Swedish general election, 2018

Swedish general election, 2018

9 September 2018

All 349 seats to the Riksdag 175 seats are needed for a majority   Leader Stefan Löfven Anna Kinberg Batra Jimmie Åkesson Party Social Democratic Moderate Sweden Democrats Alliance Löfven Cabinet The Alliance none Leader since 2012 2015 2005 Last election 113 seats, 31.0% 84 seats, 23.3% 49 seats, 12.9% Current seats 113 84 48   Leader Gustav Fridolin Åsa Romson Annie Lööf Jonas Sjöstedt Party Green Centre Left Alliance Löfven Cabinet The Alliance none Leader since 2011 2011 2012 Last election 25 seats, 6.9% 22 seats, 6.1% 21 seats, 5.7% Current seats 25 22 21   Leader Jan Björklund Ebba Busch Thor Party Liberals Christian Democrats Alliance The Alliance The Alliance Leader since 2007 2015 Last election 19 seats, 5.4% 16 seats, 4.6% Current seats 19 16

Incumbent Prime Minister Stefan Löfven Social Democratic

The next Swedish general election will be held in Sweden on 9 September 2018 to elect the members of the national law-making assembly the Riksdag (Riksdagen).^[1][2]

Electoral system

The Swedish Riksdag is made up of 349 MPs and all are elected through proportional representation on multi-member party lists that could be regional (most major parties) or national (Sweden Democrats). Each of the 29 constituencies has a set number of parliamentarians that is divided through constituency results to ensure regional representation. Then the other MPs are elected through a proportional balancing to ensure that the elected MP's accurately represent the votes of the electorate. The Swedish constitution (1974:152) 1 Ch. 4 § says that the Riksdag is responsible for taxation and making laws and the 1 Ch. 6 § says that the government is held responsible to the Riksdag. In other words this means that Sweden has parliamentarism in a constitutional monarchy - ensuring that the government is appointed by the people's representatives and the Prime Minister is therefore indirectly elected.

Incumbent parties

The Social Democratic Party (S; Socialdemokraterna) is the largest political party in the Swedish Riksdag with 113 of the 349 seats. The Social Democratic Party is the major component of the incumbent Löfven Cabinet, working with the Green Party. Its current party leader Stefan Löfven has been Prime Minister of Sweden since 3 October 2014, and has said he will seek a mandate to continue his Löfven Cabinet. He said that he intended to call for an extra general election after his cabinet's budget was voted down by the opposition, the first extra general election since 1958. However the extra general election was 'cancelled' on December 27, 2014 following a budgetary procedure agreement with the Alliance, two days before Löfven was to call it.

The Moderate Party (M; Moderaterna) is the second-largest party in the Riksdag with 84 seats. It was the largest governing party under Prime Minister Fredrik Reinfeldt from 2006 to 2014. Reinfeldt resigned as party leader after 8 years as Prime Minister. He was succeeded as party leader on 10 January 2015 by Anna Kinberg Batra. The party is involved in the Alliance alongside three other parties, which will seek to return to power together. Her decision as de facto leader to enter the budgetary procedure agreement with the left-of-centre cabinet saw sharp internal disgruntlement from some party districts. The Alliance has more MPs than the government parties, but still finds itself in opposition.

The Sweden Democrats (SD; Sverigedemokraterna) is the third-largest party in the Riksdag with 49 seats. In the 2014 general election the party increased its share of seats by 29, becoming the third-largest party. The party leader is Jimmie Åkesson, who is the longest-serving party leader. The other Riksdag parties have repeatedly stated that they will not cooperate with the Sweden Democrats in a future government. The extra general election was called following the Sweden Democrats giving their support to the oppositional Alliance budget. After the cancelled extra election, the party advertised itself as the 'only opposition party' and the following months it saw a sharp rise in the opinion polls (see below).

The Green Party (MP; Miljöpartiet) is the fourth-largest party in the Riksdag with 25 seats. The Green Party is the minor component of the Löfven Cabinet, alongside the Social Democrats. It is the only Swedish party to have two spokespersons, currently Gustav Fridolin who serves as Minister for Education and Åsa Romson who serves as Minister for the Environment and Deputy Prime Minister of Sweden. This will be the first time in Swedish history that the Green Party has had its governmental record tested at an election.

The Centre Party (C; Centerpartiet) is the fifth-largest party in the Riksdag with 22 seats. It was a part of the Reinfeldt cabinet from 2006 to 2014. The party has been led by Annie Lööf since 2011. The party is involved in the Alliance alongside three other parties which will seek to return to power together. The Centre Party was subject to public attempts by Löfven to become a cooperation party, but the party traditionally leans towards the Moderate policy positions and therefore stayed within the Alliance after the 2014 election.

The Left Party (V; Vänsterpartiet) is the sixth-largest party in the Riksdag with 21 seats. The current party leader is Jonas Sjöstedt. He has said that the Left Party seeks to participate in a future Red-Green coalition government. The party did not support the Löfven Cabinet because it was not asked to participate in his cabinet following the 2014 general election, but supported his budget that was voted down on 3 December 2014. Following the budgetary agreement the Left Party is what tips the left-of-centre minority into a larger minority than the Alliance.

The Liberals (L; Liberalerna) is the seventh-largest party in the Riksdag with 19 seats. It was a part of the Reinfeldt cabinet from 2006 to 2014. The party has been led by Jan Björklund since 2007. His leadership is being increasingly criticized within the party. The party is involved in the Alliance alongside three other parties which will seek to return to power together. Opinion polls in the year after the election suggests that the party is struggling to recapture its previous level of support. Having been in charge of the school system and integration of migrants, the party came under a lot of criticism due to falling school results and increased segregation in the immigrant-dominated suburbs.

The Christian Democrats (KD; Kristdemokraterna) has been led by Ebba Busch Thor since 2015. It is involved in the Alliance alongside three other parties which will seek to return to power together. According to opinion polls there is a risk that the Christian Democrats will fail to achieve representation in the next Riksdag. The party held on by a few ten thousand votes last time. The parliamentary presence of the Christian Democrats is seen as essential in order for the Alliance to be able to form a government.

Possible newcomer parties

The Feminist Initiative (FI; Feministiskt Initiativ) is the country's ninth-largest party and represented in the European Parliament following the 2014 European election. The party fell somewhat short of the 4% threshold to enter the Riksdag in the 2014 general election, but still got more than 3% of the vote. Led by former Left Party leader Gudrun Schyman, the party aims to enter the Riksdag in 2018; according to the opinion polls the party's popularity has been on the decline since the election, but still comfortably polling as the largest party outside the Riksdag. The party and its support base firmly sit to the far-left of the political spectrum.

Due to the 4% threshold it is difficult for smaller parties to enter the Riksdag. The Pirate Party (PP; Piratpartiet) won representation in the 2009-14 European parliament but its subsequent runs for office have been less successful. It has been mentioned in some polls as the tenth-largest party but appears to be far from having a chance to break the threshold at a domestic level.

2014 budget crisis

Prime Minister Stefan Löfven announced in the afternoon of 3 December 2014 that he intended to make the formal arrangements for calling an election on 29 December 2014—the earliest date permitted by the constitution.

The elections were called after the Social Democrat-led government of Löfven lost a vote on the budget by 182 to 153 owing to the Sweden Democrats voting with the opposition, leading to a cabinet crisis.^[3] It would have been the first extra election since 1958.^[4]

An agreement was signed on 26 December 2014 between the Social Democrats, Greens, Moderates, Centrists, Liberals and Christian Democrats, outlining a series of conditions in order to ensure political stability until at least 2022.^[5] The agreement included two main provisions:

• The PM candidate who gathers the most support will be elected. This applies to both incumbent and new PM candidates.
• A government in minority will be allowed to have its budget passed, by the abstention of opposition parties who have signed the agreement.

After negotiations between the Government and the Alliance concluded, the extra election was called off on 27 December 2014.

Opinion polls

Graphical summary

Poll results

Poll results are listed in the table below in reverse chronological order, showing the most recent first, and using the date the survey's fieldwork was done, as opposed to the date of publication. If such date is unknown, the date of publication is given instead. The highest percentage figure in each polling survey is displayed in bold, and the background shaded in the leading party's colour. In the instance that there is a tie, then no figure is shaded. The lead column on the right shows the percentage-point difference between the two parties with the highest figures. When a specific poll does not show a data figure for a party, the party's cell corresponding to that poll is shown empty. The third 'bloc' namely Sweden Democrats alone has the exact same figure for its coalition as the party's figures since it is unaligned.

Parties

Coalitions/Blocs

References

Elections and referendums in Sweden General elections 1866 1869 1872 1875 1878 1881 1884 1887 (Mar-Apr) 1887 (Aug-Sep) 1890 1893 1896 1899 1902 1905 1908 1911 1914 (Mar) 1914 (Sep) 1917 1920 1921 1924 1928 1932 1936 1940 1944 1948 1952 1956 1958 1960 1964 1968 1970 1973 1976 1979 1982 1985 1988 1991 1994 1998 2002 2006 2010 2014 2018 European elections 1995 1999 2004 2009 2014 County Council elections 2002 2006 2010 2014 Municipal elections 1991 2002 2006 2010 2014 Referendums 1922 1955 1957 1980 1994 2003