Next Tasmanian state election
Next Tasmanian state election
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The next Tasmanian state election is scheduled to be held in or before 2018 to elect all 25 members to the House of Assembly. The first-term Liberal government, currently led by Premier of Tasmania Will Hodgman, will attempt to win a second term. The Labor opposition is led by Bryan Green, while the Greens, who lost their official parliamentary party status at the 2014 election, are led by Cassy O'Connor.
The House of Assembly uses the proportional Hare-Clark system to elect 25 members in five constituencies electing five members each. Upper house elections in the 15-seat single-member district Legislative Council use full-preferential voting, with election dates staggered and conducted separately from lower house state elections. The election will be conducted by the Tasmanian Electoral Commission.
Date
Under section 23 of the Constitution Act 1934, the House of Assembly expires four years from the return of the writs for its election, in this case 29 March 2014.[1] The Governor must issue writs of election between five and ten days thereafter.[2] Nominations must close on a date seven to 21 days after the issuance of the writ,[3] and polling day must be a Saturday between 15 and 30 days after nominations close,[4] meaning that the polling day will take place no later than Saturday 26 May 2018.
Background
The results of the previous election saw landslide victory for the Liberal Party led by Will Hodgman, defeating the incumbent Labor government led by Lara Giddings, governing with the support of the Greens. The election saw the Labor party reduced to seven seats and the Greens losing their parliamentary party status.
Polling
Polling is regularly conducted for Tasmanian state politics by Enterprise Marketing and Research Services (EMRS). Unlike other pollsters, EMRS don't "prompt" their respondents for an answer on the first request, contributing to the large "undecided" percentage. The sample size for each poll is 1,000 Tasmanian voters.[5]
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House of Assembly (lower house) polling
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Political parties |
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Lib |
ALP |
Grn |
PUP |
Ind |
Undecided |
| November 2015 |
43% |
22% |
18% |
- |
7% |
10% |
| August 2015 |
36% |
26% |
19% |
- |
8% |
11% |
| May 2015 |
41% |
26% |
17% |
- |
5% |
11% |
| February 2015 |
37% |
30% |
13% |
1% |
6% |
12% |
| November 2014 |
37% |
28% |
17% |
2% |
5% |
11% |
| August 2014 |
41% |
29% |
14% |
1% |
3% |
12% |
| May 2014 |
43% |
22% |
19% |
3% |
3% |
10% |
| 2014 election |
51.2% |
27.3% |
13.8% |
5.0% |
1.3% |
– |
| Feb 2014 |
44% |
20% |
15% |
5% |
3% |
13% |
| Polling conducted by EMRS. |
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Preferred Premier polling^
|
Liberal
Hodgman |
Labor
Green |
| November 2015 |
56% |
19% |
| August 2015 |
49% |
21% |
| May 2015 |
52% |
24% |
| February 2015 |
48% |
26% |
| November 2014 |
50% |
22% |
| August 2014 |
51% |
25% |
| May 2014 |
54% |
22% |
| 2014 election |
– |
– |
| Feb 2014 |
48% |
21%1 |
Polling conducted by EMRS.
^ Remainder were "uncommitted".
1 Lara Giddings. |
External links
References
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