Next United Kingdom general election

Next United Kingdom general election

on or before 7 May 2020

Party Leader Current seats Conservative David Cameron[n 1] 330 Labour Jeremy Corbyn 231 SNP Nicola Sturgeon[n 2] 54 Liberal Democrat Tim Farron 8 DUP Arlene Foster[n 3] 8 Sinn Féin Gerry Adams[n 4] [n 5]4 Plaid Cymru Leanne Wood[n 6] 3 SDLP Colum Eastwood[n 7] 3 UUP Mike Nesbitt[n 8] 2 UKIP Nigel Farage[n 9] 1 Green Natalie Bennett[n 10] 1 Others N/A 5 Total N/A 650

This lists parties that currently hold seats.

Incumbent Prime Minister David Cameron Conservative

The next general election in the United Kingdom is due to be held on Thursday 7 May 2020, in line with the Fixed term Parliaments Act; it may be held at an earlier date in the event of a vote of no confidence or similar exceptional circumstances.^[1] It will elect the 57th Parliament of the United Kingdom.

In UK general elections, voting takes place in 650 constituencies to elect Members of Parliament (MPs) to seats in the House of Commons, the lower house of the Parliament. The leader of the resultant government will become the Prime Minister.

Electoral system

Each parliamentary constituency of the United Kingdom elects one MP to the House of Commons using the "first past the post" system. If one party obtains a majority of seats, then that party is entitled to form the Government, with its leader as Prime Minister. If the election results in no single party having a majority, then there is a hung parliament. In this case, the options for forming the Government are either a minority government or a coalition government.^[2]

The postponed Sixth Periodic Review of Westminster constituencies is set to take place before the election, in 2018.

Date of the election

The Fixed-term Parliaments Act 2011 introduced fixed-term Parliaments to the UK, with elections scheduled every five years following from the 2015 election on 7 May 2015.^[3] This removed the ability of the monarch, acting on advice of the Prime Minister, to dissolve Parliament before its five-year maximum length, except in specific circumstances.^[3] The Bill permits early dissolution if the House of Commons votes by a supermajority of two-thirds. A government can still lose a vote of no confidence by a majority of just over 50%, requiring it to resign. Parliament will be dissolved if no new government can be formed within 14 days of a no-confidence vote.^[4]

Should these not occur, the election will take place on 7 May 2020.^[5] By Section 14 of the Electoral Registration and Administration Act 2013, the current Parliament will be dissolved 25 working days before this,^[6] which, assuming that Good Friday, Easter Monday and the first Monday in May are UK public holidays in 2020 (as they have been for many years), the date of dissolution will be Monday 30 March 2020. The Prime Minister has the power, by order made by Statutory Instrument under section 1(5) of the Fixed-term Parliaments Act 2011, to provide that the polling day is to be held up to two months later than 7 May 2020. Such a Statutory Instrument must be approved by each House of Parliament. Furthermore, individual constituencies may be forced to delay their elections. In both the 2005 and 2010 general elections, one constituency delayed its poll due to the death of a candidate.^[7]

Contesting political parties and candidates

Candidates are usually representatives of a political party, which must be registered with the Electoral Commission's Register of Political Parties. Candidates who do not belong to a registered party can use an "independent" label, or no label at all.

The Conservative Party and Labour Party have been the two biggest parties since 1922, and have supplied all UK Prime Ministers since that date. Both parties are likely to enter the election with different leaders from the 2015 election.^[8][9] David Cameron, who has been leader of the Conservative Party since 2005 and Prime Minister since 2010, announced in March 2015 that he would stand-down as Conservative Party leader at some point before the end of the 56th Parliament, though no date has been given for this.^[8] The Labour Party, who are the Official Opposition party conducted a leadership election following the resignation of Ed Miliband in the aftermath of the previous election.^[9] Jeremy Corbyn was announced as the new leader in September 2015.

While the Liberal Democrats and their predecessors had long been the 'third party' in British politics, they finished the 2015 election with fewer MPs than the Scottish National Party (SNP) and fewer votes than the United Kingdom Independence Party (UKIP).^[10] Tim Farron became the Liberal Democrat leader in July 2015 following the resignation of Nick Clegg, with an aim of rebuilding the party's representation after they lost 49 MPs in the 2015 election.^[11] The SNP, led by First Minister of Scotland Nicola Sturgeon, do not stand in all of Great Britain but won 56 of 59 Scottish seats in 2015, an increase of 50 MPs.^[12] They will likely stand in all Scottish seats again at the next election, although their role will depend upon the 2016 election to the Scottish Parliament and whether their manifesto for that election includes a pledge for a referendum for Scottish independence, following the victory for 'no' in the 2014 Scottish independence referendum.^[13] UKIP, led by Nigel Farage won 12.7% of the vote in 2015 but only gained 1 MP. As UKIP was founded with the UK's departure from the EU as a constitutional aim,^[14] their role at the next general election will be shaped by the results of the proposed referendum on the UK's membership of the EU. The referendum - included in the May 2015 Queen's Speech outlining government policy - is likely to take place in October 2016.^[15] The Green Party and Plaid Cymru were the other parties in Great Britain to return MPs at the 2015 general election, and are also likely to contest the next election along with hundreds of minor parties.

Politics in Northern Ireland is largely separate from the rest of the UK. All Northern Irish parties who returned MPs at the 2015 general election (Democratic Unionist Party (8); Sinn Féin (4); Social Democratic and Labour Party (3); Ulster Unionist Party (2)) will likely contest the next election, though the immediate priority for these and other Northern Irish parties will be the 2016 election to the Northern Ireland Assembly.^[16] Sinn Féin is likely to continue its policy of abstentionism and not take any seats won at the next general election.^[17] Sylvia Hermon, the only independent MP elected in 2015,^[18] has not announced whether she will stand in the next election.

Members of Parliament not standing for re-election

Conservative

1. Sir Simon Burns (Chelmsford), announced 8 January 2016^[19]
2. Ken Clarke (Rushcliffe), announced 6 February 2016^[20]

Labour

1. Ronnie Campbell (Blyth Valley), announced 8 May 2015^[21]

Opinion polling

UK Opinion Polling for the 2020 election including polls which started on or before 10th February 2016 and the moving average is calculated from the last ten polls.

  Conservative

  Labour

  UKIP

  Liberal Democrats

  SNP

  Greens

Inaccurate polling at the 2015 election

Polling results for the 2015 UK General Election, compared to the actual result

At the 2015 election, all major opinion polls failed to predict the election result accurately. All pollsters forecasted a hung Parliament, underestimating the Conservative Party vote by an average of 4.2 points and overestimating the Labour Party vote by an average of 2.4 points.^[22] Almost immediately following the election polling companies started making changes to polling practices, with recommendations from a review by the British Polling Council likely to see further alterations.^[23]

Footnotes

References

Elections and referendums in the United Kingdom General elections 1801 co-option 1802 1806 1807 1812 1818 1820 1826 1830 1831 1832 1835 1837 1841 1847 1852 1857 1859 1865 1868 1874 1880 1885 1886 1892 1895 1900 1906 1910 (Jan) 1910 (Dec) 1918 1922 1923 1924 1929 1931 1935 1945 1950 1951 1955 1959 1964 1966 1970 1974 (Feb) 1974 (Oct) 1979 1983 1987 1992 1997 2001 2005 2010 2015 Next Local elections 1889 1890 1892 1894 1895 1896 1897 1898 1899 1900 1901 1902 1903 1904 1905 1906 1907 1908 1909 1910 1911 1912 1913 1914 1915 1919 1920 1921 1922 1923 1924 1925 1926 1927 1928 1929 1930 1931 1932 1933 1934 1935 1936 1937 1938 1945 1946 1947 1948 1949 1950 1951 1952 1953 1954 1955 1956 1957 1958 1959 1960 1961 1962 1963 1964 1965 1966 1967 1968 1969 1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 European elections 1979 1984 1989 1994 1999 2004 2009 2014 2019 Referendums 1975 2011 EU membership referendum Elections and referendums in England (1264–1705) Great Britain (1708–1796) Ireland Northern Ireland Scotland Wales