PredictIt

PredictIt

PredictIt logo
Web address www.predictit.com
Slogan Let's Play Politics
Commercial? No
Type of site
 Prediction market
Registration Optional[notes 1]
Owner Victoria University of Wellington
Launched November 3, 2014 (2014-11-03)
Current status Operational

PredictIt is a New Zealand-based prediction market that offers prediction exchanges on political and financial events.[1] PredictIt is owned and operated by Victoria University of Wellington[2] with support from Aristotle, Inc.[3] The market was launched on November 3, 2014.[1][4] PredictIt's office is located in Washington, D.C.[4]

How it works

PredictIt uses a continuous double auction to sell shares for each event in its markets, meaning that for every person who predicts that an event will take place, there must be another person who predicts that it will not. The site groups related predictions into a market.[5]

Rules and limits

Victoria University of Wellington secured a no-action letter from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission,[6] eliminating the risk of prosecution for illegal online gambling.[7] In order to secure the no-action letter, each question is limited to 5,000 traders, and there is an $850 cap on individual investments per question.[2] These restrictions are modeled after the Iowa Electronic Markets, which previously secured a no-action letter from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission;[7] however, there are differences in the restrictions between the two markets.[6] Federal approval aside, the site isn't allowing participation from residents in 2 states with particularly strict laws on gaming and gambling: Nevada and Washington.[8]

See also

External links

Notes

  1. ↑ Registration is required for trading in the markets, but all visitors can view the markets.

References

  1. 1 2 "New prediction market tabs Jeb Bush as frontrunner for 2016 GOP nomination". SaintPetersBlog. 2014-11-03. Retrieved 2015-01-25.
  2. 1 2 "Terms And Conditions". PredictIt. Retrieved 2015-01-25.
  3. ↑ "What Is PredictIt?". PredictIt. Retrieved 2015-01-25.
  4. 1 2 Patrick O'Connor (2015-08-21). "Online Exchange Shows Jeb Bush as the GOP’s 2016 Favorite". The Wall Street Journal. Retrieved 2015-08-24.
  5. ↑ "How It Works". PredictIt. Retrieved 2015-01-25.
  6. 1 2 "CFTC Staff Provides No-Action Relief for Victoria University of Wellington, New Zealand, to Operate a Not-For-Profit Market for Event Contracts and to Offer Event Contracts to U.S. Persons". U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission. 2014-10-29. Retrieved 2015-01-25.
  7. 1 2 Katy Bachman (2014-10-31). "Meet the 'stock market' for politics". Politico. Retrieved 2015-01-25.
  8. ↑ "From which states is PI not allowing registrants?". PredictIt. 2015-09-14. Retrieved 2015-09-17.
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