Northern Ireland Assembly election, 2016

Next Northern Ireland Assembly election
5 May 2016
All 108 seats to the Northern Ireland Assembly
 
Leader Arlene Foster Gerry Adams Colum Eastwood
Party DUP Sinn Féin SDLP
Leader since 17 December 2015 13 November 1983 14 November 2015
Leader's seat Fermanagh and South Tyrone N/A Foyle
Last election 38 seats, 29.3% 29 seats, 26.3% 14 seats, 13.9%
Current seats 38 29 14
 
Leader Mike Nesbitt David Ford Jim Allister
Party UUP Alliance TUV
Leader since 31 March 2012 6 October 2001 7 December 2007
Leader's seat Strangford South Antrim North Antrim
Last election 16 seats, 12.9% 8 seats, 7.7% 1 seat, 2.5%
Current seats 13 8 1
 
Leader Steven Agnew
Party Green (NI)
Leader since 10 January 2011
Leader's seat North Down
Last election 1 seat, 0.9%
Current seats 1
Incumbent First Minister

Arlene Foster
DUP

The next election to the Northern Ireland Assembly is scheduled to occur on 5 May 2016, unless it is dissolved earlier.

Change of date

Under the Northern Ireland Act 1998, elections to the NI assembly were originally for a four-year term; thus there would have been an election due in May 2015, four years after the 2011 election. Following the introduction of the UK Fixed Term Parliaments Act, this date would have clashed with the 2015 UK General Election.[1] The Scottish Parliament and Welsh Assembly elections were postponed for a year to 2016 to avoid this clash.[2]

In May 2013, Theresa Villiers, Secretary of State for Northern Ireland, announced the next NI assembly election would be postponed to May 2016, and would be held at fixed intervals of 5 years thereafter.[3] Section 7 of the Northern Ireland (Miscellaneous Provisions) Act 2014 specifies that elections will be held on the first Thursday in May on the fifth (rather than fourth, as previously) calendar year following that in which its predecessor was elected.[4]

End of dual mandate

The Northern Ireland (Miscellaneous Provisions) Act 2014 also ends the practice of dual mandate, prohibiting someone being elected to the assembly who is also a member of the UK House of Commons or the Irish Dáil Éireann.[4] At the time the Act was passed, there were three such dual-members: the DUP's Sammy Wilson (MP for East Antrim and MLA for East Antrim) and Gregory Campbell (MP for East Londonderry and MLA for East Londonderry) and the SDLP's Alasdair McDonnell (MP for Belfast South and MLA for Belfast South).[5] As of October 2015, only Gregory Campbell holds a dual mandate.

Earlier dissolution

There are several circumstances in which the Assembly could be dissolved before the date scheduled by virtue of section 31(1) of the Northern Ireland Act 1998.

Dissolution motion

Under section 32 of the 1998 Act, the Assembly can be dissolved if a resolution to such an effect is passed by the Assembly, with support of 72 or more members.

Failure to elect the First or Deputy First Ministers

The Act provides that if the Assembly fails to elect either the First Minister or deputy First Minister within six weeks, an election is called. Since the Northern Ireland (St Andrews Agreement) Act 2006 this has involved the nomination to the posts by the largest party overall and the largest party in the designation which the largest party overall is not a member respectively.

New Executive Departments

It is proposed[6] that after the May 2016 Election there be a reduction in the number of ministries and departments. The amendments are:

Seat distribution

Party Designation[7] Seats won (2011) Current seats
Democratic Unionist Party Unionist 38 38
Sinn Féin Nationalist 29 29
Ulster Unionist Party Unionist 16 13
Social Democratic and Labour Party Nationalist 14 14
Alliance Party of Northern Ireland Other 8 8
Independent Unionist 1 2
Green Party in Northern Ireland Other 1 1
Traditional Unionist Voice Unionist 1 1
UKIP Unionist N/A 1
NI21 Unionist N/A 1

Candidates

Nominations are scheduled to open on 30 March 2016 for the assembly election.[8]

Not seeking re-election

Alliance

DUP

SDLP

Sinn Féin

UUP

UKIP

Opinion Polling

Date(s)
conducted 		Polling organisation/client Sample size DUPSF SDLP UUP All Others
7 May 2015General Election Results 718,51225.7% 24.5%13.9%16.0%8.6%11.3%
22 May 20142014 Local Election Results 627,77723.1%24.1%13.6%16.1%6.7%16.5%
22 May 20142014 European Election Results 626,12520.9%25.5%13.0%13.3%7.1%19.2%
Sep 2013 Lucid Talk/Belfast Telegraph N/A 29% 26% 14% 11% 10% 10%
Jan 2013 IPSOS-MORI/BBC 1,046 24% 23% 19% 13% 10% 11%
2012 Life & Times[n 1] N/A 27% 19% 21% 16% 13% 3%
5 May 2011Assembly Election Results 661,736 29.3%26.3%13.9%12.9%7.7%9.9%

Note

  1. ↑ Asked about political party support, not with reference to a specific election.

References

  1. ↑ Agenda NI - The new Northern Ireland Bill
  2. ↑ Government welcomes elections agreement - Gov.uk, 3 May 2011
  3. ↑ "Northern Ireland Assembly elections put back to 2016". BBC News Online. 2013-05-10. Retrieved 2013-05-11.
  4. 1 2 legislation.gov.uk Northern Ireland (Miscellaneous Provisions) Act 2014
  5. ↑ The new Northern Ireland Bill - Agenda NI, 2 September 2013
  6. ↑ "Departments Bill 70/11-16" (PDF). Northern Ireland Assembly. Retrieved 31 January 2016.
  7. ↑ http://www.niassembly.gov.uk/assembly-business/committees/assembly-and-executive-review/research-papers-2012/opposition-community-designation-and-dhondt/
  8. ↑ "Northern Ireland Assembly Election May 2016" (PDF). www.electoralcommission.org.uk. Retrieved 2015-12-31.
  9. ↑ http://sluggerotoole.com/2015/10/08/an-alliance-for-the-future/
  10. ↑ Anna Lo to quit NI politics over disillusionment
  11. ↑ alliance-mla-kieran-mccarthy-to-stand-down-from-assembly
  12. ↑ dup-man-moutray-to-step-down-from-the-assembly
  13. ↑ Clarke, Liam (19 November 2015). "DUP's Peter Robinson: I'm standing down within weeks". The Belfast Telegraph. Retrieved 19 November 2015.
  14. ↑ SDLPs-Dominic-Bradley-to-retire-as-MLA-next-year
  15. ↑ race-for-dallat-s-east-derry-seat
  16. ↑
  17. ↑ flanagan-fails-sinn-fe-in-reselection-test
  18. ↑ speaker-mitchel-mclaughlin-to-stand-down-from-assembly
  19. ↑ veteran-independent-councillor-alan-chambers-joins-uup
  20. ↑ sam-gardiner-misses-out-on-uup-selection-for-assembly-election
  21. ↑
  22. ↑ http://sluggerotoole.com/2015/11/22/euref-leave-campaigns-at-the-ukip-northern-ireland-conference-ukipni15/
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