United States presidential election in Iowa, 2016

United States presidential election in Iowa, 2016
Iowa
November 8, 2016

Incumbent President

Barack Obama
Democratic
Elections in Iowa

The 2016 United States presidential election in Iowa will take place on November 8, 2016, as part of the 2016 general election in which all 50 states plus the District of Columbia participate. Iowa voters will choose electors to represent them in the Electoral College via a popular vote.

Both parties' caucuses were held on February 1, 2016.[1]

Democratic caucus

Iowa Democratic caucuses, 2016
Iowa
February 1, 2016 (2016-02-01)
 
Candidate Hillary Clinton Bernie Sanders
Home state New York Vermont
Delegate count 700 697
Percentage 49.8% 49.6%

Election results by county.
  Hillary Clinton
  Bernie Sanders
Further information: Walking subcaucus

There is no ballot; instead, a unique form of debate and groupings chose delegates to county conventions supporting Hillary Clinton, Martin O'Malley, and Bernie Sanders. The Iowa Democratic Party does not release vote counts or the numbers of these delegates. The county conventions select delegates to district and state conventions, which in turn select the delegates to the Democratic National Convention.

Forums and debates

November 14, 2015 – Des Moines, Iowa The second debate occurred on November 14, 2015, at the Sheslow Auditorium at Drake University in Des Moines, Iowa. It aired on CBS News and was also be broadcast by KCCI and The Des Moines Register. This was the first debate to be broadcast over nationwide network television, the previous debate having gone over cable.[2]

CBS News Political Director John Dickerson was the principal moderator, with participation by Kevin Cooney of KCCI.[2]

The day before the debate, November 13, was the day of the November 2015 Paris attacks, where nearly 130 civilians were killed by members of ISIS across the city of Paris. As a result of the attacks, after initial speculation that the debate might be cancelled, CBS announced that, while the debate would go on as planned, the focus of the debate's content would be dramatically shifted over to foreign policy and terrorism.[3][4] In addition, a moment of silence was held at the beginning of the debate in memory of the victims.

January 11, 2016 – Des Moines, Iowa The "Black and Brown" forum occurred on January 11, 2016, at Drake University in Des Moines, Iowa. Focusing on minority issues, it aired on Fusion.[5]

Results

Iowa Democratic caucuses, February 1, 2016
Candidate State Delegate Equivalents Percentage Estimated delegates Actual delegates
Pledged Unpledged Total
Hillary Clinton 700.47 49.84% 23 6 29
Bernie Sanders 696.92 49.59% 21 0 21
Martin O'Malley 7.63 0.54% 0 0 0
Uncommitted 0.46 0.03% 0 2 2
Total 1,405.48 100% 44 8 52 52
Source: The Green Papers, Iowa Democrats

Controversy

Results of the Iowa Democratic caucus, 2016
  Clinton—70-80%
  Clinton—60-70%
  Clinton—50-60%
  Clinton—<50%
  Tie between Clinton and Sanders
  Sanders—<50%
  Sanders—50-60%
  Sanders—60-70%
  Sanders—70-80%

"[O]rganizational issues around the caucus", including difficulty identifying volunteers to "oversee individual precinct caucuses," contributed to a "disorganized process that lent itself to chaos and conspiracy theories" according to The Guardian.[6]

Both the Sanders and Clinton campaigns have flagged a very small number of concerns for us, and we are looking at them all on a case-by-case basis.
— Sam Lau, Iowa Democratic Party

After initially refusing to review caucus results, Iowa Democratic Party officials did end up "making updates where discrepancies have been found."[7] With "doubts about which Democratic candidate actually won the Iowa caucuses," there have been "fresh calls for the party to mirror the simple, secret-ballot method" the Republicans use. Stated Norm Sterzenbach, former Iowa Democratic Party executive director who oversaw five election cycles: “It’s worth discussing again, but it’s not as simple as it sounds.”[8]

Instances

Iowa Democrats reported "discrepancies in caucus results" and confusion over the math of the delegate-awarding system. In Grinnell Ward 1, 19 delegates were awarded to Sanders and seven to Clinton on caucus night. The Iowa Democratic party later shifted one delegate from Sanders to Clinton, but did not notify the precinct secretary, who "only discovered that this happened the next day, when checking the precinct results in other parts of the county."[6]

Other reported discrepancies included:

In Des Moines No. 42, "after everyone had formed initial groups for their preferred candidate," a Clinton supporter addressed O'Malley and undecideds telling them "they could stay and realign or leave.” Some mistakenly believed that meant voting was finished and left early without being counted.[9] In the same precinct, votes were still missing the morning after caucus. Democrats "from that neighborhood scrambled to find party officials" to report that Sanders won by a margin of two delegates over Clinton. This narrowed Clinton's "excruciatingly close lead" even further—bringing the tally for "delegate equivalents" at that point to Clinton 699.57, Sanders 697.77.[10]

Coin tosses

The Des Moines Register reported "an unknown number" of county delegates awarded "after the flip of a coin." Sam Lau, a spokesman for the Iowa Democratic Party, said seven coin flips were reported through "the party's smartphone app"—but officials who reported county delegate totals via the app "weren't required to signify if the win was the result of a coin toss." Lau said Bernie Sanders won six of these. The paper identified "six coin flips through social media and one in an interview with a caucus participant"—with Clinton the apparent winner of six of these seven. Any overlap, or its impact on results, between the coin flips identified by the Register and those the party confirmed was not known.[11]

An Iowa Democratic Party official told NPR there were "at least a dozen tiebreakers" decided by a coin toss— and that "Sen. Sanders won at least a handful."[12]

Gone unmentioned so far is that even if Clinton won that Miracle Six — and there were no other coin tosses — it would make little difference in the outcome. That is, in part, because of the complicated way Iowa Democrats allocate their delegates — and what was being reported on election night and what wasn't.[13]
— Domenico Montanaro, NPR

Review

Sanders' campaign "launched" a review of the results of the caucuses, citing as "complicating factors" the "razor-thin margin", the "arcane" caucusing rules, the reporting delays from some precincts, and the reporting technology used. The campaign is rechecking results precinct-by-precinct, reviewing "math sheets or other paperwork" precinct chairs used and were supposed to return to party officials—then comparing these with results entered into the party's Microsoft app. Rania Batrice, a Sanders spokeswoman, challenged: “Let’s compare notes. Let’s see if they match."[14]

In an editorial, The Des Moines Register called for an audit of the results, declaring “What happened Monday night at the Democratic caucuses was a debacle, period."[14] First noting that only two-tenths of a percent separated Sanders and Clinton and "much larger margins trigger automatic recounts in other states," they stated:

Too many accounts have arisen of inconsistent counts, untrained and overwhelmed volunteers, confused voters, cramped precinct locations, a lack of voter registration forms and other problems. Too many of us, including members of the Register editorial board who were observing caucuses, saw opportunities for error amid Monday night’s chaos.[14]

In lieu of "official paper records" the party had "declined to provide the campaign"—which would show individual precinct vote tallies before they were entered into the party's app the night of the caucuses—the Sanders' campaign was contacting each of its own precinct captains to reconstruct caucus results.[15] Sanders' campaign manager Jeff Weaver said: "I think everybody has an interest in making it as accurate as possible", though "[a]s an empirical matter, we're not likely to ever know what the actual result was".[16]

Let’s not blow this out of proportion. This is not the biggest deal in the world. We think, by the way, based on talking to our precinct captains, we may have at least two more delegates.”[17]
— Bernie Sanders

Republican caucus

Iowa Republican caucuses, 2016
Iowa
February 1, 2016 (2016-02-01)
 
Candidate Ted Cruz Donald Trump Marco Rubio
Home state Texas New York Florida
Popular vote 51,666 45,427 43,165
Percentage 27.6% 24.3% 23.1%
 
Candidate Ben Carson Rand Paul Jeb Bush
Home state Maryland Kentucky Florida
Popular vote 17,395 8,481 5,238
Percentage 9.3% 4.5% 2.8%

Election results by county.
  Ted Cruz
  Donald Trump
  Marco Rubio
  Tie

According to the Republican Party of Iowa's bylaws, if more than one candidate is nominated at the Republican National Convention, all of Iowa's delegates are bound to vote "proportionally in accordance with the outcome of the Iowa Caucuses" on the first ballot, even if the candidate has withdrawn from the race.[18] The ballot is a blank piece of paper, and the candidates that voters may vote for in the non-binding preference poll included the following:

Forums and debates

November 20, 2015 – Des Moines, Iowa The Presidential Family Forum was held in the Community Choice Credit Union Convention Center in Des Moines, Iowa. Ben Carson, Ted Cruz, Carly Fiorina, Mike Huckabee, Rand Paul, Marco Rubio, and Rick Santorum attended the forum hosted by evangelical Christian advocacy group The Family Leader. It was hosted by politician and political activist Bob Vander Plaats and moderated by political consultant and pollster Frank Luntz.[19] Protesters interrupted the beginning of the event and were removed by police.[20]

January 28, 2016 – Des Moines, Iowa The seventh debate was the second debate to air on Fox News. As in Fox's first debate, the moderators were Bret Baier, Megyn Kelly, and Chris Wallace.[21] This was the last debate before actual voting begins with the Iowa caucuses on February 1, 2016.[22][23] Due to personality conflicts with Fox News, Donald Trump opted out of the debate.[24]

Results

Iowa Republican caucuses, February 1, 2016
Candidate Votes Percentage Actual delegate count
Bound Unbound Total
Ted Cruz 51,666 27.6% 0 8 8
Donald Trump 45,427 24.3% 0 7 7
Marco Rubio 43,165 23.1% 0 7 7
Ben Carson 17,395 9.3% 0 3 3
Rand Paul 8,481 4.5% 0 1 1
Jeb Bush 5,238 2.8% 0 1 1
Carly Fiorina 3,485 1.9% 0 1 1
John Kasich 3,474 1.9% 0 1 1
Mike Huckabee 3,345 1.8% 0 1 1
Chris Christie 3,284 1.8% 0 0 0
Rick Santorum 1,783 1.0% 0 0 0
Other 119 0.1% 0 0 0
Jim Gilmore 12 0.00% 0 0 0
Unprojected delegates: 0 0 0
Total: 186,874 100.00% 0 30 30
Results of the Iowa Republican caucus, 2016
  Cruz—40-50%
  Cruz—30-40%
  Cruz—20-30%
  Tied between Cruz and Trump
  Trump—20-30%
  Trump—30-40%
  Trump—40-50%
  Rubio—20-30%
  Rubio—30-40%

Controversy

Ben Carson accused Ted Cruz's campaign of winning the caucuses using dishonest tactics, such as falsely telling caucus-goers that Carson had dropped out in order to get them to switch their votes to Cruz.[25] Donald Trump also accused Cruz of 'stealing' the Iowa caucuses through fraud.[26]

See also

References

  1. ↑ "2016 Primary Calendar and Results". nytimes.com. Retrieved January 25, 2016.
  2. 1 2 Weiland, Noah (November 12, 2015). "Everything you need to know about Saturday's Democratic debate". Politico. Retrieved November 13, 2015.
  3. ↑ "CBS Shifts Emphasis of Democratic Debate to Reflect Paris Attacks". New York Times. Retrieved November 15, 2015.
  4. ↑ "Democratic Debate to Shift Focus After Paris Attacks". Time. Retrieved November 15, 2015.
  5. ↑ Gold, Hadas (November 19, 2015). "Fusion to host Democratic presidential forum". Politico. Politico. Retrieved January 11, 2016.
  6. 1 2 Jacobs, Ben (2016-02-05). "Iowa Democratic party altered precinct's caucus results during chaotic night". The Guardian. ISSN 0261-3077. Retrieved 2016-02-06.
  7. ↑ Jacobs, Jennifer (2016-02-05). "Iowa margin between Clinton, Sanders shifts as errors found". Des Moines Register. The USA Today Network. Retrieved 2016-02-05.
  8. ↑ Jacobs, Jennifer (2016-02-06). "Uproar could lead to revamping Democratic caucuses". Des Moines Register. The USA Today Network. Retrieved 2016-02-07.
  9. ↑ Jacobs, Jennifer (2016-02-07). "Iowans claim instances when Sanders was shorted delegates". Des Moines Register. The USA Today Network. Retrieved 2016-02-07.
  10. ↑ "Missing precinct scrambles to report Sanders won". Des Moines Register. Retrieved 2016-02-04.
  11. ↑ Clayworth, Jason; Noble, Jason (February 2, 2016). "Iowa caucus coin flip count unknown". The Des Moines Register (Des Moines Register). Retrieved February 3, 2016.
  12. ↑ Montanaro, Domenico (February 2, 2016). "Coin-Toss Fact Check: No, Coin Flips Did Not Win Iowa For Hillary Clinton". NPR. Archived from the original on February 3, 2016. Retrieved February 3, 2016.
  13. ↑ Twitter, Domenico Montanaro. "Coin-Toss Fact Check: No, Coin Flips Did Not Win Iowa For Hillary Clinton". NPR.org. Retrieved 2016-02-03.
  14. 1 2 3 "Editorial: Something smells in the Democratic Party". Des Moines Register. Retrieved 2016-02-04.
  15. ↑ Hamburger, Tom (2016-02-04). "Sanders campaign says it was denied paper records of Iowa caucus vote". The Washington Post. ISSN 0190-8286. Retrieved 2016-02-05.
  16. ↑ Wagner, John (2016-02-02). "Sanders campaign reviewing Iowa caucus totals, says actual result may never be known". The Washington Post. ISSN 0190-8286. Retrieved 2016-02-02.
  17. ↑ Jacobs, Ben (5 February 2016). "Iowa Democratic party altered precinct's caucus results during chaotic night". The Guardian. Retrieved 6 February 2016.
  18. ↑ Article VIII, Republican Party of Iowa bylaws, amended June 27, 2015.
  19. ↑ "Presidential candidates display faith, fire". Des Moines Register. Retrieved December 2, 2015.
  20. ↑ "Republican Candidates Talk Religion, Security at Iowa Forum". ABC News. Retrieved December 2, 2015.
  21. ↑ "Fox News Channel's Megyn Kelly will be at GOP debate in January". Los Angeles Times. August 13, 2015. Retrieved September 27, 2015.
  22. ↑ "These States Could Pick the GOP Nominee, Each for Different Reasons". National Journal. Retrieved December 16, 2015.
  23. ↑ "Fox News to host last GOP debate before Iowa caucuses". FoxNews. December 21, 2015.
  24. ↑ "Trump Says Skipping Debate 'Turned Out Great'". NBC News. January 29, 2016.
  25. ↑ "Carson calls for Cruz camp dismissals after cheating allegations".
  26. ↑ "Trump accuses Cruz of stealing Iowa caucuses through 'fraud'".

External links

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