Pennsylvania gubernatorial election, 2006
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The Pennsylvania gubernatorial election of 2006 was held on November 7, 2006, and included the races for the Governor of Pennsylvania and Lieutenant Governor of Pennsylvania.
Incumbent Governor Ed Rendell, a Democrat, ran for re-election. Pennsylvania's first female Lieutenant Governor, Catherine Baker Knoll was also running for re-election.
Background
Rendell and Knoll had the advantage of incumbency, important in the swing state of Pennsylvania. Rendell's approval rating as of May 2006 was 62%.[1]
In the 2000 Presidential election, then Vice President Al Gore won the state 51%-47% over then Texas Governor George W. Bush. In 2004, Senator John Kerry carried the state 51%-49% over incumbent President Bush.
Although the state has voted Democratic for 8 of the past 12 presidential elections, its Congressional delegation has been majority Republican for years. The counties of Philadelphia and Allegheny are the Democratic strongholds (Philadelphia: 75% Democrat, Allegheny: 60% Democrat), while the central part of the state is where the Republican Party fares best. The 2005 statewide party registration has Democrats out-numbering Republicans in the state 3,841,429 to 3,292,656, with 939,252 registered Independents.[2]
Democratic Primary
Michael Morrill, the Green Party's nominee for governor in 2002, considered challenging Rendell on a progressive liberal platform. On February 13, 2006, Morrill however stated that he would not run, citing the toll his 2002 race took on his family.[3][4] Rendell thus ran unopposed.
Results
Democratic Party primary | |||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Party | Candidate | Votes | % | ยฑ% | |
Democratic | Ed Rendell (Incumbent) | 654,985 | 100.00% | ||
Republican primary
Lynn Swann, Jeff Piccola, Jim Panyard and Bill Scranton III all announced their intention to run in the Republican primary for Governor in 2006. Scranton, who served two terms as lieutenant governor of Pennsylvania, is the son of popular former Governor William Scranton, and a member of the wealthy and politically influential Scranton family, was the early front-runner. However a series of blunders by own campaign,[5] and a lack of momentum from the Piccola and Panyard campaigns, moved Swann into presumptive nominee status.[6] The state Republican party then endorsed Swann, leading the three other candidates to drop out ahead of the March deadline to file for the primary.
Candidates
Declared
- Lynn Swann, Steelers Hall-of Famer and Chairman of the President's Council on Physical Fitness and Sports
Withdrew
- Jeff Piccola, Majority Whip of the Pennsylvania State Senate
- William Scranton III, former Lieutenant Governor and the 1986 nominee
- Jim Panyard, former president of the Pennsylvania Manufacturer's Association
Declined
Results
Republican Party primary for Pennsylvania Gubernatorial Election | |||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Party | Candidate | Votes | % | ยฑ% | |
Republican | Lynn Swann | 583,658 | 100.00% | ||
Candidates
Four candidates were campaigning for governor,[13] but only two went on to appear on the ballot in November. Rendell and Swann both were unopposed for their respective major party nominations. Constitution candidate Hagan Smith and Independent candidate Russ Diamond were unable to secure the necessary signatures to appear on the ballot. On August 11, Green Party candidate Marakay Rogers withdrew her nominating papers, following a challenge by Pennsylvania Democrats, who alleged more than 69,000 signatures on the petitions were fake names, unregistered voters or illegible.[14] The challenge followed Republican Senator Rick Santorum's drive to collect signatures to put Green candidate Carl Romanelli on the ballot.[15]
Rogers continued to campaign, hopeful that a federal appeals court would rule favorably in a lawsuit seeking to overturn the state's signature requirement for third party candidates.[16]
- Democrat: Ed Rendell[17]โincumbent Governor of Pennsylvania. Previously, he was the Chairman of the Democratic National Committee and Mayor of Philadelphia.
- Republican: Lynn Swann[18]โa retired Pittsburgh Steelers football Hall of Famer, and former chairman of the President's Council on Physical Fitness and Sports
- Green Party: Marakay Rogers (Green Party), an attorney, liberal activist, and 2004 Green Party State Attorney General nominee.[19]
- Constitution Party: Hagan Smith (Constitution Party), a building contractor, conservative activist and chair of the Butler County Constitution Party.[20]
- Independent: Russ Diamond[21] (Independent), one of three people declared "people of the year" by the Philadelphia Inquirer, for his work in exposing the clandestine pay raise the General Assembly voted themselves at 2am just before adjournment in July 2005. His running mate would have been Tom Lingenfelter, a former GOP state committeeman, conservative activist, and frequent candidate.
Analysis
Challenging Rendell was former Pittsburgh Steelers Hall of Famer, Lynn Swann (R). His running mate was businessman Jim Matthews, Montgomery County Commisoner and the brother of MSNBC's Chris Matthews.
In July 2005, a Zogby Poll showed Rendell with only a 47% to 41% lead over Lynn Swann. Some speculated that controversy over Act 72, proposed Medicaid cuts, and possibly even a legislative pay increase that was signed into law had reduced the Governor's popularity. Also, when compared to other polls, the six percent lead was an outlier. Rendell has led in other recent polls by significantly higher margins.
Following that poll, Rendell's supporters pointed out that he has raised more money than his opponents, which they felt would help him spread his message. They also pointed out that no Pennsylvania governor had lost re-election since the 1950s, [until the PA Constitutional Convention of 1968, Pennsylvania governors were limited to one consecutive termโtherefore a correct statement would be "no PA governor has lost a bid for re-election since 1970"] and that, as a sitting governor, Rendell had all of the traditional advantages of an incumbent.[23][24]
Swann hoped to perform strongly in the conservative "T" section of the state (the central and northern regions) and in his native western Pennsylvania area. On 7 February 2006 Swann served as master of ceremonies for the Pittsburgh Steelers's Super Bowl XL victory parade before 250,000 people.[25] Swann canvassed for votes among tailgating voters in Philadelphia before the Steelers game against the Eagles.[22] Polls in early February showed Swann and Rendell in a statistical tie.[26]
However, Swann's momentum did not survive an effective barrage of advertising from Rendell in early spring and had trouble keeping up with Rendell's effective fundraising.[27] Swann's focus on "reforming" Harrisburg never caught traction, possibly as a result of his vocal support for Chip Brightbill and Robert Jubelirer, two legislative leaders who were defeated in the May 2006 primary election.[28]
Polling
Source | Date | Rendell (D) | Swann (R) |
---|---|---|---|
Temple/Inquirer Poll | September 24, 2006 | 60% | 33% |
Rasmussen | September 22, 2006 | 56% | 36% |
Zogby/WSJ | September 11, 2006 | 51.6% | 42.1% |
Zogby/WSJ | August 28, 2006 | 48.4% | 43.5% |
Rasmussen | August 25, 2006 | 50% | 38% |
Strategic Vision | August 17, 2006 | 51% | 41% |
Quinnipiac | August 16, 2006 | 57% | 38% |
Rasmussen | July 26, 2006 | 50% | 40% |
Zogby/WSJ | July 24, 2006 | 47.5% | 41.1% |
Strategic Vision | July 20, 2006 | 49% | 36% |
Rasmussen | June 26, 2006 | 50% | 36% |
Quinnipiac | June 22, 2006 | 55% | 31% |
Zogby/WSJ | June 21, 2006 | 47.7% | 43.4% |
Strategic Vision | June 15, 2006 | 49% | 38% |
Rasmussen | May 25, 2006 | 52% | 34% |
Quinnipiac | May 12, 2006 | 55% | 33% |
Strategic Vision | May 10, 2006 | 49% | 41% |
Keystone Poll | May 3, 2006 | 49% | 35% |
Rasmussen | April 29, 2006 | 41% | 44% |
IssuesPA/Pew Poll | April 17โ26, 2006 | 30% | 29% |
Muhlenberg | April 17โ24, 2006 | 45% | 39% |
Strategic Vision | April 13, 2006 | 44% | 42% |
Quinnipiac | April 5, 2006 | 47% | 37% |
IssuesPA/Pew Poll | March 30, 2006 | 29% | 35% |
Rasmussen | March 28, 2006 | 44% | 41% |
Strategic Vision | March 15, 2006 | 44% | 44% |
Muhlenberg | March 4, 2006 | 46% | 43% |
Rasmussen | Feb 21, 2006 | 46% | 43% |
Quinnipiac | Feb 15, 2006 | 48% | 36% |
Keystone Poll | Feb 9, 2006 | 45% | 42% |
Strategic Vision | Jan 25, 2006 | 44% | 46% |
Rasmussen | Jan 19, 2006 | 43% | 45% |
Strategic Vision | Dec 21, 2005 | 45% | 41% |
Quinnipiac | Dec 13, 2005 | 48% | 35% |
Strategic Vision | Nov 16, 2005 | 45% | 42% |
Rasmussen | Nov 7, 2005 | 50% | 36% |
Strategic Vision | Oct 19, 2005 | 46% | 41% |
Keystone Poll | September, 2005 | 53% | 33% |
Strategic Vision | Sept 12, 2005 | 48% | 43% |
Strategic Vision | Aug 2, 2005 | 47% | 41% |
Rasmussen | July 20, 2005 | 47% | 41% |
Keystone Poll | June 2005 | 42% | 32% |
Keystone Poll | March 2005 | 59% | 29% |
Results
Pennsylvania gubernatorial election, 2006[29][30] | ||||
---|---|---|---|---|
Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
Democratic | Ed Rendell (Incumbent) | 2,470,517 | 60.33 | |
Republican | Lynn Swann | 1,622,135 | 39.61 | |
Write-in | โ | 2,670 | 0.06 | |
Total votes | 4,095,322 | 100.00 | ||
Voter turnout | 50.05% | |||
See also
- Pennsylvania United States Senate election, 2006
- United States gubernatorial elections, 2006
- 2005 Pennsylvania General Assembly pay raise controversy
References
- โ Survey USA
- โ 2005 Municipal Election
- โ Morrill Majority
- โ Morrill release
- โ http://articles.philly.com/2006-01-27/news/25411116_1_bill-scranton-campaign-manager-first-black-governor
- โ http://www.si.com/vault/2006/02/27/8370760/lynn-swann-goes-deep
- โ "GOP Shortlist for Governor". PoliticsPA. The Publius Group. 2002. Archived from the original on 2002-11-08.
- โ "GOP Shortlist for Governor". PoliticsPA. The Publius Group. 2002. Archived from the original on 2002-11-08.
- โ "GOP Shortlist for Governor". PoliticsPA. The Publius Group. 2002. Archived from the original on 2002-11-08.
- โ "GOP Shortlist for Governor". PoliticsPA. The Publius Group. 2002. Archived from the original on 2002-11-08.
- โ "GOP Shortlist for Governor". PoliticsPA. The Publius Group. 2002. Archived from the original on 2002-11-08.
- โ "GOP Shortlist for Governor". PoliticsPA. The Publius Group. 2002. Archived from the original on 2002-11-08.
- โ Politics1: Pennsylvania
- โ Green Party candidates give up
- โ Green Party candidate withdraws
- โ Minor parties sue
- โ Ed Rendell's Campaign Website
- โ Lynn Swann's Campaign Website
- โ Green Party
- โ Hagan For Governor site
- โ Russ Diamond's Campaign Website
- 1 2 Ritter, Kara (August 2006). "Ex-Steeler looks to sway support of Eagles' fans". Philadelphia Inquirer.
- โ Madonna analysis
- โ Franklin & Marshall College (Terry Madonna) Center for Politics & Public Affairs
- โ A quarter-million thanks Pittsburgh Tribune-Review
- โ Rendell, Swann in dead heat Pittsburgh Tribune-Review
- โ Barnes, Tom; Roddy, Dennis B. (November 8, 2006). "Rendell cruises to 2nd term as governor". Pittsburgh Post-Gazette.
- โ Deparle, Jason (May 18, 2006). "G.O.P. Conservatives Topple Veteran State Lawmakers in Pennsylvania". The New York Times. Retrieved May 22, 2010.
- โ The Pennsylvania Manual, p. 7-18.
- โ The Pennsylvania Manual, p. 7-84.
Sources
- Trostle, Sharon, ed. (2007). The Pennsylvania Manual 118. Harrisburg: Pennsylvania Department of General Services. ISBN 0-8182-0318-8.
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