United States presidential election, 2024

United States presidential election, 2024
United States
November 5, 2024
President before election

TBD

 Elected President

TBD

The United States presidential election of 2024, scheduled for Tuesday, November 5, 2024, is to be the 60th quadrennial U.S. presidential election. According to the formula prescribed by law, voters will select presidential electors who in turn will elect a new president and vice president through the electoral college. Assuming that no changes occur to the election process, a series of presidential primary elections and caucuses will held during the first six months of 2024. This nominating process is also an indirect election, where voters cast ballots for a slate of delegates to a political party's nominating convention, who then in turn elect their party's presidential nominee.

Schedule

U.S. presidential elections are scheduled on the Tuesday after the first Monday in November. Following that schedule, the 2024 elections are to be held on Tuesday, November 5, 2024.[1] The general election will follow caucuses and primary elections held to determine the nominees of the major parties. Virginia has scheduled a presidential primary for March 5, 2024, subject to the primary being actually held.[1]

Key factors

Campaigns and candidates

A 2008 feminist advocacy documentary by Amy Sewell, "What's Your Point Honey?", follows the lives of seven females selected as part of a 16-year plan to "groom" potential candidates for the 2024 U.S. presidential election.[2]

In a 2015 article for the Washington Post, former ambassador Howard Gutman outlined several political leaders positioning themselves for a possible run for the presidency in eight years time. Gutman believed either Ken Salazar or Julian Castro would be likely contenders.[3]

Impact of demographic changes and Electoral College redistribution

The election has been the early topic of attention by analysts and commentators as it will be the first U.S. presidential election to occur after the reallocation of electors in the United States Electoral College occurring as a result of the 2020 United States Census.[4][5] This realignment of electoral college votes will remain consistent through the 2028 election before being reapportioned again for the 2032 election.[6]

In a study of the implications of redistribution of electors in 2024 published in Perspectives on Politics, University of Georgia political scientist Edward Burmila concluded that:[7]

Democratic presidential candidates will find it increasingly difficult to win elections without having some success in the South and Southwest as Barack Obama did in 2008 but many previous candidates failed to do. While migration will also benefit some solid Democratic states such as California, on balance Republican presidential candidates are poised to benefit from the status of Sun Belt states as magnets for both foreign immigration and domestic migration from a retirement cohort of unprecedented size.

In a separate analysis for Real Clear Politics, Sean Trende predicted a less significant movement of three electoral votes from traditionally Democratic Party states to those that traditionally support Republican candidates during the redistribution of electors that will occur for the 2024 election.[8]

Though geography has been said to favor a Republican candidate in the 2024 election, some have noted that demographic trends may help a Democratic candidate if current group party affinities continue to hold in 2024. Ethnic minorities are predicted to constitute 40-percent of eligible voters age 30 to 44, a constituency described as "ripe for Democratic retention." As a possible rejoinder, however, the unusually large millennial generation will begin entering middle age in 2024 which, according to the Brookings Institute, "will be easier for the Republican Party to retain if current generational voting affinities continue."[9]

In popular culture

References

  1. 1 2 "Election Planning Calendar" (PDF). essex-virginia.org. Essex County, Virginia. Retrieved 6 February 2016.
  2. ↑ Finn, Robin (30 May 2008). "A Knack for Putting Feminism on Film". New York Times. Retrieved 6 February 2016.
  3. ↑ Howard Gutman (August 7, 2015). "Forget about 2016. Here’s an early look at Campaign 2024 and beyond.". Washington Post.
  4. ↑ McArdle, Megan (May 21, 2015). "2016 Might Look Safe to Democrats. But 2024?". Bloomberg. Retrieved October 30, 2015.
  5. ↑ Janda, Kenneth (2013). The Challenge of Democracy: American Government in Global Politics. Wadsworth. p. 218. ISBN 1133602304.
  6. ↑ Neale, Thomas (2012). The Electoral College: How It Works in Contemporary Presidential Elections (PDF). Congressional Research Service. Retrieved October 30, 2015.
  7. ↑ Burmila, Edward (December 2009). "The Electoral College after Census 2010 and 2020: The Political Impact of Population Growth and Redistribution". Perspectives on Politics 7 (4).
  8. ↑ Trende, Sean (December 30, 2013). "Population Data Show More Movement South and West". Real Clear Politics. Retrieved October 30, 2015.
  9. ↑ "Today’s race and generational voting preferences cannot predict future election outcomes". brookings.org. Brookings Institute. Retrieved October 30, 2015.
  10. ↑ "Vice President Joe Biden Breaks Hearts on Parks and Recreation—Watch the Video". E! Online. 3 November 2012. Retrieved 6 February 2016.
  11. ↑ Hinckley, David (19 March 2015). "'Glee' finale flashes back to the start, then forward to the 'New Directions' future". New York Daily News. Retrieved 6 February 2016.
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