United States Senate election in Arizona, 2010

United States Senate election in Arizona, 2010
Arizona
November 2, 2010
 
Nominee John McCain Rodney Glassman
Party Republican Democratic
Popular vote 1,005,615 592,011
Percentage 58.7% 34.5%

County results
U.S. Senator before election

John McCain
Republican

 Elected U.S. Senator

John McCain
Republican

The 2010 United States Senate election in Arizona took place on November 2, 2010 along with other elections to the United States Senate in other states as well as elections to the United States House of Representatives and various state and local elections. The primaries were held on August 24, 2010.[1] Incumbent Republican U.S. Senator John McCain won re-election to a fifth term.[2]

Democratic primary

Background

Many considered popular Democratic Governor Janet Napolitano a possible Democratic challenger to McCain, and some very early polling showed her ahead or competitive with him in a prospective 2010 matchup.[2][3] Napolitano was term-limited as governor in 2010, and had openly discussed the possibility of a Senate race,[2] especially given McCain's 2008 electoral results in the Democratic-trending state.[4]

However, the December 1, 2008 nomination by President-elect Barack Obama of Napolitano to be the new Secretary of Homeland Security,[5][6] made it appear unlikely that she would challenge McCain.

In February 2009, Arizona Senate minority leader Jorge Luis Garcia was saying: "There hasn't been any discussion about any [candidates]. The Democratic Party would be willing to lend support to a candidate against Senator McCain. It would be very expensive—very, very, very expensive."[7] In April 2009, only one person had announced a candidacy, Rudy Garcia, the former mayor of Bell Gardens, California.[8] In October 2009, national Democratic leaders were saying that they were not bothering to recruit anyone to face McCain,[9] but that same month, Tucson Councilman Rodney Glassman filed an exploratory committee for this Senate seat at the urging of Arizona Attorney General and Arizona gubernatorial candidate Terry Goddard.[10]

Other possible Democratic challengers mentioned have included Phoenix mayor Phil Gordon,[4] U.S. Congresswoman Gabrielle Giffords,[4] and Terry Goddard.[4] However, Goddard had formally announced his candidacy for the 2010 Arizona gubernatorial race,[11] and Phil Gordon was exploring a run for John Shadegg's Congressional seat in Arizona's 3rd district.[12]

Candidates

Polling

Poll source Date(s)
administered		 Sample
size		 Margin
of error		 John Dougherty Cathy Eden Rodney Glassman Randy Parraz Other Undecided
Rasmussen Reports (report) June 16, 2010 342 ± 5.0% 8% 11% 12% 9% 14% 46%
Rasmussen Reports (report) July 21, 2010 331 ± 5.5% 7% 11% 15% 10% 10% 47%

Debates

Debates were planned for:

Results

Democratic primary results[20]
Party Candidate Votes %
Democratic Rodney Glassman 86,881 34.7
Democratic Cathy Eden 66,421 26.5
Democratic John Dougherty 60,262 24.1
Democratic Randy Parraz 36,637 14.6
Total votes 250,201 100

Republican primary

Background

J.D. Hayworth
John McCain

Incumbent Republican senator John McCain lost his bid for President of the United States in the 2008 election on November 4, 2008. By November 18, he had indicated his intention to form a political action committee to run for Senate re-election in 2010.[2][21] McCain confirmed his decision at a press conference in Phoenix, Arizona on November 25, 2008, saying, "I intend to run again and will make an announcement at an appropriate time."[4] In his appearance, McCain made a point of shifting from discussion of national issues to local ones,[22] and followed up with renewed attention to the state during the next few months.[7] In February 2009, McCain began active fundraising efforts for his re-election campaign.[23]

McCain faced a possible Republican primary challenge.[22] He had won less than half the votes against the field of candidates in the 2008 Arizona Republican presidential primary,[22] and had only won the presidential contest in Arizona by 8.5 percentage points.[4] The person most mentioned as a possible primary challenger was radio talk show host and former U.S. Congressman J. D. Hayworth, who was being urged to run by his listeners.[22] (Hayworth had once been allied with McCain and had supported his 2000 presidential campaign, but the two diverged ideologically shortly thereafter.)[24] However, McCain's strong opposition to the economic stimulus package of 2009 warmed some conservatives to him and made a primary challenge less likely.[7]

As 2009 progressed, McCain got two announced primary challengers, U.S. Navy veteran and businessman Jim Deakin,[25] and Chris Simcox, the co-founder of the Minuteman Civil Defense Corps.[26] Simcox's April 2009 announcement of his candidacy garnered a fair amount of press attention; he stated that "John McCain has failed miserably in his duty to secure this nation's borders and protect the people of Arizona from the escalating violence and lawlessness. ... Coupled with his votes for reckless bailout spending and big government solutions to our nation's problems, John McCain is out of touch with everyday Arizonans. Enough is enough."[27]

In October 2009, Hayworth said that he was considering a primary challenge: "There's a great deal of respect for John as a historical figure. But he's long been at odds with the conservative base of the Republican Party and more recently with Arizonans."[9] Hayworth quoted a poll which said that 61 percent of Arizona Republicans thought McCain had lost touch with his party.[9] McCain had raised $4.7 million for his Senate re-election, and had access to more than $20 million leftover from his 2008 presidential effort.[9] A November 2009 Rasmussen Reports poll surprisingly showed that Hayworth was nearly even with McCain among likely Republican Party primary voters in the state.[28] As January 2010 progressed, McCain began running negative ads against Hayworth.[29] On January 22, 2010, Hayworth resigned from his talk radio position at KFYI, a necessary step to becoming a candidate.[29][30] On January 23, Hayworth announced at a meeting of the Arizona Republican Party State Committee that he did intend to run, and that a formal announcement would be forthcoming soon.[29][30]

As the contest began, some elements of the Tea Party movement supported Hayworth, but others stayed out of the contest,[31] and still others supported Jim Deakin. The threat from Hayworth helped account for McCain's sometimes-awkward reversals or softpedallings of his former positions on issues such as the bank bailouts, national security, campaign finance reform, and gays in the military; Hayworth said, "John is undergoing a campaign conversion."[24] McCain remained strong among party centrists and independents, and had strong financial resources.[24] McCain also had the endorsements of the entire Arizona congressional delegation.[32] Regardless, pundits predicted it would become "one of the country's fiercest political contests of 2010."[33]

Hayworth officially launched his bid on February 15, 2010, in Phoenix.[34] His announcement led Simcox to drop his campaign and endorse Hayworth, saying that he wanted to present a united conservative front.[34] Hayworth attracted the support of a good number of top-rated radio talk show hosts, including Michael Savage.[35] Hayworth called for a series of 10 debates between himself and McCain.[36] This echoed a proposal that McCain had unsuccessfully made to Obama during their 2008 presidential campaign; this time, McCain labeled the idea a "desperate publicity stunt."[36] With Hayworth using the campaign slogan "The Consistent Conservative," McCain backed off his reputation for unorthodoxy, saying, "I never considered myself a maverick. I consider myself a person who serves the people of Arizona to the best of his abilities."[37] McCain's former vice presidential running mate, Sarah Palin, staged a campaign appearance with him in late March; she said that McCain was deserving of support among Tea Party movement-types.[38] Many in the crowd came to see Palin rather than McCain and were unsure of whom they would vote for in the primary.[38]

Both candidates endorsed Arizona SB 1070, the anti-illegal immigration state law passed in April 2010 that aroused national controversy, and both made tough stands on border control central to their campaigns.[39] McCain retained a financial edge, having $4.6 million in hand at the end of the first quarter to Hayworth's $861,000.[39]

Hayworth's campaign began to struggle when infomercials he had made in 2007 came to light, which had pitched access to free government payment programs from a company that was accused of swindling thousands of people.[40] McCain ran television ads that labeled Hayworth a "huckster," and in return Hayworth's wife charged McCain with engaging in deliberate character assassination.[40] Hayworth also had difficulty rallying conservative backing due to his past support for Congressional earmarks and for his past associations with lobbyist Jack Abramoff.[40]

Hayworth was further harmed by stating that the United States never declared war on Germany during the Second World War,[41] when in fact it did on December 11, 1941.

During the summer, McCain began running immigration-themed ads featuring Pinal County sheriff Paul Babeu, who is also a strong supporter of SB 1070; however, Hayworth asked McCain to withdraw the ads because Babeu had recently appeared on the white nationalist radio show The Political Cesspool.[42]

Candidates

Polling

Poll source Date(s)
administered		 Sample
size		 Margin
of error		 Jim Deakin J.D. Hayworth John McCain Chris Simcox Other Undecided
Public Policy Polling (report) September 18–21, 2009 400 ± 4.5% –– –– 67% 17% –– 17%
Rasmussen Reports (report) November 18, 2009 570 ± 4.0% –– 43% 45% 4% 2% 7%
Tarrance Group (report) December 8–10, 2009 600 ± 4.1% –– 36% 56% –– –– —
Rasmussen Reports (report) January 20, 2010 502 ± 4.5% –– 31% 53% 4% 3% 8%
Rasmussen Reports (report) March 18, 2010 541 ± 4.0% –– 41% 48% –– 3% 8%
Research 2000 (report) March 29–31, 2010 600 ± 4.0% –– 37% 52% –– –– 11%
Rasmussen Reports (report) April 13, 2010 510 ± 4.0% –– 42% 47% –– 2% 8%
Behavior Research Center (report) April 12–25, 2010 666 ± 3.5% –– 28% 54% –– –– 18%
Rasmussen Reports (report) May 17, 2010 541 ± 4.5% –– 40% 52% –– 2% 6%
Rasmussen Reports (report) June 16, 2010 707 ± 4.0% 7% 36% 47% –– 1% 8%
Magellan Strategies (report) June 22, 2010 1,139 ± 2.9% –– 29% 52% –– 14% 5%
Behavior Research Strategies (report) June 30 – July 11, 2010 524 ± 4.4% 5% 19% 64% –– — 12%
Rasmussen Reports (report) July 21, 2010 595 ± 4.0% –– 34% 54% –– 7% 6%

Endorsements

McCain
Hayworth
Deakin

Results

Republican primary results[20]
Party Candidate Votes %
Republican John McCain (incumbent) 284,374 56.2
Republican J.D. Hayworth 162,502 32.1
Republican Jim Deakin 59,447 11.7
Total votes 506,323 100

General election

Candidates

Campaign

After spending over $20 million during the primaries, McCain still had more than $1 million cash on hand after the primary election. Glassman has criticized McCain on women's issues.[73] In August 2010, Glassman released a TV advertisement called "Arizona First."[74]

Debates

Predictions

Source Ranking As of
Cook Political Report Solid R[77] October 25, 2010
Rothenberg Safe R[78] October 22, 2010
Swing State Project Safe R
RealClearPolitics Safe R[79] October 25, 2010
Sabato's Crystal Ball Safe R[80] October 21, 2010
CQ Politics Safe R[81] October 25, 2010

Polling

Poll source Date(s)
administered		 Sample
size		 Margin of
error		 Rodney Glassman John McCain Other Undecided
Public Policy Polling September 18–21, 2009 617 ± 3.9% 25% 55% –– 20%
Research 2000 March 29–31, 2010 600 ± 4.0% 33% 52% –– 13%
Rasmussen Reports April 13, 2010 500 ± 4.5% 32% 54% 8% 6%
Public Policy Polling April 23–25, 2010 813 ± 3.4% 33% 49% –– 13%
Behavior Research Center April 12–25, 2010 666 ± 3.5% 24% 46% –– 30%
Rasmussen Reports May 17, 2010 1,000 ± 3.0% 28% 57% 9% 7%
Rasmussen Reports July 29, 2010 500 ± 4.5% 34% 53% 11% 3%
Rasmussen Reports August 25, 2010 500 ± 4.5% 31% 53% 10% 6%
Rasmussen Reports September 7, 2010 500 ± 4.5% 37% 51% 7% 6%
Rasmussen Reports October 4, 2010 750 ± 4.0% 33% 54% 8% 6%
Public Policy Polling October 23–24, 2010 664 ± 3.8% 38% 56% –– 6%
Rasmussen Reports October 28, 2010 500 ± 4.5% 32% 52% 9% 7%

Fundraising

Candidate (party) Receipts Disbursements Cash on hand Debt
John McCain (R) $20,077,490 $11,868,523 $472,777 $27,999
Rodney Glassman (D) $1,366,612 $1,087,161 $279,450 $500,000
Source: Federal Election Commission[82]

Results

United States Senate election in Arizona, 2010[83]
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Republican John McCain (incumbent) 1,005,615 59.07% -17.67%
Democratic Rodney Glassman 592,011 34.78% +14.16%
Libertarian David Nolan 80,097 4.71% +2.06%
Green Jerry Joslyn 24,603 1.45% N/A
Majority 413,604 24.30%
Total votes 1,702,326 100
Republican hold Swing

References

  1. ↑ Rudin, Ken (January 25, 2010). "Your 2010 Election Calendar". National Public Radio. Retrieved January 28, 2010.
  2. 1 2 3 4 Cillizza, Chris (November 19, 2008). "McCain's Next Step: Re-Election in 2010". The Washington Post. Retrieved December 2, 2008.
  3. ↑ Public Policy Polling Archived October 28, 2008 at the Wayback Machine
  4. 1 2 3 4 5 6 Kraushaar, Josh (November 25, 2008). "McCain: I intend to run again". The Politico. Retrieved December 6, 2008.
  5. ↑ change.gov (December 1, 2008). "Key members of Obama-Biden national security team announced" (Press release). Newsroom. Office of the President-elect. Retrieved December 1, 2008.
  6. ↑ "Obama names Napolitano to Cabinet post". Tucson Citizen. December 1, 2008. Retrieved December 1, 2008.
  7. 1 2 3 Darby, Seyward (February 23, 2009). "More Pain For McCain?". The New Republic. Retrieved February 23, 2009.
  8. ↑ "Home". Arizona on the Move. Retrieved June 14, 2010.
  9. 1 2 3 4 Newton-Small, Jay (October 8, 2009). "John McCain: Can He Mend Fences with the Right?". Time. Retrieved November 20, 2009.
  10. ↑ "Arizona". Tucson Fox News 11.
  11. ↑ "Arizona". Arizona Daily Star.
  12. ↑ "Arizona". Arizona Republic. Retrieved February 18, 2010.
  13. ↑ http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2010/04/06/rodney-glassman-mccain-or_n_527764.html Rodney Glassman: McCain (Or Hayworth) Gets First Serious Democratic Challenger The Huffington Post April 6, 2010
  14. ↑ "Former reporter enters Arizona's US Senate race – KOLD News 13". Kold.com. May 7, 2010. Retrieved June 14, 2010.
  15. ↑ "John Dougherty, Democrat For US Senate 2010". Johndougherty2010.com. Retrieved June 14, 2010.
  16. ↑ "Full Listing". Azsos.gov. Retrieved June 14, 2010.
  17. ↑ "HOME – Eden For Arizona". Edenforaz.com. Retrieved August 21, 2010.
  18. ↑ "Randy Parraz for U.S Senate :: New Challenges Demand New Leaders". Parrazforchange.com. October 21, 2008. Retrieved August 21, 2010.
  19. 1 2 3 Dylan Smith (June 25, 2010). "Democratic Senate debates set; Glassman agrees to 2 of 3". Retrieved June 28, 2010.
  20. 1 2 "Arizona Senate Primary Results". Politico. August 24, 2010. Retrieved August 24, 2010.
  21. ↑ Kellman, Laurie (November 18, 2008). "McCain to seek 5th Senate term". Associated Press for My Way News. Retrieved December 6, 2008.
  22. 1 2 3 4 Byron York (December 2, 2008). "Could John McCain Lose Again?". National Review Online. Retrieved December 6, 2008.
  23. ↑ Macolm, Andrew (February 11, 2009). "John McCain starts raising money for Senate term No. 5". Los Angeles Times. Retrieved February 14, 2009.
  24. 1 2 3 4 5 Steinhauer, Jennifer (February 9, 2010). "From Right of Radio Dial, Challenge to McCain". The New York Times. p. A1.
  25. ↑ "Jim Deakin for United States Senate". Jimdeakin.com. Retrieved June 14, 2010.
  26. ↑ Smith, Ben (April 21, 2009). "McCain Facing 2010 Primary". The Politico. Retrieved April 22, 2009.
  27. ↑ Mooney, Alexander (April 21, 2009). "McCain gets conservative primary challenger". CNN. Retrieved April 23, 2009.
  28. ↑ "Election 2010: Arizona Senate GOP Primary". Rasmussen Reports. November 20, 2009. Archived from the original on November 22, 2009. Retrieved November 20, 2009.
  29. 1 2 3 "Dawn Teo: JD Hayworth Resigns: Tea Party Talk Show Host Will Run Against McCain". Huffington Post. January 23, 2010. Retrieved June 14, 2010.
  30. 1 2 Wilson, Reid (January 23, 2010). "Hotline on Call: Hayworth to Challenge McCain". The Hotline (National Journal). Retrieved January 25, 2010.
  31. ↑ "Arizona Tea Party groups not taking sides in Hayworth-McCain race". Phoenix Business Journal. March 1, 2010. Retrieved August 12, 2010.
  32. 1 2 3 4 "blogs – AZ/DC Blog – azdc – Kyl, Flake, Shadegg and Franks endorse McCain". Azcentral.com. Retrieved June 14, 2010.
  33. 1 2 Cadei, Emily. "McCain-Hayworth Slugfest in Arizona?". CQ Politics. Retrieved June 14, 2010.
  34. 1 2 3 Fischer, Howard (February 15, 2010). "Blasting McCain, Hayworth launches campaign for U.S. Senate". Arizona Daily Star. Capitol Media Services. Retrieved February 15, 2010.
  35. 1 2 3 4 5 David Catanese (February 16, 2010). "Talk-show titans take on McCain". Yahoo! News. The Politico.
  36. 1 2 3 Miller, Sean J. (February 25, 2010). "Pawlenty backs McCain, Hayworth calls for 10 debates – The Hill's Ballot Box". Thehill.com. Retrieved June 14, 2010.
  37. ↑ Margolick, David. "The McCain Mutiny", Newsweek (April 3, 2010). Retrieved April 6, 2010.
  38. 1 2 Zeleny, Jeff (March 26, 2010). "Differences Set Aside, Palin Lends McCain Aid". The New York Times.
  39. 1 2 Slevin, Peter. "Hard line on immigration marks GOP race in Arizona", The Washington Post (May 22, 2010). Retrieved May 22, 2010.
  40. 1 2 3 Cooper, Jonathan J. (July 24, 2010). "In Ariz. Senate race, Hayworth hopes to slay giant". Atlanta Journal-Constitution. Associated Press.
  41. ↑ http://www.phoenixnewtimes.com/news/jd-hayworth-calls-john-mccains-world-war-ii-history-lesson-shameful-6654605
  42. ↑ Collum, Lindsey (July 21, 2010). "Hayworth asks McCain to dump Pinal County Sheriff ads". The Arizona Republic. Retrieved July 22, 2010.
  43. 1 2 http://www.abc15.com/content/news/phoenixmetro/north/story/Gov-Brewer-picks-a-side-endorses-McCain-s/FVJqeZ6_DUav3HruCO4_DQ.cspx
  44. ↑ "Jeb Bush endorses McCain in Arizona". CNN. March 10, 2010. Retrieved May 27, 2010.
  45. 1 2 "2 former Arizona governors endorse McCain". KGUN-TV. Retrieved February 25, 2010.
  46. 1 2 "Ex-Reps. Salmon, Kolbe go with McCain over Hayworth". The Arizona Republic. Retrieved February 25, 2010.
  47. ↑ "McDonnell will endorse McCain for re-election". The Washington Post.
  48. ↑ Holland, Steve (January 20, 2010). "Palin to campaign for McCain in Arizona". Reuters. Retrieved June 14, 2010.
  49. ↑ "Romney Endorses McCain " Liveshots". Liveshots.blogs.foxnews.com. February 23, 2010. Retrieved June 14, 2010.
  50. ↑ "Fred Thompson endorses John McCain – Phoenix Business Journal". Bizjournals.com. February 17, 2010. Retrieved June 14, 2010.
  51. ↑ Arizona's ownGila Courier (March 18, 2010). "Rep. Andy Tobin Endorses John McCain". Gila Courier. Retrieved June 14, 2010.
  52. ↑ "MediaPost Publications John McCain Campaign Gets Social 02/05/2010". Mediapost.com. Retrieved June 14, 2010.
  53. ↑ "Former D-back Gonzalez backs McCain". KTAR.com. Retrieved June 14, 2010.
  54. ↑ "Endorsements stacking up for McCain". CNN. February 10, 2010. Retrieved May 27, 2010.
  55. ↑ Schouten, Fredreka (April 5, 2010). "Chamber endorses Sen. McCain in Arizona primary battle". USA Today. Retrieved May 27, 2010.
  56. ↑ "NRA endorses McCain". June 3, 2010.
  57. ↑ "blogs – AZ/DC Blog – azdc – Ex-Reps. Salmon, Kolbe go with McCain over Hayworth". Azcentral.com. Retrieved June 14, 2010.
  58. ↑ Alexander, Rachel (February 13, 2010). "Why J.D. Hayworth Will Beat McCain for U.S. Senate " Intellectual Conservative Politics and philosophy". Intellectualconservative.com. Retrieved June 14, 2010.
  59. 1 2 3 "Endorsements | J.D. Hayworth 2010". Jdforsenate.com. July 25, 2010. Retrieved August 21, 2010.
  60. ↑ "APA Endorses JD Hayworth for US Senate". Azplea.com. Retrieved June 14, 2010.
  61. ↑ "Gun Owners of America Political Victory Endorses Hayworth for Congress". Ammoland.com. February 19, 2010. Retrieved June 14, 2010.
  62. ↑ Malkin, Michelle (April 23, 2010). "John S. McCain, Will You Please Go Now?". Michelle Malkin. Retrieved June 14, 2010.
  63. ↑ "Cousin John Suddenly Decides to Get in Touch With His Inner Tom Tancredo". The Other McCain. March 30, 2010. Retrieved June 14, 2010.
  64. ↑ "Hayworth Endorsed by National Association of Police Organizations". Jdforsenate.com. February 25, 2010. Retrieved June 14, 2010.
  65. ↑ "J.D. Hayworth Goes on the Offensive vs. John McCain". The Americano. April 21, 2010. Retrieved June 14, 2010.
  66. 1 2 "Pro-Life Leaders Favor Hayworth over McCain". Christiannewswire.com. Retrieved June 14, 2010.
  67. ↑ King, James (February 22, 2010). "J.D. Hayworth Draws Support of Phoenix Police Union, but McCain Gets Nod of Past PLEA Presidents – Phoenix News – Valley Fever". Blogs.phoenixnewtimes.com. Retrieved June 14, 2010.
  68. ↑ "Vote JD Hayworth in AZ, real change from status quo | Dr. Orly Taitz Esquire". Orlytaitzesq.com. June 22, 2010. Retrieved August 21, 2010.
  69. ↑ Kenneth Vogel. "A POLITICO survey: The tea party's least favorite Republicans". Politico.Com. Retrieved June 14, 2010.
  70. ↑ "Joe Kennedy: "I was WRONG WRONG WRONG ... Arizona you can do even better" | Ron Paul 2012 | Campaign for Liberty at the Daily Paul". Dailypaul.com. Retrieved June 14, 2010.
  71. ↑ "Arizona". Liberty Candidates.org. Retrieved June 14, 2010.
  72. ↑ http://www.ourcampaigns.com/CandidateDetail.html?CandidateID=244880
  73. ↑ http://www.rodneyglassman.com/2010/08/on-gender-equity-day-mccains-dismal-record-on-womens-issues-highlighted/
  74. ↑ http://www.rodneyglassman.com/2010/08/u-s-senate-candidate-rodney-glassman-launches-arizona-first-ad/
  75. ↑ http://www.google.com/hostednews/ap/article/ALeqM5jJxL5LokCV0LqCQkF_eMV0P4gtZQD9IG11NO0
  76. ↑ http://www.kpho.com/news/24886985/detail.html
  77. ↑ "Senate". Cook Political Report. Retrieved October 25, 2010.
  78. ↑ "Senate Ratings". Rothenberg Political Report. Retrieved October 25, 2010.
  79. ↑ "Battle for the Senate". RealClearPolitics. Retrieved October 25, 2010.
  80. ↑ "2010 Senate Ratings". Sabato's Crystal Ball. Retrieved October 25, 2010.
  81. ↑ "Race Ratings Chart: Senate". CQ Politics. Retrieved October 25, 2010.
  82. ↑ "2010 House and Senate Campaign Finance for Arizona". fec.gov. Retrieved July 25, 2010.
  83. ↑ http://results.enr.clarityelections.com/AZ/22333/40707/en/summary.html

External links

Debates
Official campaign websites
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