Emerging markets

An emerging market is a country that has some characteristics of a developed market, but does not meet standards to be a developed market.[1] This includes countries that may become developed markets in the future or were in the past.[2] The term "frontier market" is used for developing countries with slower economies than "emerging".[3][4] The economies of China and India are considered to be the largest.[5] According to The Economist, many people find the term outdated, but no new term has gained traction.[6] Emerging market hedge fund capital reached a record new level in the first quarter of 2011 of $121 billion.[7] The four largest emerging and developing economies by either nominal or PPP-adjusted GDP are the BRIC countries (Brazil, Russia, India and China). The next five largest markets are South Korea (though, considered a developed market), Mexico, Indonesia, Turkey, and Saudi Arabia. Iran is also considered an emerging market.[8]

Terminology

   Developing countries that are neither part of the least developed countries, nor of the newly industrialized countries

In the 1970s, "less developed countries" (LDCs) was the common term for markets that were less "developed" (by objective or subjective measures) than the developed countries such as the United States, Western Europe, and Japan. These markets were supposed to provide greater potential for profit, but also more risk from various factors like patent infringement. This term was thought by some to be politically incorrect so the emerging market label was created. The term is misleading in that there is no guarantee that a country will move from "less developed" to "more developed"; although that is the general trend in the world, countries can also move from "more developed" to "less developed".

Originally brought into fashion in the 1980s by then World Bank economist Antoine Van Agtmael,[9] the term is sometimes loosely used as a replacement for emerging economies, but really signifies a business phenomenon that is not fully described by or constrained to geography or economic strength; such countries are considered to be in a transitional phase between developing and developed status. Examples of emerging markets include many countries in Africa, most countries in Eastern Europe, some countries of Latin America, some countries in the Middle East, Russia and some countries in Southeast Asia. Emphasizing the fluid nature of the category, political scientist Ian Bremmer defines an emerging market as "a country where politics matters at least as much as economics to the markets".[10]

The research on emerging markets is diffused within management literature. While researchers including, George Haley, Vladimir Kvint, Hernando de Soto, Usha Haley, and several professors from Harvard Business School and Yale School of Management have described activity in countries such as India and China, how a market emerges is little understood.

In 2009, Dr. Kvint published this definition: "Emerging market country is a society transitioning from a dictatorship to a free-market-oriented-economy, with increasing economic freedom, gradual integration with the Global Marketplace and with other members of the GEM (Global Emerging Market), an expanding middle class, improving standards of living, social stability and tolerance, as well as an increase in cooperation with multilateral institutions"[11] In 2008 Emerging Economy Report,[12] the Center for Knowledge Societies defines Emerging Economies as those "regions of the world that are experiencing rapid informationalization under conditions of limited or partial industrialization." It appears that emerging markets lie at the intersection of non-traditional user behavior, the rise of new user groups and community adoption of products and services, and innovations in product technologies and platforms.

More critical scholars have also studied key emerging markets like Mexico and Turkey. Thomas Marois (2012, 2) argues that financial imperatives have become much more significant and has developed the idea of 'emerging finance capitalism' - an era wherein the collective interests of financial capital principally shape the logical options and choices of government and state elites over and above those of labor and popular classes.[13]

Julien Vercueil recently proposed an pragmatic definition of the "emerging economies", as distinguished from "emerging markets" coined by an approach heavily influenced by financial criteria. According to his definition, an emerging economy displays the following characteristics:[14]

  1. Intermediate income: its PPP per capita income is comprised between 10% and 75% of the average EU per capita income.
  1. Catching-up growth: during at least the last decade, it has experienced a brisk economic growth that has narrowed the income gap with advanced economies.
  1. Institutional transformations and economic opening: during the same period, it has undertaken profound institutional transformations which contributed to integrate it more deeply into the world economy. Hence, emerging economies appears to be a by-product of the current globalization.

At the beginning of the 2010s, more than 50 countries, representing 60% of the world's population and 45% of its GDP, matched these criteria.[14]:10 Among them, the BRICs.

Newly industrialized countries as of 2013. This is an intermediate category between fully developed and developing.

The term "rapidly developing economies" is being used to denote emerging markets such as The United Arab Emirates, Chile and Malaysia that are undergoing rapid growth.

In recent years, new terms have emerged to describe the largest developing countries such as BRIC that stands for Brazil, Russia, India, and China,[15] along with BRICET (BRIC + Eastern Europe and Turkey), BRICS (BRIC + South Africa), BRICM (BRIC + Mexico), MINT (Mexico, Indonesia, Nigeria and Turkey), Next Eleven (Bangladesh, Egypt, Indonesia, Iran, Mexico, Nigeria, Pakistan, the Philippines, South Korea, Turkey, and Vietnam) and CIVETS (Colombia, Indonesia, Vietnam, Egypt, Turkey and South Africa).[16] These countries do not share any common agenda, but some experts believe that they are enjoying an increasing role in the world economy and on political platforms.

It is difficult to make an exact list of emerging (or developed) markets; the best guides tend to be investment information sources like EMIS, (a Euromoney Institutional Investor Company) and The Economist or market index makers (such as Morgan Stanley Capital International). These sources are well-informed, but the nature of investment information sources leads to two potential problems. One is an element of historicity; markets may be maintained in an index for continuity, even if the countries have since developed past the emerging market phase. Possible examples of this are South Korea[17] and Taiwan. A second is the simplification inherent in making an index; small countries, or countries with limited market liquidity are often not considered, with their larger neighbours considered an appropriate stand-in.

In an Opalesque.TV video, hedge fund manager Jonathan Binder discusses the current and future relevance of the term "emerging markets" in the financial world. Binder says that in the future investors will not necessarily think of the traditional classifications of "G10" (or G7) versus "emerging markets". Instead, people should look at the world as countries that are fiscally responsible and countries that are not. Whether that country is in Europe or in South America should make no difference, making the traditional "blocs" of categorization irrelevant. Guégan et al. (2014) also discuss the relevance of the terminology "emerging country" comparing the credit worthiness of so-called emerging countries to so-called developed countries. According to their analysis, depending on the criteria used, the term may not always be appropriate.[18]

The 10 Big Emerging Markets (BEM) economies are (alphabetically ordered): Argentina, Brazil, China, India, Indonesia, Mexico, Poland, South Africa, South Korea and Turkey.[19] Egypt, Iran, Nigeria, Pakistan, Russia, Saudi Arabia, Taiwan, and Thailand are other major emerging markets.

Newly industrialized countries are emerging markets whose economies have not yet reached developed status but have, in a macroeconomic sense, outpaced their developing counterparts.

Individual investors can invest in emerging markets by buying into emerging markets or global funds. If they want to pick single stocks or make their own bets they can do it either through ADRs (American depositor Receipts - stocks of foreign companies that trade on US stock exchanges) or through exchange traded funds (exchange traded funds or ETFs hold basket of stocks). The exchange traded funds can be focused on a particular country (e.g., China, India) or region (e.g., Asia-Pacific, Latin America).

Commonly listed

Various sources list countries as "emerging economies" as indicated by the table below.

A few countries appear in every list (BRICS, Mexico, Turkey). Indonesia and Turkey are categorized with Mexico and Nigeria as part of the MINT economies. While there are no commonly agreed upon parameters on which the countries can be classified as "Emerging Economies", several firms have developed detailed methodologies to identify the top performing emerging economies every year[20]

Emerging Markets by Each Group of Analysts
Country IMF[21] BRICS+ Next Eleven FTSE[22] MSCI[23] S&P[24] EM bond index[25] Dow Jones[24] Russell[26] Columbia University EMGP[27]
 Argentina Green tick Green tick Green tick
 Bangladesh Green tick Green tick Green tick Green tick
 Brazil Green tick Green tick Green tick Green tick Green tick Green tick Green tick Green tick Green tick
 Bulgaria Green tick
 Chile Green tick Green tick Green tick Green tick Green tick Green tick Green tick Green tick
 China Green tick Green tick Green tick Green tick Green tick Green tick Green tick Green tick Green tick
 Colombia Green tick Green tick Green tick Green tick Green tick Green tick Green tick Green tick
 Czech Republic Green tick Green tick Green tick Green tick Green tick Green tick
 Egypt Green tick Green tick Green tick Green tick Green tick Green tick Green tick
 Greece Green tick Green tick Green tick Green tick Green tick
 Hungary Green tick Green tick Green tick Green tick Green tick Green tick Green tick Green tick
 India Green tick Green tick Green tick Green tick Green tick Green tick Green tick Green tick Green tick
 Indonesia Green tick Green tick Green tick Green tick Green tick Green tick Green tick Green tick
 Iran Green tick
 Israel Green tick Green tick
 Malaysia Green tick Green tick Green tick Green tick Green tick Green tick Green tick
 Mauritius Green tick
 Mexico Green tick Green tick Green tick Green tick Green tick Green tick Green tick Green tick Green tick
 Nigeria Green tick Green tick
 Oman Green tick
 Pakistan Green tick Green tick Green tick Green tick Green tick
 Peru Green tick Green tick Green tick Green tick Green tick Green tick Green tick
 Philippines Green tick Green tick Green tick Green tick Green tick Green tick Green tick Green tick Green tick
 Poland Green tick Green tick Green tick Green tick Green tick Green tick Green tick Green tick
 Qatar Green tick Green tick Green tick
 Romania Green tick Green tick
 Russia Green tick Green tick Green tick Green tick Green tick Green tick Green tick Green tick Green tick
 Slovenia Green tick
 South Africa Green tick Green tick Green tick Green tick Green tick Green tick Green tick Green tick Green tick
 South Korea Green tick Green tick Green tick Green tick
 Taiwan Green tick Green tick Green tick Green tick Green tick Green tick Green tick
 Thailand Green tick Green tick Green tick Green tick Green tick Green tick Green tick Green tick
 Turkey Green tick Green tick Green tick Green tick Green tick Green tick Green tick Green tick Green tick
 Ukraine Green tick Green tick
 United Arab Emirates Green tick Green tick Green tick Green tick Green tick Green tick
 Venezuela Green tick Green tick
 Vietnam Green tick Green tick

BBVA Research

In November 2010, BBVA Research introduced a new economic concept, to identify a key emerging markets.[28] This classification is divided in two set of developing economies.

As of March 2014, the groupings are as follows:

EAGLEs (emerging and growth-leading economies): Expected Incremental GDP in the next 10 years to be larger than the average of the G7 economies, excluding the US.

NEST: Expected Incremental GDP in the next decade to be lower than the average of the G6 economies (G7 excluding the US) but higher than Italy’s.

Other emerging markets[29]

Emerging Market Bond Index Global

The Emerging Market Bond Index Global (EMBI Global) by J.P. Morgan was the first comprehensive EM sovereign index in the market, after the EMBI+. It provides full coverage of the EM asset class with representative countries, investable instruments (sovereign and quasi-sovereign), and transparent rules. The EMBI Global includes only USD-denominated emerging markets sovereign bonds and uses a traditional, market capitalization weighted method for country allocation.[30] As of March end 2016, the EMBI Global's market capitalization was $692.3bn.[25]

For country inclusion, a country’s GNI per capita must be below the Index Income Ceiling (IIC) for three consecutive years to be eligible for inclusion to the EMBI Global. J.P. Morgan defines the Index Income Ceiling (IIC) as the GNI per capita level that is adjusted every year by the growth rate of the World GNI per capita, Atlas method (current US$), provided by the World Bank annually. An existing country may be considered for removal from the index if its GNI per capita is above the Index Income Ceiling (IIC) for three consecutive years as well as the country’s long term foreign currency sovereign credit rating (the available ratings from all three agencies: S&P, Moody’s & Fitch) is A-/A3/A- (inclusive) or above for three consecutive years.[30]

J.P. Morgan has introduced what is called an “Index Income Ceiling” (IIC), defined as the income level that is adjusted every year by the growth rate of the World GNI per capita, provided by the World Bank as “GNI per capita, Atlas method (current US$) annually.” Once a country has GNI per capita below or above the IIC level for three consecutive years, the country eligibility will be determined.[30]

Emerging Markets Index

The Emerging Markets Index by MasterCard is a list of the top 65 cities in emerging markets. The following countries had cities featured on the list (as of 2008):

Global Growth Generators

"Global Growth Generators", or 3G (countries), is an alternative classification determined by Citigroup analysts as being countries with the most promising growth prospects for 2010-2050. These consist of Indonesia, Egypt, seven other emerging countries, and two countries not previously listed before, specifically Iraq and Mongolia. There has been disagreement about the reclassification of these countries, among others, for the purpose of acronym creation as was seen with the BRICS.

Estimating Demand in Emerging Markets

Estimating the demand for products or services in emerging markets and developing economies can be complex and challenging for managers. These countries have unique commercial environments and may be limited in terms of reliable data, market research firms, and trained interviewers. Consumers in some of these countries may consider surveys an invasion of privacy.[31] Survey respondents may try to please researchers by telling them what they want to hear rather than providing honest answers to their questions. However some companies have dedicated their entire business units for understanding the dynamics of emerging markets owing to their peculiarity[32]

Economy

The following table lists the 20 largest countries by GDP (nominal) and GDP (PPP) in their respective peak year.

Rank Country GDP (nominal, Peak Year)
millions of USD
Peak Year
1  China 11,795,297 2017
2  Brazil 2,614,027 2011
3  India 2,454,458 2017
4  Russia 2,230,624 2013
5  South Korea 1,498,074 2017
6  Mexico 1,298,404 2014
7  Indonesia 1,020,515 2017
8  Turkey 950,328 2013
9  Saudi Arabia 756,350 2014
10  Argentina 631,621 2015
11  Iran 570,039 2011
12  Nigeria 568,496 2014
13  Taiwan 566,757 2017
14  Poland 545,053 2014
15  Thailand 432,898 2017
16  South Africa 416,879 2011
17  Egypt 408,045 2017
18  United Arab Emirates 407,210 2017
19  Colombia 380,170 2013
20  Greece 356,140 2008
Rank Country GDP (PPP, Peak Year)
millions of USD
Peak Year
1  China 23,194,411 2017
2  India 9,489,302 2017
3  Russia 3,938,001 2017
4  Brazil 3,306,570 2014
5  Indonesia 3,257,123 2017
6  Mexico 2,406,199 2017
7  Turkey 2,082,079 2017
8  South Korea 2,029,706 2017
9  Saudi Arabia 1,796,205 2017
10  Iran 1,535,491 2017
11  Thailand 1,226,407 2017
12  Egypt 1,197,967 2017
13  Taiwan 1,177,052 2017
14  Nigeria 1,124,627 2017
15  Poland 1,114,105 2017
16  Pakistan 1,060,569 2017
17  Malaysia 922,057 2017
18  Argentina 912,816 2017
19  Philippines 878,980 2017
20  South Africa 761,926 2017

See also

References

  1. "MSCI Market Classification Framework" (PDF).
  2. "Greece First Developed Market Cut to Emerging at MSCI - Bloomberg".
  3. MSCI will downgrade Argentina to frontier market - MarketWatch MarketWatch
  4. Russia Faces Specter of Index Demotion…Again - Yahoo Finance
  5. "Emerging Economies and the Transformation of International Business" By Subhash Chandra Jain. Edward Elgar Publishing, 2006 p. 384.
  6. "Acronyms BRIC out all over". The Economist. The Economist. September 18, 2008. Retrieved April 14, 2011.
  7. http://www.business-standard.com/india/news/brics-is-passe-time-now-for-%5C3g%5C-citi/126725/on
  8. "Iran-US Rapprochement: Historic Opportunities Beckon". -Business Monitor International. January 10, 2014. Archived from the original on March 23, 2014.
  9. FT.com / Columnists / John Authers - The Long View: How adventurous are emerging markets?
  10. Kvint, Vladimir (2009). The Global Emerging Market: Strategic Management and Economics. New York, London: Routledge.
  11. Emerging Economy Report
  12. Marois, Thomas (2012). States, Banks and Crisis: Emerging Finance Capitalism in Mexico and Turkey. Cheltenham, Gloucestershire, UK: Edward Elgar.
  13. 1 2 Vercueil, Julien: "Les pays émergents. Brésil - Russie - Inde - Chine... Mutations économiques et nouveaux défis " (Emerging Countries. Brazil - Russia - India - China.. Economic change and new challenges", in French). Paris: Bréal, 3rd Edition, 2012, 232 p.
  14. Five Years of China’s WTO Membership. EU and US Perspectives on China’s Compliance with Transparency Commitments and the Transitional Review Mechanism, Legal Issues of Economic Integration, Kluwer Law International, Volume 33, Number 3, pp. 263-304, 2006. by Paolo Farah
  15. "After BRICs, look to CIVETS for growth - HSBC CEO"
  16. Classified by FTSE as a developed market.
  17. Guégan, D.; Hassani, B.K.; Zhao, X. (2014). "Emerging Countries Sovereign Rating Adjustment using Market Information: Impact on Financial Institutions Investment Decisions". In El Hedi Arouri, M.; Boubaker, S.; Khuong Nguyen, D. Emerging Markets and the Global Economy: A Handbook. Oxford, UK: Academic Press. pp. 17–49.
  18. "The Big Ten". Retrieved 13 February 2015.
  19. "Boston Analytics - Pathways to identifying top performing Emerging Markets".
  20. As of October, 2015. http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/weo/2015/02/pdf/text.pdf
  21. Advanced and Secondary Emerging Markets listed at: "FTSE Annual Country Classification Review" (PDF). FTSE Group. September 2014. Retrieved 2015-02-04.
  22. "MSCI Emerging Markets Indexes". Retrieved 2015-02-02.
  23. 1 2 http://www.spindices.com/documents/index-news-and-announcements/20131030-spdji-country-classification-results.pdf
  24. 1 2 J.P. Morgan (April 1, 2016). "Emerging Markets Bond Index Monitor March 2016". J.P. Morgan. Retrieved April 1, 2016.
  25. "Russell construction methodology" (PDF). October 2014. Retrieved 2015-02-02.
  26. "Emerging Market Global Players (EMGP)". Retrieved 2015-02-02.
  27. https://www.bbvaresearch.com/KETD/fbin/mult/2014_EAGLEs_Economic_Outllok-Annual_tcm348-437158.pdf?ts=3132014
  28. EAGLEs_Outlook_Annual_Report_2012 (20 February 2012), page 9
  29. 1 2 3 J.P. Morgan (2015). EMBI Global and EMBI Global Diversified Rules and Methodology. J.P. Morgan. pp. 10 pp.
  30. Cavusgil, Tamer (2008). International business: strategy, management, and the new realities. Pearson Prentice Hall. ISBN 0-13-173860-7.
  31. "Boston Analytics - Doing Business in Emerging Markets Framework".

Sources

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