Andalusian regional election, 2008

9 March 2008

All 109 seats in the Parliament of Andalusia
55 seats needed for a majority

Opinion polls

Registered

6,231,087

3.0%

Turnout

4,528,271 (72.7%)

2.0 pp

	First party	Second party	Third party

Leader	Manuel Chaves	Javier Arenas	Diego Valderas
Party	PSOE–A	PP	IULV–CA
Leader since	19 April 1990	18 April 2004	10 October 2000
Leader's seat	Cádiz	Almería	Huelva
Last election	61 seats, 50.4%	37 seats, 31.8%	6 seats, 7.5%
Seats won	56	47	6
Seat change	5	10	0
Popular vote	2,178,296	1,730,154	317,562
Percentage	48.4%	38.5%	7.1%
Swing	2.0 pp	6.7 pp	0.4 pp

Constituency results map for the Parliament of Andalusia

President before election

Manuel Chaves
PSOE–A

Elected President

Manuel Chaves
PSOE–A

The 2008 Andalusian regional election was held on Sunday, 9 March 2008, to elect the 8th Parliament of the Autonomous Community of Andalusia. All 109 seats in the Parliament were up for election. The election was held simultaneously with the 2008 Spanish general election.

Incumbent President Manuel Chaves from the Spanish Socialist Workers' Party (PSOE–A) was re-elected for a sixth term in office with a slightly reduced majority. Final results showed a major breakthrough by the People's Party (PP), which gained 10 seats from 37 to 47 and scored its best result in the community at the time. United Left (IULV–CA) remained stagnant with 6 seasts, whereas the Andalusian Party (PA) suffered a major drop in support and failed to enter the regional parliament for the first time.

Overview

The Parliament of Andalusia was the unicameral legislature of Andalusia at the time of the 2008 election. Legislative initiative for those areas of responsibility attributed to the regional government belonged to this chamber, which also had the attribution of granting or revoking confidence from the President of Andalusia.

The President had the ability to dissolve the chamber at any given time and call a snap election. Additionally, the Parliament's dissolution was automatically triggered if investiture attempts failed to elect a regional President within a two-month period from the first ballot.^[1]

Electoral system

Voting was on the basis of universal suffrage, with all residents over eighteen and in the full enjoyment of all political rights entitled to vote. Concurrently, residents meeting the previous criteria and not involved in any cause of ineligibility were eligible for the Parliament. Groups of electors were required to obtain the signatures of at least 1% of registered electors in a particular district in order to be able to field candidates.

All 109 Parliament seats were allocated to eight multi-member districts—each constituency corresponding to a province—using the D'Hondt method and a closed list proportional representation. Each district was entitled to an initial minimum of eight seats, with the remaining 45 seats allocated among the eight provinces in proportion to their populations on the condition that the number of seats in each district did not exceed two times those of any other. A threshold of 3% of valid votes—which included blank ballots—was applied, with parties not reaching the threshold not entitled to enter the seat distribution.^[2]

Background

With the Spanish Socialist Workers' Party (PSOE) regaining its absolute majority in Andalusia in the 2004 election, Manuel Chaves was able to govern alone again, after 10 years of minority government, having relied on the support of the Andalusian Party in the previous 8 years. Teófila Martínez, who had been PP candidate for President of Andalusia in the previous two elections (1996 and 2000), was replaced by Javier Arenas as head of the Andalusian People's Party (PP). Arenas had been PP candidate in the 1994 and 1996 elections, but left the PP regional leadership in order to become Spain's Minister of Labor and Social Affairs in the Aznar cabinet and, later, Secretary-General of the People's Party.

Concurrently in 2004, José Luis Rodríguez Zapatero from PSOE was elected as Spain's new Prime Minister, after unexpectedly winning the 2004 general election. This meant that, for the first time since 1996, both the regional and national governments were ruled by the same party.

The province of Almeria, due to a growth in population over both the total of Andalusia and the previous elections in 2004, won a seat for a total of 12 to the loss of Cordoba, which also remained at 12.

Opinion polls

Vote

Poll results are listed in the table below in reverse chronological order, showing the most recent first. The highest percentage figure in each polling survey is displayed in bold, and the background shaded in the leading party's colour. In the instance that there is a tie, then no figure is shaded. The lead column on the right shows the percentage-point difference between the two parties with the highest figures. Poll results use the date the survey's fieldwork was done, as opposed to the date of publication. However, if such date is unknown, the date of publication will be given instead.

Date	Polling Firm/Source	PSOE	PP	IU	PA	Oth.	Lead
Date	Polling Firm/Source					Oth.	Lead
9 Mar 2008	Regional Election	48.4	38.5	7.1	2.8	3.2	9.9
9 Mar	TNS-Demoscopia	47.0	33.3	8.6	7.1	4.0	13.7
Exit polls
2 Mar	IMC	48.9	39.0	6.8	4.0	1.3	9.9
1 Mar	Metroscopia	48.6	37.2	8.4		5.8	11.4
21–26 Feb	Sigma-2	47.6	38.5	7.0	3.7	3.2	9.1
25 Feb	IMC	49.6	38.7	6.7	3.5	1.5	10.9
18–21 Feb	Sigma-2	46.8	38.4	6.5	4.6	3.7	8.4
18 Feb	IMC	49.4	38.9	6.5	3.0	2.2	10.5
11 Feb	IMC	49.7	38.6	6.1	3.2	2.4	11.1
31 Jan–7 Feb	Nexo	46.9	37.3	7.3	4.5	4.0	9.6
6 Feb	Opina	49.0	35.0	7.0	4.0	5.0	14.0
21 Jan–4 Feb	CIS	49.2	36.8	6.6	4.1	3.3	12.4
17–24 Jan	Nexo	45.2	37.3	7.3	4.2	6.0	7.9
15 Jan	IAC	45.6	39.3	7.2	4.5	3.4	6.3
10 Dec–12 Jan	CADPEA	48.8	34.2	6.8	4.8	5.4	14.6
8–10 Jan	TNS-Demoscopia	46.3	37.7	6.0	5.1	4.9	8.6
2008
10 Oct–9 Nov	IESA	49.1	36.7	7.3	4.9	2.0	12.4
5–7 Sep	PA	48.3	36.1	7.6	6.4	1.6	12.2
11 Jun–9 Jul	CADPEA	48.9	33.6	7.7	5.5	4.3	15.3
31 Jan–28 Feb	Nexo	45.9	34.1	7.2	6.9	5.9	11.8
21–22 Feb	Opina	48.0	33.0	7.5	5.5	6.0	15.0
19–22 Feb	Sigma-2	47.8	36.3	7.2	5.0	3.7	11.5
19–22 Feb	IAC	45.3	37.2			17.5	8.1
2007
17 Dec	ESTIO	45.1	34.5	7.3	5.8	7.3	10.6
15 Dec	IESA	50.6	32.8	7.9	5.3	3.4	17.8
10 Nov–12 Dec	CADPEA	49.4	31.3	8.1	4.7	6.5	18.1
20 Jun–16 Jul	CADPEA	49.5	34.7	7.8	4.8	3.2	14.8
18–25 May	ESTIO	47.5	34.5	7.5	4.2	6.3	13.0
8–11 May	Metroscopia	46.8	38.6	7.0	4.1	3.5	8.2
28 Feb	Sigma-2	46.0	39.2	6.6	4.5	3.7	6.8
26 Feb	Ipsos	48.8	32.6	6.8	7.2	4.6	16.2
26 Feb	ESTIO	48.5	34.6	6.9	5.9	4.1	13.9
13–15 Feb	Opina	47.0	33.5	7.5	6.5	5.5	13.5
6–8 Feb	Nexo	45.6	34.6	6.5	6.6	6.7	11.0
10–17 Jan	Metroscopia	52.1	32.4	7.2	5.6	2.7	19.7
2006
15 Nov–4 Dec	CADPEA	47.5	34.5	7.5	5.4	5.1	13.0
14 Nov–3 Dec	IESA	47.8	33.3	7.0	6.4	5.5	14.5
23–30 Nov	ESTIO	48.3	33.3	7.9	5.2	5.3	15.0
14–15 Nov	Sigma-2	47.8	37.3	6.3	5.1	3.5	10.5
22–29 Sep	Metroscopia^{[lower-alpha 1]}	50.6	29.8	8.7	5.0	5.9	20.8
1–22 Jul	CADPEA	48.1	35.3	7.8	5.1	3.7	12.8
1–6 Jul	Metroscopia^{[lower-alpha 1]}	49.5	32.8	5.0	6.8	5.9	16.7
27 Apr–4 May	Metroscopia^{[lower-alpha 1]}	52.5	31.2	7.8	4.9	3.6	21.3
28 Feb	Ipsos	50.0	29.8	7.2	7.7	5.3	20.2
28 Feb	Opina	51.0	32.5	7.5	6.5	2.5	18.5
26 Feb	Insight	49.5	34.8	6.4	5.0	4.3	14.7
22 Feb	Nexo	51.6	30.8	7.6	6.2	3.8	20.8
15–18 Feb	Sigma-2	50.0	34.2	6.8	5.3	3.7	15.8
15 Jan	IESA	50.5	32.5	8.1	6.6	2.3	18.0
2005
24 Nov–20 Dec	CADPEA	50.9	31.4	7.8	5.5	4.4	19.5
15 Nov–3 Dec	IESA	49.2	33.9	8.4	6.3	2.2	15.3
20 Nov	Insight	49.6	33.7	7.2	5.4	4.1	15.9
13–18 Oct	Synovate	55.0	32.0	7.0	5.0	1.0	23.0
13 Jun 2004	EP Election	54.4	36.1	5.1	2.6	1.8	18.3
14 Mar 2004	Regional Election	50.4	31.8	7.5	6.2	4.1	18.6

Seat projections

Opinion polls showing seat projections are displayed in the table below. The highest seat figures in each polling survey have their background shaded in the leading party's colour. In the instance that there is a tie, then no figure is shaded. 55 seats were required for an absolute majority in the Parliament of Andalusia.

55 seats needed for majority
Date	Polling Firm/Source	PSOE	PP	IU	PA	Others
Date	Polling Firm/Source					Others
9 Mar 2008	Regional Election	56	47	6	0	0
9 Mar	TNS-Demoscopia	56−58	44−46	4−6	2−3	0
9 Mar	Demométrica	55−58	42−44	5−6	3−5	0
9 Mar	Ipsos-Eco	58−62	42−45	4−5	0	0
Exit polls
2 Mar	IMC	54−58	43−47	4−6	0−3	0
1 Mar	Metroscopia	57−59	41−42	8	1−2	0
21–26 Feb	Sigma-2	56−58	44−47	5−7	1	0
18–21 Feb	Sigma-2	55−57	45−47	6	1−2	0
31 Jan–7 Feb	Nexo	54−55	42−43	8	4	0
6 Feb	Opina	56−59	44−46	5−6	1	0
21 Jan–4 Feb	CIS	59	43	6	1	0
17–24 Jan	Nexo	53−54	43−44	8	4	0
15 Jan	IAC	53−54	47−48	5−6	2−3	0
10 Dec–12 Jan	CADPEA	57−59	41−43	5−7	2−4	0
8–10 Jan	TNS-Demoscopia	56−58	46−48	3	2	0
2008
5–7 Sep	PA	55−58	40−42	5−6	5−6	0
31 Jan–28 Feb	Nexo	54−58	36−38	6−8	6−8	0
21–22 Feb	Opina	58−61	39−40	6−7	3−4	0
19–22 Feb	Sigma-2	55−58	43−48	5−6	1−2	0
2007
8–11 May	Metroscopia	56−57	43−44	6	3	0
28 Feb	Ipsos	60−61	38−39	5−6	4−5	0
28 Feb	Sigma-2	54−59	45−50	4	1	0
13–15 Feb	Opina	56−57	40−41	6	6	0
6–8 Feb	Nexo	55−57	40−42	6	6	0
10–17 Jan	Metroscopia	62	37	6	4	0
2006
28 Feb	Ipsos	61	35−36	6	6−7	0
28 Feb	Opina	60	38	6	5	0
2005
14 Mar 2004	Regional Election	61	37	6	5	0

1 2 3 This poll only includes data calculated over electorate figures and not over valid votes. Vote estimation has been manually calculated using a rule of three and the data made available by the pollster.

Results

Overall

Most voted party by provinces.

← Summary of the 9 March 2008 Parliament of Andalusia election results →
Parties and coalitions		Popular vote			Seats

Parties and coalitions		Votes	%	±pp	Won	+/−
	Spanish Socialist Workers' Party of Andalusia (PSOE–A)	2,178,296	48.41	–1.95	56	–5
	People's Party (PP)	1,730,154	38.45	+6.67	47	+10
	United Left/The Greens–Assembly for Andalusia (IULV–CA)	317,562	7.06	–0.45	6	±0
	Andalusian Coalition (CA)¹	124,243	2.76	–5.53	0	–5

Parties with less than 1.0% of the vote		101,438	2.25	—	±0
	Union, Progress and Democracy (UPyD)	27,712	0.62	New	±0
	The Greens (LV)	25,886	0.58	New	±0
	Party of Almeria (PdeAL)	14,806	0.33	New	±0
	Andalusian Convergence (CAnda)	7,862	0.17	New	±0
	Citizens–Party of the Citizenry (C's)	6,024	0.13	New	±0
	Republican Left (IR)	4,815	0.11	+0.04	±0
	Humanist Party (PH)	3,951	0.09	–0.04	±0
	Communist Party of the Andalusian People (PCPA)	2,743	0.06	New	±0
	Internationalist Solidarity and Self-Management (SAIn)	2,729	0.06	New	±0
	Spanish Falange of the JONS (FE–JONS)	1,763	0.04	–0.06	±0
	Andalusian Social Democratic Party (PSDA)	1,477	0.03	–0.01	±0
	Family and Life Party (PFyV)	890	0.02	New	±0
	Christian Positivist Party (PPCr)	780	0.02	New	±0

Blank ballots

47,920

1.06

–0.33

Total

4,499,613

100.00

109

±0

Valid votes

4,499,613

99.37

+0.02

Invalid votes

28,658

0.63

–0.02

Votes cast / turnout

4,528,271

72.67

–1.99

Abstentions

1,702,816

27.33

+1.99

Registered voters

6,231,087

Source(s): Argos Information Portal, historiaelectoral.com

Notes:
¹ Andalusian Coalition results are compared to the combined totals of the Andalusian Party, Andalusian Forum and Socialist Party of Andalusia in the 2004 election.

Popular vote

PSOE–A			48.41%
PP			38.45%
IULV–CA			7.06%
CA			2.76%
Others			2.25%
Blank ballots			1.06%

Seats

PSOE–A			51.38%
PP			43.12%
IULV–CA			5.50%

Distribution by constituency

Constituency	PSOE–A		PP		IULV–CA

	%	S	%	S	%	S
Almería	39.1	5	49.3	7	3.8	−
Cádiz	47.8	8	38.3	6	6.6	1
Córdoba	46.6	6	37.9	5	9.5	1
Granada	46.1	6	42.0	6	7.3	1
Huelva	52.0	6	35.2	4	7.6	1
Jaén	53.3	7	36.6	5	6.1	−
Málaga	43.2	7	43.6	8	7.1	1
Seville	54.4	11	31.7	6	7.3	1
Total	48.4	56	38.5	47	7.1	6

Aftermath

Investiture vote

First round: 17 April 2008
Absolute majority (55/109) required
Candidate: Manuel Chaves
Choice		Vote
Choice		Parties	Votes
	YYes	PSOE–A (56)	56 / 109
	No	PP (46), IULV–CA (6)	52 / 109
	Abstentions		0 / 109
Absences: PP (1)
Source: historiaelectoral.com

References

↑ Statute of Autonomy for Andalusia of 2007, Organic Law No. 2 of March 19, 2007 Official State Gazette (in Spanish). Retrieved on 2017-02-22.
↑ Electoral Law of Andalusia of 1986, Law No. 1 of January 2, 1986 Official State Gazette (in Spanish). Retrieved on 2017-02-22.

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