Strategic foresight
Strategic foresight is a planning-oriented subset of foresight (futurology, futures studies), the study of the future. Strategy is a high level plan to achieve one or more goals under conditions of uncertainty. Strategic foresight happens when any planner uses scanned inputs, forecasts, alternative futures exploration, analysis and feedback to produce or alter plans and actions of the organization.
Strategic planning always includes analysis, but it may or may not involve serious foresight on the way to developing a plan, or taking an action. A consideration of possible futures (alternative futures) and of probable futures (forecasts, predictions) is important to developing a preferred future (plan), even the simple mental plans made prior to taking an action.[1] It is the job of the strategic foresight professional to make sure appropriately diverse and relevant inputs, forecasts, and alternatives are considered in the analysis, decisionmaking and planning processes, that plans are appropriately communicated and that when actions are taken, appropriate feedback occurs and after action reviews take place to improve the foresight process.
Strategic foresight is a growing practice in corporate foresight in large companies.[2] Its use is also growing in government and non-profit organisations.
Strategic foresight can be practiced at multiple levels, including:
- Personal - "Personal and professional goalsetting and action planning"[3]
- Organizational - "Carrying out tomorrows' business better"[4]
- Social - "Moving toward the next civilisation - the one that lies beyond the current hegemony of techno/industrial/capitalist interests"[5]
Quotes
- "Strategic foresight is the ability to create and maintain a high-quality, coherent and functional forward view, and to use the insights arising in useful organisational ways. For example to detect adverse conditions, guide policy, shape strategy, and to explore new markets, products and services. It represents a fusion of futures methods with those of strategic management" (Slaughter (1999), p. 287).
See also
- Corporate foresight
- Forecasting
- Foresight (future studies)
- Futurology
- Optimism bias
- Reference class forecasting
- Technology forecasting
- Technology Scouting
- Strategic Foresight Group
References
- ↑ Amara, Roy (1981), The Futures Field. The Futurist, World Future Society.
- ↑ Rohrbeck, Rene (2010) Corporate Foresight: Towards a Maturity Model for the Future Orientation of a Firm, Heidelberg: Physica-Verlag, Springer, ISBN 978-3-7908-2625-8
- ↑ Morrisey, George L. (1992), Creating Your Future: Personal Strategic Planning for Professionals, Berrett Koehler, San Francisco, CA.
- ↑ Hamel, G., & Prahalad, C.K. (1994), Competing for the Future, Harvard Business School Press, Boston MA.
- ↑ Slaughter, Richard A. (2004), Futures Beyond Dystopia: Creating Social Foresight, RoutledgeFarmer, London, UK. ISBN 978-0-415-30270-8; p .217
- Johnson, G., Scholes, K., & Whittington, R. (2005). Exploring corporate strategy (7th ed.). New York: FT/Prentice Hall.
- Rohrbeck, R., S. Mahdjour, S. Knab, T. Frese (2009) Benchmarking Report - Strategic Foresight in Multinational Companies Report of the European Corporate Foresight Group: Berlin, Germany.
- Schwarz, J.-O. (2008) Assessing the future of futures studies in management, Futures, Vol. 40, Iss. 3, 237-246.
- Slaughter, Richard A. (1995), Futures for the Third Millennium. Prospect Media, St. Leonards, NSW, Australia, ISBN 1-86316-148-1.
External links
- GLOGO - Global Governance System for strategic foresight at think tank Gold Mercury International
- Towards Critical Foresight
- Blog on corporate foresight and organizational future orientation
- How to make sense of your environment through strategic analysis
- Future Screening research project, a practical framework for advancing strategic corporate foresight
- Group in Xing: Strategic Foresight - Strategische Frühaufklärung
- The Master of Design in Strategic Foresight and Innovation program at OCAD University
- The Master of Arts in Strategic Foresight at Regent University
- The Strategic Foresight and Innovation group on LinkedIn
- Master of Management (Strategic Foresight), Australian Graduate School of Entrepreneurs, Swinburne University. Twitter: @agseforesight
- The Foresight, Education & Research Network "FERN" is a global community of foresight students, alumni, faculty, employers, and advocates of graduate foresight education, employment, and research.
- Global Foresight Org lists communities, degree programs, courses, people, employers, organizations, and educational materials that help advance our global foresight culture. It can be edited by anyone who wants to help.