Opinion polling for the Catalan parliamentary election, 2015

In the run up to the Catalonian parliamentary election of 2015, various organisations carry out opinion polling to gauge voting intention in Catalonia. Results of such polls are displayed in this article.

The date range for these opinion polls are from the previous parliamentary election, held on 25 November 2012, to the present day. President Artur Mas has announced that the next parliamentary election will be held on 27 September 2015.^[1]

Vote estimations

Poll results are listed in the table below in reverse chronological order, showing the most recent first, and using the date the survey's fieldwork was done, as opposed to the date of publication. If such date is unknown, the date of publication is given instead. The highest percentage figure in each polling survey is displayed in bold, and the background shaded in the leading party's colour. In the instance that there is a tie, then no figure is shaded. The lead column on the right shows the percentage-point difference between the two parties with the highest figures. When a specific poll does not show a data figure for a party, the party's cell corresponding to that poll is shown empty.

Color key:

      Multi-scenario poll       Poll conducted after legal ban on opinion polls       Exit poll

Polling Firm/Link	Last Date of Polling										Margin of Error	Sample Size	Lead
Regional Election	September 27, 2015	39.6	12.7	8.5	w.	2.5	17.9	8.2	w.	8.9			21.7
TNS Demoscopia	September 27, 2015	40.7	12.0	7.7	w.	2.9	15.4	9.1	w.	10.4	±0.6 pp	30,000	25.3
Directe.cat	September 26, 2015	42	12	9	w.		16	8	w.	10			26
GAD3	September 25, 2015	40.0	13.5	9.0	w.	3.0	14.5	8.0	w.	9.5	±1.8 pp	3,000	25.5
Técnicas Demoscópicas	September 21, 2015	41.0	12.0	11.0	w.	2.5	13.0	7.0	w.	12.0	±2.8 pp	1,200	28.0
Encuestamos	September 19, 2015	35.7	13.4	10.5	w.	2.3	13.3	8.3	w.	14.6	±3.3 pp	844	21.1
NC Report	September 19, 2015	38.0	12.1	9.9	w.	3.7	15.3	6.2	w.	12.4	±2.8 pp	1,255	22.7
Celeste-Tel	September 18, 2015	38.8	12.1	9.9	w.	3.1	14.6	6.2	w.	12.6	±3.1 pp	1,100	24.2
GAD3	September 18, 2015	40.7	11.9	10.2	w.	1.9	14.1	6.4	w.	10.3	±3.5 pp	800	26.6
NC Report	September 18, 2015	38.0	12.2	10.0	w.	3.5	15.4	5.9	w.	12.5			22.6
Sigma Dos	September 17, 2015	40.5	10.8	9.6	w.	2.8	14.8	7.3	w.	11.2	±2.7 pp	1,400	25.7
Feedback	September 17, 2015	40.7	10.1	10.6	w.	4.2	14.4	6.4	w.	11.1	±3.2 pp	1,000	26.3
My Word	September 17, 2015	40.1	11.7	8.8	w.	1.5	15.4	8.1	w.	12.6	±3.2 pp	1,000	24.7
NC Report	September 17, 2015	38.1	11.9	9.7	w.	3.7	15.8	5.6	w.	12.3			22.3
Metroscopia	September 16, 2015	41.2	11.7	7.3	w.	2.7	14.9	8.4	w.	11.4	±2.4 pp	2,000	26.3
DYM	September 16, 2015	42.4	8.4	11.9	w.	1.1	18.3	7.5	w.	10.4	±2.9 pp	1,157	24.1
Opinòmetre	September 16, 2015	39.2	13.2	8.9	w.	5.2	15.9	6.4	w.	11.1	±3 pp	1,000	23.3
NC Report	September 16, 2015	37.9	11.6	9.5	w.	3.8	16.2	5.6	w.	12.5			21.7
Sigma Dos	September 15, 2015	40.3	9.1	9.3	w.	2.2	15.4	8.2	w.	12.3	±2.3 pp	1,800	24.9
NC Report	September 15, 2015	37.6	11.4	9.4	w.	3.9	16.5	5.2	w.	12.7	±2.8 pp	1,255	21.1
Invymark	September 14, 2015	43.4	10.6	8.9	w.	1.8	14.3	6.3	w.	12.6			29.1
JxSí	September 12, 2015	41.0	9.7	10.4	w.	2.0	14.1	6.7	w.	13.5	±3 pp	1,200	26.9
Sondaxe	September 8, 2015	42.1	12.6	11.5	w.		11.6	7.4	w.	10.2	±3.7 pp	750	29.5
IBES	September 8, 2015	38.3	11.1	10.2	w.	2.8	13.4	7.2	w.	11.4	±5 pp	1,200	24.9
Invymark	September 7, 2015	41.3	11.1	9.6	w.	1.8	13.9	5.9	w.	13.2			27.4
Encuestamos	September 7, 2015	33.2	12.9	9.1	w.	4.0	12.5	8.4	w.	19.2			23.3
CIS	September 4, 2015	38.1	12.2	9.4	w.	1.5	14.8	5.9	w.	13.9	±1.8 pp	2,999	23.3
GAPS	September 3, 2015	43.5	9.5	12.3	w.		12.6	7.5	w.	11.5	±3.2 pp	1,221	30.9
Sigma Dos	September 3, 2015	39.4	11.1	9.8	w.	3.8	12.7	6.7	w.	12.4	±2.7 pp	1,400	26.7
GESOP	September 2, 2015	38.8	10.3	7.9	w.	2.4	19.9	6.0	w.	12.4	±3.5 pp	800	18.9
NC Report	August 22, 2015	36.3	11.7	9.3	w.	4.4	17.9	4.7	w.	12.3	±3.2 pp	955	18.4
NC Report	July 23, 2015	35.8	12.0	8.2	w.	4.6	19.1	4.2	w.	12.8	±2.8 pp	1,255	16.7
Feedback	July 9, 2015	46.7	7.5	6.6	w.	3.3	17.0	w.	w.	17.5	±3.2 pp	1,000	29.2
GAPS	July 3, 2015	32	9	9	w.	4	16	8	w.	20	±3.4 pp	820	12
GAPS	July 3, 2015	49	11	7	w.	3	12	w.	w.	18	±3.4 pp	820	31
Feedback	December 4, 2014	41.7	11.1	8.8	6.2	w.	14.3	5.9	11.2		±3.2 pp	1,000	27.4
GESOP	November 17, 2014	35.2	10.2	7.2	8.0	2.4	11.8	6.1	15.5		±3.5 pp	800	19.7

Polling Firm/Link	Last Date of Polling											Margin of Error	Sample Size	Lead
Feedback	July 9, 2015	22.0	9.6	15.0	7.3	w.	4.2	16.0	7.0	w.	16.5	±3.2 pp	1,000	5.5
GAPS	July 3, 2015	19	12	15	6	w.	3	17	10	w.	17	±3.4 pp	820	2
GESOP	June 21, 2015	22.4	7.0	12.9	6.0	w.	4.6	14.9	8.2	w.	22.4	±3.5 pp	800	Tie
GESOP	June 21, 2015	23.1	7.8	13.8	5.9	4.2	4.7	15.1	9.4	13.8		±3.5 pp	800	8.0
NC Report	July 26, 2014	13.3	11.9	22.8	10.8	7.5	5.9	12.7	4.9	6.9		±3.2 pp	970	9.5
GESOP	June 18, 2014	17.5	7.7	23.4	6.9	8.7	5.1	11.7	4.5	8.0		±3.5 pp	800	5.9

Polling Firm/Link	Last Date of Polling									Margin of Error	Sample Size	Lead
GESOP	June 21, 2015	22.7	8.0	16.0	6.9	4.5	16.2	9.8	13.8	±3.5 pp	800	6.5
Municipal Elections	May 24, 2015	21.5	17.1	16.4	7.5	11.8	7.4	7.1				4.4
Feedback	April 29, 2015	22.6	9.9	16.6	6.6	6.6	19.1	7.9	6.3	±3.2 pp	1,000	3.5
CEO	March 2, 2015	19.5	8.2	18.9	10.2	5.8	12.4	7.3	12.2	±2.7 pp	2,000	0.6
GESOP	February 26, 2015	20.1	7.9	17.3	9.8	6.9	17.8	7.1	9.8	±3.5 pp	800	2.3
NC Report	January 17, 2015	21.5	10.7	21.7	9.9	5.8	12.9	3.5	11.4	±3.2 pp	955	0.2
CEO	December 13, 2014	21.9	10.3	21.0	8.8	6.6	11.3	5.5	8.2	±3.0 pp	1,100	0.9
Feedback	December 4, 2014	26.7	9.3	18.8	7.2	4.9	13.7	6.5	11.3	±3.2 pp	1,000	7.9
Sigma Dos	November 20, 2014	23.8	10.2	22.1	7.4	4.5	9.7	3.8	14.3	±3.5 pp	800	1.7
GESOP	November 17, 2014	20.8	8.2	19.9	7.8	8.2	13.5	5.2	13.8	±3.5 pp	800	0.9
NC Report	November 15, 2014	22.8	10.8	21.0	10.0	6.0	12.0	3.7	10.9			1.8
CEO	October 23, 2014	19.4	11.2	23.2	8.6	7.2	7.0	6.5	8.5	±2.7 pp	2,000	3.8
NC Report	October 18, 2014	17.5	11.8	23.0	10.9	6.9	13.0	4.2	9.2	±3.2 pp	970	5.5
NC Report	September 6, 2014	18.1	11.8	23.0	10.7	7.0	13.0	4.6	8.1	±3.2 pp	970	4.9
Sigma Dos	August 28, 2014	19.1	13.8	23.2	9.5	5.6	7.5	3.6	12.4			4.1
NC Report	July 26, 2014	19.2	11.9	22.8	10.8	7.5	12.7	4.9	6.9	±3.2 pp	970	3.6
GESOP	June 18, 2014	18.5	8.9	23.9	9.5	8.6	12.2	4.7	8.5	±3.5 pp	800	5.4
EP Election	May 25, 2014	21.8	14.3	23.7	9.8	10.3	6.3		4.7			1.9
Feedback	May 8, 2014	23.9	12.7	22.5	12.4	9.8	11.5	5.2		±4.2 pp	577	1.4
CEO	April 15, 2014	22.0	11.4	21.8	9.2	11.7	11.6	6.6		±2.7 pp	2,000	0.2
NC Report	April 12, 2014	21.9	12.8	22.3	11.2	9.5	12.6	5.3		±3.2 pp	970	0.4
Ara	March 15, 2014	22.3	11.0	23.0	9.2	10.7	13.1	4.9				0.7
GESOP	February 28, 2014	22.5	11.0	21.7	9.0	11.5	13.9	4.5		±3.5 pp	800	0.8
Sondeos RA	February 10, 2014	22.9	11.2	23.2	10.8	9.6	13.1	5.5		±3 pp	1,000	0.3
NC Report	January 25, 2014	22.8	12.6	20.8	11.8	9.9	10.9	5.3		±3.2 pp	970	2.0
Feedback	December 19, 2013	22.4	12.4	23.5	9.5	10.1	14.2	4.4		±3.2 pp	1,000	1.1
NC Report	December 14, 2013	22.9	12.1	21.9	11.7	9.9	11.1	6.0		±3.4 pp	880	1.0
Sigma Dos	December 13, 2013	24.3	12.5	20.6	11.5	8.7	10.2	6.0		±3.2 pp	1,000	3.7
CEO	November 14, 2013	22.2	11.1	24.2	9.4	9.8	12.2	5.2		±2.7 pp	2,000	2.0
Metroscopia	October 30, 2013	19.4	8.4	23.2	7.5	10.5	15.3	4.9		±3.2 pp	1,000	3.8
GESOP	October 18, 2013	20.2	11.1	22.8	10.1	11.5	13.5	4.4		±3.5 pp	800	2.6
Feedback	October 4, 2013	23.9	11.9	24.2	10.6	10.3	9.6	5.2		±3.2 pp	1,000	0.3
My Word	September 7, 2013	20.7	10.5	22.1	7.0	12.1	12.6	3.3		±3.5 pp	800	1.4
CEO	June 13, 2013	22.8	12.1	24.4	10.4	9.6	9.5	4.9		±2.7 pp	2,000	1.6
GESOP	May 31, 2013	21.4	12.2	24.3	10.2	12.2	10.0	3.5		±3.5 pp	800	2.9
NC Report	March 25, 2013	26.2	12.0	17.9	12.9	9.2	10.9	5.8				8.3
CEO	February 14, 2013	24.8	15.3	18.2	11.9	10.1	9.1	4.5		±2.7 pp	2,000	6.6
GESOP	January 16, 2013	25.2	13.4	16.9	11.5	10.0	9.8	5.2		±3.5 pp	800	8.3
NC Report	December 27, 2012	29.6	14.7	14.9	13.5	9.8	7.9	3.6				14.7
Regional Election	November 25, 2012	30.7	14.4	13.7	13.0	9.9	7.6	3.5				16.3

Parliamentary seat projections

Opinion polls showing seat projections are displayed in the table below. The highest seat figures in each polling survey have their background shaded in the leading party's colour. In the instance that there is a tie, then no figure is shaded. 68 seats were required for an absolute majority in the Parliament of Catalonia.

Color key:

      Multi-scenario poll       Poll conducted after legal ban on opinion polls       Exit poll

68 seats needed for a majority

Polling Firm/Link	Last Date of Polling
Regional Election	September 27, 2015	62	16	11	w.	0	25	10	w.	11
TNS Demoscopia	September 27, 2015	63/66	14/16	9/11	w.	0/3	19/21	11/13	w.	12/14
Directe.cat	September 26, 2015	67/71	14/16	10/11	w.	0	17/19	10/12	w.	13/15
Metroscopia	September 25, 2015	64/65	15/17	8/9	w.	0	23/25	10/11	w.	11/12
Opinòmetre	September 25, 2015	62/64	16/18	8/10	w.	5/6	20/21	6/8	w.	12/14
GAD3	September 25, 2015	62/65	16/18	10/12	w.	2/3	18/20	9/11	w.	11/13
Técnicas Demoscópicas	September 21, 2015	62/64	14/15	13	w.	0/3	18/20	9	w.	15
Encuestamos	September 19, 2015	54/57	17/19	12/14	w.	0/2	17/19	10/12	w.	18/21
NC Report	September 19, 2015	59	16	13	w.	3	20	8	w.	16
Celeste-Tel	September 18, 2015	59/62	15/18	11/13	w.	2/3	20/21	7/9	w.	16/17
GAD3	September 18, 2015	65/67	14/16	12/13	w.	0/2	18/20	7/9	w.	12/13
NC Report	September 18, 2015	59/60	15/16	13/14	w.	3/5	20/22	7/8	w.	15/16
Sigma Dos	September 17, 2015	65/66	13/14	12/13	w.	0/2	19/20	9	w.	14
Feedback	September 17, 2015	63/65	12/14	12/13	w.	3	20/21	8	w.	13/15
My Word	September 17, 2015	61/65	14/16	10	w.	0	21/22	9/12	w.	15/17
NC Report	September 17, 2015	59/60	15/16	12/13	w.	4/5	21/22	6/7	w.	15/16
Metroscopia	September 16, 2015	66/67	14	10	w.	0/2	19	10/11	w.	14
DYM	September 16, 2015	63/65	10/11	16	w.	0	21/23	10/11	w.	12
Opinòmetre	September 16, 2015	60/62	15/17	14/16	w.	5/6	18/20	6/8	w.	17/19
NC Report	September 16, 2015	59/60	15/16	12/13	w.	4/5	22/23	5/6	w.	16
Sigma Dos	September 15, 2015	65/66	12	11/13	w.	0	20	10	w.	15/17
NC Report	September 15, 2015	59	15	12	w.	5	23	5	w.	16
Invymark	September 14, 2015	64	14	12	w.	0	20	8	w.	17
JxSí	September 12, 2015	64/66	13/15	13/15	w.	0	17/18	8	w.	17/19
Sondaxe	September 8, 2015	65	16	16	w.	0	16	8	w.	14
IBES	September 8, 2015	64/65	15/16	12/13	w.	0/2	18/19	9/10	w.	13/14
Invymark	September 7, 2015	63	15	13	w.	0	19	8	w.	17
CIS	September 4, 2015	60/61	16/17	12/13	w.	0	19/20	8	w.	18/19
GAPS	September 3, 2015	65/70	12/13	14/17	w.	0	15/18	8/10	w.	12/16
Sigma Dos	September 3, 2015	62/65	14/15	13	w.	3	16/17	8/9	w.	15/17
GESOP	September 2, 2015	60/62	13/14	10/11	w.	0/2	25/27	7/8	w.	15/17
NC Report	August 22, 2015	57	16	12	w.	5	25	4	w.	16
NC Report	July 23, 2015	56	18	10	w.	5	27	3	w.	16
Feedback	July 9, 2015	68/72	9/10	7/9	w.	2/3	21/23	w.	w.	22/23
GAPS	July 3, 2015	52	12	12	w.	3	20	10	w.	26
GAPS	July 3, 2015	75	13	8	w.	2	14	w.	w.	23
Feedback	December 4, 2014	64	13	11	7	w.	19	6	15
GESOP	November 17, 2014	58/60	13/14	9/10	9/11	0	15/16	8	20/21

Polling Firm/Link	Last Date of Polling
Feedback	July 9, 2015	32/34	13	22	9/10	w.	3/6	22	9/10	w.	20/22
GAPS	July 3, 2015	30	15	25	8	w.	2	21	12	w.	22
GESOP	June 21, 2015	33/35	8/9	19/20	6/7	w.	6/7	19/20	11/12	w.	30/31
GESOP	June 21, 2015	34/36	10/11	20/21	6/7	4/5	6/7	19/20	12/13	18/19
GESOP	June 18, 2014	27/29	10	39/40	8/9	11/12	6/7	16	6	9/10

Polling Firm/Link	Last Date of Polling
GESOP	June 21, 2015	34/35	10/11	24/25	8/9	4/5	20/21	12/13	19/20
Feedback	April 29, 2015	35/36	12/13	26/27	9	8	26	10/11	6/8
CEO	March 2, 2015	31/32	11/12	30/31	13/14	6/8	16/17	10/11	16/17
GESOP	February 26, 2015	31/32	10/11	27/28	12/13	8/9	23/24	9/10	11/12
NC Report	January 17, 2015	34	15	33	13	7	16	3	14
Tàstic	December 14, 2014	31/33	11/12	36/38	5	4/5	13/14	7/8	24/25
CEO	December 13, 2014	34/36	13/14	34/35	11/12	7/8	14/16	7/8	9/11
Feedback	December 4, 2014	40	12	27	9	6	19	8	14
Sigma Dos	November 20, 2014	36	14	34	9	4	14	4	20
GESOP	November 17, 2014	32/34	10/11	31/33	10/11	10/11	16/17	6	16/17
NC Report	November 15, 2014	34	16	32	13	7	15	4	14
CEO	October 23, 2014	32/33	14/16	38/39	11/13	8/9	8/9	8/9	10/11
NC Report	October 18, 2014	26/28	15/17	33/34	14/17	7/8	16/18	5	12
NC Report	September 6, 2014	27/30	16/17	33/37	13/16	9	16/17	5/6	9/11
Sigma Dos	August 28, 2014	30	20	35	13	8	9	3	17
NC Report	July 26, 2014	29/31	16/18	33/35	13/16	9	16	6	8
GESOP	June 18, 2014	29/30	11/12	39	13	10/11	16/17	6	9/10
EP Election	May 25, 2014	(36)	(20)	(40)	(13)	(14)	(7)		(5)
Feedback	May 8, 2014	37	16	34	16	11	15	6
CEO	April 15, 2014	35/36	14/15	34/35	12/13	14/15	14/15	7/9
NC Report	April 12, 2014	33/35	18	33/34	15/16	12	16/17	6
GESOP	February 28, 2014	35/36	14/15	34/35	12/13	14/15	17/18	6
Sondeos RA	February 10, 2014	34/36	13/15	36/38	13/15	12/14	16/18	6/7
NC Report	January 25, 2014	33/34	17/18	31	16	14	16	7
Feedback	December 19, 2013	34/36	16	35/37	13	12/13	18	5/6
NC Report	December 14, 2013	35/36	16/17	32/33	14/16	13	15	7
Sigma Dos	December 13, 2013	38/39	16	32/34	15/16	11	12/14	7/9
CEO	November 14, 2013	34/36	14/16	37/39	13/14	12/14	15/17	6/7
Metroscopia	October 30, 2013	32	13	37	12	14	21	6
GESOP	October 18, 2013	31/32	14/16	36/38	13/14	14/15	16/18	5/6
Feedback	October 4, 2013	36/37	15/16	36/37	14/16	12/13	12/13	6
CEO	June 13, 2013	35/37	16	38/39	13/14	13/14	12	6
GESOP	May 31, 2013	34/35	16/17	39/40	13/14	15/16	12/13	3
NC Report	March 25, 2013	39/42	15/16	27/28	18/19	12	14/15	7
CEO	February 14, 2013	40/42	19/20	27/28	16/17	12/13	11/12	4/6
GESOP	January 16, 2013	40/42	18/19	27/28	16/17	12/13	12/13	6/7
NC Report	December 27, 2012	48	20	23	19	13	9	3
Regional Election	November 25, 2012	50	20	21	19	13	9	3

References

1. ↑ "Mas announces an agreement with ERC and will call a snap election for 27 September 2015" (in Spanish). El País. 2015-01-14.