Ontario general election, 2014

Ontario general election, 2014

June 12, 2014 (2014-06-12)

All 107 seats in the Legislative Assembly of Ontario 54 seats needed for a majority Opinion polls Turnout 52.1%[1]   First party Second party Third party   Leader Kathleen Wynne Tim Hudak Andrea Horwath Party Liberal Progressive Conservative New Democratic Leader since January 26, 2013 June 27, 2009 March 7, 2009 Leader's seat Don Valley West Niagara West—Glanbrook Hamilton Centre Last election 53 seats, 37.65% 37 seats, 35.45% 17 seats, 22.74% Seats before 48 37 21 Seats won 58 28 21 Seat change 10 9 ±0 Popular vote 1,862,907 1,506,267 1,144,576 Percentage 38.65% 31.25% 23.75% Swing 1.00pp 4.20pp 1.01pp

Premier before election Kathleen Wynne Liberal Premier-designate Kathleen Wynne Liberal

The 41st Ontario general election was held on June 12, 2014. The Liberal Party won a majority of seats in the legislature, allowing its leader, Kathleen Wynne, to continue as premier, moving from a minority to majority government. This was the Liberals' fourth consecutive win since 2003 and an improvement from their performance in the 2011 election.^[2] The Progressive Conservatives under Tim Hudak were returned to the official opposition; following the election loss, Hudak announced his resignation as Progressive Conservative leader.^[3] The New Democratic Party under Andrea Horwath remained in third place, albeit with an improved share of the popular vote.

The election was called on May 2, 2014, by Lieutenant Governor David Onley,^[4] upon the recommendation of Wynne following the announcement that the NDP, whose support was critical to the survival of the Liberal's minority government in the Legislative Assembly, would vote against the Liberals' proposed budget.^[5]

With the election, Wynne became the first woman and first rookie leader to lead her party to a majority victory in an Ontario general election.^[6]

Standings

Summary analysis

Pairing off the top three parties, swings were calculated to be:

• PC to Liberal: 2.6%
• PC to NDP: 2.6%
• Liberal to NDP: insignificant

Number of seats held by party in the Legislative Assembly of Ontario (2014).

Regional analysis

Detailed analysis

Polling station in Toronto for the Ontario general election, 2014

Summary of the standings of the Legislative Assembly of Ontario

Timeline

2011

• October 6, 2011: Election held for members of the Ontario Legislature in the 40th Legislative Assembly of Ontario.
• November 22, 2011: The 40th Legislative Assembly of Ontario opens with a Speech from the throne.^[9]

2012

• March 28, 2012: Dwight Duncan presents the Government's first minority budget, requiring support from at least one of the other two parties to ensure passage and avoid an early election.
• April 10, 2012: NDP Leader Andrea Horwath makes several demands to be met in exchange for her party to support the Liberal budget, which support is necessary for the approval of the budget following Tim Hudak's outright rejection of it.^[10]
• April 27, 2012: Progressive Conservative MPP for Kitchener—Waterloo and former Deputy Premier, Minister of Health and Long-Term Care and Minister of Education, Elizabeth Witmer, resigns after being appointed chair of the Workplace Safety & Insurance Board, triggering a by-election.
• June 15, 2012: Premier Dalton McGuinty states he will drop the writ if his budget is not passed.^[11]
• June 20, 2012: The budget bill is passed, after the NDP agrees to abstain, avoiding a summer election.^[12]
• August 1, 2012: Liberal MPP for Vaughan and former Chair of the Management Board of Cabinet and Minister of Finance, Greg Sorbara, resigns to spend more time with his family and on his business interests, triggering a by-election in what is considered a safe seat for the Liberals. Sorbara will remain chair of the Liberal campaign for the next election.
• September 6, 2012: The Kitchener—Waterloo and Vaughan by-elections are held. Liberal candidate Steven Del Duca is elected in Vaughan, while NDP candidate Catherine Fife is elected in Kitchener—Waterloo.
• October 15, 2012: Dalton McGuinty announces his resignation as Premier of Ontario and as Leader of the Ontario Liberal Party.^[13]

2013

• January 26, 2013: Kathleen Wynne is elected Leader of the Ontario Liberal Party.^[14]
• February 11, 2013: Wynne is sworn in as Premier, and a new cabinet is sworn in.^[15]
• February 14, 2013: Chris Bentley and Dwight Duncan, Liberal MPPs for London West and Windsor—Tecumseh, resign.^[16]
• February 20, 2013: Wynne resumes the 40th Legislative Assembly of Ontario with a Speech of the Throne.
• June 12, 2013: Dalton McGuinty, Liberal MPP for Ottawa South, resigns.^[17]
• June 27, 2013: Margarett Best, Liberal MPP for Scarborough—Guildwood, resigns.^[18]
• July 2, 2013: Liberal Laurel Broten resigns her Etobicoke—Lakeshore seat and Intergovernmental Affairs Minister post and for an opportunity in Halifax.^[19]
• August 1, 2013: By-elections are held in five ridings vacated by Liberals: the NDP captures London West and Windsor—Tecumseh, the Progressive Conservatives capture Etobicoke—Lakeshore, and the Liberals hold onto Ottawa South and Scarborough—Guildwood.^[20]
• September 24, 2013: Kim Craitor, Liberal MPP for Niagara Falls, resigns.^[21]
• December 31, 2013: Peter Shurman, Progressive Conservative MPP for Thornhill, resigns.^[22]

2014

• February 13, 2014: By-elections are held in Niagara Falls and Thornhill, with the NDP capturing the former from the Liberals and the Progressive Conservatives holding onto the latter.^[23]
• March 25, 2014: Brampton—Springdale Liberal MPP Linda Jeffrey resigns as MPP and Minister of Municipal Affairs and Housing to run for Mayor of Brampton.^[24]
• May 1, 2014: Progressive Conservative leader Tim Hudak announces that his caucus will be voting against the Liberal's budget, proposed earlier that day.
• May 2, 2014: NDP leader Andrea Horwath announces that the NDP will be voting against the Liberals' proposed budget, triggering a spring election.^[5] Following this, Premier Wynne formally asks Lieutenant Governor David Onley to dissolve the legislature and call an election for June 12, 2014.^[25]
• June 12, 2014: The Liberal Party wins a majority, claiming 58 ridings in the Ontario election.^[26] Tim Hudak announced that he is stepping down from his leadership of the PC party.^[27]
• June 14, 2014: A judicial recount has been requested in the riding of Thornhill.^[28]
• June 24, 2014: A judge confirms results in Thornhill are in favour of the Progressive Conservatives.^[29]

Opinion polls

Voting intention polls released throughout the election campaign were distinctly inconsistent and contradictory,^{[30][31][32][33]} as shown in the graph and table below. During much of the campaign, different pollsters persistently disagreed, frequently by important margins, on whether the Liberals or Progressive Conservatives held the lead, though by the final days most polls showed the Liberals marginally to comfortably ahead. Still, polls completed on the last day of the campaign by Ipsos Reid and EKOS showed vastly divergent support for the NDP, at 30% and 19%, respectively. Also of note, although four different pollsters released results among "likely voters" alongside their results among all eligible voters in an effort to better predict the outcome of the election based on expected voter turnout, in all cases the former proved to be overall poorer predictors than the latter.^[34]

General opinion polls

Evolution of voting intentions during the 2014 Ontario general election campaign. Dots represent results of individual polls. Lines connect successive polls by the same polling firm. Dashes on June 12 represent election results.

Polling firm	Last date of polling	Link	Liberal	PC	NDP	Green	Other	Type of poll	Sample size	Margin of Error
Election 2014	000000002014-06-12-0000June 12, 2014	HTML	38.65	31.25	23.75	4.84	1.51	Ballot	4,851,333
Forum Research	000000002014-06-11-0000June 11, 2014	PDF	41	35	20	3	1	IVR	1,054	±3%	19  20
EKOS[2]	000000002014-06-11-0000June 11, 2014	PDF	37.3	31.3	19.2	8.2	3.9	IVR	1,311	±2.7%	19  20
Abacus Data[2]	000000002014-06-11-0000June 11, 2014	PDF	35	32	26	6	1	Online	1,882	±2.3%	19  20
Ipsos Reid[2]	000000002014-06-11-0000June 11, 2014	HTML	33	31	30		5	Online	1,991	±2.4%
EKOS[2]	000000002014-06-10-0000June 10, 2014	PDF	36.6	30.2	21.5	6.6	5.0	IVR	1,332	±2.7%	19  20
Angus Reid[2]	000000002014-06-10-0000June 10, 2014	PDF	36	32	26	5	1	Online	1,866	±2.3%	19  20
Forum Research	000000002014-06-09-0000June 9, 2014	PDF	42	35	19	3	1	IVR	739	±4%	19  20
Léger Marketing	000000002014-06-09-0000June 9, 2014	PDF	37	37	20	5	1	Online	1,050	±3.2%	19  20
EKOS[2]	000000002014-06-09-0000June 9, 2014	PDF	34.7	34.5	19.8	6.7	4.3	IVR	1,417	±2.6%	19  20
EKOS[2]	000000002014-06-08-0000June 8, 2014	PDF	35.9	35.9	17.6	7.7	2.8	IVR	1,331	±2.7%	19  20
Oraclepoll Research	000000002014-06-08-0000June 8, 2014	PDF	35	36	24	5		Telephone	1,000	±3.1%	19  20
Abacus Data[2]	000000002014-06-07-0000June 7, 2014	PDF	34	31	28	5	1	Online	1,000	±3.1%	19  20
EKOS[2]	000000002014-06-06-0000June 6, 2014	PDF	34.2	35.5	20.5	7.4	2.4	IVR	1,767	±2.3%	19  20
Ipsos Reid[2]	000000002014-06-06-0000June 6, 2014	HTML	35	35	26		4	Online	2,140	±2.4%
Forum Research	000000002014-06-05-0000June 5, 2014	PDF	39	37	17	6	1	IVR	1,022	±3%	19  20
EKOS[2]	000000002014-06-05-0000June 5, 2014	PDF	33.9	34.9	20.5	8.4	2.3	IVR	1,690	±2.4%	19  20
EKOS[2]	000000002014-06-04-0000June 4, 2014	PDF	35.7	30.9	19.8	9.6	4.0	IVR	1,303	±2.7%	19  20
EKOS	000000002014-06-03-0000June 3, 2014	PDF	36.4	31.0	19.3	8.4	4.9	IVR	997	±3.1%	19  20
EKOS	000000002014-06-02-0000June 2, 2014	PDF	38.8	30.5	17.8	8.4	4.5	IVR	934	±3.2%	19  20
EKOS	000000002014-06-01-0000June 1, 2014	PDF	38.5	33.7	16.9	7.8	3.0	IVR	927	±3.2%	19  20
Abacus Data[2]	000000002014-05-31-0000May 31, 2014	PDF	37	30	24	7	2	Online	1,000	±3.1%	19  20
Ipsos Reid[2]	000000002014-05-29-0000May 29, 2014	HTML	34	36	23		7	Online	868	±3.8%
Forum Research	000000002014-05-27-0000May 27, 2014	PDF	36	36	20	7	1	IVR	882	±3%	19  20
Oraclepoll Research	000000002014-05-27-0000May 27, 2014	PDF	32	36	25	7		Telephone	1,000	±3.1%	19  20
Nanos Research	000000002014-05-26-0000May 26, 2014	PDF	37.7	31.2	23.7	5.3		Telephone	500	±4.4%	19  20
Abacus Data[2]	000000002014-05-24-0000May 24, 2014	PDF	34	32	25	6	2	Online	1,000	±3.1%	19  20
EKOS	000000002014-05-23-0000May 23, 2014	PDF	35.8	30.0	20.4	11.9	1.9	IVR	1,215	±2.8%	19  20
Ipsos Reid[2]	000000002014-05-21-0000May 21, 2014	HTML	31	35	28		6	Online	800	±3.9%
Forum Research	000000002014-05-20-0000May 20, 2014	PDF	41	34	20	4	1	IVR	1,136	±3%	19  20
Abacus Data[2]	000000002014-05-16-0000May 16, 2014	PDF	33	33	26	6	2	Online	2,000	±2.2%	19  20
EKOS	000000002014-05-15-0000May 15, 2014	PDF	37.1	30.3	20.9	7.3	4.5	IVR	1,111	±2.9%	19  20
Ipsos Reid[2]	000000002014-05-14-0000May 14, 2014	HTML	30	39	24		7	Online	801	±3.9%
Forum Research	000000002014-05-12-0000May 12, 2014	PDF	38	35	21	5	1	IVR	996	±3%	19  20
Ipsos Reid[2]	000000002014-05-09-0000May 9, 2014	HTML	31	37	28		4	Online	821	±3.9%
Innovative Research	000000002014-05-06-0000May 6, 2014	PDF	38.8	32.8	19.9	6.5	2.0	Online	1,000	N/A[1]
Innovative Research	000000002014-05-06-0000May 6, 2014	PDF	38.7	32.8	23.7	4.3	0.5	Telephone	500	±4.4%	19  20
Oraclepoll Research	000000002014-05-05-0000May 5, 2014	PDF	31	42	25	3		Telephone	1,000	±3.2%	19  20
Forum Research	000000002014-05-03-0000May 3, 2014	PDF	33	38	22	6	1	IVR	1,845	±2%	19  20
EKOS	000000002014-05-01-0000May 1, 2014	PDF	34.7	31.6	22.2	9.4	2.0	IVR	1,576	±2.5%	19  20
Election 2011	000000002011-10-06-0000October 6, 2011	PDF	37.65	35.45	22.74	2.92	1.24	Ballot	4,316,382

¹ Innovative Research states, for Province Wide Online Survey, "Margin of error not applicable, online samples not random."
² Data shown above for campaign-period polls are top-line results, typically among all eligible voters. However, certain pollsters additionally report results among "likely voters" in an effort to better predict the actual outcome of the election. When available, these alternative results are shown in the following table:

Likely voters

Pre-campaign period

Evolution of voting intentions since the 40th Ontario general election on October 6, 2011. Points represent results of individual polls. Trend lines represent three-poll moving averages.

Incumbent MPPs not running for re-election

Liberals

• Rick Bartolucci, Sudbury^[35]
• Donna Cansfield, Etobicoke Centre^[36]
• John Gerretsen, Kingston and the Islands^[37]
• Phil McNeely, Ottawa—Orléans^[38]
• John Milloy, Kitchener Centre^[39]

Progressive Conservative

• Frank Klees, Newmarket—Aurora^[40][41]
• John O'Toole, Durham^[42]

Candidates by region

East

Ottawa

Eastern Ontario

Central Ontario

905 Belt

Durham & York

Brampton, Mississauga & Oakville

Toronto

Scarborough

North York and North Toronto

Toronto & East York

Etobicoke & York

Hamilton, Burlington & Niagara

Midwestern Ontario

Southwestern Ontario

Northern Ontario

• †Indicates MPP not running for re-election.

Issues

Economy

Unemployment in Ontario was a major political issue. In particular, the manufacturing sector had shrunk by about 30% or more than 300,000 jobs since 2002.^[43]

The Progressive Conservative Party of Ontario proposed a plan called "Million Jobs Plan", outlining their strategy for job creation and economic growth. By reducing tax, government services, energy costs and regulations the PCs projected to create a cumulative 507,488 jobs over eight years.^[44] The plan also called for the reduction of 100,000 civil service jobs. Economists and critics noted fundamental mathematical errors with the PCs' projections. They held, even if the PCs' own data were correctly tabulated, only 50,000 extra jobs would be created (in addition to the 500,000 that would be created anyway without any policy change).^[45]

The Ontario Liberal Party proposed the 10 year "Jobs and Investment Plan", which proposed infrastructure investments as their main strategy to create jobs.^[46]

The Ontario New Democratic Party platform called for targeted tax credits and incentives to encourage job creation.^[47]

The Green Party of Ontario policy proposal stated that it would "focus on your job by lowering payroll taxes for small businesses" as well as investing in transit infrastructure and subsidising energy-saving home improvements.^[48]

The Ontario Libertarian Party called for mass privatization, lower taxes and general deregulation, eliminating many business requirements such as permitting, insurance and certification that they considered to be interfering with job creation.^[49] Their platform called for government spending to be limited to "only core functions of government; defending life, liberty, and property"^[50] and as such would have eliminated industry subsidies or incentives of any kind, particularly in the energy sector.^[51]

The Communist Party of Ontario called for raising the minimum wage to $19/hr as well as introducing a guaranteed annual income, nationalization of the domestic steel industry, and investments in public housing, infrastructure and social programs, while shifting taxes from lower to higher income-earners and businesses.^[52]

Transit

Due to rapid urban and suburban expansion in southern Ontario, traffic congestion had been increasing greatly. A 2013 study by the CD Howe Institute determined that it was costing $7.5-11 billion annually for the economy of Toronto alone.^[53][54]

The Liberals promised $29 billion in infrastructure spending, $15 billion of which would go towards building new transit (mostly LRT) lines in the GTHA, based on the outline of Metrolinx's The Big Move plan, as well as an LRT in Ottawa.^[55][56] A high-speed rail line crossing the province from the southeast into Quebec was also planned. The PCs promised to finish building the Eglinton Crosstown, but cancel all the other planned lines, and instead focus on quickly expanding GO service.^[57] The NDP plan was similar to the Liberal plan, but included an extra $1 billion to get certain projects built faster.^[55]

Endorsements

Media endorsements

The following media outlets made endorsements during the campaign:

Liberal

• Toronto Star ^[58]
• Now ^[59]
• Torontoist ^[60]

Progressive Conservative

• Burlington Post ,^[61] The Flamborough Review ,^[62] Oakville Beaver ^[63] (Same editorial printed in several papers)
• The Globe and Mail ^[64] (endorsing a minority government)
• National Post ^[65]
• Ottawa Citizen ^[66]
• Toronto Sun ,^[67] Ottawa Sun ^[68] (Identical editorial printed in multiple cities)
• Windsor Star ^[69]

New Democratic Party

• Sudbury Star ^[70] (endorsing a minority government)

Explicitly not endorsing any party

• Hamilton Spectator ^[71]
• The Kitchener-Waterloo Record ^[72]

Public figure endorsements

The media has reported the following endorsements by public figures during the campaign:

• Deputy Mayor of Toronto, and acting mayor, Norm Kelly endorsed Liberal leader Kathleen Wynne.^[73]
• Mayor of Mississauga, Hazel McCallion endorsed Liberal leader Kathleen Wynne.^[74]
• Mayor of Kitchener, Carl Zehr endorsed Liberal leader Kathleen Wynne.^[75]

References

External links

Wikimedia Commons has media related to 2014 Ontario election.

• Elections Ontario

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