United States presidential election, 2020

United States presidential election, 2020
United States
November 3, 2020
538 members of the Electoral College
270 electoral votes needed to win

The electoral map for the 2020 election, based on populations from the 2010 census
President before election

TBD

 Elected President

TBD

The United States presidential election of 2020, scheduled for Tuesday, November 3, 2020, will be the 59th quadrennial U.S. presidential election. Voters will select presidential electors who in turn will elect a new president and vice president through the electoral college. The series of presidential primary elections and caucuses are scheduled to be held during the first six months of 2020. This nominating process is also an indirect election, where voters cast ballots selecting a slate of delegates to a political party's nominating convention, who then in turn elect their party's presidential nominee.

No incumbent or former one-term President is seeking a term in 2016, meaning that whoever is elected in 2016 will likely be eligible to seek a second term.

Background

Procedure

Article Two of the United States Constitution states that for a person to be elected and serve as President of the United States the individual must be a natural-born citizen of the United States, at least 35 years old and a United States resident for at least 14 years. Candidates for the presidency typically seek the nomination of one of the various political parties of the United States, in which case each party develops a method (such as a primary election) to choose the candidate the party deems best suited to run for the position. The primary elections are usually indirect elections where voters cast ballots for a slate of party delegates pledged to a particular candidate. The party's delegates then officially nominate a candidate to run on the party's behalf. The general election in November is also an indirect election, where voters cast ballots for a slate of members of the Electoral College; these electors then directly elect the President and Vice President.[1][2]

Possible impact of NPVIC in 2020

Organizers predict the National Popular Vote Interstate Compact (NPVIC) will be in effect by the 2020 United States presidential election. If this occurs, it may significantly alter the electoral dynamics of the contest.[3] The contract is an agreement among several states and the District of Columbia to assign their presidential electors to the winner of the national popular vote under certain conditions. The NPVIC is intended to address perceived shortcomings in the current Electoral College system.[4]

Demographic trends

The 2020 U.S. presidential election will mark the first time all members of the millennial generation will be eligible to vote.[5] The age group of what will then be persons in the 20 to 45-year-old bracket will represent 40 percent of the United States' eligible voters in 2020.[6] It has also been estimated that 15 percent of eligible voters in the 2020 U.S. presidential election will be Hispanic.[6]

Simultaneous elections

The presidential election will occur at the same time as elections to the Senate and the House of Representatives. Several states will also hold state governor and state legislative elections. Following the election, the United States House will redistribute the seats among the 50 states based on the results of the 2020 United States Census, and the states will conduct a redistricting of Congressional and state legislative districts. In most states, the governor and the state legislature conduct the redistricting (although some states have redistricting commissions), and often a party that wins a presidential election experiences a coattail effect that also helps other candidates of that party win election.[7] Therefore, the party that wins the 2020 presidential election could also win a significant advantage in the drawing of new Congressional and state legislative districts that would stay in effect until the 2032 elections.[8]

Democratic Party

New York officials have announced plans to bring the Democratic National Convention to the city in 2020

Potential candidates

During a June 2015 appearance, former U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton said she would serve "two terms as president," causing speculation that she intends to run for reelection to a second term as president of the United States in 2020 if she is elected in the 2016 presidential election.[9][10]

New York Governor Andrew Cuomo has mentioned that he might run in 2020 if Hillary Clinton does not win in 2016 and does not run in the 2020 Democratic presidential primaries.[11] Junior New Jersey Senator Cory Booker has also been speculated as gearing up a run for President in 2020.[12]

Potential convention sites

In February 2015, New York City mayor Bill de Blasio confirmed he would attempt to secure the 2020 Democratic National Convention, where the Democratic Party will formally nominate its presidential candidate, for New York.[13] Municipal and business leaders in Columbus, Ohio and Indianapolis, Indiana have also expressed interest in bidding for the 2020 convention.[14]

Republican Party

Las Vegas has indicated it will compete to be the host city of the 2020 Republican National Convention.

Potential candidates

Congressman Justin Amash, while campaigning for presidential candidate Rand Paul in Grand Rapids, Michigan in 2015, was asked if he might be the next libertarian Republican to run for president, to which Amash responded "anything is possible."[15] United States Senator Tom Cotton has been mentioned as a potential candidate for president in 2020. In 2015, legislation was proposed in Cotton's home state of Arkansas to permit political candidates to simultaneously seek multiple federal offices. Under current Arkansas law, Cotton would not be able to simultaneously run for president and his seat in the U.S. Senate in 2020. According to the sponsor of the legislation, state senator Bart Hester, the proposal was introduced specifically to allow Cotton to seek the presidency in 2020.[16] Since suspending his 2016 presidential campaign, Chris Christie has been mentioned as possibly running again in the next open presidential election.[17][18][19]

Potential convention sites

Las Vegas, Nevada has been mentioned as a possible site for the 2020 Republican National Convention, where the party will formally choose its nominee.[20] Though the city had bid on the 2016 convention, it ultimately withdrew, with Nevada Lieutenant Governor Brian Krolicki saying Las Vegas intended "to defer our bid effort to the 2020 Republican National Convention" when the city meets the parameters necessary to participate.[21]

Third party, Independent, and unaffiliated candidates

Kanye West, pictured here in 2011, announced his 2020 candidacy for president at the 2015 MTV Video Music Awards.

In 2013, talk show host Adam Kokesh announced his intention to seek the U.S. presidency in 2020 on a platform of abolishing the entirety of the United States government. Kokesh did not announce a party affiliation.[22][23] Kokesh formally launched his pre-announcement on December 7, 2015 saying, "I plan to run for president of the United States to peacefully dissolve the entire federal government in four years".[24]

American Journalist Dan Rattiner has made his announcement regarding the 2020 Presidential election stating that he wanted to announce early to begin a five-year fundraiser and that he is running because he is convinced whoever wins will harm the nation. He said in his running statement that he is running: "...on a platform of peace, prosperity, harmony, the sanctity of individual freedom, the respect for law and order..."[25]

During the 2015 MTV Video Music Awards, musician Kanye West announced his candidacy for President of the United States, without specifying a potential party affiliation.[26] According to Politico, it was not "clear whether he was serious," however, in a subsequent interview West gave to Vanity Fair he confirmed he was, in fact, serious.[27][28] Following West's announcement, a Super PAC, "Ready for Kanye," was registered with the Federal Elections Commission. The group's registrant, Eugene Craig III, is chair of the Young Minority Republicans Fund.[29] A number of sources suggested West would ultimately run as a Democrat, however, in an interview about his candidacy, West praised 2016 Republican presidential candidate Ben Carson, describing him as "brilliant."[30][31]

Predictions and opinion polling

See also

References

  1. ↑ "US Election guide: how does the election work?". Daily Telegraph. 6 November 2012. Retrieved 29 October 2015.
  2. ↑ "The Role of Delegates in the U.S. Presidential Nominating Process". cfr.org. Council on Foreign Relations. Retrieved 29 October 2015.
  3. ↑ La Capra, Quin (27 April 2014). "Will popular vote elect president in 2020?". The Hill. Retrieved 29 October 2015.
  4. ↑ Brody, Michael (February 17, 2013). "Circumventing the Electoral College: Why the National Popular Vote Interstate Compact Survives Constitutional Scrutiny Under the Compact Clause". Legislation and Policy Brief (Washington College of Law Journals & Law Reviews at Digital Commons @ American University Washington College of Law) 5 (1): 33, 35. Retrieved September 11, 2014.
  5. ↑ "Millennials Will Rule Voting Bloc by 2020". publicslate.org. Public Slate. Retrieved 30 October 2015.
  6. 1 2 Weeks, Linton (25 January 2013). "Forget 2016. The Pivotal Year In Politics May Be 2020". National Public Radio. Retrieved 30 October 2015.
  7. ↑ Campbell, James E. (March 1986). "Presidential Coattails and Midterm Losses in State Legislative Elections". The American Political Science Review 80 (1): 45. Retrieved 30 October 2015.
  8. ↑ Sarlin, Benjy (26 August 2014). "Forget 2016: Democrats already have a plan for 2020". MSNBC. Retrieved 30 October 2015.
  9. ↑ Frizell, Sam (17 June 2015). "Did Hillary Clinton Just Announce Her 2020 Presidential Campaign?". TIME Magazine. Retrieved 29 October 2015.
  10. ↑ Satish, Madhuri (31 August 2015). "Who Will Run For President In 2020? Kanye West & 6 Other Potential Contenders Are Clearly Type-A Planners". Bustle. Retrieved 29 October 2015.
  11. ↑ Dicker, Frederic U. (November 3, 2014). "Cuomo might run for president in 2020 if Hillary loses in 2016". The New York Post. Retrieved January 10, 2016.
  12. ↑ Mullins, Chelsey (June 10, 2013). "Cory Booker Senate Run: If He Wins, Can We Expect a 2020 Presidential Run?". NewsMic. Retrieved January 10, 2016.
  13. ↑ Barken, Ross (15 February 2015). "Bill de Blasio Is Now Thinking About Bringing 2020 Democratic Convention to NYC". New York Observer. Retrieved 29 October 2015.
  14. ↑ Knox, Tom (20 February 2015). "Columbus may have to contend with Indianapolis for 2020 conventions". Columbus Business Journal. Retrieved 30 October 2015.
  15. ↑ Krietz, Andrew (4 May 2015). "Rep. Justin Amash keeps presidential question open". MLive Michigan. Retrieved 6 February 2016.
  16. ↑ DeMillow, Andrew (10 March 2015). "Bill would allow Sen. Cotton to run for president". Baxter Bulletin. Retrieved 29 October 2015.
  17. ↑ "Fresh start for the governor?". Asbury Park Press. 12 February 2016.
  18. ↑ "7 things to ponder about Gov. Christie". Asbury Park Press. 12 February 2016.
  19. ↑ "Christie To End 2016 White House Bid".
  20. ↑ Morrison, Jane Ann (7 December 2013). "City may not be ready for GOP convention in 2016, but in 2020 ...". Las Vegas Review-Journal. Retrieved 30 October 2015.
  21. ↑ Myers, Laura (22 May 2014). "Las Vegas withdraws GOP convention bid; arena, timing difficulties cited". Las Vegas Review-Journal. Retrieved 30 October 2015.
  22. ↑ "Adam Kokesh to Run for President in 2020". Independent Political Report. 22 July 2013. Retrieved 29 October 2015.
  23. ↑ Woodruff, Betsy (5 August 2013). "Adam Kokesh's 2020 Presidential Campaign". National Review. Retrieved 29 October 2015.
  24. ↑ "Instagram". Instagram.
  25. ↑ Rattiner, Dan (April 24, 2015). "Dan Rattiner Running for President in 2020". Dan's Papers. Retrieved January 10, 2016.
  26. ↑ Zaru, Dee (5 September 2015). "Kanye West declares 2020 presidential bid at VMAs". CNN. Retrieved 29 October 2015.
  27. ↑ Thompson, Arienne (25 September 2015). "Guys, Kanye is serious about running for president in 2020". USA Today. Retrieved 29 October 2015.
  28. ↑ Gold, Hadas (31 August 2015). "Kanye West: I'm running for president in 2020". Politico. Retrieved 29 October 2015.
  29. ↑ Rosenfeld, Everett (31 August 2015). "Ready for Kanye organization established with FEC". CNBC. Retrieved 29 October 2015.
  30. ↑ Standen, Dirk (24 September 2015). "Exclusive: Kanye West Talks Yeezy Season 2, Presidential Run, and Sweatshirts". Vanity Fair. Retrieved 29 October 2015.
  31. ↑ Horton, Helena (1 September 2015). "Everything you need to know about Kanye West running for President". Daily Telegraph. Retrieved 29 October 2015.
  32. ↑ Cillizza, Chris (12 August 2014). "51 charts on the 2020 elections. Yes, you read that right.". Washington Post. Retrieved 29 October 2015.
  33. ↑ Carrasco, Anthony (21 October 2014). "Why a Loss for Hillary in 2016 Means a Win in 2020". Berkeley Political Review. Retrieved 29 October 2015.
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