Richard C. Duncan

Richard Duncan is chief author of the Olduvai theory, a prediction of rapidly declining world energy production. He has an MS in Electrical Engineering (1969) and a PhD in Systems Engineering (1973) from the University of Washington.

The Olduvai theory holds that the ratio of world energy production per capita, which he denotes by the metric e, will peak as the extraction rates of fossil fuels fall increasingly behind demand, causing catastrophic social and economic collapse, starting with massive electrical blackouts worldwide. He suggests that humans would eventually revert to a stone-age style of living after the majority of the world's population dies off over the coming century. In 1996, Duncan claimed that e had peaked around 1978.^[1] In 2000, the theory was revised to hold that the ratio would begin to decline around 2007.^[2] The peak was again revised in 2013 to have occurred in 2012.^[3]

He bases his theory on the fact that a steep rise in global population and petroleum use almost parallel each other but population increases at a slightly faster rate than does energy use.

Duncan's research data, compiled in partnership with geologist Dr. Walter Youngquist,^[4] have become widely used resources for those studying past and current trends in oil production and depletion.

See also

• World energy resources and consumption

References

Peak oil Core issues Peak oil Mitigation of peak oil Predicting the timing of peak oil Hubbert peak theory Olduvai theory Results/responses Hirsch report Rimini protocol Price of petroleum 2000s energy crisis Energy crisis Export Land Model Food vs. fuel Oil reserves Pickens Plan Simple living Swing producer Renewable energy commercialization Permaculture People Albert Allen Bartlett Colin J. Campbell John Michael Greer David Goodstein Richard Heinberg M. King Hubbert James Kunstler Jean Laherrère Jeremy Leggett Dale Allen Pfeiffer Richard Rainwater Michael C. Ruppert Matthew Simmons Richard C. Duncan Kenneth S. Deffeyes Books The End of Oil The Long Emergency Out of Gas The Party's Over Power Down Beyond Oil Twilight in the Desert Documentary films A Crude Awakening Collapse The End of Suburbia Oil Factor PetroApocalypse Now? How Cuba Survived Peak Oil What a Way to Go Gashole Fuel Escape from Suburbia Crude (2007 film) Organizations The Oil Drum Energy Watch Group ODAC OPEC OAPEC IEA IRENA Post Carbon Institute REN21 Transition town Other peaks Car Coal Copper Food Gas Gold Minerals Phosphorus Soil Uranium Water Wheat Wood