Asturian regional election, 2011

Asturian regional election, 2011
Asturias
22 May 2011
All 45 seats in the General Junta of the Principality of Asturias
23 seats needed for a majority
Opinion polls
Registered 987,305 0.6%
Turnout 609,072 (61.7%)
0.1 pp

  First party Second party Third party
 
Leader Francisco Álvarez Cascos Javier Fernández Isabel Pérez-Espinosa
Party FAC PSOE PP
Leader since 18 January 2011 23 October 2010 29 December 2010
Leader's seat Central Central Central
Last election Did not contest 21 seats, 42.0% 20 seats, 41.5%
Seats won 16 15 10
Seat change 16 6 10
Popular vote 178,031 179,619 119,767
Percentage 29.7% 29.9% 20.0%
Swing New party 12.1 pp 21.5 pp
  Fourth party
 
Leader Jesús Iglesias
Party IU–LV
Leader since 2007
Leader's seat Central
Last election 4 seats, 9.7%
Seats won 4
Seat change 0
Popular vote 61,703
Percentage 10.3%
Swing 0.6%

Constituency results map for the General Junta of the Principality of Asturias
President before election

Vicente Álvarez Areces
PSOE

 Elected President

Francisco Álvarez Cascos
FAC

The 2011 Asturian regional election was held on Sunday, 22 May 2011, to elect the 8th General Junta of the Principality of Asturias. All 45 seats in the General Junta were up for election. The election was held simultaneously with regional elections in 12 other autonomous communities and local elections all throughout Spain.

Except for the 1995-1999 legislature, the Spanish Socialist Workers' Party (PSOE) had governed the autonomous community since the first election in 1983.[1] However, in the 2011 election, the Asturias Forum (FAC), a split from the People's Party (PP), won the most seats despite PSOE obtaining more votes. The FAC was established on 19 January 2011 by Francisco Álvarez Cascos, former Deputy Prime Minister of Spain, after failing to be selected as PP's candidate. FAC gains came at the expense of the PP and the PSOE, but while PSOE's collapse had been predicted in early opinion polls, the PP had been widely expected to make strong gains before Cascos' split, instead scoring the worst result of its history. The Asturian Bloc (BA) had terminated its coalition with United Left (IU) and the Asturian Greens (LVA) in August 2010 and run separately, failing to win any seats. IU and the Greens maintained their coalition and retained their existing four seats.[1]

Vicente Álvarez Areces, incumbent since 1999,[1] did not seek re-election. As in Asturias it is not allowed for parties to vote against a proposed presidential candidate (instead being forced to either abstain or vote a candidate of their own), on July 2011, the PSOE and PP announced that they would abstain in the investiture voting of Álvarez Cascos, who thus became the new President at the head of a minority administration.[2]

The resulting government, however, was not able to gather legislative support to approve its 2012 regional budget, with both PP and PSOE blocking the vote, resulting in a fresh election being held in March 2012.

Background

On 7 July 2010, the President of Asturias, Vicente Álvarez Areces, announced that he would not seek re-election.[3] Following the announcement, the General Secretary of the Asturian Socialist Federation (FSA), PSOE's regional branch, declared that he would seek the nomination to become the presidential candidate.[4] His candidacy, supported by the FSA Executive Committee, was ratified by the PSOE Federal Committee on 23 October 2010.[5]

United Left, coalition partner of the PSOE, decided that their regional General Coordinator, Jesús Sánchez Iglesias, would be its presidential candidate for a second consecutive time. His candidacy was supported by the IU Asturian Presidency in November 2010[6] and ratified by IU's political council in Asturias on 27 November 2010.[7]

The Asturian Bloc ended its coalition with United Left and the Greens in October 2010 and contested the election in a joint electoral list with the Asturian Nationalist Unity (UNA) under the label Bloc for Asturias-UNA: Commitment for Asturias. BA's sole sitting deputy, Rafael Palacios, was their presidential candidate.[8]

Oviedo city councillor Isabel Pérez-Espinosa was selected by the People's Party as its presidential candidate on 29 December 2010.[9] This led to a split within the Asturian PP as former Deputy Prime Minister Francisco Álvarez-Cascos had been seeking the nomination. He resigned from the PP and formed the Asturias Forum, running to the election on his own.[10]

Electoral system

The 45 members of the General Junta of the Principality of Asturias were elected using the D'Hondt method and a closed list proportional representation, with a threshold of 3 per 100 of valid votes—which included blank ballots—being applied in each constituency. Parties not reaching the threshold were not taken into consideration for seat distribution. Additionally, the use of the D'Hondt method might result in an effective threshold over three percent, dependant on the district magnitude.[11] Seats were allocated to constituencies, which were established by law to comprise the following municipalities:

Each constituency was entitled to an initial minimum of two seats, with the remaining 39 allocated among the constituencies in proportion to their populations.[12][13] Voting was on the basis of universal suffrage, with all nationals over eighteen, registered in Asturias and in full enjoyment of all political rights entitled to vote. Amendments to the electoral law in 2011 required for Asturians abroad to apply for voting before being permitted to vote, a system known as "begged" or expat vote (Spanish: Voto rogado).[14]

The electoral law provided that parties, federations, coalitions and groupings of electors were allowed to present lists of candidates. However, groupings of electors were required to secure at least the signature of 1 per 100 of the electors entered in electoral register of the constituency for which they were seeking election. Electors were barred from signing for more than one list of candidates. Concurrently, parties and federations intending to enter in coalition to take part jointly at an election were required to inform the relevant Electoral Commission within ten days from the election call.[12][15][16]

Elections were fixed for the fourth Sunday of May every four years. The President of the Principality of Asturias had the prerogative to dissolve the General Junta and call a snap election, provided that no motion of no confidence was in process, no nationwide election was due and some time requirements were met—namely, that dissolution did not occur either during the first legislative session or within the legislature's last year ahead of its scheduled expiry, nor before one year had elapsed since a previous dissolution under this procedure—. Additionally, the chamber was to be automatically dissolved and a new election called if an investiture process failed to elect a regional President within a two-month period from the first ballot. Any snap election held as a result of these circumstances would not alter the period to the next ordinary election, with elected deputies merely serving out what remained of their four-year terms.[13][15]

Opinion polls

Vote

Poll results are listed in the table below in reverse chronological order, showing the most recent first. The highest percentage figure in each polling survey is displayed in bold, and the background shaded in the leading party's colour. In the instance that there is a tie, then no figure is shaded. The lead column on the right shows the percentage-point difference between the two parties with the highest figures. Poll results use the date the survey's fieldwork was done, as opposed to the date of publication. However, if such date is unknown, the date of publication will be given instead.

Seat projections

Opinion polls showing seat projections are displayed in the table below. The highest seat figures in each polling survey have their background shaded in the leading party's colour. In the instance that there is a tie, then no figure is shaded. 23 seats were required for an absolute majority in the General Junta of the Principality of Asturias.

Results

Overall

← Summary of the 22 May 2011 General Junta of the Principality of Asturias election results →
Parties and coalitions Popular vote Seats
Votes % ±pp Won +/−
Spanish Socialist Workers' Party (PSOE) 179,619 29.92 –12.12 15 –6
Asturias Forum (FAC) 178,031 29.66 New 16 +16
People's Party (PP) 119,767 19.95 –21.55 10 –10
United Left of Asturias–The Greens (IU–LV) 61,703 10.28 +0.59 4 ±0
Union, Progress and Democracy (UPyD) 14,640 2.44 New 0 ±0
Independents of Asturias (IDEAS) 6,380 1.06 New 0 ±0
Bloc for Asturias–Asturian Nationalist Unity (BA–UNA) 6,191 1.03 New 0 ±0
Blank ballots 15,611 2.60 +0.19
Total 600,274 100.00 45 ±0
Valid votes 600,274 98.56 –0.64
Invalid votes 8,798 1.44 +0.64
Votes cast / turnout 609,072 61.69 +0.10
Abstentions 378,233 38.31 –0.10
Registered voters 987,305
Source(s): General Junta of the Principality of Asturias, SADEI, historiaelectoral.com
Popular vote
PSOE
  
 29.92%
FAC
  
 29.66%
PP
  
 19.95%
IU–LV
  
 10.28%
UPyD
  
 2.44%
IDEAS
  
 1.06%
BA–UNA
  
 1.03%
Others
  
 3.05%
Blank ballots
  
 2.60%
Seats
FAC
  
 35.56%
PSOE
  
 33.33%
PP
  
 22.22%
IU–LV
  
 8.89%

Distribution by constituency

Constituency PSOE FAC PP IU–LV
% S % S % S % S
Central 28.4 11 30.1 12 19.1 7 11.2 4
Eastern 35.3 2 33.3 2 20.3 1 5.1 −
Western 36.6 2 24.6 2 25.1 2 7.8 −
Total 29.9 15 29.7 16 20.0 10 10.3 4

Notes

  1. 1 2 This survey shows its poll results projected over candidacy votes (that is, votes going for political parties, excluding blank ballots). The vote percentage in the official election is calculated including blank ballots into the estimation. In order to obtain data comparable to both the official results as well as those of other surveys, a rule of three has been applied to the survey projections, with the results of the calculation being shown instead.

References

  1. 1 2 3 Asturias election results historiaelectoral.com, accessed 2011-04-23
  2. ↑ "Cascos will have to govern Asturias in minority" (in Spanish). El País. 2011-07-09.
  3. ↑ "Socialist Álvarez Areces renounces to stand for re-election to the Asturian Government after three terms" (in Spanish). El País. 2010-07-08.
  4. ↑ "Javier Fernández, the Socialist candidate" (in Spanish). El Comercio. 2010-07-20.
  5. ↑ "Javier Fernández, ratified as PSOE candidate" (in Spanish). La Nueva España. 2010-07-20.
  6. ↑ "IU proposes Jesús Iglesias to repeat as candidate" (in Spanish). La Nueva España. 2010-11-25.
  7. ↑ "Iglesias: The budget guarantees social benefits" (in Spanish). La Nueva España. 2010-11-28.
  8. ↑ "Rafael Palacios will head the joint list of Bloc for Asturias and UNA" (in Spanish). La Nueva España. 2011-02-02.
  9. ↑ "The PP names Isabel Pérez-Espinosa candidate in Asturias and discards Álvarez Cascos" (in Spanish). RTVE. 2010-12-30.
  10. ↑ "Álvarez-Cascos, proclaimed candidate to the Principality's Presidency" (in Spanish). La Nueva España. 2011-03-29.
  11. ↑ "Effective threshold in electoral systems". Trinity College, Dublin. 30 July 2012. Retrieved 22 July 2017.
  12. 1 2 General Junta of the Principality of Asturias Elections System Law of 1986, Law No. 14 of December 26, 1986 Official Gazette of the Principality of Asturias (in Spanish). Retrieved on 14 March 2017.
  13. 1 2 Statute of Autonomy for Asturias of 1981, Organic Law No. 7 of December 30, 1981 Official State Gazette (in Spanish). Retrieved on 14 March 2017.
  14. ↑ Reig Pellicer, Naiara (16 December 2015). "Spanish elections: Begging for the right to vote". cafebabel.co.uk. Retrieved 17 July 2017.
  15. 1 2 General Electoral System Organic Law of 1985, Organic Law No. 5 of June 19, 1985 Official State Gazette (in Spanish). Retrieved on 28 December 2016.
  16. ↑ "Representation of the people Institutional Act". juntaelectoralcentral.es. Central Electoral Commission. Retrieved 16 June 2017.
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