United States presidential election in Virginia, 2004

United States presidential election in Virginia, 2004
Virginia
November 2, 2004
 
Nominee George W. Bush John Kerry
Party Republican Democratic
Home state Texas Massachusetts
Running mate Dick Cheney John Edwards
Electoral vote 13 0
Popular vote 1,716,959 1,454,742
Percentage 53.73% 45.53%

County Results
  Kerry—80-90%
  Kerry—70-80%
  Kerry—60-70%
  Kerry—50-60%
  Kerry—<50%
  Bush—50-60%
  Bush—60-70%
  Bush—70-80%
President before election

George W. Bush
Republican

 Elected President

George W. Bush
Republican

The 2004 United States presidential election in Virginia took place on November 2, 2004 throughout all 50 states and D.C., which was part of the 2004 United States presidential election. Voters chose 13 representatives, or electors to the Electoral College, who voted for President and Vice President.

Virginia was won by incumbent President George W. Bush by an 8.2% margin of victory. Prior to the election, all 12 news organizations considered this a state Bush would win, or otherwise considered as a safe red state. The state had voted for the Republican candidate in all presidential elections since 1952 except during 1964's Democratic landslide. This pattern continued in 2004, although it would be broken four years later by the Democratic victory in 2008.

Primaries

Campaign

Predictions

Elections in Virginia

There were 12 news organizations who made state by state predictions of the election. Here are their last predictions before election day.[1]

  1. D.C. Political Report: Solid Republican
  2. Associated Press: Leans Bush
  3. CNN: Bush
  4. Cook Political Report: Lean Republican
  5. Newsweek: Lean Bush
  6. New York Times: Lean Bush
  7. Rasmussen Reports: Bush
  8. Research 2000: Solid Bush
  9. Washington Post: Bush
  10. Washington Times: Solid Bush
  11. Zogby International: Bush
  12. Washington Dispatch: Bush

Polling

Bush won every single pre-election poll. The final 3 poll average showed Bush leading 50% to 46%.[2]

Fundraising

Bush raised $8,594,386.[3] Kerry raised $6,125,128.[4]

Advertising and visits

Neither campaign advertised or visited this state during the fall election.[5][6]

Analysis

In the last century Virginia has shifted from a largely rural, politically Southern and conservative state to a more urbanized, pluralistic, and politically moderate environment. Up until the 1970s, Virginia was a racially divided one-party state dominated by the Byrd Organization.[7] African Americans were effectively disfranchised until after passage of civil rights legislation in the mid-1960s.[8] Enfranchisement and immigration of other groups, especially Hispanics, have placed growing importance on minority voting.[9] Regional differences play a large part in Virginia politics.[10] Rural southern and western areas moved to support the Republican Party in response to its "southern strategy", while urban and growing suburban areas, including Northern Virginia, form the Democratic Party base.[11][12] Democratic support also persists in union-influenced parts of Southwest Virginia, college towns such as Charlottesville and Blacksburg, and the southeastern Black Belt Region.[13][14]

Results

United States presidential election in Virginia, 2004[15]
Party Candidate Running mate Votes Percentage Electoral votes
Republican George W. Bush (inc.) Dick Cheney 1,716,959 53.73% 13
Democratic John Kerry John Edwards 1,454,742 45.53% 0
Libertarian Michael Badnarik Richard Campagna 11,032 0.35% 0
Constitution Michael Peroutka Chuck Baldwin 10,161 0.32% 0
Independent (Write-in) Ralph Nader (Write-in) Peter Camejo 2,393 0.07% 0
Green (Write-in) David Cobb (Write-in) Pat LaMarche 104 <0.01% 0
Write-ins - 24 <0.01% 0
Totals 3,195,415 100.00% 13
Voter turnout (Voting age population) 57.2% —

Results breakdown

By county

These results combine counties and independent cities in Virginia.

County or City Kerry % Kerry # Bush % Bush # Other % Other #
Accomack 41.3% 5,518 57.8% 7,726 0.8% 112
Albemarle 50.5% 22,088 48.5% 21,189 1.0% 449
Alleghany 44.5% 3,203 55.1% 3,962 0.4% 30
Amelia 34.5% 1,862 64.8% 3,499 0.7% 36
Amherst 38.3% 4,866 61.1% 7,758 0.6% 71
Appomattox 32.9% 2,191 65.6% 4,366 1.5% 98
Arlington 67.6% 63,987 31.3% 29,635 1.1% 1,028
Augusta 23.6% 7,019 74.4% 22,100 2.0% 585
Bath 36.3% 828 62.8% 1,432 1.0% 22
Bedford 29.0% 9,102 69.8% 21,925 1.2% 377
Bland 29.5% 846 68.5% 1,962 2.0% 57
Botetourt 30.4% 4,801 68.8% 10,865 0.8% 131
Brunswick 58.6% 4,062 41.2% 2,852 0.2% 12
Buchanan 53.7% 5,275 45.9% 4,507 0.5% 47
Buckingham 46.3% 2,789 52.8% 3,185 0.9% 53
Campbell 29.8% 6,862 69.1% 15,891 1.1% 244
Caroline 49.0% 4,878 50.2% 4,999 0.8% 77
Carroll 32.1% 3,888 67.4% 8,173 0.6% 67
Charles City 62.7% 2,155 36.5% 1,254 0.9% 30
Charlotte 40.9% 2,223 58.2% 3,166 0.9% 49
Chesterfield 36.9% 49,346 62.6% 83,745 0.5% 723
Clarke 41.5% 2,699 57.5% 3,741 1.0% 65
Craig 34.4% 901 65.1% 1,706 0.5% 14
Culpeper 35.1% 5,476 64.2% 10,026 0.7% 103
Cumberland 41.7% 1,721 57.6% 2,377 0.7% 28
Dickenson 50.8% 3,761 48.5% 3,591 0.7% 54
Dinwiddie 42.2% 4,569 57.1% 6,193 0.7% 77
Essex 46.2% 2,007 53.0% 2,304 0.8% 33
Fairfax 53.2% 245,671 45.9% 211,980 0.8% 3,728
Fauquier 35.8% 10,712 63.6% 19,011 0.6% 192
Floyd 36.9% 2,488 61.8% 4,162 1.2% 84
Fluvanna 40.3% 4,415 58.9% 6,458 0.8% 84
Franklin 36.0% 8,002 63.2% 14,048 0.8% 173
Frederick 31.0% 8,853 67.9% 19,386 1.1% 301
Giles 40.6% 3,047 57.6% 4,320 1.7% 131
Gloucester 31.3% 5,105 67.9% 11,084 0.9% 144
Goochland 34.7% 3,583 64.5% 6,668 0.8% 87
Grayson 34.0% 2,430 65.2% 4,655 0.7% 52
Greene 32.3% 2,240 65.9% 4,570 1.9% 129
Greensville 59.0% 2,514 40.7% 1,732 0.3% 12
Halifax 42.4% 6,220 57.1% 8,363 0.5% 73
Hanover 28.1% 13,941 71.4% 35,404 0.5% 266
Henrico 45.6% 60,864 53.8% 71,809 0.6% 745
Henry 42.0% 9,851 56.9% 13,358 1.1% 249
Highland 34.3% 522 64.6% 982 1.1% 16
Isle of Wight 37.0% 5,871 62.6% 9,929 0.4% 71
James City 38.4% 11,934 60.9% 18,949 0.7% 207
King and Queen 45.8% 1,506 52.9% 1,737 1.3% 43
King George 34.6% 2,739 64.7% 5,124 0.7% 58
King William 35.4% 2,436 64.0% 4,397 0.6% 39
Lancaster 39.8% 2,477 59.8% 3,724 0.5% 29
Lee 41.0% 4,005 58.0% 5,664 1.0% 101
Loudoun 43.6% 47,271 55.7% 60,382 0.7% 777
Louisa 40.2% 4,844 58.9% 7,083 0.9% 108
Lunenburg 45.0% 2,362 54.5% 2,858 0.5% 25
Madison 37.7% 2,176 61.6% 3,556 0.7% 40
Mathews 31.0% 1,589 68.2% 3,497 0.8% 43
Mecklenburg 41.4% 5,293 57.3% 7,319 1.3% 168
Middlesex 35.6% 1,914 62.0% 3,336 2.4% 127
Montgomery 44.8% 14,128 54.2% 17,070 1.0% 317
Nelson 49.6% 3,543 49.6% 3,539 0.8% 57
New Kent 30.7% 2,443 68.1% 5,414 1.1% 89
Northampton 50.5% 2,775 48.5% 2,669 1.0% 55
Northumberland 39.8% 2,548 59.8% 3,832 0.5% 29
Nottoway 43.7% 2,635 54.8% 3,303 1.5% 92
Orange 38.8% 5,015 59.9% 7,749 1.3% 164
Page 34.6% 3,324 64.8% 6,221 0.6% 58
Patrick 31.3% 2,572 67.0% 5,507 1.7% 136
Pittsylvania 33.8% 9,274 64.5% 17,673 1.7% 470
Powhatan 25.6% 3,112 73.6% 8,955 0.8% 96
Prince Edward 49.6% 3,632 48.8% 3,571 1.5% 113
Prince George 38.2% 5,066 61.3% 8,131 0.4% 57
Prince William 46.4% 61,271 52.8% 69,776 0.8% 1,016
Pulaski 37.3% 5,310 61.5% 8,769 1.2% 172
Rappahannock 45.4% 1,837 53.6% 2,172 1.0% 41
Richmond 37.0% 1,243 61.9% 2,082 1.1% 36
Roanoke 34.2% 16,082 65.1% 30,596 0.6% 295
Rockbridge 39.5% 3,627 58.9% 5,412 1.5% 142
Rockingham 24.9% 7,273 74.4% 21,737 0.7% 206
Russell 45.2% 5,167 53.2% 6,077 1.6% 179
Scott 33.4% 3,324 65.0% 6,479 1.6% 164
Shenandoah 30.2% 5,186 68.9% 11,820 0.8% 140
Smyth 33.6% 4,143 64.2% 7,906 2.2% 270
Southampton 45.8% 3,431 53.6% 4,018 0.6% 43
Spotsylvania 36.6% 16,623 62.8% 28,527 0.6% 295
Stafford 37.4% 17,208 62.0% 28,500 0.6% 278
Surry 55.5% 1,954 43.8% 1,543 0.7% 25
Sussex 55.7% 2,420 43.5% 1,890 0.8% 35
Tazewell 41.1% 7,184 57.4% 10,039 1.5% 257
Warren 37.3% 5,241 61.1% 8,600 1.6% 227
Washington 32.6% 7,339 65.5% 14,749 1.9% 426
Westmoreland 49.2% 3,370 50.1% 3,433 0.7% 45
Wise 40.5% 5,802 58.2% 8,330 1.3% 180
Wythe 31.0% 3,581 68.5% 7,911 0.5% 62
York 34.4% 10,276 64.9% 19,396 0.7% 208
Alexandria, Virginia 66.8% 41,116 32.3% 19,844 0.9% 555
Bedford, Virginia 41.0% 1,042 57.9% 1,472 1.1% 28
Bristol, Virginia 35.7% 2,400 63.6% 4,275 0.7% 49
Buena Vista, Virginia 39.2% 936 59.3% 1,417 1.5% 36
Charlottesville, Virginia 71.8% 11,088 27.0% 4,172 1.2% 190
Chesapeake, Virginia 42.3% 38,744 57.1% 52,283 0.6% 514
Colonial Heights, Virginia 25.0% 2,061 74.5% 6,129 0.5% 41
Covington, Virginia 51.2% 1,179 48.0% 1,104 0.8% 18
Danville, Virginia 49.4% 9,436 49.2% 9,399 1.4% 277
Emporia, Virginia 56.1% 1,247 43.7% 970 0.2% 4
Fairfax, Virginia 51.2% 5,395 47.8% 5,045 1.0% 106
Falls Church, Virginia 64.7% 3,944 34.0% 2,074 1.3% 80
Franklin, Virginia 54.0% 1,910 45.6% 1,613 0.4% 13
Fredericksburg, Virginia 54.2% 4,085 44.9% 3,390 0.9% 67
Galax, Virginia 42.3% 987 57.2% 1,336 0.5% 12
Hampton, Virginia 57.4% 32,016 42.0% 23,399 0.6% 326
Harrisonburg, Virginia 42.8% 4,726 55.9% 6,165 1.3% 139
Hopewell, Virginia 45.0% 3,573 53.6% 4,251 1.4% 112
Lexington, Virginia 57.0% 1,340 41.8% 982 1.1% 27
Lynchburg, Virginia 44.5% 11,727 54.7% 14,400 0.8% 213
Manassas, Virginia 43.1% 5,562 56.2% 7,257 0.7% 84
Manassas Park, Virginia 45.0% 1,498 54.2% 1,807 0.8% 27
Martinsville, Virginia 54.2% 3,036 45.3% 2,538 0.5% 29
Newport News, Virginia 52.0% 35,319 47.4% 32,208 0.6% 425
Norfolk, Virginia 61.7% 43,518 37.4% 26,401 0.9% 651
Norton, Virginia 48.2% 725 51.1% 768 0.7% 11
Petersburg, Virginia 81.0% 9,682 18.7% 2,238 0.2% 29
Poquoson, Virginia 22.0% 1,424 77.2% 5,004 0.8% 52
Portsmouth, Virginia 61.0% 24,112 38.5% 15,212 0.5% 210
Radford, Virginia 46.3% 2,244 52.9% 2,564 0.8% 37
Richmond, Virginia 70.2% 52,167 29.1% 21,637 0.7% 521
Roanoke, Virginia 52.4% 18,862 46.3% 16,661 1.3% 477
Salem, Virginia 37.0% 4,254 62.0% 7,115 1.0% 115
Staunton, Virginia 39.0% 3,756 60.3% 5,805 0.7% 68
Suffolk, Virginia 47.3% 15,233 52.1% 16,763 0.6% 193
Virginia Beach, Virginia 40.2% 70,666 59.1% 103,752 0.7% 1,269
Waynesboro, Virginia 35.1% 2,792 63.9% 5,092 1.0% 79
Williamsburg, Virginia 51.3% 2,216 47.8% 2,064 0.9% 40
Winchester, Virginia 42.5% 3,967 56.5% 5,283 1.0% 93

By congressional district

Bush won 9 of 11 congressional districts.[16]

District Bush Kerry Representative
1st 60% 39% Jo Ann Davis
2nd 58% 42% Thelma Drake
3rd 33% 66% Robert C. Scott
4th 57% 43% Randy Forbes
5th 56% 43% Virgil Goode
6th 63% 36% Bob Goodlatte
7th 61% 38% Eric Cantor
8th 35% 64% Jim Moran
9th 60% 39% Rick Boucher
10th 55% 44% Frank Wolf
11th 50% 49% Thomas M. Davis

Electors

Technically the voters of Virginia cast their ballots for electors: representatives to the Electoral College. Virginia is allocated 13 electors because it has 11 congressional districts and 2 senators. All candidates who appear on the ballot or qualify to receive write-in votes must submit a list of 13 electors, who pledge to vote for their candidate and his or her running mate. Whoever wins the majority of votes in the state is awarded all 13 electoral votes. Their chosen electors then vote for President and Vice President. Although electors are pledged to their candidate and running mate, they are not obligated to vote for them. An elector who votes for someone other than his or her candidate is known as a faithless elector.

The electors of each state and the District of Columbia met on December 13, 2004 to cast their votes for President and Vice President. The Electoral College itself never meets as one body. Instead the electors from each state and the District of Columbia met in their respective capitols.

The following were the members of the Electoral College from the state. All 13 were pledged for Bush/Cheney:

  1. Yvonne McGee McCoy
  2. Loretta H. Tate
  3. Theodore C. Brown
  4. Woodrow Harris
  5. Keith C. Drake
  6. Wendell S. Walker
  7. Peter E. Broadbent
  8. Sean Michael Spicer
  9. Lloyd C. Martin
  10. Dorothy L. Simpson
  11. Carlton John Davis
  12. Charles E. Dane
  13. Rebecca Anne Stoeckel

References

  1. ↑ http://www.dcpoliticalreport.com/members/2004/Pred2.htm#NW
  2. ↑ http://uselectionatlas.org/USPRESIDENT/GENERAL/CAMPAIGN/2004/polls.php?fips=51
  3. ↑ http://www.campaignmoney.com/political/campaigns/george_w_bush.asp?cycle=04
  4. ↑ http://www.campaignmoney.com/political/campaigns/john_f_kerry.asp?cycle=04
  5. ↑ "CNN.com Specials". CNN.
  6. ↑ "CNN.com Specials". CNN.
  7. ↑ Sweeney, James R. (1999). ""Sheep without a Shepherd": The New Deal Faction in the Virginia Democratic Party". Presidential Studies Quarterly 29: 438. doi:10.1111/1741-5705.00043. Retrieved March 31, 2008.
  8. ↑ Burchett, Michael H. (Summer 1997). "Promise and prejudice: Wise County, Virginia and the Great Migration, 1910–1920". The Journal of Negro History 82 (3): 312. doi:10.2307/2717675. JSTOR 2717675.
  9. ↑ Eisman, Dale (October 25, 2006). "Webb, Allen court Hispanic, white-collar voters in N. Va.". The Virginian-Pilot. Retrieved March 29, 2008.
  10. ↑ Turque, Bill; Wiggins, Ovetta; Stewart, Nikita (February 13, 2008). "In Virginia, Results Signal A State in Play for November". The Washington Post. Retrieved September 29, 2008.
  11. ↑ Miller, Gary; Schofield, Norman (May 2003). "Activists and Partisan Realignment in the United States". The American Political Science Review 97 (2): 245–260. doi:10.1017/s0003055403000650. JSTOR 3118207.
  12. ↑ Craig, Tim (December 11, 2007). "Tensions Could Hurt Majority in Va. Senate". The Washington Post. Retrieved December 23, 2007.
  13. ↑ "State Political Profile: Virginia". The Washington Post. Associated Press. 2006. Archived from the original on August 24, 2007. Retrieved December 23, 2007.
  14. ↑ Clemons, Michael L.; Jones, Charles E. (July 2000). "African American Legislative Politics in Virginia". Journal of Black Studies 30 (6, Special Issue: African American State Legislative Politics): 744–767. doi:10.1177/002193470003000603. JSTOR 2645922.
  15. ↑ http://clerk.house.gov/member_info/electionInfo/2004election.pdf
  16. ↑ http://www.swingstateproject.com/diary/4161/
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