United States presidential election in Tennessee, 2004

United States presidential election in Tennessee, 2004
Tennessee
November 2, 2004
 
Nominee George W. Bush John Kerry
Party Republican Democratic
Home state Texas Massachusetts
Running mate Dick Cheney John Edwards
Electoral vote 11 0
Popular vote 1,384,375 1,036,477
Percentage 56.8% 42.5%

County Results
  Kerry—60-70%
  Kerry—50-60%
  Kerry—<50%
  Bush—50-60%
  Bush—60-70%
  Bush—70-80%
President before election

George W. Bush
Republican

 Elected President

George W. Bush
Republican

The 2004 United States presidential election in Tennessee took place on November 2, 2004 throughout all 50 states and D.C., which was part of the 2004 United States presidential election. Voters chose 11 representatives, or electors to the Electoral College, who voted for President and Vice President.

Tennessee was won by incumbent President George W. Bush by a 14.3% margin of victory. Prior to the election, all 12 news organizations considered this a state Bush would win, or otherwise considered as a safe red state. In the past 14 presidential elections, the Republican nominee won 10 of them. The state trended more Republican by 10.4 points from Bush's performance in 2000. Bush won most of the counties and congressional districts in the state. Third party and independent candidates made up just 0.7% of the vote.

Primaries

The 2004 Tennessee primary took place on February 10, 2004 as part of the 2004 United States Democratic presidential primaries. The delegate allocation is Proportional. the candidates are awarded delegates in proportion to the percentage of votes received and is open to anyone. A total of 69 (of 85) delegates are awarded proportionally. A 15 percent threshold is required to receive delegates. Frontrunner John Kerry won the primary with Senator John Edwards and former general Wesley Clark both obtaining over 20% and receiving delegates.

Kerry won most of the counties and all the congressional districts. Although, Kerry didn't do well in the middle of the state, winning the 4th, 5th, and 6th CDs with less than 40% of the vote. Edwards won 4 counties in the state. In Sullivan County, Tennessee Edwards obtained 42% of the vote but lost to Kerry with a small margin. Clark gained over 30% of the vote in just 2 counties, including his best performance in Montgomery County, TN. The largest turnout came from Shelby County and Davidson county.

United States presidential primary election in Tennessee, 2004[1][2]
Party Candidate Votes Percentage Delegates
Democratic John Kerry 151,527 41.0% 31
Democratic John Edwards 97,914 26.5% 20
Democratic Wesley Clark 85,315 23.1% 18
Democratic Howard Dean 16,128 4.4% 0
Democratic Al Sharpton 6,107 1.7% 0
Democratic Joe Lieberman 3,213 0.9% 0
Democratic Uncommitted 2,727 0.7% 0
Democratic Carol Moseley-Braun 2,490 0.7% 0
Democratic Dennis Kucinich 2,279 0.6% 0
Democratic Richard Gephardt 1,402 0.4% 0
Democratic Lyndon Larouche 283 0.1% 0
Totals - 100.00% 69
Voter turnout % —

Campaign

Predictions

Elections in Tennessee

There were 12 news organizations who made state by state predictions of the election. Here are their last predictions before election day.[3]

  1. D.C. Political Report: Slight Republican
  2. Associated Press: Leans Bush
  3. CNN: Bush
  4. Cook Political Report: Lean Republican
  5. Newsweek: Solid Bush
  6. New York Times: Solid Bush
  7. Rasmussen Reports: Bush
  8. Research 2000: Solid Bush
  9. Washington Post: Bush
  10. Washington Times: Solid Bush
  11. Zogby International: Bush
  12. Washington Dispatch: Bush

Polling

Bush won every single pre-election poll, and won each with at least 49%. The final 3 polls averaged Bush leading 56% to 40%.[4]

Fundraising

Bush raised $4,636,916.[5] Kerry raised $1,187,742.[6]

Advertising and visits

Neither campaign advertised or visited this state during the fall election.[7][8]

Analysis

While the Republicans control slightly more than half of the state, Democrats have strong support in the cities of Memphis and Nashville and in parts of Middle Tennessee and in West Tennessee north and east of Memphis[9] The latter area includes a large rural African-American population.[10]

In the 2000 presidential election, Vice President Al Gore, a former U.S. Senator from Tennessee, couldn't carry his home state. The majority of voters support for Republican George W. Bush increased in 2004, with his margin of victory in the state increasing from 4% in 2000 to 14% in 2004.[11] Southern Democratic nominees (e.g., Lyndon B. Johnson, Jimmy Carter, Bill Clinton) usually fare better in Tennessee, especially among split-ticket voters outside the metropolitan areas.

Results

United States presidential election in Tennessee, 2004
Party Candidate Running mate Votes Percentage Electoral votes
Republican George W. Bush Dick Cheney 1,384,375 56.8% 11
Democratic John Kerry John Edwards 1,036,477 42.5% 0
Independent Ralph Nader Peter Camejo 8,992 0.4% 0
Libertarian Michael Badnarik Richard Campagna 4,866 0.2% 0
Constitution Party Michael Peroutka Chuck Baldwin 2,570 0.1% 0
Green Party David Cobb Pat LaMarche 33 0.0% 0
Socialist Walt Brown Mary Alice Herbert 6 0.0% 0
Totals - 100.00% 11
Voter turnout (Voting age population) 54.8%

By county

County Kerry% Kerry# Bush% Bush# Others% Others#
Anderson 40.7% 12,896 58.4% 18,510 0.9% 276
Bedford 38.4% 5,268 60.9% 8,351 0.6% 87
Benton 54.6% 3,869 44.6% 3,161 0.8% 60
Bledsoe 40.1% 1,927 59.2% 2,849 0.7% 33
Blount 30.9% 15,047 68.2% 33,241 0.9% 424
Bradley 26.5% 9,431 72.8% 25,951 0.7% 255
Campbell 43.7% 6,163 55.7% 7,859 0.7% 96
Cannon 45.9% 2,515 53.5% 2,931 0.6% 35
Carroll 43.1% 5,070 56.2% 6,605 0.7% 82
Carter 28.7% 6,395 70.7% 15,768 0.7% 150
Cheatham 37.7% 5,918 61.6% 9,676 0.7% 103
Chester 35.3% 2,242 64.3% 4,086 0.5% 29
Claiborne 38.3% 4,034 61.2% 6,448 0.6% 58
Clay 49.9% 1,675 49.2% 1,650 1.0% 32
Cocke 32.0% 3,935 67.4% 8,297 0.6% 79
Coffee 40.9% 8,243 58.5% 11,793 0.6% 131
Crockett 43.0% 2,459 56.7% 3,242 0.4% 21
Cumberland 35.2% 8,327 64.1% 15,144 0.7% 166
Davidson 54.8% 132,737 44.5% 107,839 0.7% 1,726
Decatur 46.5% 2,268 52.6% 2,566 0.9% 45
DeKalb 48.0% 3,445 51.4% 3,685 0.6% 43
Dickson 44.5% 8,597 54.8% 10,567 0.7% 134
Dyer 38.3% 5,287 61.2% 8,447 0.5% 75
Fayette 38.7% 5,696 60.8% 8,962 0.5% 79
Fentress 35.4% 2,371 64.1% 4,293 0.5% 36
Franklin 45.7% 7,800 53.5% 9,129 0.9% 148
Gibson 44.3% 8,511 55.1% 10,596 0.6% 114
Giles 45.7% 5,273 53.4% 6,163 0.9% 101
Grainger 34.1% 2,569 65.2% 4,907 0.7% 51
Greene 31.6% 7,635 67.7% 16,382 0.7% 177
Grundy 56.6% 2,789 42.7% 2,107 0.7% 33
Hamblen 33.3% 7,433 66.1% 14,742 0.6% 143
Hamilton 41.8% 57,302 57.4% 78,547 0.8% 1,087
Hancock 30.5% 777 68.8% 1,756 0.7% 18
Hardeman 54.3% 5,685 44.9% 4,704 0.7% 77
Hardin 38.5% 3,834 61.2% 6,087 0.3% 33
Hawkins 33.0% 6,684 66.5% 13,447 0.5% 102
Haywood 57.8% 4,359 41.6% 3,140 0.6% 49
Henderson 34.2% 3,448 65.2% 6,585 0.6% 63
Henry 43.5% 5,732 55.7% 7,340 0.8% 105
Hickman 49.2% 4,263 50.3% 4,359 0.6% 51
Houston 59.1% 2,126 40.0% 1,440 0.9% 32
Humphreys 57.6% 4,485 41.8% 3,261 0.6% 47
Jackson 59.3% 2,998 40.1% 2,026 0.6% 32
Jefferson 31.8% 5,469 67.5% 11,625 0.7% 121
Johnson 28.0% 1,812 71.5% 4,634 0.5% 34
Knox 37.0% 66,013 62.1% 110,803 0.9% 1,603
Lake 55.6% 2,634 43.8% 2,078 0.6% 28
Lauderdale 51.5% 4,474 48.0% 4,164 0.5% 44
Lawrence 39.6% 6,592 59.8% 9,959 0.6% 107
Lewis 43.4% 2,192 55.8% 2,819 0.9% 43
Lincoln 36.5% 4,546 62.8% 7,829 0.7% 82
Loudon 28.7% 5,708 70.7% 14,041 0.6% 115
McMinn 32.7% 5,891 66.5% 11,980 0.7% 132
McNairy 41.3% 4,101 58.3% 5,787 0.4% 36
Macon 36.8% 2,738 62.8% 4,670 0.3% 25
Madison 43.5% 16,840 56.1% 21,679 0.4% 156
Marion 48.3% 5,548 51.0% 5,862 0.7% 82
Marshall 44.5% 4,722 54.9% 5,825 0.6% 68
Maury 41.2% 12,379 58.3% 17,505 0.5% 159
Meigs 38.6% 1,595 60.5% 2,500 0.9% 37
Monroe 34.4% 5,354 65.0% 10,123 0.6% 91
Montgomery 41.0% 20,070 58.4% 28,627 0.6% 301
Moore 39.1% 1,084 60.1% 1,668 0.8% 22
Morgan 39.7% 2,924 59.8% 4,401 0.5% 35
Obion 41.0% 5,549 58.1% 7,859 0.9% 127
Overton 53.1% 4,518 46.3% 3,941 0.6% 51
Perry 50.1% 1,579 48.3% 1,522 1.6% 49
Pickett 39.1% 1,033 60.5% 1,600 0.5% 12
Polk 40.7% 2,724 58.6% 3,924 0.8% 52
Putnam 40.0% 10,566 59.1% 15,637 0.9% 239
Rhea 33.2% 3,665 66.0% 7,301 0.8% 88
Roane 37.3% 8,706 62.0% 14,467 0.7% 165
Robertson 39.0% 9,865 60.5% 15,331 0.5% 127
Rutherford 37.5% 31,647 61.8% 52,200 0.7% 562
Scott 40.5% 3,086 59.1% 4,509 0.4% 33
Sequatchie 39.9% 1,986 59.2% 2,951 0.9% 46
Sevier 27.8% 8,621 71.5% 22,143 0.7% 206
Shelby 57.5% 216,945 41.9% 158,137 0.6% 2,200
Smith 51.7% 4,044 47.8% 3,739 0.6% 45
Stewart 51.2% 2,860 47.9% 2,675 0.9% 48
Sullivan 31.3% 19,637 67.9% 42,555 0.7% 447
Sumner 34.6% 21,458 64.8% 40,181 0.5% 329
Tipton 34.0% 7,379 65.4% 14,178 0.6% 120
Trousdale 58.0% 1,851 41.2% 1,314 0.58% 26
Unicoi 31.8% 2,374 67.4% 5,030 0.8% 59
Union 37.6% 2,524 61.8% 4,145 0.6% 41
Van Buren 51.5% 1,209 47.7% 1,120 0.8% 18
Warren 47.3% 6,808 52.1% 7,503 0.6% 89
Washington 33.2% 14,944 66.1% 29,735 0.7% 327
Wayne 32.6% 1,951 66.8% 3,999 0.6% 34
Weakley 41.4% 5,588 57.9% 7,817 0.7% 91
White 43.7% 4,147 55.5% 5,269 0.8% 79
Williamson 27.3% 21,732 72.1% 57,451 0.6% 467
Wilson 34.4% 15,277 65.1% 28,924 0.6% 251

By congressional district

Bush won 7 of 9 congressional districts.[12]

District Bush Kerry Representative
1st 68% 31% William L Jenkins
2nd 64% 35% John J. Duncan, Jr.
3rd 61% 38% Zach Wamp
4th 58% 41% Lincoln Davis
5th 48% 52% Jim Cooper
6th 60% 40% Bart Gordon
7th 66% 33% Marsha Blackburn
8th 53% 47% John S. Tanner
9th 30% 70% Harold Ford Jr.

Electors

Technically the voters of Tennessee cast their ballots for electors: representatives to the Electoral College. Tennessee is allocated 11 electors because it has 9 congressional districts and 2 senators. All candidates who appear on the ballot or qualify to receive write-in votes must submit a list of 11 electors, who pledge to vote for their candidate and his or her running mate. Whoever wins the majority of votes in the state is awarded all 11 electoral votes. Their chosen electors then vote for President and Vice President. Although electors are pledged to their candidate and running mate, they are not obligated to vote for them. An elector who votes for someone other than his or her candidate is known as a faithless elector.

The electors of each state and the District of Columbia met on December 13, 2004 to cast their votes for President and Vice President. The Electoral College itself never meets as one body. Instead the electors from each state and the District of Columbia met in their respective capitols.

The following were the members of the Electoral College from the state. All 9 were pledged to Bush/Cheney:[13]

  1. Susan Anderson
  2. Betty Cannon
  3. Winfield Dunn
  4. Geneva Williams Harrison
  5. Brock Hill
  6. Bruce Montgomery
  7. Claude Ramsey
  8. Bob Rial
  9. John Ryder
  10. Mark Tipps
  11. Sally Wall

References

  1. ↑ http://uselectionatlas.org/RESULTS/
  2. ↑ http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2004/primaries/pages/dates/02/03/
  3. ↑ http://www.dcpoliticalreport.com/members/2004/Pred2.htm#NW
  4. ↑ http://uselectionatlas.org/USPRESIDENT/GENERAL/CAMPAIGN/2004/polls.php?fips=47
  5. ↑ http://www.campaignmoney.com/political/campaigns/george_w_bush.asp?cycle=04
  6. ↑ http://www.campaignmoney.com/political/campaigns/john_f_kerry.asp?cycle=04
  7. ↑ http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2004/special/president/campaign.ads/
  8. ↑ http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2004/special/president/tracking/10.25.html
  9. ↑ Map - Tennessee 2000 Election Mapper
  10. ↑ Tennessee by County - GCT-PL. Race and Hispanic or Latino 2000 U.S. Census Bureau
  11. ↑ Tennessee: McCain Leads Both Democrats by Double Digits Rasumussen Reports, April 6, 2008
  12. ↑ http://www.swingstateproject.com/diary/4161/
  13. ↑ http://www.archives.gov/federal-register/electoral-college/2004_certificates/

See also

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