United States Senate election in North Carolina, 2014

United States Senate election in North Carolina, 2014
North Carolina
November 4, 2014 (2014-11-04)
 
Thom Tillis official portrait.jpg
Kay Hagan official photo.jpg
Nominee Thom Tillis Kay Hagan
Party Republican Democratic
Popular vote 1,423,259 1,377,651
Percentage 48.8% 47.3%

Election results by county
  Hagan—70-80%
  Hagan—60-70%
  Hagan—50-60%
  Hagan—<50%
  Tillis—<50%
  Tillis—50-60%
  Tillis—60-70%
  Tillis—70-80%
U.S. Senator before election

Kay Hagan
Democratic

 Elected U.S. Senator

Thom Tillis
Republican

The 2014 United States Senate election in North Carolina took place on November 4, 2014, to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent the State of North Carolina, concurrently with other elections to the United States Senate in other states and elections to the United States House of Representatives and various state and local elections. On May 6, 2014, the primary occurred.

Incumbent Democratic Senator Kay Hagan ran for re-election to a second term in office. She faced Republican Thom Tillis, the Speaker of the North Carolina House of Representatives, and Libertarian Sean Haugh, his party's nominee for the U.S. Senate in 2002, in the general election. Tillis defeated Hagan by about forty-five thousand votes.[1]

Democratic primary

Candidates

Declared

Withdrew

Results

Democratic primary election results[9]
Party Candidate Votes %
Democratic Kay Hagan (Incumbent) 372,209 77.16
Democratic Will Stewart 66,903 13.87
Democratic Ernest T. Reeves 43,257 8.97
Total votes 482,579 100

Republican primary

Candidates

The eight Republican candidates on the 2014 U.S. Senate primary ballot were the most in party history in North Carolina, more than the seven on the ballot in the 2002 Republican primary won by Elizabeth Dole.[10]

Declared

Withdrew

Declined

Endorsements

Polling

Primary
Poll source Date(s)
administered		 Sample
size		 Margin of
error		 Ted
Alexander		 Alex
Bradshaw		 Greg
Brannon		 Heather
Grant		 Mark
Harris		 Edward
Kryn		 Jim
Snyder		 Thom
Tillis		 Other/
Undecided
Public Policy Polling May 3–4, 2014 925 ± 3.2% 2% 0% 28% 4% 15% 1% 1% 40% 11%
Public Policy Polling April 26–28, 2014 694 ± 3.7% 2% 1% 20% 5% 11% 2% 3% 46% 12%
SurveyUSA April 16–22, 2014 392 ± 5% 1% 1% 20% 2% 15% 2% 2% 39% 19%
Public Policy Polling April 3–6, 2014 314 ± 5.5% 6% 5% 15% 7% 11% 1% 2% 18% 34%
SurveyUSA March 27–31, 2014 433 ± 4.8% 6% 1% 15% 6% 11% 2% 3% 23% 34%
SurveyUSA March 19–23, 2014 405 ± 5% 1% 2% 13% 5% 9% 0% 5% 27% 38%
SurveyUSA March 17–19, 2014 405 ± 5% 7% 4% 15% 11% 6% 3% 4% 28% 23%
Public Policy Polling March 6–9, 2014 392 ± 5% 7% 6% 14% 11% 7% 1% 4% 14% 36%
American Insights February 11–15, 2014 168 ± 7.6% — — 4% 4% 7% — — 11% 74%
Public Policy Polling February 6–9, 2014 305 ± 5.6% 10% — 13% 13% 8% 2% — 20% 34%
Poll source Date(s)
administered		 Sample
size		 Margin of
error		 Philip
Berger		 Greg
Brannon		 Jim
Cain		 Renee
Ellmers		 Bill
Flynn		 Virginia
Foxx		 Heather
Grant		 Mark
Harris		 Thom
Tillis		 Lynn
Wheeler		 Other/
Undecided
Public Policy Polling January 9–12, 2014 575 ± 4.1% — 11% — — 7% — 11% 8% 19% — 44%
Public Policy Polling December 5–8, 2013 529 ± 4.3% — 11% — — 8% — 11% 12% 13% — 44%
Public Policy Polling November 8–11, 2013 498 ± 4.4% — 11% — — — — 8% 14% 20% — 47%
Public Policy Polling September 6–9, 2013 311 ± 5.6% 13% 6% 11% — — — 8% 5% 12% 2% 43%
Public Policy Polling August 8–11, 2013 344 ± 5.3% 9% 7% 9% — — 18% 4% 4% 8% 2% 40%
22% — — — — — — — 23% — 56%
Public Policy Polling July 12–14, 2013 373 ± 5.1% 11% 7% 11% 11% — 16% — 1% 5% 3% 35%
22% — — 18% — — — — 21% — 39%
— — — 25% — — — — 32% — 43%
Public Policy Polling June 12–14, 2013 374 ± 5.1% 11% 7% 8% 9% — 23% — 4% 9% 3% 27%
Poll source Date(s)
administered		 Sample
size		 Margin of
error		 Philip
Berger		 Cherie
Berry		 Greg
Brannon		 Renee
Ellmers		 Terry
Embler		 Dan
Forest		 Virginia
Foxx		 George
Holding		 Patrick
McHenry		 Thom
Tillis		 Other/
Undecided
Public Policy Polling May 17–20, 2013 366 ± 5.1% 10% 14% 7% 10% — — 15% — — 6% 38%
Public Policy Polling April 11–14, 2013 468 ± 4.5% 11% 18% 6% 12% 1% — 13% — — 7% 32%
Public Policy Polling March 7–10, 2013 530 ± 4.3% 8% 12% 4% 10% 1% 18% 13% — 7% 2% 24%
Public Policy Polling February 7–10, 2013 518 ± 4.3% 7% 18% 5% 10% 1% — 18% 3% 10% 3% 27%
Poll source Date(s)
administered		 Sample
size		 Margin of
error		 Philip
Berger		 Renee
Ellmers		 Virginia
Foxx		 George
Holding		 Richard
Hudson		 Patrick
McHenry		 Mark
Meadows		 Sue
Myrick		 Robert
Pittenger		 Thom
Tillis		 Other/
Undecided
Public Policy Polling January 10–13, 2013 449 ± 4.6% 5% 11% 21% 2% 5% 15% — — 6% 2% 33%
Public Policy Polling December 6–9, 2012 462 ± 4.6% — 11% 17% 9% 6% 13% 4% 14% — 2% 25%
Runoff

Results

Republican primary election results[9]
Party Candidate Votes %
Republican Thom Tillis 223,174 45.68
Republican Greg Brannon 132,630 27.15
Republican Mark Harris 85,727 17.55
Republican Heather Grant 22,971 4.70
Republican Jim Snyder 9,414 1.93
Republican Ted Alexander 9,258 1.89
Republican Alex Lee Bradshaw 3,528 0.72
Republican Edward Kryn 1,853 0.38
Total votes 488,555 100

Libertarian primary

Candidates

Declared

Results

Libertarian primary election results[9]
Party Candidate Votes %
Libertarian Sean Haugh 1,226 60.69
Libertarian Tim D'Annunzio 794 39.31
Total votes 2,020 100

Other parties

Certified write-in candidates

General election

Candidates

Outside spending

In July 2014, Jim Morrill of The Charlotte Observer calculated that as of the end of June, more than $26 million had been spent by outside advocacy groups on the election, with $17 million of it attacking Hagan or supporting Tillis and less than $9 million supporting Hagan or attacking Tillis. By contrast, outside groups spent $25 million during the entire 2008 election. He reported that only $11.4 million had been reported to the FEC, with the rest of the "dark money" coming from groups that did not have to disclose their donors. 27% of the money spent supporting Tillis came from groups required to disclose their donors whereas 69% of the money supporting Hagan did so.[57]

The final cost of outside spending according to Opensecrets.org place the amounts at $8.5 million for Hagan and $35.5 million attacking Tillis, and $13.7 million for Tillis and $20.9 million attacking Hagan, placing the totals by candidate at $44 million for Hagan, and $34.6 million for Tillis. [58]

Debates

Three televised debates between the candidates were held: the first on September 3 moderated by Norah O'Donnell of CBS, the second on October 7 moderated by George Stephanopoulos of ABC, and the third (the only one to feature Sean Haugh) on October 9 moderated by Jon Evans of WECT-TV.[59]

Video of the first debate is available here, with the second here and the third here.

Polling

Poll source Date(s)
administered		 Sample
size		 Margin of
error		 Kay
Hagan (D)		 Thom
Tillis (R)		 Sean
Haugh (L)		 Other Undecided
Public Policy Polling November 1–3, 2014 1,333 ± 2.7% 46% 44% 5% — 6%
48% 46% — — 6%
Public Policy Polling October 30–31, 2014 738 ± ? 46% 45% 4% — 5%
YouGov October 25–31, 2014 1,727 ± 3% 44% 41% — 3% 12%
Gravis Marketing October 29–30, 2014 1,006 ± 3% 46% 47% — — 8%
Civitas Institute October 29–30, 2014 600 ± 4% 41% 41% 6% — 10%
45% 44% — — 11%
Harper Polling October 28–30, 2014 511 ± 4.34% 44% 46% 6% — 4%
45% 48% — — 7%
Fox News October 28–30, 2014 909 ± 3% 43% 42% 4% 1% 9%
CNN/ORC October 27–30, 2014 559 LV ± 4% 48% 46% 4% — 2%
896 RV ± 3.5% 47% 41% 8% — 4%
Rasmussen Reports October 28–29, 2014 982 ± 3% 47% 46% — 3% 3%
Public Policy Polling October 28–29, 2014 657 ± ? 47% 46% 4% — 3%
Vox Populi October 26–27, 2014 615 ± 3.95% 43% 48% — — 9%
Monmouth University October 23–26, 2014 432 ± 4.7% 48% 46% 1% — 4%
Elon University October 21–25, 2014 687 LV ± 3.74% 44.7% 40.7% — 6.3% 6.6%
996 RV ± 3.11% 44.8% 37.5% — 7.7% 8.5%
SurveyUSA October 21–25, 2014 802 ± 4% 44% 44% 5% 3% 5%
NBC News/Marist October 19–23, 2014 756 LV ± 3.6% 43% 43% 7% <1% 6%
1,070 RV ± 3% 42% 40% 8% 1% 9%
CBS News/NYT/YouGov October 16–23, 2014 1,910 ± 4% 44% 41% 2% 0% 13%
SurveyUSA October 16–20, 2014 568 ± 4.2% 46% 43% 6% — 5%
Public Policy Polling October 16–18, 2014 780 ± 3.5% 46% 43% 5% — 7%
47% 44% — — 8%
Gravis Marketing October 16–18, 2014 1,022 ± 3% 43% 48% — — 9%
Civitas Institute October 15–18, 2014 600 ± 4% 41% 42% 6% — 11%
44% 44% — — 12%
SurveyUSA October 10–12, 2014 554 ± 4.2% 44% 41% 7% — 8%
45% 46% — — 9%
High Point University Sep. 30–Oct. 2 & 4–9, 2014 584 ± 4.1% 39.5% 40.4% 7% — 13%
Rasmussen Reports October 6–7, 2014 970 ± 3% 48% 46% — 2% 4%
Suffolk University October 4–7, 2014 500 ± 4.4% 46.8% 45.4% 4.4% — 3.4%
Morey Group October 1–6, 2014 956 ± 3.2% 40.1% 37.8% — 2% 20.2%
NBC News/Marist September 27–October 1, 2014 665 LV ± 3.8% 44% 40% 7% <1% 9%
1,132 RV ± 2.9% 42% 37% 8% 1% 12%
Greenberg Quinlan Rosner September 25–October 1, 2014 1,000 ± 2.09% 45% 41% — 14%
CBS News/NYT/YouGov September 20–October 1, 2014 2,002 ± 3% 46% 45% 2% 1% 6%
Civitas September 25, 27–28, 2014 600 ± 4% 46% 41% 4% 1% 8%
860 ± 3.5% 50% 43% — — 8%
CNN/ORC September 22–25, 2014 595 LV ± 4% 46% 43% 7% — 4%
860 ± 3.5% 46% 39% 9% — 6%
Gravis Marketing September 22–23, 2014 860 ± 3% 46% 42% — — 12%
Global Strategy Group September 16–18, 2014 600 ± 4.9% 45% 41% 5% — 9%
High Point University September 13–18, 2014 410 ± 5% 42% 40% 6% — 12%
Fox News September 14–16, 2014 605 ± 4% 41% 36% 6% — 13%
Public Policy Polling September 11–14, 2014 1,266 ± 2.8% 44% 40% 5% — 11%
46% 42% — — 12%
Civitas Institute September 9–10, 2014 490 ± 4.5% 46% 43% 5% — 6%
47% 46% — — 7%
Rasmussen Reports September 8–10, 2014 1,000 ± 4% 45% 39% — 6% 9%
American Insights September 5–10, 2014 459 ± 4.6% 46% 36% 6% — 13%
Elon University September 5–9, 2014 629 LV ± 3.91% 44.9% 40.8% — 9.1% 5.2%
983 RV ± 3.13% 42.7% 36.8% — 10.7% 9.8%
Garin-Hart-Yang September 3–6, 2014 802 ± 3.5% 48% 45% — — 7%
CBS News/NYT/YouGov August 18–September 2, 2014 2,059 ± 3% 42% 43% 5% 0% 10%
Suffolk University August 16–19, 2014 500 ± 4.4% 45.4% 43% 5.2% — 6.4%
Public Policy Polling August 14–17, 2014 856 ± 3.4% 42% 38% 8% — 13%
43% 42% — — 14%
Rasmussen Reports August 5–6, 2014 750 ± 4% 40% 45% — 6% 9%
Civitas Institute July 28–29, 2014 600 ± 4% 41% 39% 7% — 12%
43% 45% — — 10%
Gravis Marketing July 22–27, 2014 1,380 ± 3% 44% 41% — — 15%
CBS News/NYT/YouGov July 5–24, 2014 2,678 ± 3.5% 44% 45% — 2% 7%
Public Policy Polling July 17–20, 2014 1,062 ± 3% 41% 34% 8% — 16%
42% 39% — — 19%
Civitas Institute June 18–19 & 22, 2014 600 ± 4% 42% 36% 9% — 12%
47% 43% — — 9%
Public Policy Polling June 12–15, 2014 1,076 ± 3% 39% 34% 11% — 16%
42% 38% — — 20%
Magellan Strategies June 5–8, 2014 700 ± 3.7% 47% 46% — — 7%
Civitas Institute May 20–22, 2014 600 ± 4% 36% 39% 8% — 15%
41% 46% — — 12%
Public Policy Polling May 9–11, 2014 877 ± 3.3% 38% 36% 11% — 15%
41% 41% — — 18%
Rasmussen Reports May 7–8, 2014 750 ± 4% 44% 45% — 5% 7%
Magellan Strategies April 14–15, 2014 804 ± 3.46% 43% 43% — 8% 6%
New York Times/Kaiser Family April 8–15, 2014 900 ± ? 42% 40% — 5% 14%
Public Policy Polling April 3–6, 2014 740 ± 3.6% 43% 41% — — 16%
SurveyUSA March 27–31, 2014 1,489 ± 2.6% 45% 46% — — 9%
Public Policy Polling March 6–9, 2014 884 ± 3.3% 45% 43% — — 13%
Hickman Analytics February 17–20, 2014 400 ± 4.9% 45% 41% — — 13%
American Insights February 11–15, 2014 611 ± 4% 38% 35% — — 26%
Public Policy Polling February 6–9, 2014 708 ± 3.7% 40% 42% — — 17%
Rasmussen Reports January 22–23, 2014 500 ± 4.5% 40% 47% — 3% 10%
Harper Polling January 20–21, 2014 778 ± 3.51% 44% 44% — — 12%
Public Policy Polling January 9–12, 2014 1,384 ± 2.6% 42% 43% — — 15%
Public Policy Polling December 5–8, 2013 1,281 ± 2.7% 44% 42% — — 14%
Public Policy Polling November 8–11, 2013 701 ± 4% 44% 42% — — 14%
Public Policy Polling October 4–6, 2013 746 ± ?% 47% 40% — — 13%
Public Policy Polling September 6–9, 2013 600 ± 4% 51% 36% — — 14%
Public Policy Polling August 8–11, 2013 600 ± 4% 47% 39% — — 14%
Public Policy Polling July 12–14, 2013 600 ± 4% 49% 38% — — 12%
Public Policy Polling June 12–14, 2013 500 ± 4.4% 45% 40% — — 15%
Public Policy Polling May 17–20, 2013 500 ± 4.4% 48% 41% — — 11%
Public Policy Polling April 11–14, 2013 601 ± 4% 49% 39% — — 11%
Public Policy Polling March 7–10, 2013 611 ± 4% 50% 36% — — 14%
Public Policy Polling February 7–10, 2013 600 ± 4% 46% 38% — — 16%
Public Policy Polling January 10–13, 2013 608 ± 4% 47% 37% — — 16%
Public Policy Polling December 6–9, 2012 578 ± 4.1% 48% 38% — — 14%

Results

2014 North Carolina U.S. Senate election[60]
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Republican Thom Tillis 1,423,259 48.82% Increase 4.64
Democratic Kay Hagan 1,377,651 47.26% Decrease 5.39
Libertarian Sean Haugh 109,100 3.74% Increase 0.62
Other Write-ins 5,271 0.18% Increase 0.14
Plurality 45,608 1.56%
Turnout 2,915,281
Republican gain from Democratic Swing Increase 5.0

See also

References

  1. ↑ "Republicans seize Senate, gaining full control of Congress". November 5, 2014. Retrieved November 5, 2014.
  2. ↑ CNN: Sen. Kay Hagan to run again in 2014
  3. 1 2 3 4 5 6 Miller, Joshua (November 13, 2012). "Hagan Targeted by GOP, Ready for 2014 N.C. Race". Roll Call. Retrieved November 17, 2012.
  4. 1 2 NC State Board of Elections: Candidate filing list
  5. ↑ News & Observer: 2 long-shot Democrats challenge Kay Hagan
  6. ↑ News & Observer: Kay Hagan gets a challenger
  7. ↑ Fayetteville Observer
  8. ↑ SenatorWestphal.com - on his site, Westphal wrote: "I could not raise the $1470 filing fee for the Senate race in North Carolina, therefore, I am heading to Fort Myers on February 28th. It is my intention to file for the House of Representatives in the 11th District, which comprises [sic] of the Fort Myers area."
  9. 1 2 3 NC State Board of Elections website
  10. ↑ Ostermeier, Eric (May 6, 2014). "North Carolina GOP Eyes 2nd Ever US Senate Primary Runoff". Smart Politics.
  11. ↑ Shelby Star
  12. ↑ Dr. Greg Brannon steps up to challenge Hagan in 2014
  13. ↑ Heather Grant to run for U.S. Senate seat - journalpatriot: News
  14. ↑ Trygstad, Kyle. "Conservative Preacher Joins North Carolina Senate Primary". Roll Call. Retrieved 12 September 2013.
  15. ↑ Archived February 1, 2014 at the Wayback Machine
  16. ↑ WBTV/Associated Press
  17. ↑ WRAL/AP: Tillis says he'll run for US Senate
  18. 1 2 3 4 Mimms, Sarah (February 13, 2013). "N.C. Labor Commissioner Considering Run Against Hagan". National Journal. Retrieved February 14, 2013.
  19. ↑ "Terry Embler - As many if not most have noticed, I have...". Facebook. 2013-05-14. Retrieved 2014-07-26.
  20. ↑ Fox 8
  21. ↑ John Frank (January 30, 2014). "Republican Bill Flynn takes early exit from US Senate race". News Observer. Retrieved January 31, 2014.
  22. ↑ News & Observer Under the Dome: Phil Berger won't run for US Senate
  23. ↑ Frank, John (May 29, 2013). "Cherie Berry says she won't run for U.S. Senate". The News & Observer. Retrieved May 29, 2013.
  24. ↑ Robertson, Gary D. (September 18, 2013). "Brunstetter considering US Senate bid". WRAL-TV. Associated Press. Retrieved September 18, 2013.
  25. ↑ News & Observer Under the Dome: Pete Brunstetter says he won't seek US Senate seat
  26. ↑ Trygstad, Kyle (May 17, 2013). "Ambassador Eyeing Kay Hagan Challenge". Roll Call. Retrieved May 17, 2013.
  27. ↑ House Republican Won't Run for Senate #NCSEN | At the Races
  28. ↑ Morrill, Jim (March 13, 2013). "If nominated, he will not run ....". Campaign Tracker. Retrieved March 14, 2013.
  29. ↑ Cahn, Emily (August 20, 2013). "Virginia Foxx Says No to Senate Bid in North Carolina". Roll Call. Retrieved August 20, 2013.
  30. ↑ Cahn, Emily (April 11, 2013). "North Carolina: McHenry Won't Run Against Hagan". Roll Call. Retrieved April 11, 2013.
  31. ↑ Morrill, Jim (April 26, 2013). "Table Talk". Charlotte Business Journal. Retrieved May 18, 2013.
  32. ↑ "Terry Embler - As I am no longer in the running for the office, I...". Facebook. August 26, 2013. Retrieved September 11, 2014.
  33. ↑ Frank, John (March 6, 2014). "Utah Sen. Mike Lee endorses Greg Brannon in contested Senate primary". News and Observer. Retrieved 6 March 2014.
  34. ↑ Liberty Circle: Congressman Thomas Massie Endorses Greg Brannon for U.S. Senate
  35. ↑ "Rand Paul Endorses in North Carolina Primary". Roll Call. October 16, 2013. Retrieved October 17, 2013.
  36. ↑ Ron Paul 2014 Endorsements | LibertyPAC
  37. ↑ News & Observer: Coulter endorses Brannon, bashes Tillis
  38. ↑ Winston-Salem Journal
  39. ↑ "Mark Levin endorses Greg Brannon for US Senate". The Right Scoop. 2014-05-01. Retrieved 2014-07-26.
  40. ↑ FreedomWorks backs Brannon in N.C. - Katie Glueck - POLITICO.com
  41. ↑ Gun Owners of America Endorses Greg Brannon for US Senate — Brannon for US Senate
  42. ↑ NAGR PAC Endorses Greg Brannon for US Senate — Brannon for US Senate
  43. ↑ News & Observer Morning Memo (Nov. 25, 2013)
  44. 1 2 3 News & Observer
  45. ↑ News & Observer
  46. ↑ Charlotte Observer
  47. ↑ N&R endorses Jim Snyder in Republican US Senate primary
  48. 1 2 Romney endorses Tillis in North Carolina | TheHill
  49. ↑ http://atr.rollcall.com/2016-rand-paul-jeb-bush-north-carolina-senate http://atr.rollcall.com/2016-rand-paul-jeb-bush-north-carolina-senate/
  50. ↑ Governor Pat McCrory endorses Thom Tillis in Senate race
  51. ↑ Romney endorses Tillis | Under the Dome Blog | NewsObserver.com
  52. 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50 51 52 53 54 55 56 57 58 59 60 61 62 63 64 65 66 67 68 Legislative Endorsements Roll In for Thom Tillis | Thom Tillis
  53. ↑ Charlotte Observer: Controversial former candidate making Senate bid
  54. ↑ Charlotte Observer
  55. 1 2 3 State Board of Elections: CERTIFIED UNAFFILIATED AND WRITE-IN CANDIDATES
  56. ↑ Charlotte Observer: Indian Trail councilman tenders resignation – in Klingon
  57. ↑ "Outside spending, ‘dark’ money fuel N.C. Senate race". The Charlotte Observer. July 4, 2014. Retrieved September 3, 2014.
  58. ↑ "2014 Outside Spending, by Race". opensecrets.org. November 10, 2014. Retrieved November 10, 2014.
  59. ↑ News & Observer: What NC voters might learn from final Hagan-Tillis debates
  60. ↑ NC State Board of Elections website

External links

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