Next Conservative Party (UK) leadership election
 | |||||
|
| |||||
|
| |||||
| |||||
During the 2015 general election campaign, David Cameron, the current Leader of the Conservative Party, announced that he would not seek a third term and is therefore expected to stand down before the next general election,[1] which would trigger the next Conservative Party leadership election. Although it is not known when the election would take place, the winner would also succeed Cameron as Prime Minister of the United Kingdom, due to the Conservative Party currently being the majority party in the House of Commons.[2]
Candidates
Publicly expressed interest
As of January 2016, the following potential candidates have publicly expressed interest in running for party leader.
- Boris Johnson, Mayor of London since 2008; MP for Uxbridge and South Ruislip since 2015; MP for Henley 2001–2008[3]
- Nicky Morgan, Secretary of State for Education and Minister for Women and Equalities since 2014; MP for Loughborough since 2010.[4]
- George Osborne, First Secretary of State since 2015; Chancellor of the Exchequer since 2010; MP for Tatton since 2001[5]
Potential
As of January 2016, the following individuals have received speculation as potential leadership candidates.
- Cabinet ministers
- Stephen Crabb, Secretary of State for Wales since 2014; MP for Preseli Pembrokeshire since 2005[1]
- Chris Grayling, Leader of the House of Commons since 2015; Secretary of State for Justice 2012–2015; MP for Epsom and Ewell since 2001[6]
- Justine Greening, Secretary of State for International Development since 2012; Secretary of State for Transport 2011–2012; MP for Putney since 2005
- Jeremy Hunt, Secretary of State for Health since 2012; Secretary of State for Culture, Olympics, Media and Sport 2010–2012; MP for South West Surrey since 2005[7]
- Theresa May, Home Secretary since 2010; MP for Maidenhead since 1997[8]
- Liz Truss, Secretary of State for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs since 2014; MP for South West Norfolk since 2010[9]
- Junior ministers
- Andrea Leadsom, Minister of State at the Department of Energy and Climate Change since 2015; MP for South Northamptonshire since 2010 [10]
- Penny Mordaunt, Minister of State for the Armed Forces since 2015; MP for Portsmouth North since 2010[6]
- Priti Patel, Minister of State for Employment since 2015; MP for Witham since 2010[6]
- Dominic Raab, Parliamentary Under Secretary of State for Justice since 2015; MP for Esher and Walton since 2010[6]
- Anna Soubry, Minister of State for Small Business, Industry and Enterprise since 2015; MP for Broxtowe since 2010[6]
- Backbench MPs
- Adam Afriyie, MP for Windsor since 2005[6]
- Graham Brady, Chairman of the 1922 Committee since 2010; MP for Altrincham and Sale West since 1997[11]
- Liam Fox, Secretary of State for Defence 2010–2011; Chairman of the Conservative Party 2003–2005; MP for North Somerset since 1992[12]
- Jesse Norman, Chairman of the Culture, Media and Sport Select Committee since 2015; MP for Hereford and South Herefordshire since 2010[6]
- Owen Paterson, Secretary of State for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs 2012–2014; Secretary of State for Northern Ireland 2010–2012; MP for North Shropshire since 1997[13]
Declined
The following individuals were the focus of media speculation as being possible leadership candidates, but have ruled out a bid.
- Ruth Davidson, Leader of the Scottish Conservative Party since 2011; MSP for Glasgow since 2011[14]
- Michael Gove, Secretary of State for Justice and Lord Chancellor since 2015; Government Chief Whip 2014–15; Secretary of State for Education 2010–2014; MP for Surrey Heath since 2005[15]
- Sajid Javid, Secretary of State for Business, Innovation and Skills since 2015; Secretary of State for Culture, Media and Sport 2014–2015; MP for Bromsgrove since 2010[16]
Opinion polling
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Philip Hammond |
Jeremy Hunt |
Boris Johnson |
Theresa May |
Nicky Morgan |
George Osborne |
Other/ Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ipsos MORI/Evening Standard[17][18] | 14–17 November 2015 | 307 Conservative voters[lower-alpha 1] | ± 4% | — | — | 32% | 26% | — | 23% | 19% |
| 1,021 British residents[lower-alpha 2] | — | — | 25% | 19% | — | 11% | 45% | |||
| Ipsos MORI[19] | 19–23 September 2015 | 395 Conservative voters[lower-alpha 1] | — | — | — | 29% | 18% | — | 32% | 20% |
| 1,255 British residents[lower-alpha 2] | — | — | 27% | 17% | — | 15% | 41% | |||
| Survation/Huffington Post UK[20][21] | 21–22 September 2015 | 303 Conservative voters[lower-alpha 1] | — | 2.0% | 2.9% | 30.4% | 16.3% | 0.9% | 26.2% | 21.3% |
| 1,008 British residents[lower-alpha 2] | 1.9% | 2% | 25% | 11.2% | 2.1% | 14.6% | 43.3% | |||
References
- 1 2 Kirkup, James (25 March 2015). "By 2020, the Conservative Party leader will be... not who you expect". Daily Telegraph.
- ↑ "Election results: Conservatives win majority". BBC News. 8 May 2015.
- ↑ Rowena Mason (13 August 2015). "Boris Johnson hints at Conservative leadership vacancy from 2018". The Guardian.
- ↑ Frances Perraudin (1 October 2015). "Nicky Morgan considers standing for Tory leader when Cameron quits". The Guardian.
- ↑ Lynsey Barber (8 July 2015). "July Budget 2015: George Osborne biggest Budget winner as chancellor becomes favourite for next Tory leader". CityAM.
- 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 Craig Woodhouse (4 October 2015). "At least 20 Tories are lining up to replace Cameron". The Sun.
- ↑ "Jeremy Hunt: the next Tory leader?". The Guardian. 19 February 2014.
- ↑ Gaby Hinsliff (3 February 2015). "Can Theresa May make it to the top?". The Guardian.
- ↑ Andrew Gimson (6 March 2014). "Andrew Gimson profiles Liz Truss, seen by some as a future Tory leader". ConservativeHome.
- ↑ Jane Merrick (9 May 2015). "Election 2015: Who could replace David Cameron as leader of the Tory party?". The Independent.
- ↑ "Conservative leadership race: Who could replace David Cameron?". Daily Telegraph. 24 March 2015.
- ↑ "Liam Fox overtakes Theresa May in Tory leadership poll". The Commentator. 4 August 2015.
- ↑ Josh May (1 October 2015). "Owen Paterson develops checklist for future Tory leader candidates". PoliticsHome.
- ↑ Charlie Cooper (3 January 2016). "Next Tory Prime Minster ‘will not be George Osborne, Theresa May or Boris Johnson’". The Independent.
- ↑ Decca Aitkenhead (5 October 2012). "Michael Gove: the next Tory leader?". The Guardian.
- ↑ Owen Bennett (4 October 2015). "Watch Sajid Javid Rule Out Standing In The Tory Leadership Contest When David Cameron Quits". HuffPost UK.
- ↑ "Public confidence in George Osborne slips – but few think Labour would do a better job". Ipsos MORI. 20 November 2015.
- ↑ Joe Murphy (20 November 2015). "Boris Johnson and Theresa May overtake George Osborne in Tory race to succeed David Cameron". Evening Standard.
- ↑ "Boris Johnson most popular prospective Conservative leader". Ipsos MORI. 1 October 2015.
- ↑ "Conservative Party Conference Poll" (PDF). Survation. 5 October 2015.
- ↑ Paul Waugh (1 October 2015). "Boris Johnson Is The Public's Choice As Next Tory Leader, Huffington Post UK/Survation Poll Finds". HuffPost UK.
See also
This article is issued from Wikipedia - version of the Friday, January 29, 2016. The text is available under the Creative Commons Attribution/Share Alike but additional terms may apply for the media files.