asturias. Sondeo Electoral elecciones autonómicas por circunscripciones. Resultados oleada de Noviembre 2013". SyM Consulting (in Spanish). 3 December 2013.
  23. ↑ "PRINCIPADO DE ASTURIAS, Noviembre 2013. SyM Consulting". Electograph (in Spanish). 15 December 2013.
  24. ↑ "El PP ganaría de nuevo en 9 de 13 autonomías". La Razón (in Spanish). 18 November 2013.
  25. ↑ "Encuesta autonómicas NC Report noviembre 2013" (PDF). La Razón (in Spanish). 18 November 2013.
  26. ↑ "La encuesta electoral que el Partido Popular oculta a los asturianos". La Nueva España (in Spanish). 11 May 2013.
  27. ↑ "El PP se hunde, y el PSOE y Foro Asturias empatarían si hoy se celebrasen elecciones". AsturiasDiario (in Spanish). 11 May 2013.
  28. ↑ "Necesitaría pactos para gobernar en Navarra, Asturias, Canarias, Extremadura y Aragón". La Razón (in Spanish). 13 May 2013.
  29. ↑ "El PP ganaría en la mayoría de las autonomías (La Razón)". Electómetro (in Spanish). 13 May 2013. Archived from the original on 4 March 2016.

References

  1. ↑ "UPyD breaks with the PSOE in Asturias and leaves the regional government in minority" (in Spanish). El País. 2013-11-01.
  2. ↑ "UPyD and IU announce the rupture of the legislature pact with the PSOE in Asturias" (in Spanish). ABC. 2013-11-01.
  3. ↑ "PSOE switches allies and relies on the PP to keep governing Asturias" (in Spanish). El Confidencial. 2014-03-19.
  4. ↑ "PSOE and PP agree the budget in Asturias" (in Spanish). InfoLibre. 2014-11-17.
  5. ↑ "PSOE and PP close the legislature with an unforeseen budgetary agrement in Asturias" (in Spanish). El Comercio. 2014-12-28.
  6. ↑ "García-Pumarino denounces that the 'duerno agreement' "is more alive than ever"" (in Spanish). El Comercio. 2014-10-05.
  7. ↑ "Javier Fernández (PSOE) stand for re-election in Asturias: "I have strength, ambition and am not afraid"" (in Spanish). El Diario. 2014-09-20.
  8. ↑ "Cascos renounces to head his party's candidacy in the regional election" (in Spanish). El Comercio. 2015-02-12.
  9. ↑ "Cristina Coto will opt to relieve Álvarez-Cascos at the head of FAC" (in Spanish). El Comercio. 2015-02-16.
  10. ↑ "Cristina Coto will be Forum's President without the support from the Gijon and Siero sectors" (in Spanish). La Nueva España. 2015-02-22.
  11. ↑ "Mercedes Fernández, PP candidate to the Principality's Presidency" (in Spanish). La Nueva España. 2015-03-06.
  12. ↑ "Gaspar Llamazares elected as IU candidate to the presidency of the Principality" (in Spanish). La Nueva España. 2015-01-25.
  13. ↑ "Prendes will be the Citizens candidate after resigning to its seat for UPyD" (in Spanish). La Nueva España. 2015-04-10.
  14. ↑ "Adán Fernández, new candidate of UPyD in the Principality" (in Spanish). La Nueva España. 2015-04-18.
  15. ↑ "Emilio León, Podemos' candidate to the presidency of Asturias" (in Spanish). La Nueva España. 2015-04-01.
  16. ↑ "Uncertainty marks electoral candidacies in Asturias" (in Spanish). El Comercio. 2015-04-04.
  17. ↑ "Citizens will repeat primaries in Asturias after its candidate's renounce" (in Spanish). El Confidencial Autonómico. 2015-03-13.
  18. ↑ "Nicanor García será el candidato autonómico de Ciudadanos con Prendes como número dos" (in Spanish). El Comercio. 2015-04-18.
  19. ↑ "Los partidos que darán la batalla electoral" (in Spanish). La Nueva España. 2015-04-21.
  20. ↑ "Effective threshold in electoral systems". Trinity College, Dublin. 30 July 2012. Retrieved 22 July 2017.
  21. 1 2 General Junta of the Principality of Asturias Elections System Law of 1986, Law No. 14 of December 26, 1986 Official Gazette of the Principality of Asturias (in Spanish). Retrieved on 14 March 2017.
  22. 1 2 Statute of Autonomy for Asturias of 1981, Organic Law No. 7 of December 30, 1981 Official State Gazette (in Spanish). Retrieved on 14 March 2017.
  23. ↑ Reig Pellicer, Naiara (16 December 2015). "Spanish elections: Begging for the right to vote". cafebabel.co.uk. Retrieved 17 July 2017.
  24. 1 2 General Electoral System Organic Law of 1985, Organic Law No. 5 of June 19, 1985 Official State Gazette (in Spanish). Retrieved on 28 December 2016.
  25. ↑ "Representation of the people Institutional Act". juntaelectoralcentral.es. Central Electoral Commission. Retrieved 16 June 2017.
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